beeasyed;842317123 said:
from Chad's own mouth, looks like our ex-true frosh ILB is transferring to Oklahoma State.
happy Friday.
Happy 2013
beeasyed;842317123 said:
from Chad's own mouth, looks like our ex-true frosh ILB is transferring to Oklahoma State.
happy Friday.
freshfunk;842317130 said:
KevBear, thanks for the long post. I'm in entire agreement with your analysis of year 1 of Sonny.
I don't think Sonny's the devil or a bad guy. Heck he may even be a good coach... but not at this level. I think the guy is in over his head. The lack of defense at LaTech and hiring of Buh / mismanagement of our defense shows that he's lacking in this department as head coach. Even on offense the guy looks like he's trying different combinations of players out of desperation rather than something purposeful.
Art might help him pull off a couple wins but I don't see long term success for this coaching staff as a whole.
NYCGOBEARS;842317132 said:
He may very well be in over his head and that is how I'm inclined to believe but very few coaches wouldn't have been considering the circumstances of last year. His hand was largely forced into trying different combinations of players and yes, it was desperate. The purpose was to try and stem the bleeding. Trying to play chess with all pawns and not enough of them is a challenge. I'll make a judgement when his pieces are in place.
going4roses;842317117 said:
trying to make light of the uncertainty
who now says still hell no to HC being H. jackson and whom is willing to admit couldnt have hurt much more than it did ..
sonny and spread vs h jackson pro system ..
NYCGOBEARS;842317132 said:
He may very well be in over his head and that is how I'm inclined to believe but very few coaches wouldn't have been considering the circumstances of last year. His hand was largely forced into trying different combinations of players and yes, it was desperate. The purpose was to try and stem the bleeding. Trying to play chess with all pawns and not enough of them is a challenge. I'll make a judgement when his pieces are in place.
KevBear;842317051 said:
Here's the trap. You've fallen victim to the conventional wisdom that a new coach must be given X number of years in a fair process.
KevBear;842317051 said:
It's not that there's nothing valid behind this sentiment. Sample size is of course important when assessing data, and right now our sample size with Dykes is essentially one season. What's more is rebuilding a program is a process where Year 5 is expected to look very much better than Year 1. I have no problem with these as guidelines. What they do not say, however, is that the Year 1 results are insignificant. It is perfectly possible for a coach to return, even in a single year, results that cut through the natural ambiguity of the rebuilding process and cast real concern on his competency.
KevBear;842317051 said:
In these instances, coaches are still not fired after Year 1, but that's because of practical limitations associated with AD resources and the dynamics of appearances (that a school may not want to get a reputation for firing coaches unjustly, or that an AD would not want the pressure and accountability that would follow making such a controversial executive decision), not because there isn't a rational basis to judge the coach's performance.
KevBear;842317051 said:
You don't think that the team's performance in '13 was bad enough to warrant removing Dykes (practical limitations notwithstanding). Ok, I think you're wrong, but we'll look the details next. For now, can't we agree that there is a level of poor team performance even in the first year where you would have to reevaluate and consider immediate action (again, notwithstanding practical limitations)?
KevBear;842317051 said:
If instead, Dykes had gone 0-12 and lost every game by 50+, wouldn't you say "uh, maybe we made a mistake?" Is that an absurdly unrealistic example? Of course it is. Of course a coach who performs that unfathomably badly should lose the benefit of the doubt. You couldn't just say "it's too short-sighted to pull the plug after Year 1, that's not going to help right the ship." But on the scale of actual results, the season Dykes just produced was the realistic equivalent of unfathomably bad. It was the worst season in Cal history. One of the worst seasons in the modern history of the conference. That alone, before any other factors are looked at, should at least open the door to a reevaluation. Why? Because it's very rare that a program ever recovers after a season like that with the same coach at the helm.
KevBear;842317051 said:
Now, about last season. Yes, Dykes did not take over a strong roster. But before the start of the 2013 season, typical preseason predictions had this team winning 4-5 games. Dykes himself corroborated those predictions by stating his positive appraisal of the talent left behind by Tedford. As we all know, it didn't turn out that way, so we look for explanations.
KevBear;842317051 said:
The explanation that casts Dykes positively is, of course, the injuries. There were a lot of them, they are presumably outside of Dykes' influence and they unquestionably affected the team's performance. Are they enough by themselves to cast enough ambiguity on the product that was last season to warrant holding judgment against Dykes?
No.
KevBear;842317051 said:
The defense was absolutely terrible from the very beginning. Yes they were missing guys against Northwestern, but NU was missing key guys too. They still got shredded by one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Then there was Portland State. What happened there cannot be explained by injuries, and makes a mockery of attempts to paint the defense's subsequent failures on the accelerating injuries. It was coaching, a fact that Dykes himself tacitly declared when he fired the entire defensive staff after the season--a staff that he picked earlier that year!
KevBear;842317051 said:
The offense was terrible too. It was a palliative to a lot of people that the offense racked up a lot of yards through the air, but it was still the worst scoring offense in the conference. Unlike the defense, the offense's performance doesn't have a laundry list of injuries to hide behind. They lost two starters they whole year, Adcock and Cochran. Does it suck to lose guys? Yeah. But two lost starters on a unit is not anything egregious. If that is all it takes to sink Dykes then the program should load up on life preservers.
KevBear;842317051 said:
As for the excuses of installing a new system or cleaning up team morale, they're both bullshit.
Dykes' system is supposedly geared for simplicity. We heard constantly about that simplicity being a virtue, about how few plays the players needed to know. Goff quoted Dykes as saying he could teach his system to a bunch of 4th graders. Now you want to use a learning curve as an explanation for the offense's failures?
KevBear;842317051 said:
The team morale should have been an opportunity for improvement, not an albatross. The most immediate benefit that good coaches usually bring to foundering programs is an improvement in morale. The dissension on the team was an indictment of Dykes' leadership abilities. The synthesis of leadership is to get guys to perform as you want them to within their capabilities. So long as it's not abusive, how you go about doing it--buddy-buddy or hard-ass disciplinarian or professional decorum--is immaterial. It's the results you're going to be accountable for. Now, one could say that Dykes took some sort of long-view approach here, giving the team some tough medicine in Year 1 in order to instill habits and attitudes that would pay dividends in later years. Maybe, but I doubt it. When a new coach takes over a program, there's often friction in the beginning, as the new coach imposes his methods and personality over the old system--but by year's end, you usually don't hear about this as a complication any more with good coaches. You don't have the head coach yelling at the players and telling those who won't buy-in to get lost after the season ending game. The time to do that was in preseason.
KevBear;842317051 said:
So by ourselves we had 8.3% of all early declarants who didn't get drafted? That's not good.
In Tedford's entire 10 year tenure, how many players declared early and didn't get drafted?
KevBear;842317051 said:
Yes, but I didn't say I knew why they left. I never represented it as anything other than my opinion that Dykes' leadership is the overarching factor, which is why when you called me out originally for not knowing why each of them left, I took exception. It was never claimed to be more than speculative, but since, as your pointed out, none of us know on an individual basis why each player left, and since an unusual volume of players have departed, we should be compelled to speculate and look for overarching factors.
KevBear;842317051 said:
As for the supposed "fight" in the team last year, that's not what I saw. I saw a team that came to the realization that they were going to get blown out every week no matter what they did and became comfortable with it. They showed up and went through the motions, like a particularly intense set of scrimmages.
KevBear;842317051 said:
Bottom line: If I could wave a magic wand void Dykes' contract, I would. I don't really know what's happened behind closed doors on the team, and I don't really know exactly how much of the disaster last year was because of injuries. To know both, you'd have to be both a football expert and an intimate of the team. I am neither of those things. All I can do is look at the results, and the results are really bad. The last 30 years of this conference's history furnishes a lot of examples of new coaches trying to rebuild a failing program and there is a very consistent pattern to their Year 1 results: when the new coach's first year is worse than the previous year, the tenure almost always turns out badly. A lot of the same excuses being used by the people who still believe in Dykes are the same excuses used by the people who still believed in Paul Wulff after his initial failure. Those excuses proved to be a smokescreen. One year should have been enough to alert them to the fact that when the new coach has a worse record than the old coach and gets blown out a lot more than the old coach, something is probably wrong with the new coach.
KevBear;842317137 said:
In your estimation, how long should he have to get his pieces in place, and what sort of results are tolerable until he does?
biely medved;842317135 said:
Man. You're like everyone on here. Like to kick a dog when he's already down. And you've already broken the owner's jaw.
biely medved;842317135 said:
Man. You're like everyone on here. Like to kick a dog when he's already down. And you've already broken the owner's jaw.
beeasyed;842317142 said:
you're wrong about the dude. he's actually one of the biggest defenders of the staff!
NYCGOBEARS;842317132 said:
He may very well be in over his head and that is how I'm inclined to believe but very few coaches wouldn't have been considering the circumstances of last year. His hand was largely forced into trying different combinations of players and yes, it was desperate. The purpose was to try and stem the bleeding. Trying to play chess with all pawns and not enough of them is a challenge. I'll make a judgement when his pieces are in place.
freshfunk;842317147 said:
Some people seem to give Sonny a pass for Buh, pointing at him as if he's an excuse. In my opinion he is responsible for hiring him and that is part of his evaluation of being head coach. Sonny had the financial resources to hire a good DC and, instead, hired someone unproven and inexperienced.
The key responsibility for any leader is hiring the right key people for their staff. For many CEOs that is their key responsibility when building a staff. The hiring of Buh isn't Sonny's excuse but a key reason why he should be let go. If Sonny were hamstrung financially like Tedford was, he could have some excuse. But when Buh was hired he was the highest paid DC of any public school in the P12.
freshfunk;842317147 said:
Some people seem to give Sonny a pass for Buh, pointing at him as if he's an excuse. In my opinion he is responsible for hiring him and that is part of his evaluation of being head coach. Sonny had the financial resources to hire a good DC and, instead, hired someone unproven and inexperienced.
The key responsibility for any leader is hiring the right key people for their staff. For many CEOs that is their key responsibility when building a staff. The hiring of Buh isn't Sonny's excuse but a key reason why he should be let go. If Sonny were hamstrung financially like Tedford was, he could have some excuse. But when Buh was hired he was the highest paid DC of any public school in the P12.
freshfunk;842317149 said:
Other than the top teams in the conference, has any coaches eve had all their pieces in place? Most teams have some weakness and they work around that.
If we looked good the first half - heck even the first quarter - of the season I might buy into your line of thinking. But there's was no more stability at the end of the season than the beginning. It was bad juggling from day 1.
Even when Tedford had injuries, there was intentionality behind his decisions (particularly at OL). In Sonny's case he seemed to be flipping a coin every game -- during the game on what to do. Ergo you see sillyness like Kline getting 7 games to turn the tide of a game only to be pulled. Maybe it's not Sonny's doing and more like Tony's but, either way, the responsibility comes back to him.
CALiforniALUM;842317139 said:
My second installment. And I am done. Like forever on this thread. Last shot is yours.
Davidson;842317148 said:
Sonny should fired and replaced by someone that can take us to the championship game at least in 2014 or 15
bonsallbear;842317154 said:
Sooooo................. Kev, what is acceptable to you?? 5-7 wins / bowl game / beating a ranked opponent??? Just askin.
going4roses;842317117 said:
trying to make light of the uncertainty
who now says still hell no to HC being H. jackson and whom is willing to admit couldnt have hurt much more than it did ..
sonny and spread vs h jackson pro system ..
KevBear;842317162 said:
As a guideline*, I would be satisfied that last year was a contingent aberration if Dykes can win at least 5 games and have most of the losses be competitive affairs. Were he to go 5-7 with generally reasonable margins in the losses, that would buy him another year to show continued substantial improvement.
Of course, I say guideline because not all wins are equal. For instance, if he went 4-8 but the wins were higher quality and the margin in the losses more respectable, I could accept that as buying one more year.
The key is that it can't just be an improvement from '13 in a binary sense. The bar is too low for that. If it's 3-9 with lots of blowouts, Dykes should be replaced.
Cal Panda Bear;842317183 said:
If we lose to Northwestern, no matter how close, this is going to be a bad season...
KevBear;842317162 said:
As a guideline*, I would be satisfied that last year was a contingent aberration if Dykes can win at least 5 games and have most of the losses be competitive affairs. Were he to go 5-7 with generally reasonable margins in the losses, that would buy him another year to show continued substantial improvement.
Of course, I say guideline because not all wins are equal. For instance, if he went 4-8 but the wins were higher quality and the margin in the losses more respectable, I could accept that as buying one more year.
The key is that it can't just be an improvement from '13 in a binary sense. The bar is too low for that. If it's 3-9 with lots of blowouts, Dykes should be replaced.
moonpod;842317181 said:
Northwestern will be the barometer. A win and something really may happen this year. A close loss and SD may still have us turned around the right direction. Jury still out. A blow out...and you might wanna tune out college football this year
SonOfCalVa;842317168 said:
:rollinglaugh:
Perfect unanswerable question posed to those whose woulda/coulda/shoulda answers to that are totally irrelevant.
Well done!
:gobears:
manus;842317220 said:
Yup, like if we had hired Gus Malzahn and his version of the spread/hurry up offense, and he had gone 1-11.
Would these same naysayers be harpooning Malzahn? Yes, and yes.
LOL
going4roses;842317230 said:
have you taken a look at the recruiting classes that gus has had to work with wow ... alot of top rated talent to sift through / work with
go look at 2011 12 13 then look at cal and who is still here be able to contribute etc
and wasn't gus at auburn pior to coming back/ returning .. those kids on offense know whats expected for that system and it showed it ..they were well oil machine that running QB with the triple option is nasty imo
now if CAL had been running something similar to TFS/spread prior to sonny/tony.. i think we would have done bit better 3-9 at at least ...
CAL recruited to run Pro style offense and 3-4 defense .. the transition thus far has been a bumpy ride to say the least..
heartofthebear;842317247 said:
I think the 4/3 defense is a big mistake. We have always had an easier time getting quality LBs than quality DTs. I think most of Pendergast's success could be attributed to the ability to get 4 talented LBs on the field at once.