Election Night Thread

38,232 Views | 332 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by golden sloth
wifeisafurd
How long do you want to ignore this user?
dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

dog-with-attitude-on-the-beach-funny-photo-gm496158583-41359322
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Looks like Russia's Favorite Congressman is probably going down.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/election-results-2018-dana-rohrabacher-harvey-rouda/1917374002/
blungld
How long do you want to ignore this user?
kjkbear said:

dajo. Early in the evening you announced from New Jersey that you were sure this was the biggest wave election of your lifetime. It wasn't. Occasionally you make incorrect predictions . This was one. The house flipped . the voters got it right. But the flip was pretty ordinary for a midterm.
Look at the actual vote tallies. More of a wave then it looks like with gerrymandering and what was up for re-election.

We are in such bad need of voting reform and a rebalancing of influence. It is patently absurd this disproportionate representation of rural white America. 20% of Senate represents 80% of America? Republicans throw the rural states a little red meat wedge social issues (that they actually do not care about) and can make URBAN policy (tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations) by exploiting fear and religiosity of rural America. Governing the country wasn't supposed to be a trick or con.

Plus, remove all financial influence.
dajo9
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

American Vermin
Another Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

dog-with-attitude-on-the-beach-funny-photo-gm496158583-41359322
An obituary for old Orange County, dead at age 128
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

dog-with-attitude-on-the-beach-funny-photo-gm496158583-41359322
I'd just like to point out what you said about Rohrabacher's chances a year ago.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/76744/replies/1423064


Anarchistbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The big wave was 2008-2016 when the Dems lost the House, the Senate the Presidency, 1000 seats nationwide and became a marginal national party. In that context last night was a good comeback. They won the People's House, became relevant again in the Midwest, and gained seats and legislators all over the country.

But it is also true Trump had a good night. He went out on a limb for the Senate and helped carry the day in Mizzou, Indiana, Texas, Florida, Tenn,( thanks Taylor Swift), etc. Winning Florida and Ohio state houses was also big for 2020. And he also pushed turnout.

Although the election was all about Trump the nationalization of the race actually helped in the Senate plus the Dems had lousy candidates. In the House, however, the Dems had better candidates.
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Anarchistbear said:

The big wave was 2008-2016 when the Dems lost the House, the Senate the Presidency, 1000 seats nationwide and became a marginal national party. In that context last night was a good comeback. They won the People's House, became relevant again in the Midwest, and gained seats and legislators all over the country.

But it is also true Trump had a good night. He went out on a limb for the Senate and helped carry the day in Mizzou, Indiana, Texas, Florida, Tenn,( thanks Taylor Swift), etc. Winning Florida and Ohio state houses was also big for 2020. And he also pushed turnout.

Although the election was all about Trump the nationalization of the race actually helped in the Senate plus the Dems had lousy candidates. In the House, however, the Dems had better candidates.
What Trump did manage to do was keep Republican enthusiasm high in rural areas. Since many of the Democratic Senate losses were in heavily rural states, that clearly helped the GOP there.

However, House battlegrounds were mostly in educated suburban districts, and Trump did NOT help there.

Also, you are correct to point out that despite some high-profile disappointments like Florida (are they ever not disappointing?), Democrats did win control over a lot of state governments, or break some aspect of Republican control. This was the canary in the coal mine for Democrats in 2010, and may well be for Republicans now. Gotta to build the farm system before you can contend for the title.
Another Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
sycasey said:

Looks like Russia's Favorite Congressman is probably going down.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/election-results-2018-dana-rohrabacher-harvey-rouda/1917374002/
The Russians like Rohrabacher so much they gave him his own code name. The FBI also warned him in 2012 that he should distance himself from the Russians, that they were trying to use him, and he just laughed. Anyhoo, congressional Dems are set to release info on Rohrabacher and Russia and the NRA. Could get very interesting. By coincidence, the NRA only spend half of what it usually does on midterms...suggesting the Russkies cut off their funding.
kjkbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Scoreboard. That's it for last night. The next election is two years away. No new districts will be carved out or redone before 2020. Yes, there were other undercurrents at play last night. I like that the Democrats elected a lot of young candidates. Other than the youth issue, which is big enough, the other issues may or may not matter in two years. For last night, it still comes down to Scoreboard. I would like to see the Democrats replace Pelosi. That could bring actual change. Old does not necessarily mean most capable or effective.
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
kjkbear said:

Scoreboard. That's it for last night. The next election is two years away. No new districts will be carved out or redone before 2020. Yes, there were other undercurrents at play last night. I like that the Democrats elected a lot of young candidates. Other than the youth issue, which is big enough, the other issues may or may not matter in two years. For last night, it still comes down to Scoreboard. I would like to see the Democrats replace Pelosi. That could bring actual change. Old does not necessarily mean most capable or effective.
Looking ahead to the next generation of politics, Republicans need to be nervous about their splits with younger voters:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

18-29 years old - +35 D
30-44 years old - +19 D

It wasn't any better for them during the Obama years. Eventually this will be the dominant generation.
B.A. Bearacus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
More excursions in unshared reality and lying and not giving a fuuck.



Daniel Dale: "RIP imaginary middle-class tax cut: Trump says he doesn't have the votes in the Senate for his imaginary middle-class tax cut."
Another Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Pink Wave happened last night and I think it continues into the future. Dems created a talent base, pretty quickly. On top of that, two Muslim American women and two Native American women won congressional seats, a first. The GOP woman problem just got worse.

Democrats won women's vote for Congress by the largest margin seen in midterm exit polls

Record number of women heading to Congress
blungld
How long do you want to ignore this user?
B.A. Bearacus said:

More excursions in unshared reality and lying and not giving a fuuck.



Daniel Dale: "RIP imaginary middle-class tax cut: Trump says he doesn't have the votes in the Senate for his imaginary middle-class tax cut."
We will have to keep a keen eye on that great middle class tax cut and the caravan the next few weeks now that the midterm is over and Trump can give those two things (that were SOOOOOOO important) his full attention. I am sure there will be a lot of action and a lot in the news now about those two things...oh, and saving the preexisting condition.

Who are the stooges that fall for this BS?
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bearister said:

Mattis leads military coup to depose tRump.


Where do I sign?
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is not an O.C. district, but it probably has similar demographics. Democrats likely to pick it up with a Millennial woman candidate.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Los-Angeles-County-Katie-Hill-Steve-Knight-Election-Results-Califronia-Congress-499931932.html

So . . . not a sweep, but Republican losses in former SoCal strongholds continue to mount.
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Honestly, I spent election night in front of the tv knitting my first yarn thing ever. My daughter taught me how. We are making pink pussie hats!










Another Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Women voted something like 59% Democrat vs. 39% GOP last night. Higher among educated women, even higher among single women.

Going forward I don't see how the GOP close that gap given women voting was also backed up by a record number of women entering congress.

The other big demographic take away, non-whites voted Democrat 75% to 25% GOP. As the demographics of this country continue to move towards diversity, a non-white majority in 2035, this is significant.

concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Totally.
Last gasp of white majority screaming out in fear.

But I thought it was 2045, not 2035.

My pink hat is nearly done. I think I'll make a dozen to pass out as xmas gifts!
wifeisafurd
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The predictions of the big blue wave on this board (complete with pictures), and the pathetic rationals and excuses for the mixed outcomes yesterday, leaving what appear to be the typical mid-terms adjustment is just so typical. My favorite cement of the night was the tweet from some air head actress: "Beto lost, oh well, he should run for President."

Checking in with reality for a minute, NPR noted that the majority of flipped congressional seats were in Districts that voted for Obama and were Democratic, and then voted for Trump and became GOP. This they said has several implications, the first being that the change in allegiances reflects dissatisfaction with whoever is the current President, which seem to be the norm with new Presidents and their first mid-terms (there are exceptions, like the mid-terms for Bush no. 2 were right after 9/11 when he had strong national support). But Trump, Obama, Clinton, and on had their Congress change on them in mid-terms. The other aspect is that there are so few districts that really determine who controls the House.

The other thing that is curious was the lack of the blue wave in the OC Districts that were supposed to flip. In Knight's old district that was supposed to go blue easily due to increased hispanic population, Assembly woman Kim upset her Hispanic Dem opponent, Walters also probably will hold on despite polls to the contrary, and Rohrbacker is in peril, thought the vote is way too close to say for sure (he is losing). If you count Isa's district which was gerrymandered [excuse alert!!!) to include the isolated liberal area of coastal San Diego, but includes a smaller portion of the OC, was turned by a Democrat. Issa and Royce, whose districts chose Hillary Clinton over Trump, had announced their retirements in time to avoid what was supposed to be daunting reelection fights.
golden sloth
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

dog-with-attitude-on-the-beach-funny-photo-gm496158583-41359322
In 2008 California approved the use of an independent commission to redistrict California. Therefore, California does not gerrymander.


Quote:

In California, an independent commission draws both congressional and state legislative district lines. Established in 2008 by ballot initiative, the commission comprises 14 members: five Democrats, five Republicans, and four belonging to neither party. A panel of state auditors selects the pool of nominees from which the commissioners are appointed. This pool comprises 20 Democrats, 20 Republicans, and 20 belonging to neither party. The majority and minority leaders of both chambers of the state legislature may each remove two members from each of the aforementioned groups. The first eight commission members are selected at random from the remaining nominees. These first eight comprise three Democrats, three Republicans, and two belonging to neither party. The first eight commissioners appoint the remaining six, which must include two Democrats, two Republicans, and two belonging to neither party.[url=https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_California#cite_note-caloyola-34][34][/url]
[url=https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_California#cite_note-caloyola-34][/url]https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_California
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

The predictions of the big blue wave on this board (complete with pictures), and the pathetic rationals and excuses for the mixed outcomes yesterday, leaving what appear to be the typical mid-terms adjustment is just so typical. My favorite cement of the night was the tweet from some air head actress: "Beto lost, oh well, he should run for President."
I'm sorry, but an election in which one party wins 30+ seats and was roughly +7 in national vote share (estimated, accounting for the California vote yet to come in) is indeed a wave. It wasn't as huge as some had hoped, but it's a wave election indeed.

golden sloth
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I actually agree with your overarching premise. I don't know how democrats can feel optimistic about 2020 given what unfolded last night. They won the battle, but are still losing the war. Unless there is an economic decline (which is somewhat likely), I don't see Democrats taking the presidency, maybe the senate (due entirely to the map, not to their own skills [I also don't have much confidence]), and maybe the house remains.
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
golden sloth said:

I actually agree with your overarching premise. I don't know how democrats can feel optimistic about 2020 given what unfolded last night. They won the battle, but are still losing the war. Unless there is an economic decline (which is somewhat likely), I don't see Democrats taking the presidency, maybe the senate (due entirely to the map, not to their own skills [I also don't have much confidence]), and maybe the house remains.

In economic theory, inflating the economy thru excess monetary or fiscal policies would result in inflation, which would in turn erode the economy and stock market as a whole.

However, we've been living thru a fairly strange era, by my reasoning, in that we have not yet seen massive inflation. For we've been running massive deficits for a decade now, along with historically low inflation and interest rates.

What gives?

If China stopped buying our T-Bills, bye-bye Trump.

Another Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The war isn't over yet, not until Bob Mueller has his say, drops the hammer. He's been quiet during the midterms but they're over now. Looks like he's going to indict Don Jr. It was also reported Mueller isn't bothering with obstruction of justice charges, instead going after RED MEAT, i.e., Russkie money and Trump.

The Dems majority in the house gives Mueller much needed cover. If Trump fries Mueller, they can put on a show, saying they'll have a televised hearing with Mueller. That's directed at the reality TV guy.

Remember Watergate took two years to unbury. Mueller is at 18 months or so.

sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
golden sloth said:

I actually agree with your overarching premise. I don't know how democrats can feel optimistic about 2020 given what unfolded last night. They won the battle, but are still losing the war. Unless there is an economic decline (which is somewhat likely), I don't see Democrats taking the presidency, maybe the senate (due entirely to the map, not to their own skills [I also don't have much confidence]), and maybe the house remains.
I wouldn't be overwhelmingly optimistic, but if you just extrapolate the results in states from last night you'd wind up with Democrats winning the Electoral College by taking back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. You'd also see Florida and Arizona at near 50/50. It was pretty high-turnout, where Trump's base and the Dem base both showed up, so a decent-ish proxy for a Presidential year.

Anyway, nothing is guaranteed, but the path is there. As always, lots depends on the candidate.
Anarchistbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Clinton not being on the ballot helps a lot. Also maybe some of the 50% of the electorate that didn't vote last night will be so moved. I also expect there will be three formidable candidates.
dajo9
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

The predictions of the big blue wave on this board (complete with pictures), and the pathetic rationals and excuses for the mixed outcomes yesterday, leaving what appear to be the typical mid-terms adjustment is just so typical. My favorite cement of the night was the tweet from some air head actress: "Beto lost, oh well, he should run for President."

Checking in with reality for a minute, NPR noted that the majority of flipped congressional seats were in Districts that voted for Obama and were Democratic, and then voted for Trump and became GOP. This they said has several implications, the first being that the change in allegiances reflects dissatisfaction with whoever is the current President, which seem to be the norm with new Presidents and their first mid-terms (there are exceptions, like the mid-terms for Bush no. 2 were right after 9/11 when he had strong national support). But Trump, Obama, Clinton, and on had their Congress change on them in mid-terms. The other aspect is that there are so few districts that really determine who controls the House.

The other thing that is curious was the lack of the blue wave in the OC Districts that were supposed to flip. In Knight's old district that was supposed to go blue easily due to increased hispanic population, Assembly woman Kim upset her Hispanic Dem opponent, Walters also probably will hold on despite polls to the contrary, and Rohrbacker is in peril, thought the vote is way too close to say for sure (he is losing). If you count Isa's district which was gerrymandered [excuse alert!!!) to include the isolated liberal area of coastal San Diego, but includes a smaller portion of the OC, was turned by a Democrat. Issa and Royce, whose districts chose Hillary Clinton over Trump, had announced their retirements in time to avoid what was supposed to be daunting reelection fights.
Denial
American Vermin
golden sloth
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Another Bear said:

The war isn't over yet, not until Bob Mueller has his say, drops the hammer. He's been quiet during the midterms but they're over now. Looks like he's going to indict Don Jr. It was also reported Mueller isn't bothering with obstruction of justice charges, instead going after RED MEAT, i.e., Russkie money and Trump.

The Dems majority in the house gives Mueller much needed cover. If Trump fries Mueller, they can put on a show, saying they'll have a televised hearing with Mueller. That's directed at the reality TV guy.

Remember Watergate took two years to unbury. Mueller is at 18 months or so.


I'm not entirely sure this is going to change anything. The hardcore 40% Trump base will definitely not care, and continue to deliver the rural states and districts in any election. The democratic majority will care, but has no power to do anything based on not having the Senate, and being marginalized via the electoral college. The Republicans in congress next session are far more Trump-like than the current session, meaning more division, more posturing, more blaming, more disinformation, more minions to do his bidding (like Nunes). America is going to be more polarized in two years, and as the polarization comes, the blind acceptance of your tribe.

I am also not sure if the Democratic House will be able to uncover and reveal the truth about Trump to the American people. Trump has more minions now and he will use any means necessary to get what he wants, including obstructing House investigations at every turn.

Again, I'm not sure catching Trump red-handed will do anything.
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
dajo9 said:

wifeisafurd said:

The predictions of the big blue wave on this board (complete with pictures), and the pathetic rationals and excuses for the mixed outcomes yesterday, leaving what appear to be the typical mid-terms adjustment is just so typical. My favorite cement of the night was the tweet from some air head actress: "Beto lost, oh well, he should run for President."

Checking in with reality for a minute, NPR noted that the majority of flipped congressional seats were in Districts that voted for Obama and were Democratic, and then voted for Trump and became GOP. This they said has several implications, the first being that the change in allegiances reflects dissatisfaction with whoever is the current President, which seem to be the norm with new Presidents and their first mid-terms (there are exceptions, like the mid-terms for Bush no. 2 were right after 9/11 when he had strong national support). But Trump, Obama, Clinton, and on had their Congress change on them in mid-terms. The other aspect is that there are so few districts that really determine who controls the House.

The other thing that is curious was the lack of the blue wave in the OC Districts that were supposed to flip. In Knight's old district that was supposed to go blue easily due to increased hispanic population, Assembly woman Kim upset her Hispanic Dem opponent, Walters also probably will hold on despite polls to the contrary, and Rohrbacker is in peril, thought the vote is way too close to say for sure (he is losing). If you count Isa's district which was gerrymandered [excuse alert!!!) to include the isolated liberal area of coastal San Diego, but includes a smaller portion of the OC, was turned by a Democrat. Issa and Royce, whose districts chose Hillary Clinton over Trump, had announced their retirements in time to avoid what was supposed to be daunting reelection fights.
Denial
I did enjoy the criticism of liberals for focusing on their favorable results, followed by two paragraphs of parsing exactly which districts the Democrats did and did not win.

The truth is, it was a pretty broad win in the House. Pickups in states across the board, in both Romney-Clinton districts and Obama-Trump districts. Not as massive as some had hoped, but still a comfortable win that was called early in the night (by Fox News, no less!).

Republicans have done well in the Senate, but given the map that was certainly possible even on a good Democratic night. If all the Senate seats had been up it might not have been so good for them.
wifeisafurd
How long do you want to ignore this user?
sycasey said:

wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

dog-with-attitude-on-the-beach-funny-photo-gm496158583-41359322
I'd just like to point out what you said about Rohrabacher's chances a year ago.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/76744/replies/1423064



The problem with putting the thread in was I'd just like to point out what you said about Royce's seat. It works both ways. This points out the problem is that a year ago was eternity in political years, and things changed (particularly, this was an anti-Trump/Russia vote that resulted in Rohrbacker's very narrow loss, while the Royce seat problem had to do with Asians outvoting Latinos). Hard to predict without a crystal ball. Might also say that predictions on this board (and polls) saying OC was turning all blue didn't come true either, and the wave concept really didn't seem to apply.

I'm assuming I get the same number of likes, since we both blew it. .
sycasey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

sycasey said:

wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Democrats win Senate contests 20-13 is today's great headline in the Little Big Horn Express.
People Who Hate Democrats, Continue to Hate Democrats

News at eleven.
From NPR last night: The most interesting aspect is that the majority of seats flipped went to Dems when Obama won the "gerrymandered" [my add] district, went Republican when Trump took the District, and now went back in mid-terms. Probably a referendum on Trump, but that will become clearer when he is on the ballot in 2 years. Locally, in the "gerrymandered" districts in the OC, the great blue waive sweep doesn't look to have materialized. Levin took Issa's old seat on the strength of San Diego county, Walters appears to be holding her seat, the GOP surprised in North County (Asians vote in in greater numbers than Hispanics), and Rohrbacker probably is losing. A net gain of 1 vote rather than the expected 4 (note Walters and Rohrbacker races have not been called). (I would call the Rohrbacker a shift in political view rather than tied to Trump). In any event, this looks like a fairly typical mid-term, despite all the excuse making on this Board. The predicted Great Blue Wave looks more like this:

dog-with-attitude-on-the-beach-funny-photo-gm496158583-41359322
I'd just like to point out what you said about Rohrabacher's chances a year ago.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/76744/replies/1423064



The problem with putting the thread in was I'd just like to point out what you said about Royce's seat. It works both ways. This points out the problem is that a year ago was eternity in political years, and things changed (particularly, this was an anti-Trump/Russia vote that resulted in Rohrbacker's very narrow loss, while the Royce seat problem had to do with Asians outvoting Latinos). Hard to predict without a crystal ball. Might also say that predictions on this board (and polls) saying OC was turning all blue didn't come true either, and the wave concept really didn't seem to apply.

I'm assuming I get the same number of likes, since we both blew it. .
I did specifically say that Rohrabacher's district was more likely to flip.
kjkbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Replace Pelosi. Almost no one under 50 wants an ancient partisan speaker of the house, except a few on this board.
Anarchistbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ain't no magic bullet getting rid of Trump. Beat him in 2020, that's it.
wifeisafurd
How long do you want to ignore this user?
sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

wifeisafurd said:

The predictions of the big blue wave on this board (complete with pictures), and the pathetic rationals and excuses for the mixed outcomes yesterday, leaving what appear to be the typical mid-terms adjustment is just so typical. My favorite cement of the night was the tweet from some air head actress: "Beto lost, oh well, he should run for President."

Checking in with reality for a minute, NPR noted that the majority of flipped congressional seats were in Districts that voted for Obama and were Democratic, and then voted for Trump and became GOP. This they said has several implications, the first being that the change in allegiances reflects dissatisfaction with whoever is the current President, which seem to be the norm with new Presidents and their first mid-terms (there are exceptions, like the mid-terms for Bush no. 2 were right after 9/11 when he had strong national support). But Trump, Obama, Clinton, and on had their Congress change on them in mid-terms. The other aspect is that there are so few districts that really determine who controls the House.

The other thing that is curious was the lack of the blue wave in the OC Districts that were supposed to flip. In Knight's old district that was supposed to go blue easily due to increased hispanic population, Assembly woman Kim upset her Hispanic Dem opponent, Walters also probably will hold on despite polls to the contrary, and Rohrbacker is in peril, thought the vote is way too close to say for sure (he is losing). If you count Isa's district which was gerrymandered [excuse alert!!!) to include the isolated liberal area of coastal San Diego, but includes a smaller portion of the OC, was turned by a Democrat. Issa and Royce, whose districts chose Hillary Clinton over Trump, had announced their retirements in time to avoid what was supposed to be daunting reelection fights.
Denial
I did enjoy the criticism of liberals for focusing on their favorable results, followed by two paragraphs of parsing exactly which districts the Democrats did and did not win.

The truth is, it was a pretty broad win in the House. Pickups in states across the board, in both Romney-Clinton districts and Obama-Trump districts. Not as massive as some had hoped, but still a comfortable win that was called early in the night (by Fox News, no less!).

Republicans have done well in the Senate, but given the map that was certainly possible even on a good Democratic night. If all the Senate seats had been up it might not have been so good for them.
Yes, this just in, NPR is wrong. it was false news, Minority of flipped districts means pretty broad (or maybe even perky broad, or cute broad).

I discussed the OC districts since everyone her was talking about how they all would flip, Let's get another headline, "Dems dominate in OC by gaining zero net seats" (assuming Levin's district is considered a SD seat given the majority of voters live in San Diego).

The problem with your prior expectations (and those of the Dems) is when you achieve results that only mirror the expectations for a mid-term election, you look like you lost. I do agree the Senate results are misleading given who was running.

You have a President that is a public relations mess and scary on the international front, and this is the best the Dems got?
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.