Growler91 said:
I think we all agree we want four-year guys who develop, but you are generally not going to compete for the NCAAs without some consensus Top 100 players. What should Cal fans expect along those lines? Decent recruiters have pulled one per year on average.
For my money, Ben Braun is the Rodney Dangerfield of recruiting. He has been our best and most consistent recruiter in the last few decades. In addition to putting us in the hunt for Nowitzki and James, he gifted Monty his best team (comprised mostly of 4-year guys). In his last 11 recruiting cycles Braun pulled 12 top 100 players. And sorry, SFCityBear, DJ Seeley was a Braun recruit! Braun's consensus RSCI 100 recruits who stuck: Leon Powe (9), Jamal Sampson (23) Ayinde Ubaka (35), Brian Wethers (50), Patrick Christopher (57), DJ Seeley (71) Marquise Kately (78), Taylor Harrison (89), Devon Hardin (86), Dennis Gates (92), Donte Smith (92).
Martin averaged one a year but put us on the map for guys we just never would have had a chance at: Jaylen Brown (3), Ivan Rabb (5), Charlie Moore (58) and had us in the hunt for Swanigan. One thing a lot of fans overlook: he almost didn't get Brown and Rabb admitted and Dirks had to twist arms to make it happen.
Monty only landed three in six years: Jabari Bird (20), Gary Franklin (57), Tyrone Wallace (94). No comment on Franklin. His best recruit was clearly Crabbe who didn't make the consensus list. He had completely blown it with Rabb and Martin saved that situation.
Wyking Jones obviously just got one in Matt Bradley (73). Oh, and he's like our whole team right now. So top 100 guys matter A LOT.
I don't disagree that you need some top 100 ranked players. But you have to understand that only about 40% of them will ever pan out, either as individual players, or as helping their team to success, or both. And you also must understand that it is only the top say 30 players whose rankings are accurate. Those players are most likely to help your team. The drawback is that they are most likely to leave after a year, and leave a big hole for the coach to have to fill. Also, the accuracy of the rankings as a predictor of success goes down as the ranking gets higher. Players in the 90-100 ranking are far less likely to become really good players. Wallace (94) was an exception, and not the rule.
I was comparing Martin to Montgomery, which is a little unfair to Martin, because Montgomery had 6 years at Cal, while Martin had only 3 years. Comparing Braun with Montgomery is a little unfair because he had 12 years to Montgomery's 6, and 12 years to Martin's 3.
A few corrections: Braun got
11 top 100 recruits in 12 years, not 12 recruits, according to your list. If you add transfers Omar Wilkes (55) and Boykin (60) that would make 13. I left Seeley in your list, but I could make the argument that it took some persuasion by Montgomery to get Seeley to keep his commitment. I wish Braun had kept him. Seeley was a talented player, who sulked on the bench at Cal, because he wasn't playing, and when he did play, he gave about 50% effort. I wish Braun had kept him and taken him to Rice, instead of having him take up a scholarship on our roster. Montgomery also traveled to Oregon to get Braun commit Garrett Sim to keep his commitment, but he failed. Another correction was that Allen Crabbe was not unranked as you said, he was ranked #71 in the RSCI Composite consenus rankings for 2010. And a minor correction would be Patrick Christopher was ranked #47, not #57. And since you say Seeley was a Braun recruit, well, then by that logic, isn't Bradley a Martin recruit, and not a Wyking recruit? I know Sueing, Anticevich, and Baker were Martin recruits, and I thought Bradley was as well.
Braun was an OK recruiter, not great, IMO, but one thing he was even better at was judging ranked or unranked talent, either recruits or transfers, and he brought in so many good ones: Ryan Anderson, Amit Tamir, Midgley, Randle, Theo, Willkes (55) Boykin (60), Lampley, Mike Gill, Carl Boyd, Joe Shipp. Elson, Carlisle, Kilgore, Benson, McGuire, Kamp, Paris, and more. I think many of Braun's unranked players were better than most of his ranked recruits.
One thing I would say happened on Braun's watch was that the seeds of Cal's empty cupboard were laid when Braun turned over a roster where most of the starters were all juniors to Montgomery in 2008. In 2010, the all graduated and Montgomery's cupboard was pretty bare, He needed to get a lot of recruits fast, and while he got Crabbe, Seeley quit the team, and so did Franklin after the pre-PAC12 season, and Solomon took a long time to develop. If Braun had not been fired, he would have faced the empty cupboard as well, and maybe should have known better, because it had happened to him when he took over from Bozeman, who left him with a roster loaded with seniors, and even though they had a good run in the NCAA, it would take a few years before Braun could recruit enough players to get back to the NCAA again.
If you want to compare Braun vs Montgomery, how about doing it over their first 6 years at Cal:
Braun recruits: Gates #92, Smith #96, Wethers #50, and Sampson #23
Other good players: Lampley, Gill, Carlisle, Kilgore, Elson, Hughes, Boyd, Shipp, Van der Laan, Legans, Tamir
Montgomery recruits: Crabbe #71, Franklin #57, Wallace #94, Bird #20
Other good players: Jorge, Sanders-Frison, Solomon, Thurman, Cobbs, Kravish, Mathews
So I'd say that over their first 6 seasons at Cal, Montgomery did a little bit better in the quality of his ranked recruits, but Braun did a better in the quality and quantity of his unranked players. Just my opinion.