Chapman_is_Gone;842823118 said:

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The threads in which you heavily participate usually end up on the OT boards. That says a lot about you.

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And ironically, you're participating in one yourself. This one is labeled OT, it's offseason, just ignore if you object so vehemently.

NYCGOBEARS;842823120 said:

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He likes OT discussions?

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Bingo.

Chapman_is_Gone;842823132 said:

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Bingo.

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Chapman, no way you're this much of a curmudgeon in real life. I'd bet a beer with you would be a hoot.

NYCGOBEARS;842823138 said:

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Chapman, no way you're this much of a curmudgeon in real life. I'd bet a beer with you would be a hoot.

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I'm a curmudgeon in real life but on this board I'm halfway decent

NYCGOBEARS;842823138 said:

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Chapman, no way you're this much of a curmudgeon in real life. I'd bet a beer with you would be a hoot.

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No. We need enemies to rile up the outrage machine that we all have inside of us. That's what I thought this board was for. A bunch of p/o'd cranky mid life FB fans armed with semi-intellect going at each others' throats. Singing kumbaya doesn't drive traffic. If you want a lovefest there is cyberbears.com(or I've heard, not that there is anything wrong with that).

dajo9;842822816 said:

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Look burritos, I generally agree with you. People who voted for Trump deserve what comes to them from a Trump administration. I just can't abide by the idea, mostly pushed by his allies, that he is doing what he said he would do. He is not. He specifically said everybody would get better, cheaper, health care, among the other things I listed. His campaign was a lie. Every day of his Presidency that he speaks he lies.

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A fair amount of the people who voted for Trump are so ignorant, I'm not even sure they can be held responsible. Our society, as a whole, has failed to some extent.

tommie317;842823147 said:

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I'm a curmudgeon in real life but on this board I'm halfway decent

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I don't talk politics much in real life because it's such unpleasant conversation. For real. I vent here, I guess.

In any case, as an outsider I read much of the football material but don't have a lot to add. What am I going to tell Beardog about the hips on our DB recruit?

Chapman_is_Gone;842823118 said:

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The threads in which you heavily participate usually end up on the OT boards. That says a lot about you.

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Chapman, you are my good luck charm, my little friend. You arrive and the Dow drops 238 points. Expect more tomorrow.

dajo9;842823200 said:

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Chapman, you are my good luck charm, my little friend. You arrive and the Dow drops 238 points. Expect more tomorrow.

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-popular-wall-street-stock-market-black-swans-gauge-is-at-a-record-level-2017-03-20

Black swan event is coming. Sell baby sell.

Wags;842821221 said:

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Market Commentary and Why I'm Bearish:

Inflows into ETF's have been running at a rate that is 4X that of 2016, which has lead to this rally lasting a lot longer than people had thought it could.

Based pretty much on "Animal" Spirits"... given that Consumer Confidence is the highest since 2001 and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) poll is at the highest since Feb. 2004. We are talking about the latter being in the 10th decile and the former in the 9th decile. The Atlanta FED puts out a GDP Now forecast which has Q-1 GDP running at only a 1.2% rate. However, it will take some time before the "Animal Spirits" actually translate into higher economic growth.

Also interesting to note, when the NFIB and Consumer Confidence is in the top deciles, the Energy Sector has historically been the best sector in the S&P 500. This, has obviously not been the case as it has been the weakest sector year to date. Another potential problem given that many companies in the energy patch have financed their growth via high-yield bonds. The HY sector has been hit lately by a double-whammy.... rising rates, and lower crude prices. Declines in the HY bond sector usually leads equities, but the timing of this can be rather challenging to pin-point.

Since 1900, post-Presidential election years have seen stocks down from 2/28 to the trough in H-1, 27 out of 29 times and 66% of the time the decline exceeds 5%.

For the first time this year, inflows into Equities have surpassed those into Bonds ($82 Billion vs $80 Billion).
I take this as yet another "contrary" type indicator that is reflective of this rally becoming long in the tooth and very much "believed" in.

Insider selling is the highest in roughly a decade and short-selling has all but disappeared..... reflecting complacency.

The NYSE A/D line (breadth) looks as though it might have peaked on March 1st, the trading day after Trump's "State of the Union Address". That week, also saw Investor's Intelligence Bullish Sentiment peak at 63.1% Bulls and only 16.5% Bears, for a Bull/Bear ratio of 3.82. We have since backed off a bit down to 3.05 as of March 14th, given that Bulls have pulled back down to 53.4% and the Correction Camp is now back up to 29.1% from an extremely low 20.4% at end of February.

Technically speaking, the S&P sold off from its recent high of March 1st (when it rallied sharply after Trump's "State of the Union Address") for 6 straight days and penetrated the 10 day moving average. When it does this, it heads straight for the 21 day moving average; which it did. Support was found at the 21 day MA and another rally emerged. Any close BELOW the 21 day MA (currently around 2370) would most likely confirm a trend change ... especially if accompanied by a penetration of the previous week's low in the S&P.

The majority of market index gains occur between November and April (90%), with Nov, Dec, and Jan. being particularly strong.
You can literally sit out the other 7 months of the year.... and especially the Summer and not miss a thing.
Hence, we are entering a seasonal "Danger Zone" with the market's valuation really stretched.
It's time to really scale back one's risk.

Shorter-term, markets have a historical tendency to sell off after a major options/futures expiration day like today.
For traders, next week should be most telling.

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

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This morning, the market broke the 21 day moving average and headed straight for the 40 day MA (2340.11 SPX)
As pointed out in my post last week, technical selling happens to occur in the week following a major Triple Witch expiration. The market was unable to make a higher high, and the Trump Reflation Trade started to unwind, causing a further loss of momentum.
Bank stocks (in particular) got hit hard today, as the yield curve flattened. BAC - 5.8%, WFC, - 3.1%, C - 2.6%
Hope some Cal Bears took some profits last week.

Should the 40 day MA not be able to hold, the market should decline to the previous breakout point, 2300, before finding some support.

dajo9;842823200 said:

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Chapman, you are my good luck charm, my little friend. You arrive and the Dow drops 238 points. Expect more tomorrow.

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The last five months sure have been fun in the market...sorry you missed out. I can't say I'm surprised you're betting against the market. I bet you're a wrong bettor at the craps table, too. The least popular guy at the table...that's Dajo.

Thanks for "venting" your "unpleasant conversation" on us, we really appreciate it. If I wanted a strongly biased and simplistic interpretation of politics, finance, and economics, I'd turn on KQED -- I don't particularly like having to wade through it on a football board. As I've said before, you are more predictable than my dog after a large meal, and your output is far more unpleasant.

NYCGOBEARS;842823138 said:

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Chapman, no way you're this much of a curmudgeon in real life. I'd bet a beer with you would be a hoot.

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NYCGOBEARS, you crack me up on almost a daily basis. I think we'd get along fine.

The thing is, nobody knows a damn thing about anyone else on this board, unless they've met in person. You understand that. However, I find there is an exception: those who constantly vent on politics and reveal that they see the world as only black, or only white, with no gray area in between, in such predictable fashion--those folks provide a true glimpse into their real worlds and what their families have to put up with.

Almost on a daily basis? Shid NYC never fails to crack me up. With impeccable timing

Chapman_is_Gone;842823450 said:

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The last five months sure have been fun in the market...sorry you missed out. I can't say I'm surprised you're betting against the market. I bet you're a wrong bettor at the craps table, too. The least popular guy at the table...that's Dajo.

Thanks for "venting" your "unpleasant conversation" on us, we really appreciate it. If I wanted a strongly biased and simplistic interpretation of politics, finance, and economics, I'd turn on KQED -- I don't particularly like having to wade through it on a football board. As I've said before, you are more predictable than my dog after a large meal, and your output is far more unpleasant.

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I was long the market from 2009 - 2016 so, once again your judgment is off. Funny you say that about craps though. The guy who taught me how to play (a friend's Dad) was a wrong way bettor and that's how he taught me to play craps. I play with the table though. More fun at the craps table to be with the crowd. Investing my savings is too important to worry about the opinion of the crowds though. In fact, the crowds are a great contrarian indicator, imo. I'd take the other side of your trade any day.

We all know you love to read what I write. You always come back for more.

burritos;842823203 said:

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-popular-wall-street-stock-market-black-swans-gauge-is-at-a-record-level-2017-03-20

Black swan event is coming. Sell baby sell.

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Burritos, you may be right, but that call was not right when this thread started. I will give up a little more of the profits since November, then if the trend continues adios time. Don't need the top or the bottom, just need to identify the trend when it goes whether it be up or down

OdontoBear66;842823475 said:

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Burritos, you may be right, but that call was not right when this thread started. I will give up a little more of the profits since November, then if the trend continues adios time. Don't need the top or the bottom, just need to identify the trend when it goes whether it be up or down

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Unless the market goes to zero and goes on forever, DCA's do better with down markets, while up markets make people feel better.

On this board it seems like there are no failed investment models. Everyone uses something that works all the time.

If you have performed the number of emperical tests that I have done with my CFA partner you would A) not devulge your model because how costly it is to find one that works on a consistent basis or B) Disclaim the heck out of what you are using because the model used is imperfect and has a sizable probability of not working.

Our firm uses probabilities of forecasted outcomes and our clients know that it means there is a chance the investment strategy employed fails at times. Therefore you need to consistently follow it to outperform the market.

It is wise the err on the side of caution at this juncture for those who are within 10 years of retirement age.

Go Bears!

Goobear;842823510 said:

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It is wise the err on the side of caution at this juncture for those who are within 10 years of retirement age.

Go Bears!

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I agree.

Goobear;842823510 said:

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On this board it seems like there are no failed investment models. Everyone uses something that works all the time.

If you have performed the number of emperical tests that I have done with my CFA partner you would A) not devulge your model because how costly it is to find one that works on a consistent basis or B) Disclaim the heck out of what you are using because the model used is imperfect and has a sizable probability of not working.

Our firm uses probabilities of forecasted outcomes and our clients know that it means there is a chance the investment strategy employed fails at times. Therefore you need to consistently follow it to outperform the market.

It is wise the err on the side of caution at this juncture for those who are within 10 years of retirement age.

Go Bears!

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I guess it all depends on how you define failed investment models. As I have mentioned, I have been in equity without taking cash out for over 20 years. As you can imagine, I have had losses during significant downturns. The same with my real estate investments. Even with my investments in Apple, Danaher, Priceline, J&J, and GS, I have long periods where my investments were down over that period. It all depends on the period I am considering. I never really sweated it because my horizon is still long ways out. As I come closer to retirement and I need to narrow the beta, I would start exiting stock market. But over a long period, I still trust the market. For example, my GS investments still haven't full recovered from where it was in 2007. However, for me, I trust the management of those companies, they have consistently outperformed their competitors, and they have strong financials without heavy reliance on nonsensical non-GAAP adjustments that do not align with how they run their business (I focus on non-GAAP but I also don't want to see adjustments that do not make any sense to how they run their business, adjust for recurring operational expenses, etc.). My methods had me lose out on the crazy returns during the internet boom when I knew people were making ridiculous amount of money trading options and expecting and getting crazy returns. And some of my friends cashed out at the right time during the internet boom or went from companies like Google ventures to their own funds, etc. and have made the kind of money that I could not imagine. But I also know my risk tolerance and my lack of skills in the areas that allowed them to make those returns. However, over the 20 years, I am comfortable with my returns (and not investing would have been even riskier) that could have been much higher if I knew how to time the market or if I had the faith to invest early in companies like Amazon or Facebook that I just could not understand. I may not become one of the billionaires, but I know I can retire comfortably, not worry about money, and sleep at nights without checking the market every single minute of the day. There is some value to trusting the method and having peace of mind.

There are no pat hands, but good, bad and better strategies. The important thing is to improve with a good return over the long run such that you "compound". Over the last 50 years what has been successful for me has been being in stocks consistently paying dividends and increasing that dividend payout over years, but always showing a nicely positive result in growth over the last five years. Couple that with a small percentage of your equity portfolio in momentum investing when the market is trending up only ( the AMZN, FB, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFTs of the world). Then deciding how much equity exposure you are comfortable with and allocating the rest to bonds/cash, both of which I find necessary but unglamorous. Let me add with the Growth/Dividend aspect of the portfolio, you need sector allocation and redefining with time (usually involves very little turnover), and also an eye to low payout ratios. I am less concerned with high dividend return (currently average about 2.6%), for the growth supplements the dividend payout. Works for me. So right now I am only worried about the momentum aspect which I watch closely Day to day. The rest is less volatile.

The proof of the pudding, which I haven't seen mentioned here, is this works through what one would call a complete market cycle. Retired 18 years ago last Dec. and have more now than I did then. Do recall 18 years ago was 1998 and we have seen the 2001 debacle as well as that of 2007-8

Goobear;842823510 said:

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On this board it seems like there are no failed investment models. Everyone uses something that works all the time.

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My model does really work all the time though.

-kap

Goobear;842823510 said:

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On this board it seems like there are no failed investment models. Everyone uses something that works all the time.


Go Bears!

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For most looking forward with any number of years to retirement their biggest investment worry is having enough at that time such that you do not run out. I looked at it differently from the standpoint of trying to maintain the asset base and living off its returns, leaving the rest at life's end. No question we prospered from the greatest stock market ever 1982-1999, and then coupled with two big reversals to threaten same, but low inflation of late not to eat into the base things have worked out very well. Things don't work all the time, but they have "over time". Just relayed above what has worked for us in hopes in may help others achieve same. Has nothing to do with any "perfect investment model" which I dare say doesn't exist.

sycasey;842821746 said:

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It's just stunningly bad, isn't it? Using up so much political capital on something that will (1) most likely fail to pass and (2) completely destroy Republican reelection chances if it ever does (not to mention actually killing people in the process). I'd put down even money that Trump himself doesn't even know what's in the bill, but for the Republican Congress it's such a bizarre play with so little potential payoff.

Obama took a lot of flack in passing the ACA, but he also boxed the GOP into a corner -- the law was already about as right-leaning as you could get for a universal health care approach that is still workable, so the current "conservative" party literally has nowhere to go, unless they want to actively strip their own constituents' health coverage away from them.

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Update on the GOP's crappy Obamacare replacement. For the last 24 hours the Trump White House has spent its time trying to whip up votes in the Republican House. They couldn't do it, and now the floor vote is delayed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paul-ryan-donald-trump-lose-the-battle-postpone-vote-on-aca-repeal_us_58d42251e4b02d33b749d494?

The art of the deal in action, folks. Are you tired of all the winning yet?

sycasey;842824302 said:

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Are you tired of all the winning yet?

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I'm exhausted.

-kap

Once upon a time this would have been a great thread.

sycasey;842824302 said:

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Update on the GOP's crappy Obamacare replacement. For the last 24 hours the Trump White House has spent its time trying to whip up votes in the Republican House. They couldn't do it, and now the floor vote is delayed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paul-ryan-donald-trump-lose-the-battle-postpone-vote-on-aca-repeal_us_58d42251e4b02d33b749d494?

The art of the deal in action, folks. Are you tired of all the winning yet?

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Why can't they just repeal the whole thing? It's like time travel.

dajo9;842823474 said:

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I was long the market from 2009 - 2016 so, once again your judgment is off. Funny you say that about craps though. The guy who taught me how to play (a friend's Dad) was a wrong way bettor and that's how he taught me to play craps. I play with the table though. More fun at the craps table to be with the crowd. Investing my savings is too important to worry about the opinion of the crowds though. In fact, the crowds are a great contrarian indicator, imo. I'd take the other side of your trade any day.

We all know you love to read what I write. You always come back for more.

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Congratulations on this post. While still completely off topic, it didn't mention politics even once. You're making progress. Baby steps. B-

burritos;842824452 said:

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Why can't they just repeal the whole thing? It's like time travel.

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Looks like Trump is forcing a vote tomorrow. Not sure what could change by then, so basically it's a dare. Gonna be interesting.

sycasey;842824302 said:

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Update on the GOP's crappy Obamacare replacement. For the last 24 hours the Trump White House has spent its time trying to whip up votes in the Republican House. They couldn't do it, and now the floor vote is delayed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paul-ryan-donald-trump-lose-the-battle-postpone-vote-on-aca-repeal_us_58d42251e4b02d33b749d494?

The art of the deal in action, folks. Are you tired of all the winning yet?

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Back in November, a semi-wise man on this board predicted that the GOP would tweak a few things on Obama Care, rebrand it as their own and get it passed through Congress very soon after January 20th, as an symbol/example of how effective they are.

The GOP's political savvy was overestimated, in this case. They are more effective when they're the minority party (where they are devastatingly effective).

How many days until they let Trump be impeached (and then later blame it on the Democrats)? 150? 200? 250? Should we start a pool? What counts as "the day": Impeached by Congress? Tried by the Senate?

Big C_Cal;842824790 said:

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Back in November, a semi-wise man on this board predicted that the GOP would tweak a few things on Obama Care, rebrand it as their own and get it passed through Congress very soon after January 20th, as an symbol/example of how effective they are.

The GOP's political savvy was overestimated, in this case. They are more effective when they're the minority party (where they are devastatingly effective).

How many days until they let Trump be impeached (and then later blame it on the Democrats)? 150? 200? 250? Should we start a pool? What counts as "the day": Impeached by Congress? Tried by the Senate?

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Once again, the Republican Party has proven itself good at winning elections, not so good at governance.

Bill pulled. Again.

http://www.vox.com/2017/3/24/15014202/house-ahca-vote-canceled-trump

I know I am tired of all the winning.

sycasey;842824810 said:

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Once again, the Republican Party has proven itself good at winning elections, not so good at governance.

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If they **** up tax reform then Trump is done and the GOP will be obliterated in 2018, they blast the ACA for 8 years and when they have all the leverage they want they put up the most detested piece of legislation perhaps in the history of the Republic? If the GOP gets annihilated next year then Trump may save face by going independent and make deals with the Democrats since Paul Ryan and the GOP leadership is doing him no favors right now. The GOP on the other hand could flip to impeachment to save itself but Trump's bully pulpit could incinerate any GOP movement in that regard and wipe them out anyway.

Big C_Cal;842824790 said:

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Back in November, a semi-wise man on this board predicted that the GOP would tweak a few things on Obama Care, rebrand it as their own and get it passed through Congress very soon after January 20th, as an symbol/example of how effective they are.

The GOP's political savvy was overestimated, in this case. They are more effective when they're the minority party (where they are devastatingly effective).

How many days until they let Trump be impeached (and then later blame it on the Democrats)? 150? 200? 250? Should we start a pool? What counts as "the day": Impeached by Congress? Tried by the Senate?

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Remember that Nixon was not impeached until enough Republicans chose country over party -- deciding that preservation of a fair election process was more important than keeping Nixon in office

Let's see if today's Republican leaders will have the patriotism to make the same decision.

GivemTheAxe;842825687 said:

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Remember that Nixon was not impeached until enough Republicans chose country over party -- deciding that preservation of a fair election process was more important than keeping Nixon in office

Let's see if today's Republican leaders will have the patriotism to make the same decision.

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If they do, while not denying that part of their motive would be genuine patriotism, it's also a little more political than that: Most mainstream Republicans would much rather have Pence in the White House. Then, they sell the whole thing to the typical Trump voter in the swing states as a move by the Democrats to get rid of "their guy".

Right now, it's "let's give him some rope and, if he hangs himself, so be it, we got Pence". Imagine if the Constitution said that an impeached/removed President was replaced by the runner-up in the previous election: Some Republicans could justify Putin's aids having an office in the White House next to Ivanka's.

If Trump were to be impeached it would take at least 1 year to accomplish and I would expect a grinding halt to the republican legislative agenda. I don't think an impeachment means Pence becomes president quickly and we are on our merry way. He becomes a lame duck president and we are at a standstill until 2021.