There is probably only 1 way Cal beats Air Force and that is if they score into the 40s. I expect the game to be similar to the ASU game.

Here's why based on a look at the team stats. at the NCAA site:http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/21

Cal is ranked 109th out of 127 FBS teams in total defense, giving up 455 yards/game. There are several teams ranked similarly that Air Force has played.

Air Force scored 58 points against #106 ranked Hawaii.
They also scored 35 against #97 ranked New Mexico.

It's true that those teams don't have great offenses and Cal does. But Cal's D is suffering from several key injuries at LB. Downs, Barton and Hamilton Anoi won't be playing. In addition some of the DLs are coming off injury and won't be 100%. That is a serious problem when facing a triple option team.

On the offensive side, Cal is ranked #8 in total offense, with 524 yards/gm. but Air Force is not far off, ranked #32 at 452 yards/gm. Boise St. is ranked #18 in the nation and Air Force held them to 30 points. That is because Air Force has the #23 ranked total defense in the nation, holding teams to 337 yards/gm.

The good news is that the Cal offense is healthy and reports are that they look good in practice.

One final statistical note (scoring offense and scoring defense):

Scoring offense for Cal is 36 points/gm. vs. Air Force at 33.6. However, scoring defense for Cal is 30 points per game vs. Air Force's 23.

The point is that both teams have good offenses but only one team has a good defense.

Is Cal's offense so good that it can overcome both a bad Cal D and a good Air Force D? That will be answered on Dec. 29.

Keep in mind that Cal came back to beat Air Force in 2007. However, the turning point in that game was not only the job Riley and his receivers did once he came in the game for Cal, it was also the fact that Air Force lost their QB late in the 3rd Q. Air Force did lose their starting QB earlier this year. But the replacement, Karson Roberts has had over 3 months to grow into the job. For example, his passer rating is 150.1, which would be ranked #26 if he had enough attempts (he has only 134 in 11 games and you need 15/gm to be listed ). Goff is #12 at 156.4

I'm not saying Cal can't or won't win. But I think some are disappointed that Cal isn't playing a better team. Well, Cal is playing about as tough a team as it gets match-up wise.

The good news is that Air Force is not particularly good in the turnover and special teams areas.

I think Cal needs to manage the clock and time-of-possession better than in the past. That means a heavy dosage of Watson, Enwere and Muhammed. But we'll see what happens.

Good analysis. I fear you may be correct.

I think when you compare the strength of schedule it makes most of these statistics meaningless. It was schedule filled with a lot of stiffs. Cal beat the MWC conference champion by 28 points. If Cal plays well they score more than 40 points and win by probably 3 touchdowns. They may score 40 points even if they don't play well. The only way Cal loses this game is if they lay a complete egg. If they play horribly they can lose, and as a life long Cal fan I'm always a little worried. That being said, any reasonable analysis has Cal winning this game.

Yes, you can't compare per game stats because our competition was so much tougher. With plenty of time to prepare for the Air Force offense and better, bigger athletes we should win this game by double-digits.

I wrote in another AF thread that AF is going to run for a lot and kill the clock because Cal's D isn't good and gives up yards...and never sees the triple option, from a well oiled machine. AF has 6 guys with 40 carries averages 5+ ypc. Cal's D isn't going to stop that, or a triple option and a QB who can pass...but they can slow them down. The way to beat AF is with field position (yay, special teams!) and scoring a lot really fast. Crank up the Bear Raid, drop 50. AF will run for 450+ yards, maybe 500, which means Cal has to throw for 600 yards and score fast, like against ASU in the second half.

Final score: Cal 49 - AF 42.

Good points about strength of schedule but we don't have the bodies at LB and DL to stop their running attack regardless of the SOS. And Cal has rarely done well against "lesser" competition in bowl games, primarily because the competition isn't really "lesser".

Making a blanket statement about Air Force based on them being in the MWC and losing to a common opponent has been proven to be not a very good predictor of Cal success in the past. So historically speaking, SOS means very little when it comes to bowl games.

New Mexico almost beat Arizona after all. And Arizona had Scooby Wright back at LB and playing well.

In general, the MWC has competed well against the pac-12 in bowl games regardless of regular season results.

Respect the Falcons please.

We gonna mow them downnnnn!! CHOO CHOO

I think AFA is going to score some in the first half, but I think we may just see the best offensive game of the year by the Bears. We really haven't clicked all year. This might be the game where we go off.

heartofthebear;842618904 said:

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There is probably only 1 way Cal beats Air Force and that is if they score into the 40s. I expect the game to be similar to the ASU game.

Here's why based on a look at the team stats. at the NCAA site:http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/21

Cal is ranked 109th out of 127 FBS teams in total defense, giving up 455 yards/game. There are several teams ranked similarly that Air Force has played.

Air Force scored 58 points against #106 ranked Hawaii.
They also scored 35 against #97 ranked New Mexico.

It's true that those teams don't have great offenses and Cal does. But Cal's D is suffering from several key injuries at LB. Downs, Barton and Hamilton Anoi won't be playing. In addition some of the DLs are coming off injury and won't be 100%. That is a serious problem when facing a triple option team.

On the offensive side, Cal is ranked #8 in total offense, with 524 yards/gm. but Air Force is not far off, ranked #32 at 452 yards/gm. Boise St. is ranked #18 in the nation and Air Force held them to 30 points. That is because Air Force has the #23 ranked total defense in the nation, holding teams to 337 yards/gm.

The good news is that the Cal offense is healthy and reports are that they look good in practice.

One final statistical note (scoring offense and scoring defense):

Scoring offense for Cal is 36 points/gm. vs. Air Force at 33.6. However, scoring defense for Cal is 30 points per game vs. Air Force's 23.

The point is that both teams have good offenses but only one team has a good defense.

Is Cal's offense so good that it can overcome both a bad Cal D and a good Air Force D? That will be answered on Dec. 29.

Keep in mind that Cal came back to beat Air Force in 2007. However, the turning point in that game was not only the job Riley and his receivers did once he came in the game for Cal, it was also the fact that Air Force lost their QB late in the 3rd Q. Air Force did lose their starting QB earlier this year. But the replacement, Karson Roberts has had over 3 months to grow into the job. For example, his passer rating is 150.1, which would be ranked #26 if he had enough attempts (he has only 134 in 11 games and you need 15/gm to be listed ). Goff is #12 at 156.4

I'm not saying Cal can't or won't win. But I think some are disappointed that Cal isn't playing a better team. Well, Cal is playing about as tough a team as it gets match-up wise.

The good news is that Air Force is not particularly good in the turnover and special teams areas.

I think Cal needs to manage the clock and time-of-possession better than in the past. That means a heavy dosage of Watson, Enwere and Muhammed. But we'll see what happens.

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You are right that there is only one way Cal beats AFA. They show up. I think they'll manage.

Your failure to look at schedule makes the analysis poor

OaktownBear;842618943 said:

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You are right that there is only one way Cal beats AFA. They show up. I think they'll manage.

Your failure to look at schedule makes the analysis poor

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During this century the MWC is 6-7 against the pac-12 in bowl games.
So SOS is not a factor, unless you are going to make a big deal over that 1 game advantage.

BTW, who is going to show up at LB, a key position to stop the triple option? So no they are not going to show up, defensively.

Blungld: Cal put it together offensively in the 2nd half against ASU, so I think they will be ready offensively.

I'm not saying Cal will lose. I am just saying that it is a good bowl opponent for Cal. It will be a tough, long, close game.

Really hard to take this seriously given the huge variance in SOS. Schematically may be a bad matchup for our defense, but let's see what our offense can do against them.

It's really hard to take SOS seriously when it historically has little value in bowl games between MWC and Pac-12.

heartofthebear;842618954 said:

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It's really hard to take SOS seriously when it historically has little value in bowl games between MWC and Pac-12.

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The only history that is relevant is recent history.

SDSU has a good rushing offense too, we did well against them. Our main weakness on D is stopping the pass, so AFA is not a bad matchup.

AFA is #23 in Passing yards allowed, but only #43 in Pass effiency D, so they were successful defending the pass in large part by keeping opponents' offenses on the sideline, reducing their opponents' TOP and number of plays.

Therefore, the key to winning is to have some consistency on offense, convert on 3rd down and limit turnovers.

Cal's defense struggled against top-tier athletes, not with discipline. Air Force will get some yards and points, but if the Bears can be disciplined on defense, they should do well.

Q: How many yards did ASU get against Cal?
A: 192 rushing, 395 pass, for 587 of total offense - scored 46 pts.

Cal ran for 138 and passed for 542, for 680 total offense, 48 pts.

ASU is like Cal, 2nd division P12. I don't think AFA is on par, smaller, lower competition...but they run an oddball offense and statistically have a better D. Given Cal is thin at LB, DBs and DL...I think it's going to be trouble. But Cal can out shoot these guys in a shoot out.

Cal88;842618957 said:

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SDSU has a good rushing offense too, we did well against them. Our main weakness on D is stopping the pass, so AFA is not a bad matchup.

AFA is #23 in Passing yards allowed, but only #43 in Pass effiency D, so they were successful defending the pass in large part by keeping opponents' offenses on the sideline, reducing their opponents' TOP and number of plays.

Therefore, the key to winning is to have some consistency on offense, convert on 3rd down and limit turnovers.

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Air Force is rated above Cal in offensive passing effeciency.

That's a bit misleading as a stat though because they're near the bottom in passing yards/game.

Good point golden sloth, we've struggled stopping the run against Furd or USC that beat us in the trenches.

Cal88;842618984 said:

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That's a bit misleading as a stat though because they're near the bottom in passing yards/game.

Good point golden sloth, we've struggled stopping the run against Furd or USC that beat us in the trenches.

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Oregon too.

Playing AFA with 3 weeks to prepare for their option is a major advantage to us compared to only 6 days for a regular season game.

I greatly fear facing the triple-option offense (TOO). When you are in a league with a TOO, you play them every year and get used to how to defend it. But coming in cold (even with a couple of week lead time) against the TOO is difficult to do - your scout team doesn't do it as well or as quickly as the true opponent. And Cal hasn't done too well against the TOO - I remember the University of Nevada gave us fits even though we were favored against them. If Air Force can gain an advantage in special teams (and right now, I'd say they are likelier to be more disciplined in that area than us), we could find ourselves in a real dogfight.

chalcidbear;842619000 said:

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I greatly fear facing the triple-option offense (TOO). When you are in a league with a TOO, you play them every year and get used to how to defend it. But coming in cold (even with a couple of week lead time) against the TOO is difficult to do - your scout team doesn't do it as well or as quickly as the true opponent. And Cal hasn't done too well against the TOO - I remember the University of Nevada gave us fits even though we were favored against them. If Air Force can gain an advantage in special teams (and right now, I'd say they are likelier to be more disciplined in that area than us), we could find ourselves in a real dogfight.

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Fortunately Air Force isn't a great STs team. We are better statistically in most areas, although their punting game is better.

Cal's schedule was the 7th toughest in the country, while Air Force's schedule was the 96th toughest. Stats mean nothing.
Go Bears!

Blue Bear;842619016 said:

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Cal's schedule was the 7th toughest in the country, while Air Force's schedule was the 96th toughest. Stats mean nothing.
Go Bears!

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That's why the lesser conferences often beat or scare the better conferences in bowl games.

MWC Bowl record since 2004 is second only to SEC in winning %. How is that possible if SOS is so important?

heartofthebear;842619026 said:

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That's why the lesser conferences often beat or scare the better conferences in bowl games.

MWC Bowl record since 2004 is second only to SEC in winning %. How is that possible if SOS is so important?

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Because they generally play lessor schools in lower tier bowls

NVBear78;842619028 said:

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Because they generally play lessor schools in lower tier bowls

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Actually they often play the pac-12.

And as you stated they are below .500 (6-7) against the Pac, so they have beaten up on lesser teams from other conferences evidently

heartofthebear;842618954 said:

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It's really hard to take SOS seriously when it historically has little value in bowl games between MWC and Pac-12.

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SOS is of course meaningful when comparing the sorts of team stats you raised. Amazing how much better our stats are if you exclude the ranked teams we played. Like I said, I don't know what will happen in this game, but the relative rankings you posted are not reliable metrics to compare these two teams.

majorursa;842619045 said:

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And as you stated they are below .500 (6-7) against the Pac, so they have beaten up on lesser teams from other conferences evidently

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Actually I was mistaken.
They are 4-4 against the pac-12 since conference realignment in 2011.
They are 10-9 against the pac-12 this century.

It is true that the pac-12 has a much better record against the MWC overall with a winning % around .700.

Air Force, however, is 3-1 since 1999, beating Washington twice and going 1-1 against Cal. In their 1 loss, they lost their QB in the 3rd Q.

We can go back and forth on what is the appropriate analysis. My point is that Air Force might give us trouble and they are a worthy opponent.

I'm not sure why that is such a hard concept to grasp considering that Cal does not stop the run and has major injury issues in their defensive front 7.

Unit2Sucks;842619050 said:

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SOS is of course meaningful when comparing the sorts of team stats you raised. Amazing how much better our stats are if you exclude the ranked teams we played. Like I said, I don't know what will happen in this game, but the relative rankings you posted are not reliable metrics to compare these two teams.

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The injury problems we have on defense have nothing to do with either the stats or the SOS. We have 4 serviceable LBs available for the game. How is that going to work to stop the triple option? In addition several of our DLs are coming off injury. That is what I mean by a match-up problem. Our areas of injuries do not match up well against their team strengths.

Do you play the 3-4 against the TOO? If so, HOB is right. Without top lateral LBs in the game, we could face serious trouble. So it will be up to the DLine to hit their QB on every play. Discourage the run and make them pass. I'd like to see Kragen do what he did early in the season and crush their QB.

I wonder if triple option teams have higher percentage in non-conference vs conference in season, and in season vs bowl games? Does having more than a week or familiarity year over year diminish its effectiveness?

heartofthebear;842619051 said:

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... We can go back and forth on what is the appropriate analysis. My point is that Air Force might give us trouble and they are a worthy opponent ...

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uh ... hmmmm .... yes, they might ...
BUT, is it possible that ... Cal might give AFA trouble and we are a worthy opponent ...
or is that not supposed to be asked or suggested?
Lawler is reported to be back and guys are healing.

I think most people here recognize that we should beat Air Force. If we don't it's really an indictment of our coaches. Also, the MWC is a shell of its former self.

btw, Navy, with its TOO offense is 1-3 against Power 6 conferences in bowl games since 2003 (1-4 if you count the old Utah).

dajo9;842619085 said:

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I think most people here recognize that we should beat Air Force. If we don't it's really an indictment of our coaches. Also, the MWC is a shell of its former self. ...

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nah ... the doomers and gloomers predominate with their "stats" that make them :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
It's a game against a respectable team ...
if we win, few negas seem capable of giving credit to the coaches for a victory and eight (8) wins
but, like you, some are saying 'no sweat' and let's get ready to "indict" the coaches if we lose.