Nicely done - I'll take a look.OdontoBear66 said:You might look into HYCB (funds), unless you morally don't wish to, "when" the recovery begins. They usually track equities and give very close to the average return of equites over the past 30 years with half the volatility. At times they have outpaced equities. Looking at five year rolling returns from 1988 to present, stocks way outperformed in 1996-2002, then the two tracked 2002-2008 and from 2009 through 2013 HYCBs outperformed. Balance MFs and when getting sell signals, go to short term Treasuries as a holding pattern. Too soon right now, but from Nov 2018 through Feb 20 2020 they did great with much less volatility than stocks.dajo9 said:
The market had two days up so I followed my rule and bought back in this morning.
Final score based on Total Return:
SPY +19%
VUSTX +41%
Gain from trade vs. buy and hold investor +23%
The market is up today on news of 3 million people having lost their jobs. I guess Wall Street has learned that the more the American people suffer, the more easy money will be thrown at them. Quite the economy we have right now.
I go back to being a buy and hold investor, which I usually am. I have initiated two macro trades in my life. 2007 - 2009 and 2016 - 2020. I hope it's a long time before I initiate another one. Here's hoping the next long bull rally is just around the corner, though I fear I just bought into a dead cat bounce and we have further down to go.
OT - Selling My Equities
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675 Replies |
Last: 4 yr ago by rkt88edmo
>You were talking about inflation, not interest rates. As if that isn't two sides of the same coin. How long have you been yelling about Zimbabwe in America? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years?
Inflation and interest rates are related. Hardly two sides of the same coin, And as for hyperinflation in the US, you must be thinking of someone else. That is a very recent prediction for me, and one deferred for 20-25 years if you had bothered to read what I posted.
>As for QE, you make a common error in thinking that QE1 has anything to tell us about its impact on interest rates.
Dude, it was YOU who claimed that QE had a simplistic, deterministic effect on rates. It was *I* who correctly stated that there were many factors affecting rates of which QE was only one, rendering direct measurement of rate changes ineffective in showing whether QE raised or lowered rates. But now I guess you have shifted to my position when rates fell and cling to your position only when rates conveniently rose. Meh. Oh, and your graph and article get some of the dates wrong/incomplete. You can blame the Atlantic (mostly) for that I suppose.
>Well, my brokerage account has a keen interest in accounting profit. I bet your Clients feel the same way.
Different entities do have different objectives. Now that I am retired, I have no "clients", other than myself. But when I did, of the tens of billions of dollars I managed, none ever targeted absolute return/accounting profits. All targeted funding costs, or in the case of mutual/hedge funds targeted a peer group/index. Those were institutional clients for whom "accounting profits" must include liability costs as well as asset revenues. That's how you run a business. You might ponder on that rather than blithely claiming everyone is doing it wrong.
Inflation and interest rates are related. Hardly two sides of the same coin, And as for hyperinflation in the US, you must be thinking of someone else. That is a very recent prediction for me, and one deferred for 20-25 years if you had bothered to read what I posted.
>As for QE, you make a common error in thinking that QE1 has anything to tell us about its impact on interest rates.
Dude, it was YOU who claimed that QE had a simplistic, deterministic effect on rates. It was *I* who correctly stated that there were many factors affecting rates of which QE was only one, rendering direct measurement of rate changes ineffective in showing whether QE raised or lowered rates. But now I guess you have shifted to my position when rates fell and cling to your position only when rates conveniently rose. Meh. Oh, and your graph and article get some of the dates wrong/incomplete. You can blame the Atlantic (mostly) for that I suppose.
>Well, my brokerage account has a keen interest in accounting profit. I bet your Clients feel the same way.
Different entities do have different objectives. Now that I am retired, I have no "clients", other than myself. But when I did, of the tens of billions of dollars I managed, none ever targeted absolute return/accounting profits. All targeted funding costs, or in the case of mutual/hedge funds targeted a peer group/index. Those were institutional clients for whom "accounting profits" must include liability costs as well as asset revenues. That's how you run a business. You might ponder on that rather than blithely claiming everyone is doing it wrong.
You were totally right on that one. Good call. I once again overestimated our lawmakers.oskidunker said:
Bought Carnival Cruise line at 8.9. Now 18.52. I wish I had bought more. Maybe it will go below 10 again. Bought 100 shares toget the $250 on board credit.
Sebastabear said:You were totally right on that one. Good call. I once again overestimated our lawmakers.oskidunker said:
Bought Carnival Cruise line at 8.9. Now 18.52. I wish I had bought more. Maybe it will go below 10 again. Bought 100 shares toget the $250 on board credit.
I think he'll get another chance to buy below 10. Cruise lines are going to be hurting for a while.
dimitrig said:Sebastabear said:You were totally right on that one. Good call. I once again overestimated our lawmakers.oskidunker said:
Bought Carnival Cruise line at 8.9. Now 18.52. I wish I had bought more. Maybe it will go below 10 again. Bought 100 shares toget the $250 on board credit.
I think he'll get another chance to buy below 10. Cruise lines are going to be hurting for a while.
Closed at 8.80 today. Did you pick some more up?
Yes. 100 shares at 9.5
Ok I hesitate to ask this since it seems like it could go down a rabbit hole, but I genuinely want to know and am hoping someone has some insights.
What exactly is the rationale behind using any taxpayer money to bail out the cruise industry? I get bailing out the airlines given their critical role in the economy (much as I may find it personally distasteful and hope that the taxpayers get some upside this time) but I don't get the cruise lines.
They are almost all (if not actually all) incorporated offshore, they don't pay federal taxes and they principally use non-US employees, I guess they pay some state taxes and obviously harbor fees in a small handful of states but to say that's a thin rationale for a US taxpayer bailout seems like a dramatic understatement.
I mean why don't we just bail out Gazprom or Aramco while we're at it?
What exactly is the rationale behind using any taxpayer money to bail out the cruise industry? I get bailing out the airlines given their critical role in the economy (much as I may find it personally distasteful and hope that the taxpayers get some upside this time) but I don't get the cruise lines.
They are almost all (if not actually all) incorporated offshore, they don't pay federal taxes and they principally use non-US employees, I guess they pay some state taxes and obviously harbor fees in a small handful of states but to say that's a thin rationale for a US taxpayer bailout seems like a dramatic understatement.
I mean why don't we just bail out Gazprom or Aramco while we're at it?
Sounds logical to me. Been thinking the same thing, but I believe something in the bigger picture dictates why we do it.Sebastabear said:
Ok I hesitate to ask this since it seems like it could go down a rabbit hole, but I genuinely want to know and am hoping someone has some insights.
What exactly is the rationale behind using any taxpayer money to bail out the cruise industry? I get bailing out the airlines given their critical role in the economy (much as I may find it personally distasteful and hope that the taxpayers get some upside this time) but I don't get the cruise lines.
They are almost all (if not actually all) incorporated offshore, they don't pay federal taxes and they principally use non-US employees, I guess they pay some state taxes and obviously harbor fees in a small handful of states but to say that's a thin rationale for a US taxpayer bailout seems like a dramatic understatement.
I mean why don't we just bail out Gazprom or Aramco while we're at it?
I guess we could ask lobbyists like Trump's good friend Pam Bondi why the cruise industry is worthy of taxpayer dollars.OdontoBear66 said:
Sounds logical to me. Been thinking the same thing, but I believe something in the bigger picture dictates why we do it.
Is it really a mystery Odonto?
Ah, I see, now I'm an avowed cheerleader for the cruise industry by proclamation of U2S. Such wisdom. Mind reader.Unit2Sucks said:I guess we could ask lobbyists like Trump's good friend Pam Bondi why the cruise industry is worthy of taxpayer dollars.OdontoBear66 said:
Sounds logical to me. Been thinking the same thing, but I believe something in the bigger picture dictates why we do it.
Is it really a mystery Odonto?
Sebastabear said:
Ok I hesitate to ask this since it seems like it could go down a rabbit hole, but I genuinely want to know and am hoping someone has some insights.
What exactly is the rationale behind using any taxpayer money to bail out the cruise industry? I get bailing out the airlines given their critical role in the economy (much as I may find it personally distasteful and hope that the taxpayers get some upside this time) but I don't get the cruise lines.
They are almost all (if not actually all) incorporated offshore, they don't pay federal taxes and they principally use non-US employees, I guess they pay some state taxes and obviously harbor fees in a small handful of states but to say that's a thin rationale for a US taxpayer bailout seems like a dramatic understatement.
I mean why don't we just bail out Gazprom or Aramco while we're at it?
The cruise industry is incorporated overseas, pays little if any US taxes, buys ships overseas, employs 98% foreign workers who remit their earnings overseas and generally generates economic activity overseas (except Puerto Rico and the USVI). The one exception being NCL's US flag ships running exclusively in Hawaii. If the cruise companies go bankrupt, the ships will not be destroyed, they will he bought and new lines will start up. There is no reason to bail them out with taxpayer dollars.
Certainly sounds logical to me, but then I better ask U2S what I think.calumnus said:Sebastabear said:
Ok I hesitate to ask this since it seems like it could go down a rabbit hole, but I genuinely want to know and am hoping someone has some insights.
What exactly is the rationale behind using any taxpayer money to bail out the cruise industry? I get bailing out the airlines given their critical role in the economy (much as I may find it personally distasteful and hope that the taxpayers get some upside this time) but I don't get the cruise lines.
They are almost all (if not actually all) incorporated offshore, they don't pay federal taxes and they principally use non-US employees, I guess they pay some state taxes and obviously harbor fees in a small handful of states but to say that's a thin rationale for a US taxpayer bailout seems like a dramatic understatement.
I mean why don't we just bail out Gazprom or Aramco while we're at it?
The cruise industry is incorporated overseas, pays little if any US taxes, buys ships overseas, employs 98% foreign workers who remit their earnings overseas and generally generates economic activity overseas (except Puerto Rico and the USVI). The one exception being NCL's US flag ships running exclusively in Hawaii. If the cruise companies go bankrupt, the ships will not be destroyed, they will he bought and new lines will start up. There is no reason to bail them out with taxpayer dollars.
OdontoBear66 said:Ah, I see, now I'm an avowed cheerleader for the cruise industry by proclamation of U2S. Such wisdom. Mind reader.Unit2Sucks said:I guess we could ask lobbyists like Trump's good friend Pam Bondi why the cruise industry is worthy of taxpayer dollars.OdontoBear66 said:
Sounds logical to me. Been thinking the same thing, but I believe something in the bigger picture dictates why we do it.
Is it really a mystery Odonto?
What part of my statement caused you to interpret it this way?
What I am obviously saying is that the cruise industry's political influence doesn't flow from its status as a us taxpayer or large employer of Americans but rather more unsavory means like lobbying and political contributions.
Pam Bondi lobbies for Carnival, for example.
I'm not trying to be obtuse here, I thought it was pretty obvious.
Inovio today implemented FDA approved phase 1 trials for Coronavirus vaccine.
http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-details/2020/INOVIO-Initiates-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Of-Its-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Plans-First-Dose-Today/default.aspx
http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-details/2020/INOVIO-Initiates-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Of-Its-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Plans-First-Dose-Today/default.aspx
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
True. But you're supposed to...graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
And while there's not a ton of blood, bodies are piling up and that is close enough I suppose.
Sorry for the distastefulness but we're all better off when the majority of the people make the right financial decision if they have the option too.
graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
Your assumptions and recommendations are too general. There are plenty of companies that are well capitalized, that have taken NO government money, that are still doing buybacks of their stock and have done well through the coronavirus pandemic. You know them very well dimitrig. They are the tech titans that have pulled the S&P higher (Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft). Not propped up by the fed. Looking better than they did in January. Be careful of generalizations.dimitrig said:graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
OdontoBear66 said:Your assumptions and recommendations are too general. There are plenty of companies that are well capitalized, that have taken NO government money, that are still doing buybacks of their stock and have done well through the coronavirus pandemic. You know them very well dimitrig. They are the tech titans that have pulled the S&P higher (Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft). Not propped up by the fed. Looking better than they did in January. Be careful of generalizations.dimitrig said:graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
I think (thought then, too) that these are overvalued because people fled to quality which drove up share prices beyond fair valuations. AAPL for example was at 150 in January of 2019. It is trading at 300 now despite no new products on the horizon. It is trading high mostly based on sentiment. It was trading at 300 pre-COVID so what makes it look like a buy at 300 now?
Same with the others. They are trading at (or in the case of MSFT above) the levels they were trading at in January 2020, which is way up from where they were in January 2019. So while I agree that these are good stocks to hold I wouldn't exactly be looking at them as screaming bargains right now. Maybe they were bargains on March 23 if you managed to time that perfectly but my thought is that - at best - they are fairly priced. If the market sees another drop then they will tank along with everything else and then maybe they will become bargains again.
If you want specific picks I have been studying XOM. Demand for gasoline is down at the moment and it may stay that way for awhile, but eventually it will increase again. Saudi Arabia will stop fighting Russia and/or some political event will cause oil shocks in the Middle East. XOM is trading near 20 year lows. It may never recover to where it was short-term but it should be able to make it back into the 60s while still paying a dividend. XOM is more diversified than most oil plays and whether we all go to green energy or not energy is always a good long-term play.
burritos said:True. But you're supposed to...graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
And while there's not a ton of blood, bodies are piling up and that is close enough I suppose.
Sorry for the distastefulness but we're all better off when the majority of the people make the right financial decision if they have the option too.
I am surprised that the market hasn't fallen a lot more than it has, all things considered. While we are down about 20% from mid-February, that was an all-time, record high.
Just look at the trajectory of the market over the past twenty years... and then look around at the situation that we are in now: This is a time to be getting out if you haven't already, not getting in. It's going to get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better.
"these are overvalued" by whom...IBD is a pretty solid evaluator of equities and it has MSFT $5.00 from a $180 BP right now, and AAPL surpassing a cup with handle Buy Point of $288 at $289. I agree with you that they have both run up, but some see more to the run. Others not so. But my point was not whether or not one should be buying into this market right now, but the fact that you espoused "selling everything". I don't agree. I have held AAPL (well before the 7 for 1 split when at $700) and MSFT among other tech giants for years in a well diversified portfolio.dimitrig said:OdontoBear66 said:Your assumptions and recommendations are too general. There are plenty of companies that are well capitalized, that have taken NO government money, that are still doing buybacks of their stock and have done well through the coronavirus pandemic. You know them very well dimitrig. They are the tech titans that have pulled the S&P higher (Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft). Not propped up by the fed. Looking better than they did in January. Be careful of generalizations.dimitrig said:graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
I think (thought then, too) that these are overvalued because people fled to quality which drove up share prices beyond fair valuations. AAPL for example was at 150 in January of 2019. It is trading at 300 now despite no new products on the horizon. It is trading high mostly based on sentiment. It was trading at 300 pre-COVID so what makes it look like a buy at 300 now?
Same with the others. They are trading at (or in the case of MSFT above) the levels they were trading at in January 2020, which is way up from where they were in January 2019. So while I agree that these are good stocks to hold I wouldn't exactly be looking at them as screaming bargains right now. Maybe they were bargains on March 23 if you managed to time that perfectly but my thought is that - at best - they are fairly priced. If the market sees another drop then they will tank along with everything else and then maybe they will become bargains again.
If you want specific picks I have been studying XOM. Demand for gasoline is down at the moment and it may stay that way for awhile, but eventually it will increase again. Saudi Arabia will stop fighting Russia and/or some political event will cause oil shocks in the Middle East. XOM is trading near 20 year lows. It may never recover to where it was short-term but it should be able to make it back into the 60s while still paying a dividend. XOM is more diversified than most oil plays and whether we all go to green energy or not energy is always a good long-term play.
XOM and demand will "eventually increase again". Most agree that barrel price is two years away from the best of oil companies to be breaking even (consensus estimates around $35 per barrel next year). Why wait? That is what I call a much "too patient" value call. And XOM is not even the best of breed. CVX is with its capitalization. Regardless, you were calling sell of your equities. I suggested much too general a call. Sell some and keep your powder dry, maybe not a bad idea. Run for the hills. A bad idea.
Conversely, I am having a ball with a grandchild (22 years old), newly in the work force post college graduation and with her time span it is a wonderful time to buy. A portfolio of well diversified TRowe Price mutual funds with double digit annual performance for 5-10 years, and a number of shoot the moon stocks of solid companies (MSFT, AAPL, V, AMD, UNH, JNJ, JPM, COST, AMZN) will serve her well for 40+ years. It all depends on your time span.
So then you're shorting? I'm buying more with every paycheck. Probably the wrong move. I've been called stupid many many times throughout my lifetime.Big C said:burritos said:True. But you're supposed to...graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
And while there's not a ton of blood, bodies are piling up and that is close enough I suppose.
Sorry for the distastefulness but we're all better off when the majority of the people make the right financial decision if they have the option too.
I am surprised that the market hasn't dipped a lot more than it has, all things considered. While we are down about 20% from mid-February, that was an all-time, record high.
Just look at the trajectory of the market over the past twenty years... and then look around at the situation that we are in now: This is a time to be getting out if you haven't already, not getting in. It's going to get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better.
burritos said:So then you're shorting? I'm buying more with every paycheck. Probably the wrong move. I've been called stupid many many times throughout my lifetime.Big C said:burritos said:True. But you're supposed to...graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
And while there's not a ton of blood, bodies are piling up and that is close enough I suppose.
Sorry for the distastefulness but we're all better off when the majority of the people make the right financial decision if they have the option too.
I am surprised that the market hasn't dipped a lot more than it has, all things considered. While we are down about 20% from mid-February, that was an all-time, record high.
Just look at the trajectory of the market over the past twenty years... and then look around at the situation that we are in now: This is a time to be getting out if you haven't already, not getting in. It's going to get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better.
I am buying with each paycheck, too, but I am lucky enough now where even a year of salary won't move the needle too much on my portfolio so it is almost the same thing as not buying. That is quite different from moving all of my cash back into equities.
OdontoBear66 said:"these are overvalued" by whom...IBD is a pretty solid evaluator of equities and it has MSFT $5.00 from a $180 BP right now, and AAPL surpassing a cup with handle Buy Point of $288 at $289. I agree with you that they have both run up, but some see more to the run. Others not so. But my point was not whether or not one should be buying into this market right now, but the fact that you espoused "selling everything". I don't agree. I have held AAPL (well before the 7 for 1 split when at $700) and MSFT among other tech giants for years in a well diversified portfolio.dimitrig said:OdontoBear66 said:Your assumptions and recommendations are too general. There are plenty of companies that are well capitalized, that have taken NO government money, that are still doing buybacks of their stock and have done well through the coronavirus pandemic. You know them very well dimitrig. They are the tech titans that have pulled the S&P higher (Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft). Not propped up by the fed. Looking better than they did in January. Be careful of generalizations.dimitrig said:graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
I think (thought then, too) that these are overvalued because people fled to quality which drove up share prices beyond fair valuations. AAPL for example was at 150 in January of 2019. It is trading at 300 now despite no new products on the horizon. It is trading high mostly based on sentiment. It was trading at 300 pre-COVID so what makes it look like a buy at 300 now?
Same with the others. They are trading at (or in the case of MSFT above) the levels they were trading at in January 2020, which is way up from where they were in January 2019. So while I agree that these are good stocks to hold I wouldn't exactly be looking at them as screaming bargains right now. Maybe they were bargains on March 23 if you managed to time that perfectly but my thought is that - at best - they are fairly priced. If the market sees another drop then they will tank along with everything else and then maybe they will become bargains again.
If you want specific picks I have been studying XOM. Demand for gasoline is down at the moment and it may stay that way for awhile, but eventually it will increase again. Saudi Arabia will stop fighting Russia and/or some political event will cause oil shocks in the Middle East. XOM is trading near 20 year lows. It may never recover to where it was short-term but it should be able to make it back into the 60s while still paying a dividend. XOM is more diversified than most oil plays and whether we all go to green energy or not energy is always a good long-term play.
XOM and demand will "eventually increase again". Most agree that barrel price is two years away from the best of oil companies to be breaking even (consensus estimates around $35 per barrel next year). Why wait? That is what I call a much "too patient" value call. And XOM is not even the best of breed. CVX is with its capitalization. Regardless, you were calling sell of your equities. I suggested much too general a call. Sell some and keep your powder dry, maybe not a bad idea. Run for the hills. A bad idea.
Conversely, I am having a ball with a grandchild (22 years old), newly in the work force post college graduation and with her time span it is a wonderful time to buy. A portfolio of well diversified TRowe Price mutual funds with double digit annual performance for 5-10 years, and a number of shoot the moon stocks of solid companies (MSFT, AAPL, V, AMD, UNH, JNJ, JPM, COST, AMZN) will serve her well for 40+ years. It all depends on your time span.
I never said to dump your entire portfolio. I said I dumped 80% of it and I am glad I did. I sleep very well at night, my gains are locked in, and the market still has a long way to go up before I miss out on any gains from where I sold.
As for XOM versus CVX, CVX is at about a 12 year low. I think it is a more conservative play but with less upside. I have been looking at Shell as well. They cut their dividend to shore up the balance sheet which could be prudent. They are also making a bigger move into solar with stated goal of being the world's largest energy producer by 2030. Problem with Shell is the currency risk.
Anyway, I agree that over time the market only goes up. I just think right now is not the time to jump in with both feet.
In 2018-2019, I gradually reduced the percentage of my 401k that is in equities to about 5%. Since I retired a few years ago, this was probably a wise move, regardless.burritos said:So then you're shorting? I'm buying more with every paycheck. Probably the wrong move. I've been called stupid many many times throughout my lifetime.Big C said:burritos said:True. But you're supposed to...graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
And while there's not a ton of blood, bodies are piling up and that is close enough I suppose.
Sorry for the distastefulness but we're all better off when the majority of the people make the right financial decision if they have the option too.
I am surprised that the market hasn't dipped a lot more than it has, all things considered. While we are down about 20% from mid-February, that was an all-time, record high.
Just look at the trajectory of the market over the past twenty years... and then look around at the situation that we are in now: This is a time to be getting out if you haven't already, not getting in. It's going to get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better.
When the market first went way down this year (mid-late March?), I started wondering if and when it might be a good time to get back in, but then it went back up a little. Seems overpriced to me, all things considered.
Certainly and absolutely agree with your last paragraph, but then that's not what we were talking about. Cheers, and stay safe, and invest well.dimitrig said:OdontoBear66 said:"these are overvalued" by whom...IBD is a pretty solid evaluator of equities and it has MSFT $5.00 from a $180 BP right now, and AAPL surpassing a cup with handle Buy Point of $288 at $289. I agree with you that they have both run up, but some see more to the run. Others not so. But my point was not whether or not one should be buying into this market right now, but the fact that you espoused "selling everything". I don't agree. I have held AAPL (well before the 7 for 1 split when at $700) and MSFT among other tech giants for years in a well diversified portfolio.dimitrig said:OdontoBear66 said:Your assumptions and recommendations are too general. There are plenty of companies that are well capitalized, that have taken NO government money, that are still doing buybacks of their stock and have done well through the coronavirus pandemic. You know them very well dimitrig. They are the tech titans that have pulled the S&P higher (Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft). Not propped up by the fed. Looking better than they did in January. Be careful of generalizations.dimitrig said:graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
I think (thought then, too) that these are overvalued because people fled to quality which drove up share prices beyond fair valuations. AAPL for example was at 150 in January of 2019. It is trading at 300 now despite no new products on the horizon. It is trading high mostly based on sentiment. It was trading at 300 pre-COVID so what makes it look like a buy at 300 now?
Same with the others. They are trading at (or in the case of MSFT above) the levels they were trading at in January 2020, which is way up from where they were in January 2019. So while I agree that these are good stocks to hold I wouldn't exactly be looking at them as screaming bargains right now. Maybe they were bargains on March 23 if you managed to time that perfectly but my thought is that - at best - they are fairly priced. If the market sees another drop then they will tank along with everything else and then maybe they will become bargains again.
If you want specific picks I have been studying XOM. Demand for gasoline is down at the moment and it may stay that way for awhile, but eventually it will increase again. Saudi Arabia will stop fighting Russia and/or some political event will cause oil shocks in the Middle East. XOM is trading near 20 year lows. It may never recover to where it was short-term but it should be able to make it back into the 60s while still paying a dividend. XOM is more diversified than most oil plays and whether we all go to green energy or not energy is always a good long-term play.
XOM and demand will "eventually increase again". Most agree that barrel price is two years away from the best of oil companies to be breaking even (consensus estimates around $35 per barrel next year). Why wait? That is what I call a much "too patient" value call. And XOM is not even the best of breed. CVX is with its capitalization. Regardless, you were calling sell of your equities. I suggested much too general a call. Sell some and keep your powder dry, maybe not a bad idea. Run for the hills. A bad idea.
Conversely, I am having a ball with a grandchild (22 years old), newly in the work force post college graduation and with her time span it is a wonderful time to buy. A portfolio of well diversified TRowe Price mutual funds with double digit annual performance for 5-10 years, and a number of shoot the moon stocks of solid companies (MSFT, AAPL, V, AMD, UNH, JNJ, JPM, COST, AMZN) will serve her well for 40+ years. It all depends on your time span.
I never said to dump your entire portfolio. I said I dumped 80% of it and I am glad I did. I sleep very well at night, my gains are locked in, and the market still has a long way to go up before I miss out on any gains from where I sold.
As for XOM versus CVX, CVX is at about a 12 year low. I think it is a more conservative play but with less upside. I have been looking at Shell as well. They cut their dividend to shore up the balance sheet which could be prudent. They are also making a bigger move into solar with stated goal of being the world's largest energy producer by 2030. Problem with Shell is the currency risk.
Anyway, I agree that over time the market only goes up. I just think right now is not the time to jump in with both feet.
dimitrig said:OdontoBear66 said:Your assumptions and recommendations are too general. There are plenty of companies that are well capitalized, that have taken NO government money, that are still doing buybacks of their stock and have done well through the coronavirus pandemic. You know them very well dimitrig. They are the tech titans that have pulled the S&P higher (Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft). Not propped up by the fed. Looking better than they did in January. Be careful of generalizations.dimitrig said:graguna said:
Dumped all my equities the other day. Put my money into broad market funds in 2009. Road it until the other day.
The company I own works with thousand of small businesses across many industries. I see the pain these businesses are going thru now and the path forward is not going to be pretty. Get ready for a wave of bankruptcy's, foreclosures, etc etc.
It will be years before the economy is back to where it was in January.
Those companies are not publicly traded and being propped up by the federal government. I have been mostly out of the market (still about 20% invested) since January 31 and I have been amazed at the quick turnaround from the low. I have not been tempted to buy back in, though, except for my regular monthly contribution to my retirement account.
I would imagine that all of these bankruptcies are going to lead to reduced consumer demand going forward but the market is aware of this and yet the rally continues. I don't know what to make of that except that the market assumes business will get a few trillion every time they need it which has been true so far.
From my perspective there is still a lot more downside than upside here. I am not going back all-in until we have tested the low. If that never happens I am fine sitting out until we demonstrate some stability in the market. I am starting to bargain hunt, though. No purchases but I may moved another 10% or so back in to a handful of beaten down stocks that I think will have good prospects going forward.
I think (thought then, too) that these are overvalued because people fled to quality which drove up share prices beyond fair valuations. AAPL for example was at 150 in January of 2019. It is trading at 300 now despite no new products on the horizon. It is trading high mostly based on sentiment. It was trading at 300 pre-COVID so what makes it look like a buy at 300 now?
Same with the others. They are trading at (or in the case of MSFT above) the levels they were trading at in January 2020, which is way up from where they were in January 2019. So while I agree that these are good stocks to hold I wouldn't exactly be looking at them as screaming bargains right now. Maybe they were bargains on March 23 if you managed to time that perfectly but my thought is that - at best - they are fairly priced. If the market sees another drop then they will tank along with everything else and then maybe they will become bargains again.
If you want specific picks I have been studying XOM. Demand for gasoline is down at the moment and it may stay that way for awhile, but eventually it will increase again. Saudi Arabia will stop fighting Russia and/or some political event will cause oil shocks in the Middle East. XOM is trading near 20 year lows. It may never recover to where it was short-term but it should be able to make it back into the 60s while still paying a dividend. XOM is more diversified than most oil plays and whether we all go to green energy or not energy is always a good long-term play.
Decided to sell my entire stake in Zoom (ZM) after hitting a 150% return and put it all into XOM on Friday. One speculative bet for another. Another short-term play.
I am viewing the latest bounce as an opportunity to sell the mutual fund in a neglected 401K from a previous job. I think the next 6 months could be very raucous with the virus growing in states opening up prematurely, a full quarter of GDP hit being reported this summer, bankruptcies coming in mass and various fringe armed groups inciting violence leading up to the election in November, especially if it looks like Trump is going to lose.... Hopefully not and we have a peaceful transition of power along with widespread testing and then a vaccine with an economic rebound, but I'd rather be on the sidelines until that happens. Might even short some stocks.
Haven't logged-in for some time, but for those who chart the markets, the Naz made a double-top in what has been a V recovery... Not uncommon to see a rejection or reversal with this formation.
I took some off the table today, enough the pay-off the mortgage! A goal before retirement, so super excited. And, since it's after June 1st, estimated IRS payments not due until until Sep.
Hope all are well, in the markets and otherwise.
I took some off the table today, enough the pay-off the mortgage! A goal before retirement, so super excited. And, since it's after June 1st, estimated IRS payments not due until until Sep.
Hope all are well, in the markets and otherwise.
Sig test...
Why do you think xom is a good play in the short term?
Go Bears!
Stocks??
No need, trade equity and index options. Add in some futures trades and you have the arsenal you need to be successful.
Be sure to fire your investment advisor, they serve no purpose and are paid for doing absolutely nothing!!
No need, trade equity and index options. Add in some futures trades and you have the arsenal you need to be successful.
Be sure to fire your investment advisor, they serve no purpose and are paid for doing absolutely nothing!!
Cal89 said:
And, since it's after June 1st, estimated IRS payments not due until until Sep.
Well done and good planning on the liquidation post June 1!!!
Thanks man. Some accounts, still all-in, others took some profits, namely the QQQ... The S&P 500 still has a ways to go to reach its highs (double top), the small caps (Russell 2k) even more...UrsineMaximus said:Cal89 said:
And, since it's after June 1st, estimated IRS payments not due until until Sep.
Well done and good planning on the liquidation post June 1!!!
On the accounts where I'm not selling, I'll buy puts at perceived lofty areas, so if there is a correction, I can make some money on the way down, offsetting the hits to those long positions.
I've been selling calls on long positions (covered), sometimes to just collect the premium, other times as a way to exit the position, while collection the premium. Actually, I got out of a position today via such means (Wed expiration) as a stock was called from me at a target price.
Need to pay taxes on July 15th... Got a 0% balance transfer credit card, with NO balance transfer fee over a month ago. Free money basically, for 18 months as I recall. Chase Slate, for anyone interested. Will allow me to stay in my investments a little longer.
Sig test...
Currently up 47% on my Slack stock pick, still way undervalued at only $22B market cap. Also on a nice 30% run on silver.
Bear market rally?
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