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[COLOR="#006699"]
Tomorrow's dual v. the Furdettes @ Spieker promises to be quite an exciting affair to say the least! Have heard that some of our 2017 baby Bears will be there to cheer on their future teammates :cheer
Expecting both teams to be in the midst of heavy training as the eye's sensibly on the big picture & prize in March, despite the obvious intense swim & school rivalry here, so not anticipating any incredible times (well other than
Katie Ledecky breaking records left & right as is her MO!).
Unlike the [U]Trojans v. Bruins[/U] dual earlier today where school pride was apparently on the line and so racing suits made a rare dual meet appearance:

Anyhoo was thinking it might be a fun exercise to try to predict a possible outcome here ... then sit back to see how massively far the real world results will deviate from this wild guesstimate
Don't have much familiarity with the furdette squad outside of their big names TBH, esp with regards to their relative in-season performances - will surely have a host of assumptions completely off-kilter here (such as over-committing some of the top names to excessive swims, leaving out some swimmers, etc), so please don't laugh or scoff too loudly at the ad hoc fantasy scoring below lol
Will be really interesting to see how both coaching staff will adjust & tweak their lineups in order to play up to their respective strengths whilst minimising weaknesses, in a concerted chess game of trying to outsmart, counter and respond to each other's deep strategies & tactics...
The furdette juggernaut is inarguably THE team to beat in the NCAA this season, and indeed favoured by many to be the de-facto National Champions by an overwhelming margin over the rest of the competition. Heck they may be built better than us for dual meet scoring currently, esp after their last couple of top recruiting classes (and a number of setbacks at our end).
My realistic expectations for this dual would probably be a loss of hopefully
less than 30 points (note that no swims can be exhibitioned on Pac-12 broadcasts apparently). Indeed would personally regard a final scoreline with a [U]23-points deficit[/U] or lower as a moral victory for our Golden Bears - that's actually the closest anyone has come to LSJU this season in a dual setting (after some generous exhibitioning on Greg Meehan's part in the case of UCLA).
That's not to say that a blue & gold victory is out of the question, esp in Bear territory! If we can take the top spot in more individual events than our opponent, and esp if we can claim both relays... keep in mind that the dual scoring format is skewed massively towards winners...
Here's
Part 1 of my virtual scoring, warts & all and with understandably a healthy dose of :bear: bias (hope I got the basic math right at least :p):
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[SIZE=3]
[U]200 Medley Relay[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#000080"]1. Amy/Abbey/Noemie/Farida - 11
[COLOR="#B22222"]2. Howe/Poppe/Hu/Manuel - 4[/COLOR]
3. Thleen/Marina/Maddie/Val - 2
[COLOR="#B22222"]4. Voss/Williams/Engel/Neal - 0[/COLOR][/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 4 - Cal 13
Cumulative score: Furd 4 - Cal 13
[COLOR="#006699"]Our "secret weapon" here is Abbey's significantly faster breast split than Heidi's. Due to my obvious bias, I'm awarding the 3rd spot to Cal, though I'd like to think there's a rational basis for that guesstimate lol (Stanford's breast weakness > ours, not to mention our 2nd sprint backstroker >> theirs, etc).
LSJU could use CollegeSwimming's #1 recruit Drabot instead of Neal for their B relay anchor if they want Lia to be fresh for the 200 free, in which case Drabot wouldn't swim the next event (1000 free) but instead take on the 200 free to attempt another furdette sweep there.[/COLOR]
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[SIZE=3]
[U]1000 Free[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#B22222"]1. Ledecky - 9
2. Byrnes - 4
3. Drabot - 3
[COLOR="#000080"]4. Chenoa - 2[/COLOR]
5. Stevens - 1
6. Stafford/Boyd - 0
[COLOR="#000080"]7. Anina/Celina - 0[/COLOR][/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 17 - Cal 2
Cumulative score: Furd 21 - Cal 15
[COLOR="#006699"]Furdettes make their big move here with a potential sweep and Ledecky casually destroying the pool record :bawl: Bears get pwned here even with Chenoa since distance's a sadly all-too-familiar area of extreme vulnerability for our women (esp in the aftermath of Cierra's untimely departure). Katie McL could conceivably be put into play here to limit the damage somewhat, but IMHO it isn't worth killing Leo in an exhausting off-event where LSJU is plainly dominant, just for the chance of gaining a mere 1 to 2 points.[/COLOR]
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[SIZE=3]
[U]200 Free[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#B22222"]1. Ledecky - 9
2. Manuel - 4
3. Neal - 3
[COLOR="#000080"]4. Abbey - 2
5. Katie - 1
6. KV/Celina/Val/Jenna - 0[/COLOR]
7. Stafford - 0[/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 16 - Cal 3
Cumulative score: Furd 37 - Cal 18
[COLOR="#006699"]Another race where the Card holds a clear advantage on paper and looking quickly for a successive sweep. Just like that, Nerd Nation (potentially) jumps to a sizable 2x lead - to the anguished groans & bemused moans of the panicked Spieker faithful! Those of Teri's charges who are capable of scoring here - Amy, Thleen & Keaton - will be much needed in the next event (100 back), so they may not be around to help stem the bleeding in this one :cry:
One ray of hope here is that Abbey & Katie are certainly more than able to rise to the challenge and deliver more than I'm presently giving them credit for above. Have also been somewhat generous to the scoring for the trees in assuming Meehan will be (relatively) ballsy here and swim Ledecky straight after her 1000 free (mind you, KL's quite capable of that as her opponents have all come to fear!). As noted above, Drabot could also be called upon if she skips the prior 1000 free, maybe replacing Ledecky in the 200.[/COLOR]
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[SIZE=3]
[U]100 Back[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#000080"]1. Amy - 9
[COLOR="#B22222"]2. Howe - 4[/COLOR]
3. Thleen - 3
[COLOR="#B22222"]4. Hu - 2[/COLOR]
5. Keaton - 1
[COLOR="#B22222"]6. Voss/Engel - 0[/COLOR]
7. Courtney/Aislinn - 0[/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 6 - Cal 13
Cumulative score: Furd 44 - Cal 30
[COLOR="#006699"]Backstroke U claws back against an opponent who boasts a couple of top class backstrokers of their own (Howe + Hu's phenomenal underwaters), giving the partisan crowd a bit of renewed hope. Kathleen hasn't been as fast as Amy at the shorter distance in-season - it's even possible that Teri will save Thleen Bean for later events, esp if her Chrohn's is flaring up on the day.[/COLOR]
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[SIZE=3]
[U]100 Breast[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#000080"]1. Marina - 9
[COLOR="#B22222"]2. Poppe - 4[/COLOR]
3. Abbey - 3
[COLOR="#B22222"]4. Williams - 2
5. Szekely - 1[/COLOR]
6. Maija - 0[/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 7 - Cal 12
Cumulative score: Furd 51 - Cal 42
[COLOR="#006699"]To the surprise of more than a few, Bears continue to chip away at the furdette lead in an event where they are traditionally not known to shine. Abbey in fact has the ability to beat a Poppe who is presently a mere shadow of her freshie year promise ... but no guarantee that Weitzeil will be called upon to compete here.[/COLOR]
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[SIZE=3]
[U]200 Fly[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#B22222"]1. Eastin - 9[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#000080"]2. Noemie - 4
3. Katie - 3
[COLOR="#B22222"]4. Hu - 2[/COLOR]
5. Celina - 1
[COLOR="#B22222"]6. Engel - 0[/COLOR]
7. Jaz - 0[/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 11 - Cal 8
Cumulative score: Furd 62 - Cal 50
[COLOR="#006699"]Katie hasn't (yet) returned to her pre-neck injury form that could have challenged Ella's nation-leading prowess in this race, but we can keep pace overall thanks to Noemie's & Celina's very solid support, yay.[/COLOR]
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[SIZE=3]
[U]50 Free[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#000080"]1. Abbey - 9
[COLOR="#B22222"]2. Manuel - 4[/COLOR]
3. Farida - 3
[COLOR="#B22222"]4. Neal - 2[/COLOR]
5. Amy/Val - 1
[COLOR="#B22222"]6. Hu - 0[/COLOR]
7. Maddie/KV - 0[/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 6 - Cal 13
Cumulative score: Furd 68 - Cal 63
[COLOR="#006699"]The sprint free talent level's insane with the 2 Bay Area programmes, and the battle could go either way for America's best sprinter duo depending on who makes the fewest technical missteps on the day, but sentimentality here will obviously favour Abbey hehe (though her best performances have often been reserved for the relays over her individuals). Will be quite a spectacle with all the top end depth on display on deck, but ultimately I'm rooting for the :bear: to prevail

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[SIZE=3]
[U]1 mtr Diving[/U][/SIZE]
[COLOR="#B22222"]1. Cook - 9
2. Farnsworth - 4
[COLOR="#000080"]3. Hayden - 3
4. Phoebe - 2
5. Mia - 1
6. Rachel - 0[/COLOR]
7. S. Gallagher - 0[/COLOR]
[U]Event score[/U]: Furd 13 - Cal 6
Cumulative score: Furd 81 - Cal 69
[COLOR="#006699"]Furds swagger into Legends with a Rio Olympian + a 43-point 2016 NCAA scorer on their diving squad, but I'm predicting/hoping that Bears won't be completely outclassed as in the past. Doesn't hurt that NCAA champion Leydon-Mahoney's specialty is the platform, which won't be contested in this dual. [/COLOR]
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