Official National Championship Game Thread

4,066 Views | 44 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Bobodeluxe
drizzlybear
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I've watched Gonzaga pretty closely for a long time. (My basketball run of 30 years is a group of zags who transplanted their on-campus game to Seattle.) My theory on GU is that they are a much better November team than they are a March team. To be clear, I'm not saying that's why they lost so badly last night. They deserved their #1 seed (duh) and they played terrific basketball in the tournament. They ran into a buzz saw of a Baylor team that is not only outstanding itself, but played at the top of their game (perhaps motivated by being #2 all season long and finally getting their shot to prove themselves. Plus, Baylor cruised into the final game while GU played an extremely draining game).
But anyway, the big advantage GU has in November is they have more continuity from year to year than most elite teams. With Few at the helm for over 20 years now, GU knows exactly who they are and how they want to play year after year. They tend to have fewer early-departure players than most elite teams. They used to even commonly redshirt freshmen, which very few programs do anymore. They tend to have older players than most elite teams. For these reasons they enter each season closer to ready than most other elite teams who are often just getting to know key new players. However, the flip side of that is that they don't have as steep an improvement curve as the other teams, made worse by then going into two months of not consistently facing high level competition. Thus, GU is not improving from January to March the way other elite teams are.

To their credit (and also out of necessity), they play a very challenging schedule in November-December. But the fact (in my view) that they are disproportionately ready to play at an elite level in November actually has the effect of over-rating them a bit. And then their conference schedule has the effect of reinforcing that overrating while simultaneously depriving them of the ability to keep their blades honed for March.

The truth is, I think my theory was more applicable to Gonzaga prior to about 5 years ago. In the last five years their player personnel situation has looked much more like typical elite teams. Also, I have wondered if their 2017 team was better than this year's team.
sycasey
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drizzlybear said:

I've watched Gonzaga pretty closely for a long time. (My basketball run of 30 years is a group of zags who transplanted their on-campus game to Seattle.) My theory on GU is that they are a much better November team than they are a March team. To be clear, I'm not saying that's why they lost so badly last night. They deserved their #1 seed (duh) and they played terrific basketball in the tournament. They ran into a buzz saw of a Baylor team that is not only outstanding itself, but played at the top of their game (perhaps motivated by being #2 all season long and finally getting their shot to prove themselves. Plus, Baylor cruised into the final game while GU played an extremely draining game).
But anyway, the big advantage GU has in November is they have more continuity from year to year than most elite teams. With Few at the helm for over 20 years now, GU knows exactly who they are and how they want to play year after year. They tend to have fewer early-departure players than most elite teams. They used to even commonly redshirt freshmen, which very few programs do anymore. They tend to have older players than most elite teams. For these reasons they enter each season closer to ready than most other elite teams who are often just getting to know key new players. However, the flip side of that is that they don't have as steep an improvement curve as the other teams, made worse by then going into two months of not consistently facing high level competition. Thus, GU is not improving from January to March the way other elite teams are.

To their credit (and also out of necessity), they play a very challenging schedule in November-December. But the fact (in my view) that they are disproportionately ready to play at an elite level in November actually has the effect of over-rating them a bit. And then their conference schedule has the effect of reinforcing that overrating while simultaneously depriving them of the ability to keep their blades honed for March.

The truth is, I think my theory was more applicable to Gonzaga prior to about 5 years ago. In the last five years their player personnel situation has looked much more like typical elite teams. Also, I have wondered if their 2017 team was better than this year's team.

Yeah, I think this theory made some sense until 2015, but since then Gonzaga has made the Elite Eight four times and the championship game twice. They've also never done worse than the Sweet 16 in that period. I don't think they're really a bad March team anymore. Just haven't quite been able to go all the way.
Bobodeluxe
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SBGold said:

Pretty racist
New to this site?
HoopDreams
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Good post drizzly

Zags are obviously a top team, and a lot of their success is their veteran teams that are so well coached

But it seems their conference hurts their readiness for the dance and they run into at least one team that has a higher burst ability due to raw talent and athleticism
wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:

sycasey said:

concordtom said:

Gonzaga looked like a WCC team vs a true power five side. Upon reflection, who did Gonzaga play this season?

I don't think this argument holds much weight. Gonzaga always plays a tough non-conference schedule and this season was no different. They beat Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia. Then in the tournament they beat Oklahoma, Creighton, USC, and UCLA. Sure they looked bad in the championship game, but no one would have said "they didn't play anybody" going in.


it was tgat Baylor looked that good.
One of the best finals performance. They played defense, rebounded, passed, shot and scored well .. no real weakness in a dominating performance. Baylor won the game.
SBGold
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No, just surprised it's still allowed
joe amos yaks
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Overall best team won last night.
calumnus
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SBGold said:

No, just surprised it's still allowed


The moderators seem to tolerate it.
calumnus
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joe amos yaks said:

Overall best team won last night.


These were the two best teams. Gonzaga finished 31-1 and Baylor finished 28-2. Sagarin has Gonzaga #1 and Baylor #2 by a good amount. Ken Pom the same and also has Gonzaga as #1 in offensive efficiency and Baylor #2, with Gonzaga #11 in defense and Baylor #22.

The biggest difference is tempo and depth. Gonzaga is #7 in tempo, Baylor #213. Gonzaga goes 7 deep (players getting double-digits mpg), with no one else getting more than 7 minutes a game. Baylor goes 9 deep. Gonzaga's formula, play fast, short rotation, maximizes their advantages over weaker opponents and gave them an undefeated regular season. It is a tough formula for the Tournament. Playing fast gives you no advantage over an equally good team. Playing so many games against good competition tires out a team that plays fast with a short rotation. Baylor's more methodical play and deeper bench (fully utilized in a 19 pt win over Houston) left them rested and ready for the Finals. Gonzaga's OT thriller win over UCLA left them drained. The Finals the Zags looked tired and were playing against an fairly equal team, but well rested and energized. Once they fell behind they had nothing in the tank to come back. The refs also let the game be physical which played to Baylor's strengths. The result was more lopsided than it would be in any other circumstance.
HoopDreams
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wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

sycasey said:

concordtom said:

Gonzaga looked like a WCC team vs a true power five side. Upon reflection, who did Gonzaga play this season?

I don't think this argument holds much weight. Gonzaga always plays a tough non-conference schedule and this season was no different. They beat Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia. Then in the tournament they beat Oklahoma, Creighton, USC, and UCLA. Sure they looked bad in the championship game, but no one would have said "they didn't play anybody" going in.


it was tgat Baylor looked that good.
One of the best finals performance. They played defense, rebounded, passed, shot and scored well .. no real weakness in a dominating performance. Baylor won the game.
heard on espn radio that per kenpom, baylor had a top offensive rebounding and steal metric, translating to a high number of possessions, and that they used those high number of possessions in the more efficient manner by hitting a high percentage of 3s.

they basically concluded that baylor was the model for college basketball teams of the 2020s

Bobodeluxe
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Cal is right there.
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