TheSouseFamily said:
Serious question for you, GMP. If you're Farhan, do you hold out hope for a possible wild card bid or do you start to sell off guys with value like Bumgarner, Smith, etc to build a stronger team In the future? If i'm a Giants fan, I think I'd strongly prefer to be in selling mode. And there isn't a ton of time to make that decision.
I'm certainly not buying. I wouldn't mortgage the future, with a suddenly promising farm system. I'd sell the bullpen guys I can replace quickly. They have a lot of confidence in the bullpen guys in AAA - guys like Selman.
But I'd actually hold Bumgarner unless someone blows you away with an offer, which I don't see happening. The Ringer did an interesting article this year about trading a star for prospects - the historical numbers are not great for the team trading for prospects. Highly rated traded prospects significantly underperform compared to highly rated prospects who are not traded while still a prospect. As the team trading for prospects, you're at a severe information disadvantage when compared to the team trading their prospects.
(here's the article:
https://123sports.net/2018/12/14/1-2-3-sports-week-of-december-14-2018/ - I do have some problems with their methodology, but I think the overarching conclusions are worth considering)
In other words - I have serious doubts we'd get anything worthwhile in return for Bumgarner, who will be a two month rental. He's only 28, and there's sentimental value to keeping him. We are 4 games out of the Wild Card. That's not a lot, though there are a number of teams we need to jump. I think it's worth keeping him. And then if he leaves as a FA this winter, we'll get a first round compensatory pick, which might even have more value than we'd get for him with a trade.
As for what Farhan will do, the team will need to keep winning the next two weeks. But if they do, I think he follows my plan as laid out above. Before the season he said the goal was to remain in contention as long as possible. You don't do that by trading Bumgarner from a team who is a couple games out of the Wild Card. You could do that by trading the high value bullpen guys (Smith, Watson, Moronta, Dyson) if you think you have the talent at AAA to restock immediately.