https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/trump-gaining-on-biden-in-battleground-states-new-cnn-poll-shows/7BJ3PBWWTBECLDJ2L7ZO4NTVEM/

https://twitter.com/zakmanfredi/status/1299521023340019712/photo/2

Matthew Patel said:

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https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/trump-gaining-on-biden-in-battleground-states-new-cnn-poll-shows/7BJ3PBWWTBECLDJ2L7ZO4NTVEM/

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Who am I to dispute my guy Michael Moore, but he says Biden isn't planning on going to Michigan before the election?!? I find that pretty hard to believe, considering 2016, if for no other reason than all the s*** his strategists would get if they didn't visit Michigan, then lost the state and the election. A cornerstone of most political strategies is to AT LEAST not repeat the most recent screw up.

Michael Moore was a sage in 2016 predicting a tRump win. Now that tRump has fully revealed himself as a criminal and a traitor, Moore is a bit of a Johnny Come Lately. Is there anyone sophisticated that doesn't realize that tRump is going to "win."*

*His very possible contraction of COVID 19 is the only thing that knocks him out of the box.

Dude, you just linked to another article that cited the exact same poll you cited in another thread where I took you to task for cherry-picking the worst looking poll for Biden. You just cherry-picked the same cherry and started a new thread.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/97226/replies/1786838

That CNN poll is an outlier. There have been a lot of other polls taken since then. Here, have a look:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

sycasey said:

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Dude, you just linked to another article that cited the exact same poll you cited in another thread where I took you to task for cherry-picking the worst looking poll for Biden. You just cherry-picked the same cherry and started a new thread.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/97226/replies/1786838

That CNN poll is an outlier. There have been a lot of other polls taken since then. Here, have a look:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

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I don't always agree with Casey, but I find his analysis of polls outstanding. He called the biggest surprise of the last election, OC turning blue.

wifeisafurd said:

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sycasey said:

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Dude, you just linked to another article that cited the exact same poll you cited in another thread where I took you to task for cherry-picking the worst looking poll for Biden. You just cherry-picked the same cherry and started a new thread.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/97226/replies/1786838

That CNN poll is an outlier. There have been a lot of other polls taken since then. Here, have a look:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

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I don't always agree with Casey, but I find his analysis of polls outstanding. He called the biggest surprise of the last election, OC turning blue.

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It doesn't really take any expertise to see through this one though. Yogi just keeps citing the same poll.

Nonetheless, the nominee has been picked, and democrats should do everything they can from this point forward to not get cocky or lazy and unify the party as well as driving turnout.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/michael-moore-warned-that-trump-s-support-among-his-base-is-off-the-charts-and-he-is-on-course-to-win-the-presidential-election/ar-BB18vZB6?li=BBorjTa

golden sloth said:

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Nonetheless, the nominee has been picked, and democrats should do everything they can from this point forward to not get cocky or lazy and unify the party as well as driving turnout.

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Joe had left the basement. What I hope the Dems do is leave behind it is just COVID and Trump's personality. Maybe that is enough. But things could change on the COVID front, and on Trump's personality, a lot voters don't really care. Start discussing medical coverage and issues voters care about. There is a pre-COVID narrative on which the Dems took back the House and they should not ignore it now.

LOL
100% true

sycasey said:

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Dude, you just linked to another article that cited the exact same poll you cited in another thread where I took you to task for cherry-picking the worst looking poll for Biden. You just cherry-picked the same cherry and started a new thread.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/97226/replies/1786838

That CNN poll is an outlier. There have been a lot of other polls taken since then. Here, have a look:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

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Yes yes you're correct. Trump has no chance of winning. No point in voting since he's going to win anyways. Just stay home Democrats

Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

sycasey said:

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Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

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Sy, I saw a headline To a recent article about Trump "underpolling" due to people not telling pollsters he was really their preference. Do you see any validity in this and did that happen in 2016 also?

NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

---

Sy, I saw a headline To a recent article about Trump "underpolling" due to people not telling pollsters he was really their preference. Do you see any validity in this and did that happen in 2016 also?

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It's probably not really a thing.

Matthew Patel said:

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IMO, RCP's polling averages are less reliable than 538's. They don't include all polls and don't weight for house effects. Right now a very right-leaning pollster (Trafalgar) has released polls of some of these states and is skewing the average.

In any event, I'd also say the polling is going to be a bit swingy right now since the conventions just happened (I don't expect big movement from these, but there will be some movement). After Labor Day we'll have a better idea of where the race stands.

Inside Biden's edge: Trump hasn't expanded his base - Axios


https://www.axios.com/bidens-edge-trump-base-9366ee70-ba96-4dec-958a-9f58ccf726d4.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

sycasey said:

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Matthew Patel said:

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IMO, RCP's polling averages are less reliable than 538's. They don't include all polls and don't weight for house effects. Right now a very right-leaning pollster (Trafalgar) has released polls of some of these states and is skewing the average.

In any event, I'd also say the polling is going to be a bit swingy right now since the conventions just happened (I don't expect big movement from these, but there will be some movement). After Labor Day we'll have a better idea of where the race stands.

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It's going to come down to the debates ... if Biden agrees to them of course.

LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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Matthew Patel said:

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IMO, RCP's polling averages are less reliable than 538's. They don't include all polls and don't weight for house effects. Right now a very right-leaning pollster (Trafalgar) has released polls of some of these states and is skewing the average.

In any event, I'd also say the polling is going to be a bit swingy right now since the conventions just happened (I don't expect big movement from these, but there will be some movement). After Labor Day we'll have a better idea of where the race stands.

---

It's going to come down to the debates ... if Biden agrees to them of course.

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I don't know where this narrative is coming from that Biden won't debate. Here he is just a few days ago:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joe-biden-says-he-will-debate-donald-trump-rejects-calls-to-ignore-the-president-2020-08-27

sycasey said:

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LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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Matthew Patel said:

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IMO, RCP's polling averages are less reliable than 538's. They don't include all polls and don't weight for house effects. Right now a very right-leaning pollster (Trafalgar) has released polls of some of these states and is skewing the average.

In any event, I'd also say the polling is going to be a bit swingy right now since the conventions just happened (I don't expect big movement from these, but there will be some movement). After Labor Day we'll have a better idea of where the race stands.

---

It's going to come down to the debates ... if Biden agrees to them of course.

---

I don't know where this narrative is coming from that Biden won't debate. Here he is just a few days ago:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joe-biden-says-he-will-debate-donald-trump-rejects-calls-to-ignore-the-president-2020-08-27

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It's not that he won't debate, it's that:

1) It's hard to see it helping him any.
2) Nancy Pelosi publicly said he shouldn't, which likely mirrors the opinion of his advisers.

If Republicans keep lowering the expectations for Biden to the point where even a moderately competent debate performance impresses people, then they definitely will help him.

So please, keep it up.

sycasey said:

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NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

---

Sy, I saw a headline To a recent article about Trump "underpolling" due to people not telling pollsters he was really their preference. Do you see any validity in this and did that happen in 2016 also?

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It's probably not really a thing.

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Thanks, the other issue I have learned to watch for in polling is whether the poll is representative of "likely voters", i.e. if you ask the opinion of a random sample of people walking down the street they might say something different than a random sample of people who always vote. The Rasmussen polls historically claimed to be more representative of actual voters, do you know if other polls have changed their methods since 2016?

Since the debates will be not substantive but purely theater, Biden should hire a staff of insult comics and psychologists that specialize in narcissistic personality disorder to prepare him. Biden can then drive tRump over the cliff during the debate (lots of small hands and small d@ick references).

sycasey said:

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If Republicans keep lowering the expectations for Biden to the point where even a moderately competent debate performance impresses people, then they definitely will help him.

So please, keep it up.

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Can they get lower?

NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

---

Sy, I saw a headline To a recent article about Trump "underpolling" due to people not telling pollsters he was really their preference. Do you see any validity in this and did that happen in 2016 also?

---

There is no evidence of shy Trump voters. There has actually been very little evidence of shy anything voters ever happening to any kind of frequency.

What does appear to be an issue is a conventional wisdom bias. This appears to have occurred in the Brexit vote and in 2016 and in 2018 (in the opposite direction). That is that polling agencies tweak their numbers to pick the right mix of voters and they generally have multiple poll results for each poll and they adjust according to many factors. There appears to have been a problem in these cases that they tended to choose what everyone else was choosing because it supported "conventional wisdom". In 2018, they were afraid of blowing it again so they edged the scale toward Republicans to try and "fix" what happened in 2016 and they missed in the other direction.

Also, 2016 was not a big polling miss. It was a big pundit miss. The polls missed popular vote by barely over 1% and were much more accurate than 2012. It is just in 2016 that miss in a close election in the wrong direction flipped the result. Pundits read the fact that every poll was coming out with Clinton barely ahead as meaning she had no chance of losing. That is not what the pollsters were saying.

The ace in the hole tRump has is that even if he had a stroke during the debate and was disoriented and slurred his speech, Hannity, Carlson and Ingraham would proclaim him the decisive winner of the debate....and the half of the nation that never changes the channel from Fox News would buy it.

Whereas, you can always count on CNN and MSNBC to undermine the Democratic candidate since their daily tRump pity parties provide the engine that drives their cash flow.

NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

---

Sy, I saw a headline To a recent article about Trump "underpolling" due to people not telling pollsters he was really their preference. Do you see any validity in this and did that happen in 2016 also?

---

It's probably not really a thing.

---

Thanks, the other issue I have learned to watch for in polling is whether the poll is representative of "likely voters", i.e. if you ask the opinion of a random sample of people walking down the street they might say something different than a random sample of people who always vote. The Rasmussen polls historically claimed to be more representative of actual voters, do you know if other polls have changed their methods since 2016?

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Pretty much every reputable poll tries to weight by things like race, gender, education, age, etc. Maybe some of them have changed their weighting system since 2016, though I would note that the national polling in 2016 really was not bad. They had Clinton winning the national vote by 3-4 points and she won it by 2. That's within the margin of error. The issue is with how that affected her standing in the Electoral College.

Polls were also pretty much spot-on in the 2018 midterms. People tend to overstate how much the polls are "wrong." Most of the time they are pretty accurate. Sometimes a minor miss like in 2016 has huge implications because of where it's concentrated, but that's not typical. Basically, if Biden is still up by 6 points or more by Election Day he's near-certain to win. The polls will probably not be off by that much.

NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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NVBear78 said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump has a chance to come back and win. He is clearly behind at the moment.

---

Sy, I saw a headline To a recent article about Trump "underpolling" due to people not telling pollsters he was really their preference. Do you see any validity in this and did that happen in 2016 also?

---

It's probably not really a thing.

---

Thanks, the other issue I have learned to watch for in polling is whether the poll is representative of "likely voters", i.e. if you ask the opinion of a random sample of people walking down the street they might say something different than a random sample of people who always vote. The Rasmussen polls historically claimed to be more representative of actual voters, do you know if other polls have changed their methods since 2016?

---

Rasmussen is an average pollster. Their polls are not more representative of actual voters than normal.

LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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If Republicans keep lowering the expectations for Biden to the point where even a moderately competent debate performance impresses people, then they definitely will help him.

So please, keep it up.

---

Can they get lower?

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Perfect, keep it up!

sycasey said:

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LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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If Republicans keep lowering the expectations for Biden to the point where even a moderately competent debate performance impresses people, then they definitely will help him.

So please, keep it up.

---

Can they get lower?

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Perfect, keep it up!

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Ok. If he makes it onto the stage and keeps his eyes open for the duration he's the winner! Bonus points if he doesn't say he's asking for your vote for US Senator.

LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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Matthew Patel said:

---

---

IMO, RCP's polling averages are less reliable than 538's. They don't include all polls and don't weight for house effects. Right now a very right-leaning pollster (Trafalgar) has released polls of some of these states and is skewing the average.

In any event, I'd also say the polling is going to be a bit swingy right now since the conventions just happened (I don't expect big movement from these, but there will be some movement). After Labor Day we'll have a better idea of where the race stands.

---

It's going to come down to the debates ... if Biden agrees to them of course.

---

I don't know where this narrative is coming from that Biden won't debate. Here he is just a few days ago:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joe-biden-says-he-will-debate-donald-trump-rejects-calls-to-ignore-the-president-2020-08-27

---

It's not that he won't debate, it's that:

1) It's hard to see it helping him any.
2) Nancy Pelosi publicly said he shouldn't, which likely mirrors the opinion of his advisers.

---

Nancy Pelosi should go back to her home on Whorre Island

bearister said:

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The ace in the hole tRump has is that even if he had a stroke during the debate and was disoriented and slurred his speech, Hannity, Carlson and Ingraham would proclaim him the decisive winner of the debate....and the half of the nation that never changes the channel from Fox News would buy it.

Whereas, you can always count on CNN and MSNBC to undermine the Democratic candidate since their daily tRump pity parties provide the engine that drives their cash flow.

---

If Trump were disoriented and slurred his speech during the debate, he would look exactly like Biden.



Liberalism is a mental illness.

Matthew Patel said:

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LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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LMK5 said:

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sycasey said:

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Matthew Patel said:

---

---

IMO, RCP's polling averages are less reliable than 538's. They don't include all polls and don't weight for house effects. Right now a very right-leaning pollster (Trafalgar) has released polls of some of these states and is skewing the average.

In any event, I'd also say the polling is going to be a bit swingy right now since the conventions just happened (I don't expect big movement from these, but there will be some movement). After Labor Day we'll have a better idea of where the race stands.

---

It's going to come down to the debates ... if Biden agrees to them of course.

---

I don't know where this narrative is coming from that Biden won't debate. Here he is just a few days ago:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joe-biden-says-he-will-debate-donald-trump-rejects-calls-to-ignore-the-president-2020-08-27

---

It's not that he won't debate, it's that:

1) It's hard to see it helping him any.
2) Nancy Pelosi publicly said he shouldn't, which likely mirrors the opinion of his advisers.

---

Nancy Pelosi should go back to her home on Whorre Island

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I didn't know she lived in Alameda.