dajo9 said:

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sycasey said:

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dajo9 said:

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sycasey said:

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The Dodgers being able to spend so much more than any other team is a general problem for the league.

It's not the reason the Giants don't win. Our front office has sucked, and the ownership doesn't actually care about winning.

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Is it a problem? The teams still playing have the 2nd, 19th, 25th, and 30th highest payroll. I don't support efforts to move more profits to owners and away from players.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2026/10/11/mlb-payrolls-2026-dodgers-rays-guardians-brewers-highest-lowest/92205306007/

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Yes, for broader reasons you want people to believe there is some degree of competitive balance.

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I grew up hearing the golden age of baseball was the 1950s when the World Series was dominated by New York teams, presumably because of higher payrolls. Nobody cares about that stuff. College football is proof.

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You're not old enough.
Are you?
Oh, wait. I misread. You grew up HEARING that.
Yes.

That Ohtani contract will saddle the Doyers for years with a mid-level talent. Love it

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE BECERRA

SBGold said:

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That Ohtani contract will saddle the Doyers for years with a mid-level talent. Love it

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE BECERRA

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If a long term heavy contract helps you win a championship, it is worth it

Interesting.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25512067-dodgers-growing-problem-shohei-ohtani

SBGold said:

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That Ohtani contract will saddle the Doyers for years with a mid-level talent. Love it

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE BECERRA

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Are you calling Ohtani a mid-level talent? He is a generational talent.

bearister said:

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SBGold said:

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That Ohtani contract will saddle the Doyers for years with a mid-level talent. Love it

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE BECERRA

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Are you calling Ohtani a mid-level talent? He is a generational talent.

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He's hella regressed. Talents can fall off quickly. It's happened

Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

dajo9 said:

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Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

I'd need to see if the high batting average team consistently wins in the postseason (or at least more than normal) to think this is some kind of "secret sauce" for playoff success. For a while people thought it was more about having a pitching staff that got strikeouts, having strong defense, and having a strong bullpen (especially the closer). But then further postseasons hurt that theory. Baseball can be pretty random in short series.

sycasey said:

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I'd need to see if the high batting average team consistently wins in the postseason (or at least more than normal) to think this is some kind of "secret sauce" for playoff success. For a while people thought it was more about having a pitching staff that got strikeouts, having strong defense, and having a strong bullpen (especially the closer). But then further postseasons hurt that theory. Baseball can be pretty random in short series.

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That's why I went back and pulled stats over 18 years

BearlySane88 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

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I dont think that measures postseason success at all. Just regular season success.

dajo9 said:

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BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

---

I dont think that measures postseason success at all. Just regular season success.

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I ran a statistical comparison using all 22 MLB postseason series from 2024 and 2025, with regular-season statistics recorded before those postseasons began.

Pythagorean win percentage predicted 72.7% of the playoff series correctly, 16 of 22. Batting average predicted 50%, 11 out of 22.

9 times both predictors were correct.
7 times only Pythagorean was correct.
2 times only BA was correct.
4 times both were incorrect.

The 2025 World Series was a particularly revealing case:
Toronto's regular-season batting average was approximately .265. LA hit approximately .253. The Dodgers nevertheless had the better Pythagorean winning percentage and won the World Series.

I'll do a deeper dive to see if this holds true for a larger sample size.

dajo9 said:

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BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

---

I dont think that measures postseason success at all. Just regular season success.

---

After analyzing every playoff series from 2008-2025, it's a fairly close outcome but Pythagorean win percentage was the better predictor.

Pythagorean winning percentage correctly predicted 59.5% of series, 100 of 168. Batting average correctly predicted 53.6% of series, 90 of 168.

When the two methods disagreed, Pythagorean winning percentage correctly picked 45 series and batting average correctly picked 35.

BearlySane88 said:

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dajo9 said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

---

I dont think that measures postseason success at all. Just regular season success.

---

After analyzing every playoff series from 2008-2025, it's a fairly close outcome but Pythagorean win percentage was the better predictor.

Pythagorean winning percentage correctly predicted 59.5% of series, 100 of 168. Batting average correctly predicted 53.6% of series, 90 of 168.

When the two methods disagreed, Pythagorean winning percentage correctly picked 45 series and batting average correctly picked 35.

---

That's a pretty good metric and I wouldn't bet against it. However I find it a bit reductive. The team that scores more points relative to it's opposition should win more games.

In terms of how you want to build a team and what strategy you want to implement, I dont think it says much.

BearlySane88 said:

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dajo9 said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

---

I dont think that measures postseason success at all. Just regular season success.

---

After analyzing every playoff series from 2008-2025, it's a fairly close outcome but Pythagorean win percentage was the better predictor.

Pythagorean winning percentage correctly predicted 59.5% of series, 100 of 168. Batting average correctly predicted 53.6% of series, 90 of 168.

When the two methods disagreed, Pythagorean winning percentage correctly picked 45 series and batting average correctly picked 35.

---

Basically what this says is that the better team (the one that scored more runs vs. what they gave up all year) wins most of the time.

sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Just for fun, baseball playoff outcomes from this point based on regular season stats for:

Lowest strikeouts per home run:
Dodgers beat Braves (these two teams are actually #1 and #2 in this stat so if the Braves win then just plug in the Braves for the Dodgers the rest of the way)
Padres beat Brewers (Brewers are in last for this metric by a good margin but they have The Miz)
Yankees beat Rays (doubtful in my mind)
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Yankees

Batting Average:
Dodgers beat Braves
Brewers beat Padres
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Brewers beat Dodgers (.001 difference)
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Brewers and Rays tied

Home Runs:
Dodgers and Braves tie???
Padres beat Brewers
Yankees beat Rays
White Sox beat Guardians
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Yankees beat White Sox
.....
Yankees beat Dodgers

Lowest Strikeouts:
Dodgers beat Braves
Padres beat Brewers
Rays beat Yankees
Guardians beat White Sox
.....
Dodgers beat Padres
Rays beat Guardians
.....
Rays beat Dodgers


I have long been a proponent that making contact and batting average is how you win in the postseason but I would have never guessed how predictive regular season batting average would be in this postseason. A perfect record from the Division Series through the World Series.

So I did some additional research:
- Over the last 18 years there was a 44% chance that the team with the highest regular season batting average played in the World Series
- Over the last 18 years there was an 89% chance that a top 5 team in regular season batting average played in the World Series

If somebody has a better regular season stat for predicting postseason success, I would like to see it.

---

I love this but I have a feeling that Pythagorean winning percentage, which measures how good a team was based on runs scored and runs allowed, is a better indicator. It measures the combined effects of hitting, defense and baserunning. I'll have to dive deeper into this later today.

---

I dont think that measures postseason success at all. Just regular season success.

---

After analyzing every playoff series from 2008-2025, it's a fairly close outcome but Pythagorean win percentage was the better predictor.

Pythagorean winning percentage correctly predicted 59.5% of series, 100 of 168. Batting average correctly predicted 53.6% of series, 90 of 168.

When the two methods disagreed, Pythagorean winning percentage correctly picked 45 series and batting average correctly picked 35.

---

Basically what this says is that the better team (the one that scored more runs vs. what they gave up all year) wins most of the time.

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Slightly more nuanced than that but more or less

oski003 said:

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bearister said:

---

SBGold said:

---

That Ohtani contract will saddle the Doyers for years with a mid-level talent. Love it

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE BECERRA

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Are you calling Ohtani a mid-level talent? He is a generational talent.

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He or she is trolling again, unfortunately.

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Flagged for trolling