Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal89 said:

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Big C said:

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There is a saying... As January goes, so goes the year.

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How'd that work out in 2016? Dow was down 5%+ in January (with the worst start to a year ever) and ended up up 13%+ for the year.

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To be fair he didn't say it was a good saying

Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal89 said:

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Big C said:

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There is a saying... As January goes, so goes the year.

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How'd that work out in 2016? Dow was down 5%+ in January (with the worst start to a year ever) and ended up up 13%+ for the year.

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I've had been quite heavily invested for 8+ years, and even when this thread started, as my posts indicate. I bought a put on the market as insurance, to keep my long positions in tact. I believe I even posted such.

With respect to the saying, It's a saying, that's it... .like how certain months or time periods are typically better or worse than others. Never bank on it/them exclusively, but as with various indicators, when more than a few light-up, it becomes more compelling than just or two....

Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal89 said:

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Big C said:

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There is a saying... As January goes, so goes the year.

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How'd that work out in 2016? Dow was down 5%+ in January (with the worst start to a year ever) and ended up up 13%+ for the year.

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I agree with you. I still haven't liquidated any of my equity holdings, other than rebalance some of my holdings in certain stocks to allocate to others. I don't plan on selling. The problem with the current investment options are that there aren't any good investment options. Bond funds will continue to get hurt by potential for increase in bond yields (making the prior bond holdings less valuable) and equity will continue to be impacted by higher cost of capital for companies. Real estate is still expensive as an investment vehicle. The economy still looks healthy and, other than commodities (I won't even pretend to know how to invest in commodities so I won't invest), there aren't too many attractive options. As such, I will remain disciplined and look for buying opportunities for well-run companies. A correction was necessary and expected, but anyone who pretend to be able to time these corrections accurately wouldn't be posting here but jet setting with the other obscenely rich billionaires.

tequila4kapp said:

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I thought the only rule of thumb for non professionals was don't try to time the market. Whole lotta BI people trying to time the market...

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You're right, of course.

However, I've had pretty good "luck" the past couple of decades by selling when the market seems unbelievably high and buying at what appears to be somewhere near the bottom. But, yeah, some of my best decisions have been to hold myself back just when I started to think I had things figured out.

I've read Bogle. I understand why it's usually a bad idea to try and time the market. Sometimes it's irresistible.

There is no "timing" the market except when selling. Which is, only sell during an upswing. On a long-enough timeline, a buy will eventually return you something unless the asset is non-inflationary or collapses, so no reason to go short unless you need immediate liquidity.

Strykur said:

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There is no "timing" the market except when selling. Which is, only sell during an upswing. On a long-enough timeline, a buy will eventually return you something unless the asset is non-inflationary or collapses, so no reason to go short unless you need immediate liquidity.

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The only problem with timing the sell is that, unless you are looking at near term retirement or need near term liquidity, you will need to reinvest the proceeds in something else. If you need to reinvest in equity because you need to grow your funds, then timing the sell will require timing the purchase at a price hopefully below where you sold.

Strykur said:

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There is no "timing" the market except when selling. Which is, only sell during an upswing. On a long-enough timeline, a buy will eventually return you something unless the asset is non-inflationary or collapses, so no reason to go short unless you need immediate liquidity.

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Sincere question: If you buy because you feel that the market is low, is that not also "timing the market"?

Big C said:

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Strykur said:

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There is no "timing" the market except when selling. Which is, only sell during an upswing. On a long-enough timeline, a buy will eventually return you something unless the asset is non-inflationary or collapses, so no reason to go short unless you need immediate liquidity.

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Sincere question: If you buy because you feel that the market is low, is that not also "timing"?

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It's all timing. Some timing is good, some is bad. Some characterize good timing as good acumen. I think it's luck. And the luck isn't that you're in at the right/wrong time. It's that you've had a life course which enabled you to throw money into a system that gives your return at the click of a button. The second part of the luck is that you(or your loved ones) live long enough to benefit from the eventual positive return that is driven by human innovation and greed.

burritos said:

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Big C said:

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Strykur said:

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There is no "timing" the market except when selling. Which is, only sell during an upswing. On a long-enough timeline, a buy will eventually return you something unless the asset is non-inflationary or collapses, so no reason to go short unless you need immediate liquidity.

---

Sincere question: If you buy because you feel that the market is low, is that not also "timing"?

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It's all timing. Some timing is good, some is bad. Some characterize good timing as good acumen. I think it's luck. And the luck isn't that you're in at the right/wrong time. It's that you've had a life course which enabled you to throw money into a system that gives your return at the click of a button. The second part of the luck is that you(or your loved ones) live long enough to benefit from the eventual positive return that is driven by human innovation and greed.

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By this logic everything is luck. You may be right. I've had lengthy 'luck' discussions with my best friend and my daughter. Without boring everyone I'll just say that if it's all luck then why bother? What is the point of telling someone, "hey, good for you that you bought low and sold high but you were just lucky...with your parents....and your upbringing....and that time you avoided getting hit by that car...and with, well, everything. Good job though hanging onto that luck train."

I use "technical analysis" (various types) for my entries and exits. My buys and sells are much more desirable than some random approach. I say that objectively, as someone who backtests strategies historically, where the results are in the form of a chart that show purchase and sell points over a specified time period. The strategy can then be tweaked to improve upon the buys an/or sells. Similar, the same can be done in a live market, in a "paper money" account. TD Ameritrade offers such in their ThinkorSwim platform; allowing one to see what they can do with their play money...

Another example is my employer's 401K. I have been there like 18 years. At some point about 12 years ago they offered Fidelity Brokeragelink, for those who want to actively manage their retirement monies, allowing the contributor to select individual stock and even options. I signed-up immediately and moved half of my account balance to Brokeragelink, leaving the other half in several of the standard mutual funds. I don't have my notes at my side as I type, but in about three years, the value of the Brokeragelink account doubled that of the existing one that was buying every pay period, and holding indefinitely. At some point later when it was over 3x, I moved it all over to Brokeragelink. Being able to select from the universe of stocks and ETFs, many of which are commission-free, is quite nice compared to the usual limitation of a dozen mutual funds, many with expenses. Oh, selling covered calls too is damn nice and has made for a big increase in income generation...

In addition to learning technical analysis, which is very much an ongoing endeavor, the next single best thing for me has been learning how to use options; often to complement my equity strategies. The income generation, and I just did my taxes to serve as reminder, can become quite eye-opening. Selling calls on existing positions (covered) and selling puts on desired stock or ETFs can really make a difference...

Best to everyone.

82gradDLSdad said:

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burritos said:

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Big C said:

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Strykur said:

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There is no "timing" the market except when selling. Which is, only sell during an upswing. On a long-enough timeline, a buy will eventually return you something unless the asset is non-inflationary or collapses, so no reason to go short unless you need immediate liquidity.

---

Sincere question: If you buy because you feel that the market is low, is that not also "timing"?

---

It's all timing. Some timing is good, some is bad. Some characterize good timing as good acumen. I think it's luck. And the luck isn't that you're in at the right/wrong time. It's that you've had a life course which enabled you to throw money into a system that gives your return at the click of a button. The second part of the luck is that you(or your loved ones) live long enough to benefit from the eventual positive return that is driven by human innovation and greed.

---

By this logic everything is luck. You may be right. I've had lengthy 'luck' discussions with my best friend and my daughter. Without boring everyone I'll just say that if it's all luck then why bother? What is the point of telling someone, "hey, good for you that you bought low and sold high but you were just lucky...with your parents....and your upbringing....and that time you avoided getting hit by that car...and with, well, everything. Good job though hanging onto that luck train."

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While this reply was TIC, I agree with it. But I still bother just like I pick the fast lane on the freeway. If what I stated offended you, I apologize. There certainly are smarter people in the field who know what they are doing. Just like there are some drivers on the freeway who have the skill to weave in and out and get ahead in the congestion. But most people weaving in and out don't get anywhere appreciably further. And while most people would love to have their money managed by someone who REALLY knows what they are doing, most people are not qualified to identify who these people are.

http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1
[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]
[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]

Quote:

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• In 2007, Warren Buffett entered a million-dollar bet with the fund manager Protg Partners that the S&P 500 would beat a basket of hedge funds over the next decade.
• His S&P 500 index fund compounded a 7.1% annual gain over 10 years, beating an average increase of 2.2% by the basket of funds selected by Protg Partners.

---

[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]
While I wouldn't bet a million dollars, I'd bet that these hedge fund managers were vastly smarter than I in the realm of finance and investing. And like most on this board, we all beat 2.2%/yr. Not because we were smarter. So if it's not because we were smarter why then?

burritos said:

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http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1
[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]
[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]

Quote:

---

• In 2007, Warren Buffett entered a million-dollar bet with the fund manager Protg Partners that the S&P 500 would beat a basket of hedge funds over the next decade.
• His S&P 500 index fund compounded a 7.1% annual gain over 10 years, beating an average increase of 2.2% by the basket of funds selected by Protg Partners.

---

[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]
While I wouldn't bet a million dollars, I'd bet that these hedge fund managers were vastly smarter than I in the realm of finance and investing. And like most on this board, we all beat 2.2%/yr. Not because we were smarter. So if it's not because we were smarter why then?

---

Many many smart finance people have written that while active managers can beat the market most don't over the long run. They conclude that most people are better off investing in globally diversified funds. That's what I decided to do years ago after reading that. Am I smarter than those fund managers that I've beaten or just lucky? Or both?

Btw, you haven't offended me one bit. These are good discussions to have even if very little gets resolved.

82gradDLSdad said:

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burritos said:

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http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1
[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]
[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]

Quote:

---

• In 2007, Warren Buffett entered a million-dollar bet with the fund manager Protg Partners that the S&P 500 would beat a basket of hedge funds over the next decade.
• His S&P 500 index fund compounded a 7.1% annual gain over 10 years, beating an average increase of 2.2% by the basket of funds selected by Protg Partners.

---

[url=http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1][/url]
While I wouldn't bet a million dollars, I'd bet that these hedge fund managers were vastly smarter than I in the realm of finance and investing. And like most on this board, we all beat 2.2%/yr. Not because we were smarter. So if it's not because we were smarter why then?

---

Many many smart finance people have written that while active managers can beat the market most don't over the long run. They conclude that most people are better off investing in globally diversified funds. That's what I decided to do years ago after reading that. Am I smarter than those fund managers that I've beaten or just lucky? Or both?

Btw, you haven't offended me one bit. These are good discussions to have even if very little gets resolved.

---

I'm in your boat. I consider myself lucky. And not stupid, which is not the same thing as smart.

These threads aren't meant to get resolved.

I consider myself lucky also. I have essentially 2 sets of market investments, one set is with a financial advisor who in my experience smooths out the bumps, the second set is my "monopoly" money that I invest for fun and challenge. I have been in the market around 40 years where I buy and sell individual stocks. I do use covered calls to help get more profit. An example is I bought Tesla stocks about 2 years ago, and during that time I have recovered 39% of my initial investment in the stock from covered calls. And the stock is currently up more than 80%.

I am retired, but my "monopoly" money is almost entirely invested in stocks because my net worth can suffer a 25% hit and it will not materially affect my retirement.

digitcallous said:

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I consider myself lucky also. I have essentially 2 sets of market investments, one set is with a financial advisor who in my experience smooths out the bumps, the second set is my "monopoly" money that I invest for fun and challenge. I have been in the market around 40 years where I buy and sell individual stocks. I do use covered calls to help get more profit. An example is I bought Tesla stocks about 2 years ago, and during that time I have recovered 39% of my initial investment in the stock from covered calls. And the stock is currently up more than 80%.

I am retired, but my "monopoly" money is almost entirely invested in stocks because my net worth can suffer a 25% hit and it will not materially affect my retirement.

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Nice! Happy to see others using options. Some wrongly conclude that options are risky, but what you are doing with covered calls certainly is not. I sell covered calls exclusively to collect the premium, over and over again. And, when I've decided that I want to exit the position, at a specified price, think limit order, I might even sell calls against those shares, at that price. This way I get the target price, plus premium. In such a scenario, unlike the first one, I'm basically looking to sell...

The premium I collect from such activity dwarfs the dividends received, and I have some nice dividend paying stocks such as MCD and CSCO.

The management of 8 accounts is a fair amount work, but I can do so about 30-45 minutes a day, and an hour or two over the weekend. I look at it as a part-time job, one that I really enjoy.

I have begun the process of unwinding this trade.

On Friday I sold my long term U.S. Treasury bonds (VUSTX) for a total return (according to YCharts) of ~+41%
I have not bought back into the market yet but according to YCharts the Total Return on SPY is ~+14%
That currently puts me about 27% ahead of the buy and hold investor. I currently plan to buy back into SPY when there are two consecutive up-days.

Despite the recent drops, I clearly got the equity markets wrong. My one regret is that I focused in this thread on equities rather than bonds. I wish I called this thread "OT - Buying Long Term U.S. Treasuries" because what I got very correct were interest rates and the impact on U.S. Treasuries.

Interest rates were mostly flat during the runup in equities and began to go down a lot starting in November 2018 (bond prices up). Wall Street has no clue what drives interest rates in the long run. Understanding interest rates means understanding wealth inequality and that is anathema to Wall Street. Interest rates have been going down, in general, since 1982 when Reagan cut taxes for the wealthy. We have subsequently had big cuts for the rich from GWB and Trump. All of this (and other things) has caused wealth inequality to go up. Wealth inequality creates a big pool of private wealth looking for assets to buy. This demand drives up all asset classes and, I would argue, adds to volatility in the equity markets. But it also drives up prices for bonds, which drives down interest rates. Interest rates will continue on the downward trend that started in 1982 until we leave the trickle-down economy we have.

I hope everyone is healthy and safe.

dajo9 said:

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WI have begun the process of unwinding this trade.

On Friday I sold my long term U.S. Treasury bonds (VUSTX) for a total return (according to YCharts) of ~+41%
I have not bought back into the market yet but according to YCharts the Total Return on SPY is ~+14%
That currently puts me about 27% ahead of the buy and hold investor. I currently plan to buy back into SPY when there are two consecutive up-days.

Despite the recent drops, I clearly got the equity markets wrong. My one regret is that I focused in this thread on equities rather than bonds. I wish I called this thread "OT - Buying Long Term U.S. Treasuries" because what I got very correct were interest rates and the impact on U.S. Treasuries.

Interest rates were mostly flat during the runup in equities and began to go down a lot starting in November 2018 (bond prices up). Wall Street has no clue what drives interest rates in the long run. Understanding interest rates means understanding wealth inequality and that is anathema to Wall Street. Interest rates have been going down, in general, since 1982 when Reagan cut taxes for the wealthy. We have subsequently had big cuts for the rich from GWB and Trump. All of this (and other things) has caused wealth inequality to go up. Wealth inequality creates a big pool of private wealth looking for assets to buy. This demand drives up all asset classes and, I would argue, adds to volatility in the equity markets. But it also drives up prices for bonds, which drives down interest rates. Interest rates will continue on the downward trend that started in 1982 until we leave the trickle-down economy we have.

I hope everyone is healthy and safe.

---

The 401k pension program was created in 1978. That created the big pool of investors and capital. I generally am on board with your statement around demand and it's affect on asset valuation but see it as being proimarily driven by the pension program, not tax cuts.

dajo9 said:

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I have begun the process of unwinding this trade.

On Friday I sold my long term U.S. Treasury bonds (VUSTX) for a total return (according to YCharts) of ~+41%
I have not bought back into the market yet but according to YCharts the Total Return on SPY is ~+14%
That currently puts me about 27% ahead of the buy and hold investor. I currently plan to buy back into SPY when there are two consecutive up-days.

Despite the recent drops, I clearly got the equity markets wrong. My one regret is that I focused in this thread on equities rather than bonds. I wish I called this thread "OT - Buying Long Term U.S. Treasuries" because what I got very correct were interest rates and the impact on U.S. Treasuries.

Interest rates were mostly flat during the runup in equities and began to go down a lot starting in November 2018 (bond prices up). Wall Street has no clue what drives interest rates in the long run. Understanding interest rates means understanding wealth inequality and that is anathema to Wall Street. Interest rates have been going down, in general, since 1982 when Reagan cut taxes for the wealthy. We have subsequently had big cuts for the rich from GWB and Trump. All of this (and other things) has caused wealth inequality to go up. Wealth inequality creates a big pool of private wealth looking for assets to buy. This demand drives up all asset classes and, I would argue, adds to volatility in the equity markets. But it also drives up prices for bonds, which drives down interest rates. Interest rates will continue on the downward trend that started in 1982 until we leave the trickle-down economy we have.

I hope everyone is healthy and safe.

---

Second the healthy and safe. Good play on the long term Treasuries. Good story.

My bond RIA had me in HiYield Corporate Bonds from November 2018 thru February and we realized a very nice return. So they got a sell signal on same in late February and sold out all. They put the monies in a medium to long term fund (PGOVX) in late February---their safety position. Well in a matter of a week it went up 10% and then down 10% so I wound up unharmed and safe, but WOW for a Treasury??? Volatility is crazy.

As an interesting aside in these volatile times, most of our monies are managed but I am passionate about investing and help with our son (50% managed and 50% we manage), and our granddaughter (22, just starting in work force). Results from the high on February 19th (S & P at 3386):

Granddaughter down 29%----90% invested with only sale NKE. And yes she has a cash "comforter" of 3 months
living expense. And by the way the lessons she is learning now are invaluable,
especially with her hard earned dollars early in life. But she has seen the long
term charts and is a believer.

Son down 19.8%----40% cash which was increased 2 months ago (54 years old)

Old folks down 9.8%----Equity managed portfolio 36% cash, bond managed portfolio in short term Treasuries
Total Ratio: 55% bonds, 40% equities, 5% cash.

Thinking being that we need to invest with age in mind. Granddaughter has 43 years to build and invest. Don't time. All ahead full. Puts aside over 10% per month on her job.

Son is 11 years away from retirement, needs some powder dry to buy, buy, buy in a bit. Shopping list being devised now.

Old folks just cruising and don't need tons of cash other than to play with in equities. Took positions in Moderna and Zoom just late last week. We shall see.

It is just a matter of time and there is going to be one big SALE in America, but we have to get thru some hard times first. Wishing everyone well.

Put in a buy for Carnival at 8. I doubt it gets there but 12 today. 56 a month ago. Trump will give them money do I expect a recovery.

Sebastabear said:

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oskidunker said:

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Put in a buy for Carnival at 8. I doubt it gets there but 12 today. 56 a month ago. Trump will give them money do I expect a recovery.

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I think there's no way a cruise line bail out gets through Congress. The airlines are one thing, but the cruise lines are almost all foreign domiciled, employ mostly foreign workers and have ports in a very small handful of states (so little congressional coverage). I think these things are going down.

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Hey, I'm at the age where I get cruise line marketing all the time. What is incredulous to me is that they don't even seem to be trying to get business with their offers. Of course, now I guess that is all moot with the shutdown for a period of time, but leading up to that their bargain rates were not bargains at all for the risk one would be taking. About a week and a half ago we had that infected ship come in to Long Beach disembarking passengers and people were waiting to get on. Death trap incubators.

What do you mean they are not trying to get business? I would assume thats why they are advertising. Been on 25 cruises and love them have seen many wonderful places. Will go again but not any time soon

oskidunker said:

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Put in a buy for Carnival at 8. I doubt it gets there but 12 today. 56 a month ago. Trump will give them money do I expect a recovery.

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Republicans don't believe in bailouts, right? I would not want to be an equity holder in a travel related industry right now although I guess it's just a matter of time before golf courses get bailed out.

I'm all for taking steps to shore up employers but not to serve equity holders. To no one's surprise, Elizabeth Warren has a plan and I think it's a pretty good one. The focus of a "bailout" should be on protecting workers and other stakeholders but not equity holders who can bear their own risks.

OdontoBear66 said:

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Sebastabear said:

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oskidunker said:

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Put in a buy for Carnival at 8. I doubt it gets there but 12 today. 56 a month ago. Trump will give them money do I expect a recovery.

---

I think there's no way a cruise line bail out gets through Congress. The airlines are one thing, but the cruise lines are almost all foreign domiciled, employ mostly foreign workers and have ports in a very small handful of states (so little congressional coverage). I think these things are going down.

---

Hey, I'm at the age where I get cruise line marketing all the time. What is incredulous to me is that they don't even seem to be trying to get business with their offers. Of course, now I guess that is all moot with the shutdown for a period of time, but leading up to that their bargain rates were not bargains at all for the risk one would be taking. About a week and a half ago we had that infected ship come in to Long Beach disembarking passengers and people were waiting to get on. Death trap incubators.

---

I've been on several cruises and very much enjoyed them, but never again. What this crisis has taught me is that being in an enclosed ecosystem like that that you cannot leave if something goes wrong is just fundamentally a bad idea.

And if the government bails out the cruise industry I'm going to go nuts. If they don't want to be US citizens when it comes to paying taxes and following labor laws then they sure as hell cant be US citizens when it comes time to start getting checks from the public treasury.

Chapman_is_Gone said:

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dajo9 said:

---

I have begun the process of unwinding this trade.

On Friday I sold my long term U.S. Treasury bonds (VUSTX) for a total return (according to YCharts) of ~+41%
I have not bought back into the market yet but according to YCharts the Total Return on SPY is ~+14%
That currently puts me about 27% ahead of the buy and hold investor. I currently plan to buy back into SPY when there are two consecutive up-days.

Despite the recent drops, I clearly got the equity markets wrong. My one regret is that I focused in this thread on equities rather than bonds. I wish I called this thread "OT - Buying Long Term U.S. Treasuries" because what I got very correct were interest rates and the impact on U.S. Treasuries.

Interest rates were mostly flat during the runup in equities and began to go down a lot starting in November 2018 (bond prices up). Wall Street has no clue what drives interest rates in the long run. Understanding interest rates means understanding wealth inequality and that is anathema to Wall Street. Interest rates have been going down, in general, since 1982 when Reagan cut taxes for the wealthy. We have subsequently had big cuts for the rich from GWB and Trump. All of this (and other things) has caused wealth inequality to go up. Wealth inequality creates a big pool of private wealth looking for assets to buy. This demand drives up all asset classes and, I would argue, adds to volatility in the equity markets. But it also drives up prices for bonds, which drives down interest rates. Interest rates will continue on the downward trend that started in 1982 until we leave the trickle-down economy we have.

I hope everyone is healthy and safe.

---

Dajo in 2017: "I don't see the economy allowing for much of a further increase in stocks (currently at record levels and valuations only surpassed by the dot-com bubble)."

Fast forward 33 months from that date to February 2020: the S&P 500 has risen nearly 1,000 points from 2,433 to 3,393, GDP growth has remained strong, commercial real estate prices have reached record highs, and the economy has reached a point of record-low unemployment.

Dajo, my man, 90% of your original and subsequent predictions were flat out wrong. A diapered monkey could have gotten 50% of them right. Most people, when they post something foolish, hope that the post will slip off the front page. Yet, when one of your predictions looks temporarily better thanks to a once-in-a-century pandemic, you rush back to bump the post.

Folks, that, in a nutshell, is what makes Dajo Dajo.

---

I guess that's the difference between you and me. I'm putting myself out there and being accountable. I literally came back and said I got stocks wrong and I'm not hiding from that. I also got bonds right. I also made money relative to buy and hold.

This has the potential to be worse than 2008

Sebastabear said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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Sebastabear said:

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oskidunker said:

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Put in a buy for Carnival at 8. I doubt it gets there but 12 today. 56 a month ago. Trump will give them money do I expect a recovery.

---

I think there's no way a cruise line bail out gets through Congress. The airlines are one thing, but the cruise lines are almost all foreign domiciled, employ mostly foreign workers and have ports in a very small handful of states (so little congressional coverage). I think these things are going down.

---

Hey, I'm at the age where I get cruise line marketing all the time. What is incredulous to me is that they don't even seem to be trying to get business with their offers. Of course, now I guess that is all moot with the shutdown for a period of time, but leading up to that their bargain rates were not bargains at all for the risk one would be taking. About a week and a half ago we had that infected ship come in to Long Beach disembarking passengers and people were waiting to get on. Death trap incubators.

---

I've been on several cruises and very much enjoyed them, but never again. What this crisis has taught me is that being in an enclosed ecosystem like that that you cannot leave if something goes wrong is just fundamentally a bad idea.

And if the government bails out the cruise industry I'm going to go nuts. If they don't want to be US citizens when it comes to paying taxes and following labor laws then they sure as hell cant be US citizens when it comes time to start getting checks from the public treasury.

---

Agree with you on the airlines. If they don't want to be like the rest of the US taxpayers when it comes time to pay taxes, they should not be bailed out by US taxpayers.
If we really need to bail them out for our own good, they should give a BIG chunk of equity ownership to the US and agree to pay US states hereafter.

Unit2Sucks said:

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oskidunker said:

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Put in a buy for Carnival at 8. I doubt it gets there but 12 today. 56 a month ago. Trump will give them money do I expect a recovery.

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Republicans don't believe in bailouts, right? I would not want to be an equity holder in a travel related industry right now although I guess it's just a matter of time before golf courses get bailed out.

I'm all for taking steps to shore up employers but not to serve equity holders. To no one's surprise, Elizabeth Warren has a plan and I think it's a pretty good one. The focus of a "bailout" should be on protecting workers and other stakeholders but not equity holders who can bear their own risks.

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I'm a Warren supporter on this point.
Hope Joe B. chooses her for Veep (to join the Progressive Wing with the Centrist Wing of the Democratic Party
Unfortunately I don't think Joe has the guts to do what JFK did - Choose a running mate who has a strong personality and is from a different base within the Democratic Party (that is, LBJ).
[sort of like what JW did in selecting 2 former HCs as his OC and DC.]
If JFK had not chosen LBJ, there was little chance of JFK would have been elected.

hanky1 said:

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This has the potential to be worse than 2008

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Agreed, 2008 was mostly about financial markets with a hit on housing and potential loss of the auto industry. Those were dealt with effectively with monetary policy and loans/bailouts of specific industries.

This is a real economic shock. The hit on GDP in the second quarter could easily be 10%. When the bad economic data is released the market will tank even further. We could actually have deflation like 1929. Oil and gold are dropping. The problem is, we are already at 0% interest rates and already running a $1 trillion projected deficit. Would the Fed go to negative rates? Is there political will for $1 trillion more in "stimulus" and deficits well over $2 trillion per year?

calumnus said:

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hanky1 said:

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This has the potential to be worse than 2008

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Agreed, 2008 was mostly about financial markets with a hit on housing and potential loss of the auto industry. Those were dealt with effectively with monetary policy and loans/bailouts of specific industries.

This is a real economic shock. The hit on GDP in the second quarter could easily be 10%. When the bad economic data is released the market will tank even further. We could actually have deflation like 1929. Oil and gold are dropping. The problem is, we are already at 0% interest rates and already running a $1 trillion projected deficit. Would the Fed go to negative rates? Is there political will for $1 trillion more in "stimulus" and deficits well over $2 trillion per year?

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This event is going to represent a seminal change in modern history. It's crazy. Nationalism will accelerate over globalism after this. Economy will be in a long rut with nothing to trigger stimulus unless WW3 breaks out.

What is everyone so worried about? The adults elected their guy to fix our economy and lead the nation and he said he's dong a great job.

Quote:

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"The only thing we haven't done well is to get good press," he said. "We've done a fantastic job but it hasn't been appreciated."

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Sounds like he's got it all figured out and we just need to trust him and the rest of the Republicans to figure it out.

Are there any Republicans left on BI who feel good about the current administration and their ability to see us through this crisis?