hanky1 said:
The curve is so flat, hospital workers are getting laid off. I mean....mass layoffs.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-victim-americas-largest-health-systems/story?id=70317683
https://www.kqed.org/science/1963504/flattening-the-curve-bought-california-time-to-prepare-for-future-surgeEastern Oregon Bear said:He doesn't know enough statistics and math to interpret a graph with a logarithmic scale.sycasey said:hanky1 said:What is the point of the lockdown if the curve is beyond flat? What is the scientific point?sycasey said:hanky1 said:
I don't understand why this is so difficult for people to follow. The narrative has changed and if you don't understand why people are furious then you have been asleep at the wheel. Let's review:
1. The CDC says 2 months ago that most of us will get COVID. It's on the CDCs own website and has been widely cited by scientist.
2. The lockdown was about "flattening the curve"...Preventing hospitals from getting overwhelmed which could lead to more deaths.
3. The lockdown WAS NOT about preventing the spread of COVID. It was about slowing it down to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed. The CDC's own website says most of us will get it...it is inevitable. Lockdown or not, it doesn't matter. Most of us are getting it.
4. It turns out that ICU beds never even came close to the capacity that was estimated EVEN WITH THE LOCKDOWN. Not even close. You can find this data yourself on the CA DOH website.
5. With the "flattening the curve" narrative now debunked, the story has now changed to "lockdown until we find the cure".
6. "Flattening the curve" has a definitive timeline. "Finding the cure" does not.
7. There is no telling how long it will take to find a cure. No telling how long you will be in house prison.
8. Reread #1 and #3 again.
Wait, who is arguing for lockdown until there is a cure? Which officials?
There is no other conclusion to draw from the current lockdown other than either 1) officials are delaying to wait for the cure or 2) people are just ruled by their fear and making completely irrational decisions...not based on science but based on fear.
Where is the curve flat? How did you make that determination?
..oh, and this little thing called less people dying.hanky1 said:
Literally the entire point we were sold on the lockdown was to prevent ICU beds from overcapacity and overwhelming the healthcare system. That is the entire point.
Less people did die. But explain the logic of still being locked down now after less people died and the hospitals weren't overwhelmed. We've bought time. Now that we've bought time and are better prepared, why still continue the so-called non-lockdown lockdown.blungld said:..oh, and this little thing called less people dying.hanky1 said:
Literally the entire point we were sold on the lockdown was to prevent ICU beds from overcapacity and overwhelming the healthcare system. That is the entire point.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/ten_million_people_are_locked_down_at_the_whim_of_a_very_wellpaid_sjw_doctor.htmlAunBear89 said:
Because the virus is highly contagious. And a person can be asymptomatic and still spread. And the more people that catch the virus, the more people will die from it.
But you're probably safe. So get your nails done, get a haircut, go to a crowded bar on Karaoke Night - cuz you don't have it. Until you do.
LMK5 said:
If everyone was truly honest about their opinions on gradually reopening or not, they would admit that their current economic situation materially biases their viewpoint. Everyone who thinks that because they are fully-employed today, or collecting a generous unemployment check today, or is being kept afloat by PPP, and is convinced their situation will remain that way, is being short-sighted. The typical American is not very good at looking 6 months ahead. Even state workers are going to get hit with a 10% cut as a first strike. Nobody's immune. Many VPs have been sent packing at my facility. Lots of lawyers and medical personnel, once thought unexpendable, are also getting laid off.
Beware of policies enacted and promoted by people who have zero prospect of being economically affected by said policies.
All essential employees are required to work. I am required to report every single day and I do. My company is taking reasonable precautions and so am I. We each have a certain amount of--and here's that dirty word again--responsibility. Unemployment benefits are so generous right now that many small employers have no hope of getting their employees to come to work, ask any restaurateur. This of course flies in direct opposition to the PPP program. It's a typical bureaucratic screw-up. Unemployment benefits are so generous they would make an AOC devotee blush LOL.dimitrig said:LMK5 said:
If everyone was truly honest about their opinions on gradually reopening or not, they would admit that their current economic situation materially biases their viewpoint. Everyone who thinks that because they are fully-employed today, or collecting a generous unemployment check today, or is being kept afloat by PPP, and is convinced their situation will remain that way, is being short-sighted. The typical American is not very good at looking 6 months ahead. Even state workers are going to get hit with a 10% cut as a first strike. Nobody's immune. Many VPs have been sent packing at my facility. Lots of lawyers and medical personnel, once thought unexpendable, are also getting laid off.
Beware of policies enacted and promoted by people who have zero prospect of being economically affected by said policies.
Of course it does, which is why it is sickening to see Republicans essentially forcing people back to work by eliminating their unemployment! If I was desperate I'd want to get back to work, too.
If Trump and Mitch weren't so evil they would continue to allow people who were still uncomfortable with going into the office to survive instead of forcing them back into the salt mines. However, they have no problem handing billions out to poorly managed corporations under the auspices of saving jobs - except that they didn't actually require the companies receiving the money to retain employees.
Except the plan is not to continue it indefinitely. It's to phase in re-openings in stages over the course of a month.Matthew Patel said:Less people did die. But explain the logic of still being locked down now after less people died and the hospitals weren't overwhelmed. We've bought time. Now that we've bought time and are better prepared, why still continue the so-called non-lockdown lockdown.blungld said:..oh, and this little thing called less people dying.hanky1 said:
Literally the entire point we were sold on the lockdown was to prevent ICU beds from overcapacity and overwhelming the healthcare system. That is the entire point.
Right now is the time to start phasing it it. It's been that time for some time. Explain why it's not.sycasey said:Except the plan is not to continue it indefinitely. It's to phase in re-openings in stages over the course of a month.Matthew Patel said:Less people did die. But explain the logic of still being locked down now after less people died and the hospitals weren't overwhelmed. We've bought time. Now that we've bought time and are better prepared, why still continue the so-called non-lockdown lockdown.blungld said:..oh, and this little thing called less people dying.hanky1 said:
Literally the entire point we were sold on the lockdown was to prevent ICU beds from overcapacity and overwhelming the healthcare system. That is the entire point.
The plan, of course, could change if there are more spikes in infections, but I think most people would agree with that.
You realize that it has literally already started in some parts of the state, right?Garou said:Right now is the time to start phasing it it. It's been that time for some time. Explain why it's not.sycasey said:Except the plan is not to continue it indefinitely. It's to phase in re-openings in stages over the course of a month.Matthew Patel said:Less people did die. But explain the logic of still being locked down now after less people died and the hospitals weren't overwhelmed. We've bought time. Now that we've bought time and are better prepared, why still continue the so-called non-lockdown lockdown.blungld said:..oh, and this little thing called less people dying.hanky1 said:
Literally the entire point we were sold on the lockdown was to prevent ICU beds from overcapacity and overwhelming the healthcare system. That is the entire point.
The plan, of course, could change if there are more spikes in infections, but I think most people would agree with that.
AunBear89 said:
Can we say "oops" when you, or someone you care about, contracts Covid-19? And becomes very ill and/or dies? It will be soooo funny making light of a tragedy, cuz that's your thing, right?
It was going to happen eventually. People can only store so many packs of TP in their basements.hanky1 said:sycasey said:At least with your other "oops" posts I can see what point you're trying to make, even if I disagree.hanky1 said:
Oops
Here I really have no idea what this is supposed to mean.
I just thought it was funny seeing full racks of toilet paper again. Nature is healing.
sycasey said:It was going to happen eventually. People can only store so many packs of TP in their basements.hanky1 said:sycasey said:At least with your other "oops" posts I can see what point you're trying to make, even if I disagree.hanky1 said:
Oops
Here I really have no idea what this is supposed to mean.
I just thought it was funny seeing full racks of toilet paper again. Nature is healing.
Garou said:sycasey said:It was going to happen eventually. People can only store so many packs of TP in their basements.hanky1 said:sycasey said:At least with your other "oops" posts I can see what point you're trying to make, even if I disagree.hanky1 said:
Oops
Here I really have no idea what this is supposed to mean.
I just thought it was funny seeing full racks of toilet paper again. Nature is healing.
Orange County tracts cases - not "active" cases. The case total actually includes dead people - they are far from active. :-)golden sloth said:Orange County has nearly 4,000 active cases which is second highest in the state as of today, and had an additional 200 cases diagnosed just today. I would not classify that as 'virtually no covid'.BearGoggles said:I'm not conflating. The requirements are the requirements. And the requirements are impossible for a place like OC - with virtually no COVID - to meet.Unit2Sucks said:I could be wrong but I believe you are conflating issues. The current standard is that in order for a county to advance from early stage 2 (where the state is as a whole) to late stage 2 with relaxed standards if they meet certain criteria and can attest to that. See here for more details as to what the variance permits.BearGoggles said:We are currently in "early stage 2." We can't progress until we have no deaths for 14 days which, in any decent sized county, means a cure. Until then, no restaurants, no gyms, no haircuts/salons, no leisure/tourism travel, no shopping (other than curbside), and shockingly, no religious services, etc. And businesses operate with extreme limitations (i.e., partial staffing, etc.). No social gatherings.sycasey said:BearGoggles said:Here is the official County-by-County guidance for moving ahead in stage 2: https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap-counties/ It requires:sycasey said:hanky1 said:
I don't understand why this is so difficult for people to follow. The narrative has changed and if you don't understand why people are furious then you have been asleep at the wheel. Let's review:
1. The CDC says 2 months ago that most of us will get COVID. It's on the CDCs own website and has been widely cited by scientist.
2. The lockdown was about "flattening the curve"...Preventing hospitals from getting overwhelmed which could lead to more deaths.
3. The lockdown WAS NOT about preventing the spread of COVID. It was about slowing it down to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed. The CDC's own website says most of us will get it...it is inevitable. Lockdown or not, it doesn't matter. Most of us are getting it.
4. It turns out that ICU beds never even came close to the capacity that was estimated EVEN WITH THE LOCKDOWN. Not even close. You can find this data yourself on the CA DOH website.
5. With the "flattening the curve" narrative now debunked, the story has now changed to "lockdown until we find the cure".
6. "Flattening the curve" has a definitive timeline. "Finding the cure" does not.
7. There is no telling how long it will take to find a cure. No telling how long you will be in house prison.
8. Reread #1 and #3 again.
Wait, who is arguing for lockdown until there is a cure? Which officials?
- No more than 1 case per 10,000 people in the last 14 days
- No COVID-19 deaths in the past 14 days
- Minimum daily testing of 1.5 tests per 1,000 residents
- At least 15 contact tracers per 100,000 residents
- County or regional hospital capacity to accommodate a minimum surge of 35%
Read that again - to get to the later part of Stage 2, a county must have ZERO COVID DEATHS. Besides the fact that reports of deaths and cases trail by many weeks, we literally many never achieve that. Not absent a cure. And that is stage 2 - not the later stages. The standard is not just unreasonable - in many places it will be impossible.
Consistent with that, yesterday Mayor Eric Garcetti said LA would not "fully reopen" until there's a cure. He tried to walk it back, but he's referring to at least some restrictions (i.e, sporting events).
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/05/13/coronavirus-covid-los-angeles-la-county-mayor-health-reopen-vaccine/
According to Gov. Newsom, Stage 2 is "weeks" away, Stage 3 is likely "months" away and that Stage 4 won't arrive until "treatments for the coronavirus have been developed."
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article242339301.html
So its not really a question of arguing for lockdown until there's a cure. It actually official policy.
I would agree that some of these metrics are probably unrealistic for certain locations.
However, this is still not "lockdown until there's a cure." Unless you only see the end of lockdown as the resumption of large group events like concerts and sports with crowds. I personally would say that once you're in Stage 2 or 3 you're not in lockdown.
That's not lock down?
SIP was justified by flattening the curve. The above requirements are far from that and in fact have little to do with flattening the curve. The goal posts were moved. It's really not close.
That is distinct from the statewide criteria that will be used to advance us to stage 3. Newsom has said that we are perhaps a month away from that, not many months or years, and certainly not until there is a vaccine or cure.
Like I said, I might be reading this wrong, but I believe the idea is that we are moving the whole state through the stages at a measured pace. Places that are doing significantly better can apply for a variance and move faster than the state as a whole, but that doesn't mean that we are going to require everyone to meet those criteria to move from stage 2 to stage 3.
If I'm missing something, I would appreciate someone correcting me and pointing me to documentation showing my mistake.
With the exception of Santa Clara, all of the bay area counties will be in stage 2 as of Monday, allowing retail and manufacturing to reopen, with modifications, should they choose to do so.
"Some county supervisors despaired of ever meeting the benchmark of having no COVID-19 deaths in a 14-day period. In the past two weeks, 30 county residents have died of the disease, Quick said.
Orange County's public and private labs have the capacity to conduct far more than the 4,833 tests per day the state requires that's 1.5 tests per 1,000 residents but officials said with case counts and deaths staying fairly low, that many tests aren't needed right now.
We'd have to just be pulling the average person off the street and saying we're going to test you," Supervisor Lisa Bartlett said.
She questioned why Orange County, with its 3.2 million residents, would be held to the same standards as Alpine County, which census data estimated as having 1,129 residents in 2019.
These are requirements that the big counties are never going to meet," she said."
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/12/orange-county-meets-some-state-criteria-for-reopening-faster-falls-short-on-others-officials-say/
Variances are available though inexplicably OC hasn't been able to get one yet. Newsom and others politicians are playing games - enacting rules that are unreasonable and restrictive and then telling us they "might" grant variances and "expect" to be in stage 3 soon - if we all bend a knee and ask nicely. Why play that game? Why make a place like OC jump through a bunch of hoops and spend a bunch of money for no reason?
And to the larger point - the requirements have nothing to do with flattening the curve which was the basis upon which we all grudgingly accepted SIP.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
This is not an argument, it's not even a sensible observation in this context.AunBear89 said:
Because the virus is highly contagious. And a person can be asymptomatic and still spread. And the more people that catch the virus, the more people will die from it.
But you're probably safe. So get your nails done, get a haircut, go to a crowded bar on Karaoke Night - cuz you don't have it. Until you do.
It's what is called an appeal to emotion.hanky1 said:AunBear89 said:
Can we say "oops" when you, or someone you care about, contracts Covid-19? And becomes very ill and/or dies? It will be soooo funny making light of a tragedy, cuz that's your thing, right?
Making light? I am fighting for the tens of millions of people who have been forceably unemployed. They have lost businesses and livelihoods over questionable science.
Again...the CDC says there is no way to prevent most Americans from contracting COVID. It's literally on their website and has been cited numerous times. The point of lockdown WAS NOT TO STOP COVID FROM SPREADING. It was to slow it down. But the ICU bed narrative and flattening the curve has been blown out of the water.
So the question remains...what is the point of the lockdown now?
Yeah but what about grandmas and grandpas!hanky1 said:
Oops
https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-curve-has-been-flattened-michigan-doctors-sue-gov-whitmer-over-shutdown-order?%3Futm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwtwitter
Doctors sue Michigan Governor.
"Graphics depicted that while Governor Whitmer's administration anticipated 220,000 patients being hospitalized without social distancing efforts, there had only been 3,000 hospitalizations as of April 27. That is less than 1.4% of the projected COVID-19 hospitalizations underlying the Governor's declared states of emergency and disaster," the lawsuit says."
GBear4Life said:Yeah but what about grandmas and grandpas!hanky1 said:
Oops
https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-curve-has-been-flattened-michigan-doctors-sue-gov-whitmer-over-shutdown-order?%3Futm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwtwitter
Doctors sue Michigan Governor.
"Graphics depicted that while Governor Whitmer's administration anticipated 220,000 patients being hospitalized without social distancing efforts, there had only been 3,000 hospitalizations as of April 27. That is less than 1.4% of the projected COVID-19 hospitalizations underlying the Governor's declared states of emergency and disaster," the lawsuit says."
The virus is also highly non-lethalAunBear89 said:
Because the virus is highly contagious.
