dajo9 said:
wifeisafurd said:
dajo9 said:
Business investment is up because oil prices are up so oil and gas investment is up.
Same reasoning applies to 2014.
And here these stupid people think it was due to across the board capital good acquisitions on the rise. That said, this really is not corporate tax rate cuts driven yet, and seems more driven by household income increases causing higher consumer demand, which drives expansion. (Which make sense as corporations will benefit from lower rates over time, while reduced withholding took effect Jan 1).
Business investment on hot streak since Trump elected and it may keep sizzling https://on.mktw.net/2LHyXKM
Bad News For Dems: Household Income Hits All-Time High Under Trump https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/household-income-trump-economy-optimism/ via @IBDeditorials
Real Time Economics: Business Investment Soars . https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/05/15/real-time-economics-business-investment-soars- via @WSJ
Wait before declaring Trump's tax cuts a win. @Noahpinion says it might be years before we know https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-01
As for those dramatically increasing oil prices today, uh not really. Prices are hovering between 60 tp 80 dollars per barrel the last 6 months - see the chart below. In 2014 the prices were generally between 110 and 120 dollars per barrel, haven fallen from marginal higher prices in 2011 thought 2013, which somehow must correlate with the "oil prices so up" in 2014 somehow.
There you go cherrypicking data again. Here is a chart for crude oil prices which have more than doubled since their 2016 lows. Click on 5 years if the link doesn't come up that way. The image looks just like business investment.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart
Also, I read your article on Household income. Sorry to read Household median income is up only 3% in the 18 months Trump has been President (according to your source). It went up 5.2% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016 (according to the Census Bureau). Seems the trend is slowing under Trump. And, let's be honest - GDP is important but Real Household Median Income is the single most important economic measure in my opinion. By that measure, the Trump economy is deteriorating versus Obama.
There you go again. You said investment during the Trump period is due to oil and gas company investments in response to the spike in oil prices. Moreover, you said the same thing happened in 2014. So when I put a chart of oil prices up for the Trump period when investment went up that didn't show any real price increase, you accuse me of cherry picking. And then you put a link to a ten-year chart that shows there was no run up in oil prices in 2014, and in fact, prices had slipped, on average, marginally from the prior years. Why don't we just look at oil prices in the first year of Obama's second term because that must mean something?
All of which is academic, as energy companies bring marginal facilities on and off line quickly as prices change, none of which registers in investment numbers. What you need to do is look at upstream investment by oil companies, which deals with future expectations of prices. Then you also choose to look at just one component of private investment. The article about wages was provided because of the reference to household spending going-up which is what driving investment (as opposed to oil investment), but notwithstanding my lead on the post, you missed that and went into a tangent about wages; to wit: "And, let's be honest - GDP is important but Real Household Median Income is the single most important economic measure in my opinion." I'm glad you added in your opinion. Personally, I think we should use a happiness measure to determine economic growth. Or why not a green measure, since this is California? But let's be honest, economists look primarily at GDP and then some other indicators, none of which is Real Household Median Income:
What Are the Best Measurements of Economic Growth?
http://www.investopedia.?com/ask/answers/032515/what-are-best-measurements-economic-growth.asputm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareurlbuttons via @investopedia
Leading economic indicators are statistics that predict what will happen in the economy. They identify future business cycle changes. Read More:
https://www.thebalance.com/leading-economic-indicators-definition-list-of-top-5-3305862?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareurlbuttonsLearn about economic indicators including prices, federal finance, and international trade, and why are they important. Read More:
https://www.thoughtco.com/beginners-guide-to-economic-indicators-1145901?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareurlbuttonsThese six facts tell you how the economy is really doing right now. They also preview which way the economy is going in the near future. Read More:
https://www.thebalance.com/how-is-the-economy-doing-3306046?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareurlbuttons.
And from the FED:
:
https://www.richmondfed.org:443/en/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicatorsI'm sure there is something you can find in these articles to try to move the conversation away from your Trumpian (this should become a verb for making things up) assertion that oil and gas investment is the reason for increases in investment under Trump due to non-existing increases in oil prices recently and in 2014. Maybe one article mentions something from that first golden year in Obama's second term that could be helpful. But using the top leading indicator GDP, "the average of the annual real growth rates of the past two administrations was 1.9%. That included several years that covered the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. It is true that many economists and the FED are projecting the economy will grow by 3% in 2018. That would be the highest since 2005, when the economy grew by 3.5%. " Quoting : CNN, July 27, 2018. By that measure, the economy is doing well.
Do you actually have any data you can point to showing that increased oil and gas investment was responsible for the incase in investment? BTW, private domestic investment includes 3 types of investment, only one category of which oil and gas investment would impact:
- Non-residential investment: Expenditures by firms on capital such as tools, machinery, and factories.
- Residential Investment: Expenditures on residential structures and residential equipment that is owned by landlords and rented to tenants.
- Change in inventories: The change of firm inventories in a given period.
I'm still waiting.