I'll disagree with some of this, with all due respect. Scholarships are left on tables because coaches don't or can't beat out many dozens of schools with good coaches, many of whom are excellent recruiters. There is intense competition, much of it unethical or illegal, out there. Look what Montgormery faced when he had all those scholarships available in 2013. He used 5 of them, but he only got two decent players, Bird and Mathews. The other three, Rooks, Singer, and RMB were not PAC12 caliber, in my opinion. Not as bad as Jones taking Winston and McCullogh, but still not very good. My point was to agree with Stu in that when you are starting at rock bottom, with the thinnest weakest rosters I've ever seen at Cal, as Wyking was and Fox is now, I feel it is better to build solid program and roster slowly with good decisions and long-term players, 3 and 4 year guys. Once the reputation and roster is established pretty well, you can take a flyer on a one-and-done, to maybe try and get your team to the next level. You bring in a one-and-done, and he suddenly becomes the center of your team, the focus of the offense, and the ball goes to him. And in a year he's gone. It is far worse when you are just starting out, like Cuonzo was, with a good roster, and then adding two one-and-dones, who would be gone, and then what are you left with? There just was no continuity from year to year.OaktownBear said:Bozeman left Braun with Sean Marks, Circus King, Kenyon Jones, and Sean Jackson as returning players Braun's second year. He easily could have left him with Eddie House, but he chose not to offer which is mind boggling given he had empty scholarships.SFCityBear said:The problem is that it is difficult to plan, and difficult to know how many scholarships a coach will have available in any given year. That is compounded by the fact that there are good recruiting classes with many good players available, and there are lean years when there are not as many good players available.stu said:To me sustainable means having 13 (decent) scholarship players on the roster every season. If we recruit 3 players each season we'll eventually reach and maintain a 12-player roster. We'll get to 13 by recruiting a 4th player once every 4 seasons, hence the 3.25 average.Quote:
What is your criteria for sustainability? Where does the figure 3.25 players every year come from?
Of course in the real world every team has fat and lean recruiting years, injuries, transfers, etc and may not be able to fill all 13 spots with quality players. So maybe an average of 3.0 recruits per year is more realistic. But Cuonzo didn't reach even half of that.
Right now it looks like we'll have 10 scholarship players this fall. With luck all will be healthy and good enough to contribute. The following season we'll lose Austin for sure, possibly also an unhappy or injured player or two. Then with a year on the job our coaches should be able to recruit 3 or 4 new players to get us up to a full complement.
After that the big question will be quality - will these recruits be good enough to win?
I can't blame the current mess entirely on Cuonzo. I do blame and criticize him for a lot of things, but this problem began way back in the Ben Braun era somewhere, maybe even earlier, with Bozeman. When Bozeman was fired, he left his replacement an outstanding roster. The trouble was they were all seniors. They had quite a run, but at the end of that first Braun season, they all graduated except Sean Marks and a guard, maybe McQueen. The next few years Braun filled the roster with good transfers.
The players which Mike Montgomery inherited from Braun, Randle, Christopher, Theo, and Boykin helped Montgomery win the PAC10 title in 2010, and then all graduated after that season on the same day. Monty had only Jorge and Kamp (returning to the team after recovering from an injury) to build a team around. He did not do a good enough job recruiting in the next few years, and was hit by Crabbe leaving early, plus the unforeseen Amoke situation. In 2013 he then recruited a large class, 5 players, Bird, Mathews, Singer, Rooks, and RMB. This was the nucleus for Cuonzo's first season at Cal. But all those players would be graduating at once, except for Mathews who left after 3 years in a dispute with Cuonzo.
Cuonzo's big mistake, knowing full well that the remaining 4 players would graduate after 3 seasons with him, was to sign one-and-done players Rabb and Brown, which would leave two big holes to fill in the next recruiting class after they had left. He lucked out a little bit, when Rabb decided to stay another year before leaving. What Cuonzo should have done was go full bore after good players, not top 10 or top 20 players, but good 4-star players who would stay 3 or 4 years, to build a base, with the talent evenly distributed between classes and positions as much as possible. Once he had that stable base in his roster, then he could think about bringing in a top 10 player like Rabb or Brown, to make the team even better. I don't know if Cuonzo had it in mind not to stay at Cal, but it sure looks like he went for all the publicity with signing Rabb and Brown, and parlayed that into a lucrative job at Missouri. He could care less about what he left for the next Cal coach and for the Cal fans. He left next to nothing. I think he left less for Jones than any Cal coach left for his replacement, but the problem began back farther than Cuonzo, IMO.
Long ago, people would say something was wrong with Braun because he had so many departures. Back then, I demonstrated that his departure rate was essentially the same as Campanelli and Bozeman. I didn't go back further. To the extent it is a "problem", it has been a normal situation for us for decades.
You are absolutely right that Braun left Monty with a really good class that graduated all at once. Fully reasonable to acknowledge that was a challenge for 2011 or 2012 or even 2013. Not 2019. Cuonzo has to shoulder the bulk of the blame. I also think that part of it is just the whole circumstances around his departure. I think that you are 100% accurate that he left less for Jones than any Cal coach has left for his replacement.
I've been over this many times. Signing Brown and Rabb was not a mistake at all, let alone his biggest one. He literally left scholarships on the table that year. And he left at least one empty scholarship the next year. Brown and Rabb did not cost us a single player, let alone any player that contributed as much as they did over a career, even if that career was only one or two years. Maybe he made a mistake in not filling his empty scholarships because he didn't think the players he could use it on were good enough. That would certainly be a far bigger mistake than taking Rabb and Brown. If he didn't take Rabb and Brown, the only change that would have changed is we would have sucked the one year we were good and we would have sucked worse the next year than we already did. His mistakes were not filling all the scholarships he had with quality players and not following up the recruiting buzz from signing Brown and Rabb or the successful year we had with them with any higher quality recruiting. If you are going to claim that Brown and Rabb was a problem, you have to explain how Noah Body was going to lead Cal to higher success.
As I've said many times, Cal has very few one or two and dones. They have never cost us another recruit. Cal's problem isn't one and dones it is the bottom of the recruiting class that cycles between leaving the scholarships open and taking flyers on really lousy players.
I'm going to offend the feelings of a lot of fans when I say anything critical of a star player, but I've never liked them as much as most fans, except to watch and marvel at their individual talent. As team players, or as members of a successful team, they usually fall short. When the ball went in to Shareef or to Leon, it never came back out. At least they were outstanding rebounders and that contribution was vital to their teams. But offensively they slowed their teams down, made them less than they could be, IMO. Cal was better without Shareef than with him the following year after he left. Rabb was in that category for me, in that his rebounding was his strong suit, and without it, Cal would not have been nearly as good. I've seen Rabb pass a basketball, and he is good at it, but either KO or Rooks could not hold the ball and finish with it, or Cuonzo told Rabb not to pass much. Other than pick and rolls, he was mostly a one-on-one player. I liked him a lot more than I liked Brown, as a player. I think Rabb would have been a much better player under better coaches like Braun or Montgomery or Newell. Brown was a better defender, but on offense, he was mostly eye candy, a great looking athlete, but a one-man show. I am alone in that I didn't like that team much, mostly the style the coach had them play. I know everyone points to the injuries to Wallace and Bird as the reason Cal failed badly in the NCAA, but honestly, I'm not sure that even with Wallace and Bird, Cal could have beaten Hawaii, which was hungry and extremely well coached. They had no top 100 recruit, and no recruits ranked above 2 stars as I remember it. Maybe one. That season Cal was a lousy road team, which was why they did not win the PAC12 and why they failed in the conference tourney and in the NCAA (all road games) IMO.
I keep going back to Newell, but he started out at Cal with two All-Americans, and had a lousy team that season. Gradually, he rebuilt the roster around Larry Friend, and had a little success. When Friend graduated was when Newell began to have really good teams. He loaded up on good players, and each year of the next 4 his teams got better and better. He made one of his players into a star good enough to play in the NBA, but it took 4 years. It will never happen these days, but I can only dream of what Rabb could have become, playing all four years for Cal, even under a coach like Cuonzo. I'm sorry we only got to see him for two. I consider the signing of Rabb and Brown, with no plan for the rest of the roster, or for the years ahead to be a failed experiment, and I hope we don't do it again. I prefer Tony Bennett's approach. He stocked up on good 4 star players, and Virginia got better and better. When the team was successful, players began to leave early, taking advantage of the publicity of success. I don't mind that much, unlike taking a player just because he has a high ranking in someone's eyes, knowing he will only stay in the program for a year. Rabb and Brown were supposed to be a springboard for us, to attract more 5-star players, but it failed badly, and we got nothing much out of it.
SFCityBear