[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman] Amy's ongoing recovery from injury didn't prevent her from winning the C final of the [U]100 free[/U] just now. Her time of 55.38 may be quite some ways below her 54.85 PB, but it did beat Stanzi (55.69), Veronica (55.91), Beata (56.06) & Claire (56.45)'s times today!
Katie D slugged it out with the Olympians & big names in the A final, coming away with a very nice 4th place 55.19 (just off her 55.07 PB from last month)!
Er, guess I was way off with my guess about Katie's reasons for not going to Junior Worlds. According to USA Swimming, [COLOR="#696969"]"female swimmers must have been born in the years 1998, 1999, 2000, or 2001"[/COLOR] - well, KD was born in 1997...
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Hmmm, looks like LSJU may be making a play for Cassidy... :p [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
Kim Williams - [COLOR="#696969"]9 Sept[/COLOR] Happy Birthday Cass!! Much love �� @CassidyBayer
Megan Byrnes - [COLOR="#696969"]9 Sept[/COLOR] Happy bday 2 my crazy bff love u tons cass have a great day ��������
Cassidy Bayer - [COLOR="#696969"]5 Aug[/COLOR] @ [COLOR="#808080"]Northside ISD Aquatics[/COLOR] Kickin off #Phillip66Nats in sunny San Antonio☀️ w/ @mebyrness [U]Megan Byrnes[/U]: [SIZE=4]����[/SIZE] [U]Felicia Lee[/U]: Basic. So basic. [SIZE=4]��[/SIZE]
Michael Phelps - [COLOR="#696969"]11 Aug[/COLOR] Always fun to win some medals!!! #mpswim [U]Felicia Lee[/U]: this is so basic. Like you. So it's perfect.
[SIZE=4]Michael Andrew Leads US Jr World Championship Team With 5 Events[/SIZE]
Women Claire Adams (Carmel Swim Club): 100m back, 200m back Grace Ariola (Waves Bloomington/Normal): 100m back, 200m back Margaret Aroesty (Long Island Aquatic Club): 200 breast Cassidy Bayer (Nation's Capital Swim Club): 100m fly, 200m fly Lauren Case (Chattahoochee Gold): 100m fly, 800m free relay Hannah Cox (Upper Valley Aquatic Club): 200m free, 400m free Savannah Faulconer (Spartaquatics): 400m IM Brooke Forde (Lakeside Swim Team): 200m IM, 400M IM Gabrielle Kopenski (Texas Ford Aquatics): 800m free Hannah Kukurugya (Crown Point Swim Club): 200m fly Kenisha Liu (Brea Aquatics): 400m free relay Kennedy Lohman (Lakeside Swim Team): 100m breast Ashley McCauley (Marlins of Raleigh): 200m breast Stanzi Moesley (Roadrunner Aquatic Club): 100m free Beata Nelson (Madison Aquatic Club): 400m free relay Melissa Pish (Waves Bloomington/Normal): 200m free Lauren Pitzer (Lakeside Aquatic Club): 50m free Nikol Popov (Canyons Aquatic Club): 100m breast Sierra Schmidt (North Baltimore Aquatic Club): 400m free Samantha Shelton (Mission Viejo Nadadores): 800m free relay Ashley Volpenhein (Mason Manta Rays): 50m free Tatum Wade (Nashville Aquatic Club): 200m IM
Men Taylor Abbott (Nitro Swimming): 1500m free Michael Andrew (Indie Swimming): 100m back, 100m breast, 100m fly, 50m free, 200m IM Chandler Bray (Avon Community Swim Team): 200m breast Sean Grieshop (Nitro Swimming): 200m IM, 400m IM Zach Harting (Huntsville Swim Association): 200m fly Matthew Hirschberger (Nation's Capital Swim Club): 400m free, 800m free relay Ryan Hoffer (Scottsdale Aquatics): 100m fly, 100m free Grant House (Countryside YMCA): 800m free relay Michael Jensen (Upper Dublin Aquatic Club): 400m free relay James William Jones (Nation's Capital Swim Club): 50m free Austin Katz (Sarasota YMCA Sharks): 200m back Daniel Krueger (McFarland Spartan Sharks): 400m free relay Maxime Rooney (Pleasanton Seahawks): 100m free, 200m free Grant Shoults (Mission Viejo Nadadores): 200m free, 400m free Charles Swanson (NOVA of Virginia): 400m IM Michael Taylor (Dynamo Swim Club): 100m back, 200m back Michael Thomas (Upper Dublin Aquatic Club): 200m fly Reece Whitley (Penn Charter Aquatic Club): 100m breast, 200m breast Chris Yeager (Nitro Swimming): 1500m free
Staff Women's Head Coach Women: Chuck Batchelor Women's Assistant Coaches: Dorsi Raynolds, Jeff King, Bill Rose Men's Head Coach: Tim O'Brien Men's Assistant Coaches: Geoff Brown, Geoff Sheuer, Brent Arckey Physician: Tad Kremen
Two names that haven't been discussed are Kenisha Liu and Hannah Cox. Liu's an in-state sprinter and Cox could help in 500 Free, 400 IM, and 200 Free. Cox may not work as well as Mann, but probably more valuable to the Bears than Jacobsen. A Vermont pipeline could pay off every 40 years or so.
One of the downsides to the current Junior Team is there may not be a Cal lean on the team to build a bridge down the line. Baker, McL, Eastin, and Maija were in juniors together and Amy was on last year's junior team.
Two names that haven't been discussed are Kenisha Liu and Hannah Cox. Liu's an in-state sprinter and Cox could help in 500 Free, 400 IM, and 200 Free. Cox may not work as well as Mann, but probably more valuable to the Bears than Jacobsen. A Vermont pipeline could pay off every 40 years or so.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Cheers BD for bringing up these two interesting prospects!
Haven't followed Hannah's progress so will keep an eye on her.
Kenisha has actually been on our radar, just at a lower profile than some of the big names we've been focussing on - see these posts from Dec 2014/Jan 2015: [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
UrsusArctosCalifornicus;842434334 said:
looks as if we may get some updated data points for our [COLOR="#FF8C00"][U]2015 Dream Team[/U][/COLOR] along with a bunch of [COLOR="#800080"]2016 prospects[/COLOR] as early as the middle of next month!
there are some fresh names on those [U]Olympics Trials qualification[/U] lists who might be worthy of inclusion on our [COLOR="#FF8C00"]2016/2017 dream team[/COLOR] shopping list??
[COLOR="#A52A2A"][U]100m free[/U][/COLOR] (18&under) qualifiers include our dream teamers Abbey, Amy & Katie...as well as potential prospects Stanzi Moseley, Katie Drabot, Claire Adams, Veronica Burchill, Lauren Pitzer, Erika Brown & Paige Madden.
[COLOR="#A52A2A"][U]200m breast[/U][/COLOR] (18&under) qualifiers - Maija, plus recruits such as Emma Cain, Meghan Small, Savanna Faulconer, Allie Szekely, Lindsey Horejsi, Katie Drabot (!), Lauren Edelman, Kenisha Liu, Bailey Kovac.
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[COLOR="#A52A2A"][U]100m fly[/U][/COLOR] (18&under) qualifiers feature our 2015 dream class members Katie & Kathleen...with promising recruits like Veronica Burchill, Lauren Case, Vanessa Krause, Cassidy Bayer, Hannah Kukurugya, Victoria Edwards, Eva Merrell, Beata Nelson, Meghan Small, Alyssa Marsh & Amy Okada.
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[COLOR="#A52A2A"][U]100m breast[/U][/COLOR] (18&under) - Maija's on the list. [U]2016[/U] & [U]2017[/U] recruits of possible interest: Lindsey Horejsi, Nikol Popov, Allie Szekely, Emma Cain, Madison Winstead, Morgan Friesen, Zoe Bartel (2018), Kennedy Lohman, Tatum Wade, Halle Morris.
In reference to Danish backstroker Mie Nielsen (from the Missy thread), there are recent Cal ties to Danish swimming. Mathias Gydesen was an All-American backstroker and flyer for the Bears and a 2012 Danish Olympic backstroker. Bay Area alone is more populous than all of Denmark, so if there's mutual interest between Mie and Cal, it's known at this point.
Bigger issue is scholly allocation. Abbey takes one of Bootsma or Pelton. The other goes to one of Drabot, Adams, Mann, or Small. Internationals are ineligible for financial aid, so Mie only comes if Teri whiffs on all four. Blovad probably is in between Naze and Acker for scholly $s. Means that Bears can't afford three of Abbey, Drabot, Adams, Mann, or Small. Probably can afford two of Blovad, Hannah Cox, Lui, or Jacobsen.
Bears may have been able to afford Baker, McL, Abbey, Amy, and Eastin, but only because three were in-state. Vose was a back up and Riley Scott was probably never really in the picture. Siobhan Haughey was too expensive to be part of the Dream Team. Suspect Mie's already a known entity, but wouldn't fit financially.
Teri's recruiting strategy is like the book, not the movie, The Blind Side, by Berkeley resident Michael Lewis. The NFL draft values players who can make the passing game go or stop (QBs, WRs, DEs, shutdown CBs). Left tackles are highly coveted because they protect right handed QBs' blind side. Teri will spend for out of state and international recruits (Baker, Amy, Noemie, Cierra, Farida, Garcia, Bootsma, Pelton, Drabot, Adams) who make relays go. Lewis' other famed book/movie Moneyball explains why Teri seeks out undervalued Californians (Acker, Campbell) who can swim complementary relay legs. No need to overpay for out of state recruits who can't contribute on relays.
Bears may have been able to afford Baker, McL, Abbey, Amy, and Eastin, but only because three were in-state. Vose was a back up and Riley Scott was probably never really in the picture. Siobhan Haughey was too expensive to be part of the Dream Team. Suspect Mie's already a known entity, but wouldn't fit financially.
Teri's recruiting strategy is like the book, not the movie, The Blind Side, by Berkeley resident Michael Lewis. The NFL draft values players who can make the passing game go or stop (QBs, WRs, DEs, shutdown CBs). Left tackles are highly coveted because they protect right handed QBs' blind side. Teri will spend for out of state and international recruits (Baker, Amy, Noemie, Cierra, Farida, Garcia, Bootsma, Pelton, Drabot, Adams) who make relays go. Lewis' other famed book/movie Moneyball explains why Teri seeks out undervalued Californians (Acker, Campbell) who can swim complementary relay legs. No need to overpay for out of state recruits who can't contribute on relays.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]:beer: to your as always easy-to-understand and concise explanations on the budgeting options, BD! Figures tend to make my head go round, as if coping with all the stats that are so integral to this particular sport isn't enough already :p
Like your analogy too regarding Teri's strategy with reference to Lewis' books [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
BearDevil;842524562 said:
In reference to Danish backstroker Mie Nielsen (from the Missy thread), there are recent Cal ties to Danish swimming. Mathias Gydesen was an All-American backstroker and flyer for the Bears and a 2012 Danish Olympic backstroker. Bay Area alone is more populous than all of Denmark, so if there's mutual interest between Mie and Cal, it's known at this point.
Suspect Mie's already a known entity, but wouldn't fit financially.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Oh, Mie's been most certainly identified as a rising superstar in international swimming circles for quite some time now - seem to recall there was some excited chatter after her performances at 2011 SC Euros, the same year that was to see Missy break out big on the international scene & consciousness. Mie's 100m back semis time of 58.84 from Kazan is faster than any :bear: has ever been save Missy's 58.33 AR from London, trumping Natalie's 58.94 relay leadoff from Beijing as well as Boots/Liz/Kathleen's PBs which are in the low to mid 59 sec range. Incidentally the Dane stud turns 19 next month. Have quoted the original Mie posts from the Missy thread below, just for reference... [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
longseeker;842524385 said:
There was some great performances at FINA by a young Swede... can't recall her name right now except last name totally Swedish but first and middle names like "Mie" or something.... It would be great if we could land just one European or Canadian woman swimmer....
UrsusArctosCalifornicus;842524461 said:
Mie stergaard Nielsen?
Currently 18, holds the [U]Danish[/U] national record in both the 50 & 100m Backstroke, pretty decent in the 100m free as well.
Oh, incidentally also Denmark's fastest 200m freestyler in Short Course Metres...
Teri's said that she wants a few internationals on the team every year because it's consistent with the student body as a whole. That being said, unless Mie explicitly has expressed a desire to swim at Cal (like Farida did), think Teri focuses elsewhere.
Never say never, but kinda think Taylor Ruck will be the next planned international recruit. Stuff happens and Teri has plugged unexpected/unanticipated holes with internationals in the late signing period. Do think Jenna will come up big, but think Teri may still add a transfer to that class down the line. The symmetry of four high end recruits every year ensures the team will always be in the national hunt. Don't see many 9 person classes (recently graduated seniors) or 8 person classes (rising juniors) in the future. If diving becomes a bigger priority in the future, Bears don't want to leave any swimming points at home for NCAAs and they're already nearly bumping up against the 18 qualifier cap purely with swimmers alone.
Pending recruiting class will be the first one in the PAC-12 with guaranteed four year scholarships. International recruits will become even more risky. Since they generally require full rides to make up for lack of financial aid, they'll become increasingly more rare. Big Ten and PAC-12 will have a recruiting advantage with four year guarantees.
If another Bear decides to defer. could this change anything?
BearDevil;842524644 said:
Teri's said that she wants a few internationals on the team every year because it's consistent with the student body as a whole. That being said, unless Mie explicitly has expressed a desire to swim at Cal (like Farida did), think Teri focuses elsewhere.
Never say never, but kinda think Taylor Ruck will be the next planned international recruit. Stuff happens and Teri has plugged unexpected/unanticipated holes with internationals in the late signing period. Do think Jenna will come up big, but think Teri may still add a transfer to that class down the line. The symmetry of four high end recruits every year ensures the team will always be in the national hunt. Don't see many 9 person classes (recently graduated seniors) or 8 person classes (rising juniors) in the future. If diving becomes a bigger priority in the future, Bears don't want to leave any swimming points at home for NCAAs and they're already nearly bumping up against the 18 qualifier cap purely with swimmers alone.
If another Bear decides to defer. could this change anything?
School starts shortly, so if anyone else is deferring it's extremely short notice and would be nearly impossible to find a replacement. A second semester enrollee is theretically possible, but unlike Durden, Teri likes to get the bulk of her team qualified via mid-season invitational and improve seeds at PAC-12s. Batchelor's mid-season transfer last season was a disaster for both her and Florida.
Anyone who could help replace McL, Baker, Amy, Cierra, Noemie, Farida, Marina, Bootsma, or Pelton is probably an Olympian in their home country and doesn't want to screw around swimming SCYs for three months in an Olympic year.
Top 25 World Rankings [COLOR="#696969"](9/1/2014 to 9/16/2015)[/COLOR] for 18 and Under [COLOR="#696969"](born 8/17/1996 to 8/17/2001[/COLOR] ([U]LCM[/U])
Bears need to replace Li and Naze in the next two recruiting classes, especially in the 400 IM. Good options both years Mann, Small, Cox in 2016 and Schmidt, Harnish, and Rongione in 2018. Baker and potentially Drabot could swim the 400 IM, but they're too valuable in other events/relays.
Top 25 World Rankings [COLOR="#696969"](9/1/2014 to 9/16/2015)[/COLOR] for 18 and Under [COLOR="#696969"](born 8/17/1996 to 8/17/2001[/COLOR] ([U]LCM[/U])
Great find UAC! I hate going back to this subject, but always after seeing Claire's times I have trouble believing that we have been eliminated already. There is no way she wasn't one of the top recruits on Teri's list. I still expect to see her show up on recruiting weekend. I'm really warming up to the Hannah Cox bandwagon, especially since I think Mann and Horejsi are long shots. My priority list is still, 1. Drabot, 2. Adams, and 3. Small. I wish we knew more about our relationship with Small. A lot of my questions will be answered on recruiting weekend.
Drabot and Adams would have the most immediate relay impact. Mann and Small would also have big impacts, just not on relays. Hard to believe there was never mutual interest between Cal and Adams, but do think she may have better financial offers elsewhere. Guaranteed four year scholarships help most recruits except for the most elite. A total free ride from non-PAC-12 or Big Ten school may be subject to reductions year to year. PAC-12 schools may be hesitant to offer initial full rides if they can't be reduced. Isn't an apples to apples comparison.
Drabot or Adams with some distance/400 IM support would be awesome and set up 2017 well (breast, IM/distance, sprint, fly).
My priority list is still, 1. Drabot, 2. Adams, and 3. Small. I wish we knew more about our relationship with Small. A lot of my questions will be answered on recruiting weekend.
Small's reportedly interested in LSJU, Cal, 'SC, and Tennessee. Surprised that Georgia (club teammate Hali Flickinger) isn't on the list. Small could swim the 200 IM, 400 IM, and 200 Back for the Bears. Could swim the back leg on the 400 Medley. Amy would swim the back leg on the 200 Medley to save Small for the 400 IM. Bears add another sprint breast down the line and Baker's back in the mix too.
LSJU needs another backstroker, but they don't need IMers after adding Eastin and Williams in the last class.
Dunno about Adams, but would be surprised if Drabot and Small aren't in Berkeley for the first recruiting weekend. Small would also help with Harnish in 2017.
Dunno about Adams, but would be surprised if Drabot and Small aren't in Berkeley for the first recruiting weekend. Small would also help with Harnish in 2017.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman] Nice find, thanks - good reading there on Meghan & Courtney! :beer:
Hey I can picture and would happily cheer on the recruiting of Katie D & Meghan to the blue & gold, much as I would have otherwise loved to have won over Claire!
Adams may have more relay value than Small as was noted by BD, but with Abbey coming on board the same year, guess that no more than 2 additional full rides for high profile prospects were available, so Teri may have deemed the shoring up of our IM deficit a higher priority item (with both Meghan & Claire already having skills in the back)? Believe Claire is an A student so academic fit wouldn't likely have been a reason for excluding her for baby :bear: consideration...
Does look like from that article that Meghan does favour the state of California, and coupled with those photos of her celebrating with Caitlin @ Pam Ams, I would like to believe that Meghan would put us ahead of LSJU & USC, just as with Katie when it comes to her 2 fave Bay Area college choices... :p [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
----------- [COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman] Just a quick (well maybe not so quick in retrospect lol) question for you well-heeled experts here - have always wondered how the whole scholly offer thingy works in practice? :confused:
Seems to me it can get very complicated trying to step a very fine line between making an offer that a much sought-after recruit would find difficult to refuse, but potentially over-selling a promise which may not be possible to keep in full if the number of commits exceeds the available slots/budget.
Now will confess that I know next to nothing when it comes to this aspect of the recruiting business, so please pardon my dodgy ignorance if I happen to be babbling a wee bit of nonsense here :p
To take a completely hypothetical & imaginary scenario, let's simplify it massively and assume that Teri can only afford to offer one more full ride after Abbey & Keaton. Let's just say that Katie Drabot and Meghan Small are her 2 remaining top priority targets...well, alright, Becca Mann too in reality, but for the sake of this thoeretical consideration, let's pretend that Becca has already expressed an interest in another programme :cry:
When initially approaching the pair of aforementioned super prospects, does Teri hedge her bets and offer both a full ride banking on the likelihood that she'll end up winning over one but perhaps not both, and subsequently prepared to renegotiate in the event that the two ends up deciding to commit to Cal?
Or does she lay it upfront and let each candidate know that much as she'd love to have them, there's a chance that a full ride may not happen if some other favoured recruit also commits? This could be risky since top recruits are naturally much sought after and will already have very lucrative financial offers from other top schools, so they may feel more "wanted/appreciated" elsewhere and be less enthusiastic about accepting such a conditional offer, honestly presented as it may be.
I've also heard of coaches who will deliver a deadline date/ultimatum attached to their offers... :eek:
Then, what about backup plans if things don't quite go as planned... Or is Teri just supremely confident of her reputation/legend/record + the marquee/stellar brand name of the school in recruiting these elite prospects?
Do realise that money definitely isn't everything, there are usually more important priorities for these elite student-athletes (esp if they want to go to their dream school, or believe this to be THE programme that will develop their swimming and/or further their professional career), and additional supplemental financial aid avenues can always be explored.
The reality though is that the decisions of the parents involved are often a big factor here (finances being probably a priority for them lol), so much as we'd like to idealise the laudable reasons why these recruits may want to come here (good fit with the coach/teammates/school environment/academic standards, personal growth, contribution to the community, be the best one could be in both the swimming and outside of the pool etc), so I think that this has to be taken into consideration to boot...
Different teams and coaches value recruits differently based on their needs. Bootsma and Pelton are likely valued roughly the same and that's higher than Naze or Acker. Abbey will get similar money to Bootsma/Pelton and Keaton was valued somewhere near Naze or Acker.
Had it come down to Abbey and Siobhan, two swimmers who swim the same events, Teri would have taken Abbey over Siobhan and made that clear.
Drabot and Small are different swimmers and while there could be IM overlap, Teri would prioritize the swimmer who fit best.
Bears will have 20 total swimmers this season. 'SC and 'Zona will have 12 and 13 freshmen swimmers alone this season. How does that work going forward and how do they offer Small after already taking Stanzi and Wade in this class?
One thing to watch with Keaton Blovad is her 100 Breast times. Right now her best time is 1:01.02. Very good, but not a great time. That being said, still only 0.14 behind Marina's best SCY time, and she's still dropping time in other strokes. Not expecting a Miranda Tucker drop from 1:01.3 to 59.8, but if KB can drop to 1:00 mid she's not a breast scorer, but could be a medley breast option behind Baker and Marina. Bears still need Popov in 2017, but Keaton potentially can fill a lot of roles.
Allie Szekely is the bigger name and is higher ranked because of her 400 IM times, but Keaton has upside in free, back, and breast. KB's a great value pick up. Different events, but similar upside to where Bing, Piehl, Cheng, Farida, Acker, and Jenna Campbell were as froskies. Championship teams need role players. Bears have been fortunate to get off event contributions from superstars like Missy and Baker. Probably not enough room for KB and AS in the same class, but 200 stroke specialists like AS are extremely valuable for swimming tough non-glamour events (200 Back, 200 Breast, 400 IM), KB and AS would be perfect complements. An up and coming program couldn't build around Keaton or Szekely, but a team with championship aspirations and minimal relay holes could always use those type of swimmers.
Keaton has upside in free, back, and breast. KB's a great value pick up. Different events, but similar upside to where Bing, Piehl, Cheng, Farida, Acker, and Jenna Campbell were as froskies.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Too true. Keaton Blovad may have flown a bit under our radar as we haven't talked her up at all like several of the high-profile "stars" lol, but the 13th nationally ranked recruit has trememdous upside & versatility, and I for one am excited about welcoming our very first 2016 commit to the fold! (just as how we all embraced baby :bear: Katie McL who verbaled very soon after her official trip last year) :cheer [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
BearDevil;842526881 said:
Probably not enough room for KB and AS in the same class, but 200 stroke specialists like AS are extremely valuable for swimming tough non-glamour events (200 Back, 200 Breast, 400 IM), KB and AS would be perfect complements. An up and coming program couldn't build around Keaton or Szekely, but a team with championship aspirations and minimal relay holes could always use those type of swimmers.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Would love to see #8 Allie pay the campus a visit during the weekend of the Gramblling game, but guess that's looking less likely at this point? :cry: [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
UrsusArctosCalifornicus;842513281 said:
Still stubbornly holding on to a bit of a soft spot for Allie, and for Erika in the next tier down even if she's no longer local and thus less likely to be in play here. Would of course always welcome the wonderful Alyssa as our legacy recruit.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus;842513353 said:
Hmmm, Allie being unofficially wooed by Leah & the Cavaliers here?
Allie Szekely - [COLOR="#696969"]26 Apr 2015[/COLOR] @ [COLOR="#808080"]University of Virginia[/COLOR] S/o to @leahsmith19 and @kager_rager for the being the best tour guides ever✌️ #reunited #gohoos
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]The excite-o-meter/anticipation quotient is still feverishly rising as the 1st official recruiting weekend approaches though! :newnana: :bluecarrot:
Which famous candidate from the class of 2016 will we get a glimpse of that weekend... will it be the irrepressible, versatile free/IMer #6 Katie Drabot who has shared a history with Amy/Kathleen/Caitlin - will she be joined by the top ranked recruit in her class, equally versatile IM/backstroker Meghan Small? Oh, if this should come to pass: :woohoo
Not really expecting #2 Beata Nelson (sprint fly/back/free), #3 Becca Mann (distance stud, IMs, 200 fly), or #10 Lindsey Horejsi (breast) to make an appearance @ Berkeley, but OTOH would be a most pleasant surprise if any of these swim studs were to materialise on our campus, yay! :beer:
Then how about #5 Claire Adams who we all seem to be gunning for here: monster improvements recently in her already very strong backstroke prowess, coupled with NCAA scoring ability in the 200 free, plus oodles of 50/100 free relay potential - has ties with Amy, A grades in the classroom, and on paper would be a natural match for Cal considering our embarrassingly rich backstroke tradition etc. However, Claire has already publicly announced that she has narrowed her selection down to 3 programmes that are not named UC Berkeley, LSJU or UGA... :bawl:
Well, let's not forget Top 20 prospects such as #11 Erin Voss (back & distance), #15 Kirsten Jacobsen (distance), #18 Lauren Case (fly & mid distance - Bulldawg recruit maybe?), and #19 Asia Seidt (backs, 200 IM/fly).
Haven't even talked about locals & legacies at this point either, there are quite a number of them who it seems would be great mutual fits with Bears
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[COLOR="#B22222"]UPDATE[/COLOR] (in response to tedbear's comment 2 posts down lol): [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
tedbear;842527211 said:
Don't forget about Hannah Cox.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Haha how can I have possibly overlooked mention of the top Vermont recruit, Hannah Cox (middle distance free, longer IM), who will be repping Team USA @ Junior Worlds in Singapore in a week's time?!
Hey for that matter, let's also throw fellow Jr Worlds teammate Kenisha Liu (free) into the spotlight here, she's from Brea (in-state) and heartily endorsed by BD a while back :cool: [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
Bears will keep the number of recruits relatively low: Abbey, KB, Drabot, Small. Maybe Adams or Mann. Georgia has a lot of $s to spend, but is still hurting if neither Small or Adams visit. Really hurting if they don't get Case even though they're not hurting for flyers. Bears will probably bring in Marsh, Mykkanen, Liu, Isleta, Devine, and Simonds at some point. Abbey, Drabot, and Adams help the Bears on relays, but there are not too many holes there. Could see using half of this class on non-relay issues (distance, IM, 200 stroke depth).
Well, let's not forget Top 20 prospects such as #11 Erin Voss (back & distance), #15 Kirsten Jacobsen (distance), #18 Lauren Case (fly & mid distance - Bulldawg recruit maybe?), and #19 Asia Seidt (backs, 200 IM/fly). Haven't even talked about locals & legacies at this point either
If the Bears can add two of Drabot, Small, Mann, or Adams to Abbey and KB, there won't be any room for other high end recruits (Liu, Cox, AS, Jacobsen,Voss) no matter how valuable and coveted they are.
There will be some self selection going on and some calculated risks in who to bring in when. Acker, Farida, and Marina didn't visit early. All became national champions. Converesely Leah Smith, Linnea Mack, Meaghan Raab, Jenna Bauer, and Ella Eastin did visit the first weekend and none ended up at Cal.
All parties involved have thrived. Bears don't get every recruit they want, some recruits have zero interest in Cal, and Teri doesn't recruit everyone who could help the Bears. It's an imperfect system, but perfection isn't the goal. Putting the best possible team together given the constraints is the goal, even though it's messy.
Cox's 1:59.29 200 Free converts to 1:44.6. With Cierra, Abbey, Baker, and McL, Bears don't necessarily need another 800 relay swimmer, but Drabot, Small, Adams, and Cox could all fit and free up Abbey to anchor both medleys. Cox is pretty versatile, could help the Bears in the 500, 400 IM, 200 Free, and 800 Relay. Has upside potential in the 200 Back and 1650.
Lots of coming attractions in juniors, but need to watch Adams, Cox, and Liu.
--------- [COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman] Indeed, these are some very promising future :bear: prospects + future Olympians to keep an eye on... Jr Worlds should be fun & excitement-packed! Though lamentably won't be live-streamed: [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR] http://swimswam.com/no-live-stream-scheduled-for-2015-world-junior-championships/
tedbear;842461667 said:
For this upcoming year, I would rather fill some needs in Breast and Distance, instead of taking all the top rated prospects. In fact, I think we go a little more international this year, than taking all the top US high school talent.
BearDevil;842480958 said:
Relatively bullish on Bears' chances to repeat if Ledecky defers and Teri uses Abbey's 2016 $s on a sprinter or distance (transfer or international).
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]In deference to tedbear's longstanding wishes for an international recruit lol, assuming Teri can somehow work a miracle and shoehorn a pricey import into her 2016 & 2017 budgets whilst magicking away all potential cultural/social/academic/linguistic barriers haha, how about Russia's Arina Openysheva who had tore it up at the Euro Games w/7 medals this summer? Bears will be more than solid in the 200 individual & 800 free relay for the next few years thanks to the [U]Dream Team[/U] joining Cierra there, but Arina would present even more options with her strong middle distance chops that extend down into the 100 free.
Or perhaps Viktoria Zeynep Gunes from Turkey who's an elite class sprint & longer distance breaststroker with IM skills to boot? rooling
Then there's Tamsin Cook from Oz who could be the answer to our distance prayers...
All three aforementioned young women will be competing @ Jr Worlds next week! [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
Know jack about international school ages, but looks like Cook is 2016, Gunes is 2017, and Arina is 2018.
Breast is a 2017 need (Marina), but Popov (in-state, Abbey teammate) has to be the priority. Do think Blovad is more than adequate as a breast medley backup to Baker and Marina, so Bears don't need another breaststroker until 2017.
Do think the Bears will target an international in 2018, just think it will be Taylor Ruck over Arina. Event excellence and breadth aside, Ruck's a near perfect international recruit. Native speaker, grew up in the states, Anerican team experience from high school, lots of SCY racing, probably knows Noemie, Amy, Keaton, Baker, and Missy.
Do think the Bears will target an international in 2018, just think it will be Taylor Ruck over Arina. Event excellence and breadth aside, Ruck's a near perfect international recruit. Native speaker, grew up in the states, Anerican team experience from high school, lots of SCY racing, probably knows Noemie, Amy, Keaton, Baker, and Missy.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Ha methinks every coach that knows a thing or two will be knocking hard on Taylor Ruck's parents' door when her time approaches, especially if Taylor continues to show in the intervening years the sort of amazing progress that she's been wowing the swimming world with as of late (to the extent that TR has even been hailed by the media as "the next Missy"...for Canada, that is lol) [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
BearDevil;842527427 said:
If the Bears can add two of Drabot, Small, Mann, or Adams to Abbey and KB, there won't be any room for other high end recruits (Liu, Cox, AS, Jacobsen,Voss) no matter how valuable and coveted they are.
There will be some self selection going on and some calculated risks in who to bring in when. Acker, Farida, and Marina didn't visit early. All became national champions. Converesely Leah Smith, Linnea Mack, Meaghan Raab, Jenna Bauer, and Ella Eastin did visit the first weekend and none ended up at Cal.
All parties involved have thrived. Bears don't get every recruit they want, some recruits have zero interest in Cal, and Teri doesn't recruit everyone who could help the Bears. It's an imperfect system, but perfection isn't the goal. Putting the best possible team together given the constraints is the goal, even though it's messy.
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]So we'd expect the priority/top recruits to show up for the first recruiting weekend, i.e. the Grambling game, with all the stops pulled out by everyone involved to help seal the deal? :cheer Wonder if Abbey will be here for this... Then reckon it's off to the backup plan should one or more of the key "wants" from that trip subsequently verbal to another college, involving a 2nd (lower profile) campus recruiting trip for the Plan B & local candidates?
Just trying to wrap my head round the whole deal which I know next to nothing about, that's all haha. Looking around, it seems some schools have up to 4 recruiting weekends (though the following example may encompass both the men's and the women's):
BD, from last year's tweets from Katie Ledecky, Ella & co., it appears that Stanfurd holds theirs in early-mid Oct, perhaps as they are on a quarter-system calendar? With very quick verbal commits soon after, as far as I recall...
If Claire isn't anywhere to be spotted on campus in a fortnight's time, it'll be confirmation I guess that Adams really has her mind set on the 3 schools she had talked about (sorry tedbear :bawl, whether cos CA had received a more attractive offer and/or the opportunity to be the starring role elsewhere, or else was never approached by Teri due to the limited slots available here or Coach McKeever's confidence in recruiting other candidates who were deemed to be of higher priority to the programme's particular needs... At least that's the only way I can rationalise (to myself hehe) Bears not even receiving a courtesy look-see from one of the top 2016 recruits who would have been a big asset and appeared to be a good fit on the surface :p [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
If Claire isn't anywhere to be spotted on campus in a fortnight's time, it'll be confirmation I guess that Adams really has her mind set on the 3 schools she had talked about (sorry tedbear :bawl, whether cos CA had received a more attractive offer and/or the opportunity to be the starring role elsewhere, or else was never approached by Teri due to the limited slots available here or Coach McKeever's confidence in recruiting other candidates who were deemed to be of higher priority to the programme's particular needs... At least that's the only way I can rationalise (to myself hehe) Bears not even receiving a courtesy look-see from one of the top 2016 recruits who would have been a big asset and appeared to be a good fit on the surface :p [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
Yeah, if Claire doesn't make it out for a visit to Cal for either the big recruiting weekend or another weekend, I would love to hear the inside story of how things really went down. I'm still not giving up hope yet, though. Can you imagine a backstroke group of Amy, Kathleen, and Claire for the next three years together!
They have to get the crops in, so school starts late on the farm. Their recruiting weekend is basically an admit weekend since most have already verballed earlier. Blovad and Byrnes have already verballed to their dream schools. Kinda surprised Emily Eastin hasn't verballed yet.
Could be that Adams wants to blaze her own path and be on her own because she'd be a great fit at Cal or Georgia (where she already has ties),
Small and Georgia also looks a little strange. Adams and Small are the only projected scorers in both backs thus far and 2017 looks weaker for back recruits. Georgia will have lost their entire 2015 800 Relay after this season and both Adams and Small could both contribute there too. Also lose two 400 IMers (Flickinger and Zhu) after this season. With lots of scholly $s and clear needs, weird that Georgia wouldn't be all over Adams and Small. Appears that both passed on Georgia, not the other way around. Georgia will still be strong, but if they miss two consecutive classes, A&M, 'SC, Texas, and UVa could pass them while Bears and LSJU pull away from everyone else.
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@ BearDevil:
Hey may sound a wee bit like a broken record lol, but once again really appreciate your balanced assessment & insightful take of the recruiting scene :beer:
Obviously most of us over here tend to see the world thru [COLOR="#000066"]blue[/COLOR]-and-[COLOR="#FFD700"]gold[/COLOR] tinted glasses haha, hence the understandably constant parade of anguish/disbelief :skep: & drama/hissy fits :headbang over the cream of the crop not always automatically choosing to be a :bear:... :p
But to put things in perspective, there are perfectly legit reasons why a recruit may find themselves a better fit with other equally great swim & academic programmes, Cal isn't a "one-size-fits-all" type of institution after all. If Claire's really not meant to be, let us all wish the rising star much success & fun at her dream school, for she's going to be a massive asset to whoever will be lucky to have her!
Reckon it's always tempting to speculate and second guess Teri even if the data available to those of us invested in the community here are very limited, and I'm pretty certain we'll continue to cheer & whinge at the same time over every teeny recruiting decision by TPTB...hehe
But in the end I think it'll all work out pretty well given the constraints of the recruiting budget/slots & available pool of candidates - personally would feel we'd be in a very solid spot if Katie Drabot & Meghan Small were to both make an appearance @ the big recruiting weekend, for starters...
:gobears:
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Meanwhile, here's Team USA Juniors prepping for Worlds, scheduled to commence @ Singapore this coming Tuesday: [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#808080"][U]The Mikes[/U]: Michael Andrew, Michael Taylor, Michael Thomas (2015 baby :bear:) & Michael Jensen[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#0099ff"][SIZE=5]Blog: 2015 FINA World Junior Championships[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#696969"] Claire Adams (Carmel Swim Club), Team Captain Hannah Kukurugya (Crown Point Swim Club), Team Captain Lauren Case (Chattahoochee Gold) Sierra Schmidt (North Baltimore Aquatic Club)
Maxime Rooney (Pleasanton Seahawks), Team Captain Grant Shoults (Mission Viejo Nadadores), Team Captain Reece Whitley (Penn Charter Aquatic Club) Sean Grieshop (Nitro Swimming) Austin Katz (Sarasota YMCA Sharks) [/COLOR] [U]Team Captains[/U]: [COLOR="#808080"] Claire Adams, Grant Shoults, Hannah Kukurugya & Maxime Rooney[/COLOR] http://usaswimming.org/ViewNewsArticle.aspx?TabId=0&itemid=9094&mid=14491
Bears won easily last year, lost Missy plus four other scorers, but still have 390 returning points. Without calculating in relay points, McL, Baker, and Amy conservatively can each generate 20 individual points apiece as froskies. That should be another title.
With Abbey already on board, Bears need one of Drabot, Small, Mann, or Adams to be well positioned in 2017. And that will be after losing Bootsma and Pelton. Can kinda get why SEC schools in particular hate Cal. Georgia obviously has talent, but they win more by depth of scorers rather than by reloading with multiple stars every season. With Ledecky and Stanzi also moving to the PAC, and ASU potentially getting better quickly, don't think the SEC is going to start loving West Coast swimming anytime soon.
Teri's obviously in a good position, but diminishing returns are coming into play. Can't enter multiple NCAA relays, so there's no benefit in going potentially 8 deep on every relay. Won't come into play this class, but Teri probably tries to add an elite diver every other year starting in 2017.
Looks like Small and Harnish are really well coached. Swam at Pan Ams, Juniors, and Nationals. Both qualified for Junior Worlds, but it's difficult to swim that many high end meets in the same season. Drabot wasn't eligible for Junior Worlds, but she crushed her taper meet at Nationals. Not entirely fair, but will be interesting to compare Drabot's, Small's, and Harnish's swims to their peers at Junior Worlds.
------- [COLOR="#696969"] Tuesday, August 25thSunday, August 30th, 2015 OCBC Aquatic Centre, Singapore Sports Hub [U]Prelims[/U]: 10 AM local time ([U]10 PM[/U] ET / [U]7 PM[/U] PTthe evening before) [U]Finals[/U]: 6 PM local time ([U]6 AM[/U] ET / [U]3 AM[/U] PT) [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman] Taylor Ruck busted out an eye-popping 1:56.71 anchor split to take CAN to the 2nd spot in the [U]4x200m free[/U]! Faster than even Katie McL's swift 1:56.92 & Leah Smith's speedy 1:56.86 legs in the winning American relay @ 2015 Worlds, not to mention trumping Cierra/Chenault/Vreeland's prelims splits in Kazan by more than a 1 sec margin! Oh, did I forget to note that Taylor's time is 2 seconds faster than any of Canada's senior relay team had split at Worlds, and that their Junior team here actually swam faster than their Senior counterparts in Russia? :eek: :rolleyes:
Hannah Cox's really strong 1:58.00 anchor was the 2nd fastest flying split in this race (also faster than 3 legs of our prelims relay team @ Worlds), but not quite enough for Team USA to get on the podium, even though their 7:57.84 broke the old Junior World Record by a second and a half. 2016 recruitLauren Case led off with a solid 1:59.67, but the 2 middle legs, which comprised 2018 prospectMelissa Pish (2:00.12) and 2016 Trojan verbalTatum Wade (2:00.05), couldn't quite break 2 minutes.
AUS snagged the gold thanks largely to Tamsin Cook's brilliant 1:58.16 meet record leadoff, incidentally also a PB for her by 2 sec! RUS ended up with bronze, Arina Openysheva leading things off with a nice 1:58.90.
All of these recruiting prospects have been discussed here previously, with [U]Taylor[/U] (2018) & [U]Hannah Cox[/U] (2016) looking particularly promising based on their performances thus far in the competition.
After the [U]100 back[/U] semis, Taylor's seeded 2nd (1:00.61) for finals, with 2016 prospectClaire Adams just behind her @ 1:00.64. 2018 recruitGrace Ariola squeaks into finals with her 1:01.42. Top seed from AUS, Minna Atherton, easily leads the field with her 59.86, having been the only sub-minute swimmer in the 2 rounds thus far (59.82 in prelims which is a meet record).
Viktoria Zeynep Gunes (representing Turkey, but actually hails from the Ukraine, and I think may have left the country after the 2014 Crimean crisis) will be the top seed in tomorrow's [U]50 breast[/U] finals, only swimmer to break 31 seconds (30.55). Nikol Popov is seeded 4th (31.72), with 2016 'Zona commitKennedy Lohman sitting in the 5th spot (31.87). Needless to say, both [U]Viktoria[/U] & [U]Nikol[/U] (2017) would be incredible assets for our breast & medley scoring chances (not to mention freeing up Kathleen) if we can recruit them down the road...
2017 recruitBrooke Forde (4th in 4:43.20) & 2016 Gators commitSavanna Faulconer (7th in 4:47.82) were shut out of the podium in the [U]400 IM[/U] finals. A pair of British lasses, Rosie Rudin (4:39.01) & Georgia Coates (4:39.94), broke Ella Eastin's 4:40.02 meet record to claim a 1-2 finish.
Incidentally, on the men's side, 2016 LSJU commitGrant Shoults won the [U]400 free[/U] in 3:48.91, a PB by 4 sec! 2016 Gators verbalMaxime Rooney's 48.44 anchor in the [U]4x100 free[/U], 2nd fastest overall, propelled USA from 4th to silver, whilst AUS took the lead in the 2nd leg and never relinquished it thanks to Kyle Chalmers' 48.41 split.
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[COLOR="#cc0000"]* Day 3 UPDATE *[/COLOR]
At the halfway point (post Day 3), the outstanding individuals on the female side have been:
2) Taylor Ruck (CAN) on the free & back: [CENTER][COLOR="#808080"][U]Taylor Ruck[/U], Mary-Sophie Harvey, Rebecca Smith & Penny Oleksiak (CAN)[/COLOR][/CENTER]
3) Minna Atherton (AUS) on the backs: [INDENT][COLOR="#808080"]Claire Adams, [U]Minna Atherton[/U] (AUS) & Bobbi Gichard (NZL)[/COLOR] [/INDENT]
Taylor & Minna share the same birth year (2000), so guess that'd make them potential 2018 recruits (Taylor being the more likely prospect for NCAA consideration). [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
USA Swimming Stats: So far there have been 12 swims from #FINAWorldJrSG make it into the 2015 [U]top 25[/U] world rankings. A look at those:
[COLOR="#006699"][SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman] American women have in general looked flat IMHO, perhaps partly due to the challenge of having to taper multiple times in a short span, i.e. Pam Ams->Jr Nat->Sr Nat->[U]Jr Worlds[/U].
Claire A & Hannah K have done alright considering, and Claire did claim silver in the [U]100 back[/U] in spite of having been off her recent PBs, with Hannah snagging bronze in the [U]200 fly[/U]. [CENTER][COLOR="#808080"]Hannah Kukurugya[/COLOR][/CENTER]
Cassidy B, Nikol P, Stanzi M & a bunch of their teammates have underperformed somewhat, at least relative to some of their international counterparts who in contrast have managed to save their best for the big occasion...
Sierra Schimdt appears to have been just about the only one who has been consistently fast up to this point.
Hannah Cox too, from the limited pool action that she has been involved in up to this stage...
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[COLOR="#006400"]* Day 6 UPDATE *[/COLOR]
Viktoria Gunes has just destroyed the field with a massive 2:19.64 in the [U]200 breast[/U]!! :acclaim:
To put that time into some context, only 3 women have ever been faster and have dipped under the 2:20 mark in history - world record holder Rikke Pedersen (DEN) 2:19.11 WR, Yulia Efimova (RUS) 2:19.41, and Rebecca Soni (USA, now retired) 2:19.59 which was the gold & WR mark @ London 2012!
Now becomes the top time in the world for 2015, trumping Kanako Watanabe (JPN)'s 2:21.15 Worlds gold @ Kazan and her 2:20.90 @ 2015 Japanese Nationals. Incidentally, a staggering winning margin of nearly 5 seconds over 2-3 finishers from Russia in today's finals, Mariia Astashkina's 2:24.57 and Sofia Andreeva's 2:24.88!
Other results of note: 2016 recruitHannah Cox claimed the bronze in the [U]200 free[/U] with her 1:59.28, behind 2018 recruitTaylor Ruck (1:57.87 PB & meet record) & Arina Openysheva (1:58.28).
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2015 baby bearMike Thomas earned a bronze in the [U]200 fly[/U]. [/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]
Still think new PAC-12 rules on guaranteed no cut four year scholarships will slow recruitment of internationals and elite recruits. Not that she has to worry about it since she's likely on a full ride by now, but Farida was born in Indy and therefore is eligible for financial aid. Ruck won't have to worry about less than a full ride and either Cierra's or Noemie's rides are being budgeting toward her.
Good news/bad news on LSJU recruiting. Kinda hard to gauge scholly $s on the farm because their financial aid packages are so deep, but they may have a scholly problem this year. One major senior (Haase), three middle tier (Anderson, Brown, and diver Clay), and a few minor $s spread around. Ledecky gets a full ride, Byrnes is mid-tier, so they may have problems landing two of Drabot, Small, or someone else at that level. Alyssa Marsh is on the radar, but she may get bumped by legacies Emily Eastin and Brooke Stenstrom (parents met on the farm-mom swam and dad was a future NFL QB).
Kinda looks like they're slow playing Eastin and Stenstrom, so they probably are waiting on at least two major recruits and may not have the cash for all of them. Doubt that Byrnes and Keaton are the number two priorities behind Ledecky and Abbey,
Tough to project out before the current recruiting class is signed and enrolled, but NY's Maggie Arosty might bear watching. Popov is still the key 2017 breast target, but Arosty may also be able to contribute in breast and IMs. Additionally Keaton and Maija respectively have upside in the 100 and 200.
HK would also work, but Bears will still have McL, Noemie, and Mau. Bayer (LSJU lean) and Orange County's Eva Merrell should be the top 2018 fly targets.
Meghan Small - [COLOR="#696969"]27 August[/COLOR]