I've watched Gonzaga pretty closely for a long time. (My basketball run of 30 years is a group of zags who transplanted their on-campus game to Seattle.) My theory on GU is that they are a much better November team than they are a March team. To be clear, I'm not saying that's why they lost so badly last night. They deserved their #1 seed (duh) and they played terrific basketball in the tournament. They ran into a buzz saw of a Baylor team that is not only outstanding itself, but played at the top of their game (perhaps motivated by being #2 all season long and finally getting their shot to prove themselves. Plus, Baylor cruised into the final game while GU played an extremely draining game).
But anyway, the big advantage GU has in November is they have more continuity from year to year than most elite teams. With Few at the helm for over 20 years now, GU knows exactly who they are and how they want to play year after year. They tend to have fewer early-departure players than most elite teams. They used to even commonly redshirt freshmen, which very few programs do anymore. They tend to have older players than most elite teams. For these reasons they enter each season closer to ready than most other elite teams who are often just getting to know key new players. However, the flip side of that is that they don't have as steep an improvement curve as the other teams, made worse by then going into two months of not consistently facing high level competition. Thus, GU is not improving from January to March the way other elite teams are.
To their credit (and also out of necessity), they play a very challenging schedule in November-December. But the fact (in my view) that they are disproportionately ready to play at an elite level in November actually has the effect of over-rating them a bit. And then their conference schedule has the effect of reinforcing that overrating while simultaneously depriving them of the ability to keep their blades honed for March.
The truth is, I think my theory was more applicable to Gonzaga prior to about 5 years ago. In the last five years their player personnel situation has looked much more like typical elite teams. Also, I have wondered if their 2017 team was better than this year's team.
But anyway, the big advantage GU has in November is they have more continuity from year to year than most elite teams. With Few at the helm for over 20 years now, GU knows exactly who they are and how they want to play year after year. They tend to have fewer early-departure players than most elite teams. They used to even commonly redshirt freshmen, which very few programs do anymore. They tend to have older players than most elite teams. For these reasons they enter each season closer to ready than most other elite teams who are often just getting to know key new players. However, the flip side of that is that they don't have as steep an improvement curve as the other teams, made worse by then going into two months of not consistently facing high level competition. Thus, GU is not improving from January to March the way other elite teams are.
To their credit (and also out of necessity), they play a very challenging schedule in November-December. But the fact (in my view) that they are disproportionately ready to play at an elite level in November actually has the effect of over-rating them a bit. And then their conference schedule has the effect of reinforcing that overrating while simultaneously depriving them of the ability to keep their blades honed for March.
The truth is, I think my theory was more applicable to Gonzaga prior to about 5 years ago. In the last five years their player personnel situation has looked much more like typical elite teams. Also, I have wondered if their 2017 team was better than this year's team.
