and what will it cost to get out?

Will the Bears just hang around until the ncaa blows up, and football and basketball go EXPLICITLY professional, or will an opportunity arise for an uncomplicated withdrawal?

If "major" sports survive, I do not believe UC's will choose the professional model at the P2+2 level. Television eyeballs and ticket sales will not permit it.

Sunk costs are not recoverable in this market.

An interesting question. I'm reading all kinds of scenarios on Twitter about how FSU may have found a way out of the GoR. They and Clemson, perhaps UNC and Miami would leave for B1G and/or SEC. That would leave 5-6 teams that are talking ACC/Big12 merger of sorts. And then include the P2 into the mix.

One thing I think is a certainty - ACC as we currently know it today is probably gone in 5 years or less. And i think that FSU being left out of the CFP, whether people think it was justified or not, is going to hasten the ACC's demise.

philly1121 said:

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An interesting question. I'm reading all kinds of scenarios on Twitter about how FSU may have found a way out of the GoR. They and Clemson, perhaps UNC and Miami would leave for B1G and/or SEC. That would leave 5-6 teams that are talking ACC/Big12 merger of sorts. And then include the P2 into the mix.

One thing I think is a certainty - ACC as we currently know it today is probably gone in 5 years or less. And i think that FSU being left out of the CFP, whether people think it was justified or not, is going to hasten the ACC's demise.

---

Lots of fans on Xitter have fantasies about realignment, and conveniently each fan's fantasy puts his favorite team in a better place and puts teams he roots against in a worse place.

Of course FSU wants to find a way out. That's also the only reason Cal, Stanford, and SMU got in; the schools that have no shot at the Big Ten or SEC (including those who don't want to publicly admit they have no shot) voted us in because they want safety in numbers.

How many networks want to show how many football games each weekend? I think two conferences is not enough to satisfy TV demand and keep enough markets interested in college football. There are 32 NFL teams but I think that you want more college teams circulating on TV than that.
I think it's also complicated by the linkage to basketball (colleges want their bball and football teams in the same conference). Basketball can fill more TV slots than football (2 games week instead of 1)..

BearSD said:

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philly1121 said:

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An interesting question. I'm reading all kinds of scenarios on Twitter about how FSU may have found a way out of the GoR. They and Clemson, perhaps UNC and Miami would leave for B1G and/or SEC. That would leave 5-6 teams that are talking ACC/Big12 merger of sorts. And then include the P2 into the mix.

One thing I think is a certainty - ACC as we currently know it today is probably gone in 5 years or less. And i think that FSU being left out of the CFP, whether people think it was justified or not, is going to hasten the ACC's demise.

---

Lots of fans on Xitter have fantasies about realignment, and conveniently each fan's fantasy puts his favorite team in a better place and puts teams he roots against in a worse place.

Of course FSU wants to find a way out. That's also the only reason Cal, Stanford, and SMU got in; the schools that have no shot at the Big Ten or SEC (including those who don't want to publicly admit they have no shot) voted us in because they want safety in numbers.

---

Plus they thought the additional cash we are bringing them from ESPN (by forgoing most of our shares) would mollify the malcontents.

If Cal wasn't in the game I would watch about the same amount of college games as I do pro… which is typically about 15 minutes of the superbowl IF it's a close game

dmh65 said:

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How many networks want to show how many football games each weekend? I think two conferences is not enough to satisfy TV demand and keep enough markets interested in college football. There are 32 NFL teams but I think that you want more college teams circulating on TV than that.
I think it's also complicated by the linkage to basketball (colleges want their bball and football teams in the same conference). Basketball can fill more TV slots than football (2 games week instead of 1)..

---

I may be in the minority, but I think Cal and Stanford will be in the ACC for longer than ppl think, even if (when) fsu/clemson/UNC leave.

JRL.02 said:

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I may be in the minority, but I think Cal and Stanford will be in the ACC for longer than ppl think, even if (when) fsu/clemson/UNC leave.

---

yup. we will be stuck with virginia, nc state, duke, boston college etc and have nowhere else to go

the acc gor is contractually airtight kinda like bobo's excuses for not making it up the hill to memorial stadium on gamedays

TedfordTheGreat said:

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JRL.02 said:

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I may be in the minority, but I think Cal and Stanford will be in the ACC for longer than ppl think, even if (when) fsu/clemson/UNC leave.

---

yup. we will be stuck with virginia, nc state, duke, boston college etc and have nowhere else to go

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ur a dumb azz, maybe take a contracts law school class, eeyore

The sun never sets for you shocky. When it comes to your dreams of Cal football dominance.

philly, can we meet up at pittsburgh road game next year in the acc or can u at least tell me the top 3 poke or sushi places near the stadium that don't got mercury from the river in the fish?

pregame 36 holes at oakmont#

JRL.02 said:

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I may be in the minority, but I think Cal and Stanford will be in the ACC for longer than ppl think, even if (when) fsu/clemson/UNC leave.

---

We will remain in the ACC when it breaks up, only if we have no place else to go.

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

75bear said:

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JRL.02 said:

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I may be in the minority, but I think Cal and Stanford will be in the ACC for longer than ppl think, even if (when) fsu/clemson/UNC leave.

---

We will remain in the ACC when it breaks up, only if we have no place else to go.

---

Thankfully our admin is not just "sitting on the sidelines."

calumnus said:

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BearSD said:

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philly1121 said:

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An interesting question. I'm reading all kinds of scenarios on Twitter about how FSU may have found a way out of the GoR. They and Clemson, perhaps UNC and Miami would leave for B1G and/or SEC. That would leave 5-6 teams that are talking ACC/Big12 merger of sorts. And then include the P2 into the mix.

One thing I think is a certainty - ACC as we currently know it today is probably gone in 5 years or less. And i think that FSU being left out of the CFP, whether people think it was justified or not, is going to hasten the ACC's demise.

---

Lots of fans on Xitter have fantasies about realignment, and conveniently each fan's fantasy puts his favorite team in a better place and puts teams he roots against in a worse place.

Of course FSU wants to find a way out. That's also the only reason Cal, Stanford, and SMU got in; the schools that have no shot at the Big Ten or SEC (including those who don't want to publicly admit they have no shot) voted us in because they want safety in numbers.

---

Plus they thought the additional cash we are bringing them from ESPN (by forgoing most of our shares) would mollify the malcontents.

---

Giving up most of the conference distribution was probably needed to get the last 2 or 3 yes votes, yeah. Though that money probably adds only about $2 million a year at most to each older member's share, because most of the money is supposedly going to annual performance bonuses for success in football and basketball.

BearBoarBlarney said:

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I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

---

i agree with this. All posture, but not based in reality.

it's better to be a big fish in a small pond. they are afraid that they cant compete on coaching salary and facilities, and i agree with that. I am sure being in the ACC is not worth a $40M differential. But if tis a $20M differential? $10M , its a no brainer

The expansion-lovers internet fallacy is in thinking TV will continue to give more and more money to the SEC and Big Ten for adding more and more new members until each has 24 or more members. IMO both are already at the point where TV just wants games among the biggest names in each league, while the others in those leagues often have their football and basketball games warehoused on conference networks or their overflow channels or streamers like Peacock and ESPN+, like all the storage crates in the last scene of "Raiders of the Lost Ark".

What happens when the available TV money decreases for everyone? When ESPN transitions into being a subscription-only streaming service like ESPN+, and their overall revenue goes down, suppose they want to pay good money only for games involving the most popular teams.

For example, on Saturday, Nov. 25 this year, these were the TV audience sizes for three games that started at noon eastern time:
Big Ten game, Ohio State v. Michigan, on Fox: 19,070,000 viewers
Big Ten game, Indiana v. Purdue, on Big Ten Network: 246,000 viewers
Big 12 game, Houston v. Central Florida, on FS1: 185,000 viewers

Three games played at the same time. The marquee Big Ten game of the day had more than 100 times as many viewers as a Big 12 game, and 77 times as many as a less-popular Big Ten game.

Does it make sense for TV to keep paying the Big 12 40% of what the Big Ten makes? Or even 10 percent? And how long will Ohio State and Michigan be happy with getting the same amount of TV money as Indiana and Purdue?

IMO, those are the questions that will get unpleasant answers no later than the end of the ACC and SEC media contracts in spring 2036.

BearSD said:

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Of course FSU wants to find a way out. That's also the only reason Cal, Stanford, and SMU got in; the schools that have no shot at the Big Ten or SEC (including those who don't want to publicly admit they have no shot) voted us in because they want safety in numbers.

---

It was this and also Notre Dame leading the charge because they like the football independence they have in the ACC and know the Big Ten and SEC would not allow them to keep it. (And also high-minded reasons about preserving athletics at these great academic institutions, blah blah blah.)

I tend to agree that the Twitter rumors are nonsense. Everyone knows FSU wants to leave, but no one has actually explained how they will do it.

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

---

Winning the ACC this year was supposed to be a guaranteed path. What happened? And if this was true (and it was up until this year), then why would FSU entertain the possibility again?

Assuming you're correct, which I respectfully don't think you are, but, why would FSU choose a path that would be a negative carry over 5-10 years? Certainly there are some bright minds over there and on other campuses that are looking at everything. For me its quite simply that networks don't regard the ACC as having much value - even with the expansion of the CFP.. That's what 5-6 ACC teams are looking at - a GoR deal that is like a noose around their necks. The rest, its their only lifeline to FBS.

TedfordTheGreat said:

---

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

---

i agree with this. All posture, but not based in reality.

it's better to be a big fish in a small pond. they are afraid that they cant compete on coaching salary and facilities, and i agree with that. I am sure being in the ACC is not worth a $40M differential. But if tis a $20M differential? $10M , its a no brainer

---

If this were the case, SC wouldn't of had any reason to leave the P12. They clearly believed, rightfully, that it was not better to be a big fish in a small pond.

philly1121 said:

---

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

---

Winning the ACC this year was supposed to be a guaranteed path. What happened? And if this was true (and it was up until this year), then why would FSU entertain the possibility again?

Assuming you're correct, which I respectfully don't think you are, but, why would FSU choose a path that would be a negative carry over 5-10 years? Certainly there are some bright minds over there and on other campuses that are looking at everything. For me its quite simply that networks don't regard the ACC as having much value - even with the expansion of the CFP.. That's what 5-6 ACC teams are looking at - a GoR deal that is like a noose around their necks. The rest, its their only lifeline to FBS.

---

How was winning the ACC a guaranteed path THIS YEAR when there are 5 Power Conferences and only 4 playoff spots this year?

Next year there will be 12 playoff spots. 12 > 4

philly1121 said:

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TedfordTheGreat said:

---

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

---

i agree with this. All posture, but not based in reality.

it's better to be a big fish in a small pond. they are afraid that they cant compete on coaching salary and facilities, and i agree with that. I am sure being in the ACC is not worth a $40M differential. But if tis a $20M differential? $10M , its a no brainer

---

If this were the case, SC wouldn't of had any reason to leave the P12. They clearly believed, rightfully, that it was not better to be a big fish in a small pond.

---

$70 million > $30 million. THAT is the main reason.

They (Florida State) are greatly overestimating how much desire there is to have them anywhere else.

I don't think any of the current ACC schools are getting a full slice in EITHER the Big 10 or SEC. At least not upfront.

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

TedfordTheGreat said:

---

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

BearBoarBlarney said:

---

I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

---

I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

---

The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

---

i agree with this. All posture, but not based in reality.

it's better to be a big fish in a small pond. they are afraid that they cant compete on coaching salary and facilities, and i agree with that. I am sure being in the ACC is not worth a $40M differential. But if tis a $20M differential? $10M , its a no brainer

---

If this were the case, SC wouldn't of had any reason to leave the P12. They clearly believed, rightfully, that it was not better to be a big fish in a small pond.

---

$70 million > $30 million. THAT is the main reason.

---

That is an important reason, and the easiest one for USC to state publicly..

There's another important reason that USC would never admit publicly: In the smaller pond, they couldn't even consistently remain the biggest fish. The last time they won the Pac football title was 2017. They got out while their brand was still attractive to the Big Ten.

FSU will have the same consideration. At this moment, their football brand looks pretty good. But this season was their first with an ACC football title since 2014.

Frankly, if the future is two 16-team mega-conferences of potentially illiterate semi-professional players wearing school-colored laundry, and everyone else going back to some system where you play a sport to get your higher education paid for, I wish they would just get on with it. I get that for optics, we can't voluntarily demote, in the same manner that someone who has a piece of property the government wants often forces them to use eminent domain, for the tax benefits, rather than just selling it to them. But the arms race if you're a fan is somewhat exhausting, even on what appears to be a good day like today for signings.

Jeff82 said:

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Frankly, if the future is two 16-team mega-conferences of potentially illiterate semi-professional players wearing school-colored laundry, and everyone else going back to some system where you play a sport to get your higher education paid for, I wish they would just get on with it. I get that for optics, we can't voluntarily demote, in the same manner that someone who has a piece of property the government wants often forces them to use eminent domain, for the tax benefits, rather than just selling it to them. But the arms race if you're a fan is somewhat exhausting, even on what appears to be a good day like today for signings.

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The problem is that we would need to burn down our athletic department in the process. I don't know if there's a soft landing here unless we slowly cut sports and downsize the athletic department over time.

Quite simply because it has never happened before. And by every metric, FSU should have made it. It doesn't matter if they're going to 12 next year. What mattered was this year. And they got left out. That's why they feel snubbed. Not just with the CFP but the ACC as well.

Exactly! What are we talkin here? It's money. I'm agreeing with you. But for anyone to suggest it's better to be an DC in the P12 or an FSU in the ACC simply because they can or could dominate? Nah. It's about getting paid. Even if SC was to go 6-6 next year - who cares? They're getting paid better. SC saw fit to swim upstream and get in a bigger pond before their old one dried out!

philly1121 said:

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Exactly! What are we talkin here? It's money. I'm agreeing with you. But for anyone to suggest it's better to be an DC in the P12 or an FSU in the ACC simply because they can or could dominate? Nah. It's about getting paid. Even if SC was to go 6-6 next year - who cares? They're getting paid better. SC saw fit to swim upstream and get in a bigger pond before their old one dried out!

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SC jumped when the PAC-12 GORs expired. No exit fee, only upside.

FSU signed away their GORs to the ACC which lasts well into the next decade. The ACC owns their media rights. The buyout is $500 million.

FSU wants to be paid more, so the rumor is they are going to go to private equity to borrow the $500 million they need to get out? Even if they amortize it over 20 years they will not come out ahead and that is by design, the amount was set astronomically high to keep schools from leaving.

Their issue is they signed an ironclad contract that they now want out of. Trying to break such contracts usually is not a good legal or financial decision. A lawyer will take the case, they will spend lots of money and lose.

eastbayyoungbear said:

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Jeff82 said:

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Frankly, if the future is two 16-team mega-conferences of potentially illiterate semi-professional players wearing school-colored laundry, and everyone else going back to some system where you play a sport to get your higher education paid for, I wish they would just get on with it. I get that for optics, we can't voluntarily demote, in the same manner that someone who has a piece of property the government wants often forces them to use eminent domain, for the tax benefits, rather than just selling it to them. But the arms race if you're a fan is somewhat exhausting, even on what appears to be a good day like today for signings.

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The problem is that we would need to burn down our athletic department in the process. I don't know if there's a soft landing here unless we slowly cut sports and downsize the athletic department over time.

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The soft landing is requiring the male non-revenue sports to raise their own money, probably, and have a very limited campus athletic budget that's mostly geared to propping up the Title IX requirements numerically.

I'm just following up on the post that suggest there are a limited number of teams that TV is actually interested in broadcasting, and it ultimately pay only for those schools. If that's the cast, seems like there are no more than 32 schools that probably meet the standard, and everyone else that's now in Division I will have to do something different. If that's where we're headed, and that's where Cal is likely to end up, I'd rather just get on with it.

calumnus said:

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philly1121 said:

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BearBoarBlarney said:

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I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

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I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

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The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

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I think this is true. FSU thought that this year they would get millions more because of the uneven distribution that was negotiated in the ACC for the football playoff funds. The winner would get a bigger share - say 20 million more than the rest of the group. That is worthwhile. But they did not get it and their team is not guaranteed to win next year. So that is a real loss. Which is why they are majorly pissed off right now. If they do win next year, they will get an outsized share.

The problem FSU has is two parts - not sure anyone wants them (ESPN is happy for them to be in the ACC) and very sure that they would have to pay a lot to leave. The ACC brands are not 100 million per year brands. Frankly neither are most of the Big 10 and SEC brands. There are about 10 250 million per year brands, and about 50 40 million dollar brands in the big 4 conferences.

If the ACC lost those 4 teams - it seems to me that there is just as much of a chance that the 4 corners AAU schools join the ACC at full rates (which is higher than the Big 12) than the ACC goes to the Big 12. At that point, there are no real Big 12 schools which are worth much of anything. If they also brought in Kansas and TCU, then the ACC would be a truly significant conference and the rest of the Big 12 would be working to kill the Mountain West. I expect that to happen in 5 years personally when the Big 12 goes to market and no one cares. Expand the ACC to 24 teams and have some sort of mini playoff. Or 20 teams if the expansion of the Big 10 and SEC occurs. The ACC GOR may be able to be broken by 4 teams who are taking a 200 million dollar haircut in 2030 as they leave, but when the Big 12 GOR goes away in 5 years, those guys are ripe for the taking.

Oski87 said:

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calumnus said:

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philly1121 said:

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BearBoarBlarney said:

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I'm curious where some of the cognoscenti think they see proof of the impending disintegration of the ACC due to some as-yet-undiscovered loophole in the ACC Grant of Rights?

I know where there's smoke there's usually fire, but seems like if an easy GoR loophole existed, it would have been exploited by now....

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I think that's what all the twitter stuff and scenarios are being written. I think the difference between before and the last several weeks is - the FSU snub. And with all these rumors, one did actually peek out onto the ESPN ticker two days ago.

i think there are alot of bottom lines but one of them is this: its not just the ACC that thinks it doesn't have enough to stay together. I think the B12 also thinks that it needs to do more to counteract the B1G and SEC influence. Now that's different than what we've heard before. Because now the rumors are not whether FSU and Clemson leave, its where they go and what happens to the rest of the conference. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and NC State decide to leave, then what happens to the other schools. The school of thought now is that, they can't survive as the ACC and that they would need to join the B12.

If you tie in the rumors of a private equity firm in the mix, then the cost of leaving the ACC becomes a smaller hurdle to jump.

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The FSU snub is 2023 with only a 4 team playoff. If FSU were in the SEC they would probably not be undefeated and would still be fighting with Alabama, Georgia and Texas for the last spot. Probably still snubbed.

Next year is a 12 team playoff. Winning the ACC will be a guaranteed path. Competing in the SEC will be a more difficult path. If they jump to the SEC next year due to the 2023 snub they are a dumb bag of rocks.

Apart from "tougher competition" (which cuts both ways) the big advantage of the SEC (or B1G) is more money. But if FSU has to pay the ACC's $500 million exit fee, even if it is loaned to them by private equity and paid off with interest over 10 or 20 years, that financial advantage will be more than negated.

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I think this is true. FSU thought that this year they would get millions more because of the uneven distribution that was negotiated in the ACC for the football playoff funds. The winner would get a bigger share - say 20 million more than the rest of the group. That is worthwhile. But they did not get it and their team is not guaranteed to win next year. So that is a real loss. Which is why they are majorly pissed off right now. If they do win next year, they will get an outsized share.

The problem FSU has is two parts - not sure anyone wants them (ESPN is happy for them to be in the ACC) and very sure that they would have to pay a lot to leave. The ACC brands are not 100 million per year brands. Frankly neither are most of the Big 10 and SEC brands. There are about 10 250 million per year brands, and about 50 40 million dollar brands in the big 4 conferences.

If the ACC lost those 4 teams - it seems to me that there is just as much of a chance that the 4 corners AAU schools join the ACC at full rates (which is higher than the Big 12) than the ACC goes to the Big 12. At that point, there are no real Big 12 schools which are worth much of anything. If they also brought in Kansas and TCU, then the ACC would be a truly significant conference and the rest of the Big 12 would be working to kill the Mountain West. I expect that to happen in 5 years personally when the Big 12 goes to market and no one cares. Expand the ACC to 24 teams and have some sort of mini playoff. Or 20 teams if the expansion of the Big 10 and SEC occurs. The ACC GOR may be able to be broken by 4 teams who are taking a 200 million dollar haircut in 2030 as they leave, but when the Big 12 GOR goes away in 5 years, those guys are ripe for the taking.

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Agreed. The B-12 is in the same states and time zones as the best teams in the SEC and B1G. The ACC is far better positioned to develop a Western pod. Assuming we do not implode.