2018 Women's NCAA Championships (Swimming & Diving)

32,872 Views | 142 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by tedbear
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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By popular request, thought I'd kick off this topic a wee bit earlier than usual ">

Here's some basic info on the meet. Will try to update as additional details flow in closer to the event:


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Wednesday, March 14 - Saturday, March 17
McCorkle Aquatic Pavilion, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
Prelims: 10 AM / Finals: 6 PM (Eastern Time) ... 9 AM / 5 PM on Friday

Schedule: http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/w-swim/spec-rel/ncaa-championships-2018.html#schedule

Live Results: https://www.sidearmstats.com/ncaa/swimming/index.htm

"ESPNU will broadcast live the championship finals session Friday starting at 5 p.m. Eastern time. The finals session on Saturday will be streamed live by ESPN3 starting at 6 p.m. Eastern time. Tape delayed coverage of the women's championships will be broadcast on ESPNU March 25 at 4 p.m. Eastern time.

All sessions not broadcast by either ESPNU or ESPN3 will be streamed live on the NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships microsite at www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com."


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A blowout victory by the "Furdette Juggernaut" is all but guaranteed when one does the arithmetic (heck even Teri has alluded to such) - LSJU just has too much going in their favour presently, with their parade of superstars + top end depth across such a plethora of events, after successive cycles of monopolising more than double the number of Top 10 recruits in the nation compared to their closest competitors.

-> the Card qualifying a staggering 18 swimmers + 1 diver for these NCAAs (will likely have to drop 1 of their swimmers in order to meet the max quota of 18), whilst Cal will bring 10 swimmers + 1 relay-only + 1 diver to the big dance next week.

However there is much to look forward to as we cheer our massive underdogs on to yet another undoubtedly action-packed & drama-filled National Championship, with our compact quality-over-quantity squad looking to make some significant waves to ensure that several individual & relay titles will remain Bear Territory!

Was really proud of the team camaraderie & indomitable #thebearwillnotquitthebearwillnotdie school spirit displayed by our plucky Bears @ 2018 Pac-12s, where school records & lifetime bests fell across the board, with every single member of the team contributing to the scoring by making finals of conference, a number of froskis developing earlier than expected, culminating in Cal taking 4 of the 5 relays away from the overwhelming Furd favourites: 2018 Pac-12 Swimming & Diving Champs (Women's)

Well reckon I'll just leave the animated & thought-provoking discussions on how we might expect individual events & relay lineups to shape up, to all of your invaluable input in subsequent posts - Go Bears!


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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Conversations on the 2017-2018 season leading up to NCAAs: 2017-2018 Season: Women's Swimming

Also some BI topics for the past few WS&D NCAAs, should anyone wish to fondly reminisce about all the roller-coaster rides we took (in spirit) alongside our Bears, from exuberantly celebrating team titles to being collectively gutted (DQs esp!)... lol




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2017 Women's NCAA Championships (Swimming & Diving)



  • 2017
1. Stanford 526.5 points
2. California 366
3. Texas A&M 292.5
4. Georgia 252.5
5. Texas 252

https://instagr.am/p/BgPKrpYAJSo

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2016 Women's NCAA Championships (Swimming & Diving)



  • 2016
1. Georgia 414
2. Stanford 395
3. California 358
4. Texas A&M 309
5. Virginia 264


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2015 Women's NCAA Championships (Swimming)



  • 2015
1. California 513
2. Georgia 452
3. Stanford 363
4. Texas A&M 231
5. Virginia 229


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(missing 2017 as the graphic was originally posted back in 2016)

UPDATE =>

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  • 2014
1. Georgia 528
2. Stanford 402.5
3. California 386
4. Texas A&M 336
5. Southern Cal 252

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  • 2013
1. Georgia 477
2. California 393
3. Tennessee 325.5
4. Texas A&M 323.5
5. Arizona 311

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  • 2012
1. California 412.5
2. Georgia 366
3. Southern Cali 325.5
4. Stanford 318
5. Arizona 299

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  • 2011
1. California 424
2. Georgia 394.5
3. Southern Cali 351
4. Stanford 272
5. Arizona 266

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  • 2010
1. Florida 382
2. Stanford 379.5
3. California 363
4. Arizona 359.5
5. Georgia 342.5

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  • 2009
1. California 411.5
2. Georgia 400.5
3. Arizona 389
4. Stanford 312.5
5. Texas 307
6. Auburn 281.5
7. Florida 239.5

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9 straight Top 3 NCAA finishes (2009 - 2017), 4 of them as National Champions - will our women make history by extending their streak to 10 this season?!

Tune in next week to find out...


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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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THE OFFICIAL 2018 SWIMSWAM WOMEN'S NCAA PREDICTIONS INDEX


2017-2018 WOMEN'S NCAA POWER RANKINGS: FINAL EDITION


2018 WOMEN'S NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS: SCORING CHEAT SHEETS

  • Texas A&M makes a big move on day 4 of the meet. That big sharp jump comes in the 200 breaststroke, where the A&M are seeded to score 63 points the single-highest event total of any team in the meet. The breaststroke also happens to be Cal's weakest event they're not seeded to score any points in either distance.

  • The 2nd-highest event total is Stanford, who is seeded for 57 in the 400 IM (they have the last two American Record holders, Katie Ledecky and Ella Eastin, entered). That event should be the one where they really separate from Cal and start making their inevitable dash to the finish.

  • If Michigan is going to battle for a top 3 position with Cal and A&M, the freestyles are going to have to be their big moves. They are seeded to score 107.5 of their 180 individual points in freestyle disciplines, and specifically in the 4 longest events. That includes 45.5 seeded points in the 200 free. They should get close to A&M after that 200 free, though they too will have trouble holding on to the Aggies' breaststroke surge later in the meet.

  • On paper, there's clear separation between the top 4 and the rest of the top 10. Things get especially tight in the bottom-half on the final dday of competition, which is Tennessee's weakest day. Indiana has a big day on day 3, and Texas' diving will go a long way toward lifting them toward the top of that pile.


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bearz012
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Katie McLaughlin has taken over for the now-graduated Farida Osman on Cal's 200 free relay.

2018 W. NCAA PICKS: CAL FAVORED IN 200 FREE RELAY

Cal was all over this relay last year, as the team of Abbey Weitzeil, Amy Bilquist, Maddie Murphy, and Farida Osman combined for an NCAA and U.S. Open record of 1:25.59 the American record wasn't set with that swim, as Osman is Egyptian. This year, at Pac-12s, Cal set a new American record of 1:25.87 with Katie McLaughlin swapped in for the now-graduated Osman. Osman had a monster 20.91 split last year, and losing that leg will push Cal back to the field a bit, but this is still the best chance that anybody has at picking off Stanford in a relay.

At Pac-12s, Cal blitzed the rest of the competition with their 1:25.87 2nd place Stanford was nearly a full second back at 1:26.81. Simone Manuel was 21.22 on the 2nd leg, followed by Lauren Pitzer (21.76) and Ally Howe (21.55). Janet Hu was only 22.28 leading off her best is a 21.83 from 2013, and while Stanford doesn't seem to have enough to catch Cal, a quicker leadoff from Hu could go a long way. Based on Pac-12 results, Manuel will probably be under 21 again next week, even after dealing with injury all year, which could pull them closer to Cal. It's the Bears' race to lose, though, and any wild split produced by Manuel will likely be matched, or almost matched, by Weitzeil.

TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | TEAM | SEED TIME
1 | Cal | 1:25.87
2 | Stanford | 1:26.81
3 | Louisville | 1:26.92
4 | UVA | 1:26.67
5 | Ohio State | 1:27.08
6 | Tennessee | 1:27.26
7 | Michigan | 1:28.00
8 | Texas A&M | 1:28.37
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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  • USA Swimming Stats

The top 5.1% of all NCAA D-1 women swimmers have been invited to swim at the national championships this year. A very select group for sure.



4.8 - average number of swimmers per team at this years women's D-I NCAA championships.



2013 & 2014 Georgia - Was the last school to repeat as Women's NCAA D-I Champs. Stanford with 10 unique swimmers seed in the top 8 in individual events look to be the next school to achieve this mark.










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swimmer19
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Just in via SwimSwam:

2 SCRATCHES MEAN 2 NEW INVITES FOR 2018 NCAA WOMEN'S D1 CHAMPIONSHIPS

Long story short, Stanford freshman Katie Glavinovich will be left off the roster in order to fill Kassidy Cook in the divers' spots.

That moves Sophie Krivokapic-Zhou to second alternate, and Chenoa Devine to 5th.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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swimmer19 said:

Long story short, Stanford freshman Katie Glavinovich will be left off the roster in order to fill Kassidy Cook in the divers' spots.

That moves Sophie Krivokapic-Zhou to second alternate, and Chenoa Devine to 5th.

Cheers for that update. Really psyched for Sophie if she happens to get in courtesy of an additional potential couple of scratches down the road, though may be a moot point unless she had travelled with the squad who arrived in Columbus last night!

Feel bad for sapling Katie G. being denied her opportunity even tho she had qualified. Seemed a nice person who had got on well with our women's team during her recruiting trip to Cal, for certain would have competed @ NCAAs this week if she had signed with our Bears instead of LSJU. Competition for an NCAA spot will be even more intense next season down on the Farm with their massive super-freshman incoming class...

Speaking of teams attacking NCAAs with a full roster (18 incl. divers who count as 1/2), we shouldn't sleep on the Aggies who are hoping to upset Cal for that runner-up spot. Texas A&M will surely be dangerous...watch out for their medleys & breast depth, along with divers who can score.

Anyway, here are some posts from Ohio today, touching upon a very important tradition lol (can't wait to hear BD's or anyone else's profund analysis of the nail colours & patterns on display here haha):

P.S. Val's presence confirmed here...yay!


https://instagr.am/p/BgOyul0jJUu







VIDEO CLIPS =>

https://scontent-lga3-1.cdninstagram.com/vp/9ad4e368b0c545b10e55acbb8215721b/5AA93089/t50.12441-16/28840759_166802587374109_1215156078520477099_n.mp4

https://scontent-lga3-1.cdninstagram.com/vp/734838ba2735ec92fce6f750bbadb62b/5AA9445E/t50.12441-16/28859466_224056061484376_7580664288092268329_n.mp4

https://scontent-lga3-1.cdninstagram.com/vp/92a513dbedc0ae831a3053cc8a73a865/5AA91DAE/t50.12441-16/28839948_1882341488724752_4064148557221089138_n.mp4

https://scontent-lga3-1.cdninstagram.com/vp/ccab92693546bb25e95026c0b8df3175/5AA921C0/t50.12441-16/28690531_2071383433134410_8493244289398572017_n.mp4




Note: most of the above images & videos are of a temporary nature, as these links will expire in a day or so...



UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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NO. 2 CAL HEADS TO NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS




20 SWIMS AMONG NCAA'S TOP 16

Cal enters this week's meet with 20 swims - 15 individuals and five relays - that rank among the top 16 in the country. Kathleen Baker and Amy Bilquist appear in three different events, while the Bears have the most swimmers in the 50 free top 16 with Abbey Weitzeil, Bilquist and Maddie Murphy.

50 free - Abbey Weitzeil (4th, 21.41), Amy Bilquist (8th, 21.74), Maddie Murphy (T14th, 21.96)
100 free - Abbey Weitzeil (2nd, 46.63)
200 free - Robin Neumann (8th, 1:43.38)
100 back - Kathleen Baker (3rd, 50.13), Amy Bilquist (11th, 51.28)
200 back - Kathleen Baker (1st, 1:48.27), Amy Bilquist (7th, 1:50.23)
100 fly - Noemie Thomas (5th, 50.77), Katie McLaughlin (10th, 51.17)
200 fly - Noemie Thomas (9th, 1:53.77)
200 IM - Kathleen Baker (2nd, 1:52.70), Sarah Darcel (9th, 1:54.50)
400 IM - Sarah Darcel (6th, 4:03.00)
200 free relay - Murphy, Bilquist, McLaughlin, Weitzeil (1st, 1:25.87)
400 free relay - Bilquist, McLaughlin, Baker, Weitzeil (1st, 3:09.04)
800 free relay - Neumann, Baker, McLaughlin, Bilquist (1st, 6:52.62)
200 medley relay - Baker, Weitzeil, Thomas, Bilquist (1st, 1:34.13)
400 medley relay - Baker, Harrison, Thomas, Weitzeil (2nd, 3:25.50)


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bearz012
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2018 W. NCAA PREVIEWS: COMERFORD TO CHALLENGE 1:40-BARRIER IN 200 FREE

Michigan should be in for a big points haul here if their swimmers can replicate their Big Ten performances. They have Haughey, last season's 6th place finisher Gabby Deloof, and sister Caitie Deloof all seeded in the top 8. Cal and Stanford each have a strong shot at getting 2 in the final. Manuel and Katie Drabot (who was 14th last season) will be racing for the Cardinal, while the Bears have Katie McLaughlin and standout freshman Robin Neumann. Though this is only her first season in yards, Neumann is a top-8 seed. McLaughlin, who won the B final last season, is seeded #22 coming into the meet, but it's worth noting she didn't swim this event at Pac-12s.

TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | TEAM | SEASON BEST | LIFETIME BEST
1 | Mallory Comerford | Louisville | 1:41.17 | 1:40.36
2 | Simone Manuel | Stanford | 1:40.78 | 1:40.37
3 | Siobhan Haughey | Michigan | 1:41.66 | 1:41.21
4 | Katie McLaughlin | Cal | 1:44.42 | 1:43.01
5 | Gabby Deloof | Michigan | 1:42.91 | 1:42.91
6 | Katie Drabot | Stanford | 1:43.92 | 1:43.78
7 | Robin Neumann | Cal | 1:43.38 | 1:43.38
8 | Claire Rasmus | Texas A&M | 1:43.62 | 1:43.62

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USA Swimming Stats:



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If you'd like to predict and pick which swimmers are mostly likely to get top 4 in each event, maybe try your hand at SwimSwam's Pick 'Em contest? https://swimswam.com/2018-womens-ncaa-championship-pick-em-contest-presented-by-a3/
bearz012
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The NCAA Championships will pit the American Record holder, Abbey Weitzeil, against the reigning NCAA champion and NCAA Record holder, Stanford's Simone Manuel, in the 50 free.

2018 W. NCAA PREVIEWS: AMERICAN RECORD HOLDER VS. NCAA RECORD HOLDER IN 50 FREE

The NCAA Championships will pit the American Record holder, Abbey Weitzeil, against the reigning NCAA champion and NCAA Record holder, Stanford's Simone Manuel, in the 50 free. One of the main questions concerning this race heading into the postseason was of Manuel's undisclosed injury. Despite battling injury for most of the season, however, Manuel's performances at the Pac-12 Championships didn't seem to be impacted at all. She put up a blistering 21.20 in this event at conference, missing her best time by just .03. With that, Manuel appears to be the favorite, but Weitzeil still has that American Record swim under her belt. She became the fastest swimmer ever in the event with a 21.12 in 2016, and has been looking good in-season.

Outside of Weitzeil, Manuel, and Li, the returning finalists this season are Cal's Maddie Murphy and UNC's Caroline Baldwin. As a freshman, Murphy placed 6th with a lifetime best 21.76. This season, she's exactly where she was last year in terms of seed time for the meet. She was able to shave a couple of tenths from Pac-12s to NCAAs last time around, so she's in a good position to earn All-American status again. Baldwin had a great summer and has done a good job of translating that success into the yards pool. She knocked 3 tenths off her best for a 21.48 at midseason, and though she wasn't as fast at ACCs, there's a good chance she's got a lot left in the tank for NCAAs.

There are several other women who could potentially make this final. Virginia's Caitlin Cooper comes to mind after her speedy 21.54 to win ACCs. Then there's Cal's Amy Bilquist, who's been on top of her sprint game with a lifetime best 21.74 at Pac-12s. Though she missed the SEC Championships for undisclosed health reasons, Texas A&M's Bryl Gastaldello has had a breakthrough this season. Her 21.69 from the 2017 Art Adamson Invite was her first best time in this race since 2015. She's already gotten back into the swing of things, competing at sectionals to prepare for NCAAs. Auburn's Aly Tetzloff (21.83), Texas' Rebecca Millard (21.91), and Alabama's Bailey Scott (21.96) have all been sub-22 and should be fighting for a finals spot as well.

TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | TEAM | SEASON BEST | PERSONAL BEST
1 | Simone Manuel | Stanford | 21.20 | 21.17
2 | Abbey Weitzeil | Cal | 21.41 | 21.12
3 | Erika Brown | Tennessee | 21.39 | 21.39
4 | Liz Li | Ohio State | 21.28 | 21.28
5 | Caroline Baldwin | UNC | 21.48 | 21.48
6 | Amy Bilquist | Cal | 21.74 | 21.74
7 | Caitlin Cooper | UVA | 21.54 | 21.54
8 | Maddie Murphy | Cal | 21.96 | 21.76

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USA Swimming Stats:

bearz012
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Some NCAA hype pics...

https://instagr.am/p/BgJyzpbHIkv
Val & Abbey

https://instagr.am/p/BgRxQK5Ap5S
Amy & Abbey

https://instagr.am/p/BgRwm8xD2QZ
Ali (back), Sarah, Robin
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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bearz012 said:


Some NCAA hype pics...

Great! Here are a couple more...Teri's quite a quick learner when it comes to instas, eh?! lol

https://instagr.am/p/BgMMbJODfiW

https://instagr.am/p/BgOg2rEjvOC


Back: Val
Middle: Kathleen, Sarah, Katie, Abbey, Amy
Front: Noemie, Keaton, Robin, Maddie, Ali
tedbear
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"Great! Here are a couple more...Teri's quite a quick learner when it comes to instas, eh?! lol"

Well, as long as she is not cutting Val and Amy's heads off ">. Hahaha!
MamaBear
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Anyone else bothered by the fact that Swim Swam lets a comment like this be posted on this link (pick em contest) about girls who are from 17-22 years old and our children? How about their dedication, skill, and mindset!?

STEVE SWIMS

You should choose based on the hottest girls and see if that works for you!
5-4Reply
8 hours ago

tedbear
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MamaBear said:

Anyone else bothered by the fact that Swim Swam lets a comment like this be posted on this link (pick em contest) about girls who are from 17-22 years old and our children? How about their dedication, skill, and mindset!?

STEVE SWIMS

You should choose based on the hottest girls and see if that works for you!
5-4Reply
8 hours ago


MamaBear, as many of us diehard Bear fans have quickly learned, the comments section at Swimswam can be complete trash. There are several posters who have an anti-Teri, anti-Missy, and anti-Cal agenda, and are often spewing outright lies to make the Bears look bad. Of course, the administrators, Stanfurd wonks, do absolutely nothing to police these lies. Now they are letting sexist comments live on the boards. My advice is to read Swimswim for the content, but avoid the comments section.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Sad but true. Those horrible comments are such a load of tosh, but I wouldn't be surprised if SwimSwam allows them to be published just cos controversy & inflammatory opinions do unfortunately tend to generate more clicks & views, i.e. "good for business & their advertisers"... ~grrrrrrr~
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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The Everything Guide to the Women's NCAA Division I Swimming Champs

Morning Splash by David Rieder.


Let's be honest: It's really tough to imagine a team other than Stanford taking home the women's NCAA Division I swimming team title this week. The Cardinal, with two Olympic gold medalists leading the way and an abundance of depth, return almost all the pieces (aside from Lia Neal) of last year's team that won the national title by 160 points.

Sure, Texas A&M looks tough, after finishing ahead of Stanford at the Art Adamson Invitational in November and winning its third straight SEC title, but the California Golden Bears, runners-up last year, failed to mount much of a threat to Stanford at the Pac-12 championships despite winning four of five relays.


Freestyle

Make no mistake: Simone Manuel should be considered the big favorite in both the 50 and 100 free.

But Manuel will have her challengers, particularly in the 50 free. Her season-best time is 21.20, just off her lifetime best of 21.17 and Abbey Weitzeil's American record of 21.12, but Liz Li is seeded just behind at 21.28. Erika Brown (21.39), Weitzeil (21.41) and Caroline Baldwin (21.48) are all within three tenths.

Manuel should have a slightly greater advantage in the 100 free, but you wouldn't put it past Weitzeil or Mallory Comerford to sneak an upset.


Backstroke

For obvious reasons, Cal's Kathleen Baker should be the favorite in both dorsal events. She is the Olympic silver medalist in the 100-meter event, a World Championship medalist in both the 100 and 200 back over the summer, and she won both events (in yards) at last year's championships.

It was less than 13 months ago that Stanford's Ally Howe took down Natalie Coughlin's 15-year-old American record in the 100 back, becoming only the second woman to break 50 seconds, and now, three others have joined her under that vaunted standard: Baker, Wisconsin's Beata Nelson and Howe's teammate Janet Hu.



For the 200 back, Baker will try to track down the American and NCAA records, both held by Elizabeth Pelton for the past five years at 1:47.84. Behind her, four other swimmers--Hu, Nelson, Asia Seidt and Lisa Bratton--have already swum under 1:50 this season.


Butterfly

Erika Brown, the Tennessee sophomore who didn't even swim individually at NCAAs last year, became just the second woman to break 50 in the 100 fly at the SEC championships. But at 49.85, she's seeded not too far ahead of Louise Hansson, the Swede representing USC, who's entered with a time of 50.17.

In case you've never watched Brown race, her underwaters are likely the best in the country, and she will legitimately spend more than half of her 100 fly below the surface. But Hansson and Liz Li, in her home pool, poise legitimate threats.

Eastin's Stanford teammate Katie Drabot is seeded third after adding the 200 fly this season, and don't forget about Cal's Katie McLaughlin, last year's runner-up, even though she only enters as the 21st seed in the event.


IM

Kathleen Baker is the defending NCAA champion in the 200 IM, and her race against American record-holder Ella Eastin and Texas A&M standout Sydney Pickrem should be fascinating if for no other reason than all three have different strengths. Baker typically uses her speed to take the race out hard early, Eastin has no real weak stroke and excellent underwaters, and Pickrem uses a world-class breaststroke to compensate for her butterfly.


Relays

Cal has the top seed in three relays, the 4x50 and 4x100 free relays plus the 4x50 medley relay, while Stanford leads the way in the 4x100 medley, and Michigan has the top spot in the 4x200 free.

Even with the loss of Farida Osman, the Golden Bears have a healthy stable of sprint depth with Abbey Weitzeil, Amy Bilquist and Maddie Murphy, plus the versatility of Katie McLaughlin and Kathleen Baker.

Stanford, on the other hand, is slightly thin in the sprints behind Simone Manuel, and it will be interesting to see which relay coach Greg Meehan decides to hold her out of.


Team Competition

According to projections compiled by Price Fishback, Stanford should pull away on the final day to win its second straight national title. The Cardinal's depth in events like the 1650 free (Katie Ledecky, Megan Byrnes, Leah Stevens) and 200 back (Janet Hu, Ally Howe, Allie Szekely, Erin Voss) will be too much for Cal or anyone else to keep up.



As shown in the graphic above, Cal is seeded to finish second, followed by Texas A&M and then Michigan, but a few swings here or there could change up that mix. But Michigan is seeded 94 points ahead of the No. 5 team, so it's unlikely that anyone else cracks that top four.

That finish order of Stanford, Cal, Texas A&M and then Michigan is just what Swimming World officially predicted in this month's magazine. But behind that, things could get a little crazy.


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Chaos Brewing: Tight Race for Top Ten at Women's NCAA Championships


Stanford should finish atop the field at this week's women's NCAA championships in Columbus, Ohio, and the Cardinal will likely be followed by Cal, Texas A&M and Michigan. And then, things get interesting.

According to pre-diving score projections, teams projected to finish fifth through ninth will all be within 43 points of each other, and several more are within striking distance of that pack. Check out the full chart.



So Tennessee, which fell to a shocking 22nd last year, has a legitimate shot at a top-five finish, and that's almost entirely thanks to Erika Brown. She's seeded first, third and fifth in her three individual events, and she will be the key to the Tennessee relays as well.

USC won't get as many relay points but should get an influx of individual points from Louise Hansson, as well as potential A-final contributions from Riley Scott, Maggie Aroesty and Maddie Wright.

Louisville, like Tennessee, is dependent on a single swimmer: Mallory Comerford. This year's team is the deepest the Cardinals have ever had and very strong in relays.

Virginia beat Louisville at the ACC championships, but the depth that won the Cavaliers the conference meet will not show as well given the NCAA championship format. The sprint relays should score big.

Texas, the last of the bunched-up teams within striking range of fifth place, should have room to move up given that flyers Remedy Rule and Lauren Case are both seeded outside the scoring in the 200 fly. Claire Adams having a big meet is the key for the Longhorns.

Behind them, it's tough to see Indiana gaining much from their swimming seeds, given that Lilly King and the medley relays are already very high seeds, but diving could be a big boost for the Hoosiers.

Look a little further down that list, and there's the University of Georgia seeded to finish 15th--yes, the same Bulldogs who have finished in the top two 15 of the last 19 years. This year's Bulldogs have some good pieces on the roster, with Courtney Harnish (500 and 1650 free), Meaghan Raab (200 IM and 200 free), Megan Kingsley (200 fly) and Veronica Burchill (100 free) all capable of championship final swims and both Chelsea Britt and Kylie Stewart having shots at scoring individually. But it's tough to see Georgia finishing top eight in any relay outside of the 4x200 free.


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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Bears have arrived! (video clip)


Just hanging out... (video clip)


Madds & Thleen take NCAAs (video clip)


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BearDevil
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

Sad but true. Those horrible comments are such a load of tosh, but I wouldn't be surprised if SwimSwam allows them to be published just cos controversy & inflammatory opinions do unfortunately tend to generate more clicks & views, i.e. "good for business & their advertisers"... ~grrrrrrr~


It's all about clicks for SwimSwam. They know their readership and know what drives comments. There's a comments feeding frenzy for any articles on Teri, Missy, and Florida's Gregg Troy. I skip the comments sections on those.

Durden, Texas Coach Edfie Reese, and LSJU's Greg Meehan generally get rave reviews. SS also knows hot button social issues like gay swimmers, a transgender Harvard swimmer, or a Michigan gender fluid swimmer will drive traffic.

The sexist comment addressed above is especially troubling since swimming's chronic sexual abuse issues are every bit as disturbing as gymnastics. They typically have at least two articles a week on sexually exploitive coaches.
BearDevil
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One thing not mentioned is that Sophie ended up as the 2nd alternate and Chenoa was the fifth alternate nationally. Both are slightly ahead of schedule from what was anticipated when they were recruited: potential scorers as juniors and seniors.
bearz012
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2018 W. NCAA PICKS: MICHIGAN THREATENING PAC-12 GIANTS IN 800 FR RELAY

Cal had freshman Robin Neumann lead-off in a big best time of 1:43.38, a time she validated individually (1:43.6). Kathleen Baker and Katie McLaughlin had identical legs of 1:43.29, and Amy Bilquist finished it off in 1:42.66. All three of their returning swimmers were a bit quicker at NCAAs last year, including a 1:42.6 lead-off from Baker and a 1:42.0 leg from Bilquist. Holding McLaughlin and Neumann constant from their bests, they project to come in around the 6:50-6:51 mark as well.

Cal won't be the only team challenging Stanford for the win, as Michigan boasts three swimmers ranked inside top-7 in the country this year, and four within the top-20. Their ace Siobhan Haughey, who was 4th in the individual 200 last year at NCAAs, was left off the 800 free relay at Big Ten's as a precaution as it was rumored she wasn't feeling well. Without her they still won in a time of 6:55.43, making them the third seed behind Cal and Stanford.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS:
PLACE | TEAM | SEASON BEST | 2017 NCAA FINISH
1 | Stanford | 6:53.86 | 1st (6:45.91)
2 | Michigan | 6:55.43 | 3rd (6:53.63)
3 | California | 6:52.62 | 2nd (6:51.42)
4 | Virginia | 6:55.77 | 5th (6:55.97)
5 | Texas A&M | 6:55.60 | 9th (6:58.62)
6 | Louisville | 6:56.32 | 8th (6:58.41)
7 | USC | 6:56.85 | 11th (6:59.47)
8 | Texas | 6:58.63 | 4th (6:54.83)
bearz012
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2018 W. NCAA PICKS: STANFORD GOES FOR 5 STRAIGHT IN 400 MEDLEY RELAY

They thought they had finally done it. After years of Stanford dominance in the 400 medley relay, Cal appeared to have slayed the dragon and won their first NCAA title in the event since 2012. Then it came up on the board: 1. Stanford. Cal DQ. The streak continued. Four-straight NCAA titles for the Cardinal while the Golden Bears remained shut out.

In that NCAA final Cal got a big advantage on the opening leg with a near-American Record performance from Kathleen Baker (49.80), and Stanford pulled things even going into the freestyle where Abbey Weitzeil managed to hold off Lia Neal, before we found out she jumped early. Between Pac-12s and NCAAs that win gave Stanford seven straight over Cal, and they made it eight last month as both teams went under the NCAA Record.

At the Pac-12 Championships in February the two teams registered the two fastest times in history 3:25.15 and 3:25.50 with the Cardinal on top. The two teams had strikingly similar splits throughout the race. Ally Howe and Baker were both 50.2 on back, Noemie Thomas (50.20) and Janet Hu(50.38) were within less than two tenths on fly, and Simone Manuel (45.95) was just .05 quicker than Weitzeil (46.00). The main difference maker was the breaststroke, where Stanford's Kim Williams (58.61) out-split Cal freshman Alicia Harrison (59.06) by four tenths.

After breaking the American Record at Pac-12s in the 100 back last season, Howe wasn't able to match that speed at NCAAs, particularly in the medley relay where she was 1.73 seconds slower than her record-breaking 49.69. Provided she can stay even with Baker on the lead-off (who had a pair of 49.8s at NCAAs), Stanford should be good to win their fifth straight title. With a slight advantage on breast and the uncanny anchor ability of Manuel on the end, Cal will need something special to stop the Stanford machine. If Cal holds a 1.6 second leg after the backstroke leg this is a different story, but I don't think we'll see a repeat of last year.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS:
PLACE | TEAM | SEASON BEST | 2017 NCAA FINISH
1 | Stanford | 3:25.15 | 1st (3:25.35)
2 | California | 3:25.50 | (DQ in A-Final)
3 | Indiana | 3:27.81 | 5th (3:28.58)
4 | Texas A&M | 3:29.40 | 2nd (3:27.60)
5 | Texas | 3:29.51 | 3rd (3:27.74)
6 | Minnesota | 3:28.96 | 12th (3:30.85)
7 | Tennessee | 3:29.26 | 18th (3:32.81)
8 | USC | 3:29.96 | 7th (3:29.46)
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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BearDevil said:

One thing not mentioned is that Sophie ended up as the 2nd alternate and Chenoa was the fifth alternate nationally. Both are slightly ahead of schedule from what was anticipated when they were recruited: potential scorers as juniors and seniors.

Yes, encouraging progress for the pair that bodes well for down the road!

The swim media's focussing all the attention & spotlight on the Dream Team, and for understandable reasons - heavy-hitters such as Thleen, Abbey, Amy & Katie form the core scoring foundation for our Bears, both on the individual & relay levels.

But just as with our Egyptian Princess the past few seasons, Bears' unassuming Nono has been an unsung hero too, an invaluable points contributor as well as being such a brill asset in & out of the pool.

Reckon Cal will have quite a bit of scoring upside thanks to the unheralded rest of our NCAA squad, even as they fly beneath the radar of most swim pundits.

1) Keeks for example isn't projected to be an individual scorer from all those fancy charts. However if you look at her progress more closely, she had hit some major lifetime best marks in all 3 of her entered events @ the recent conference championship!

Blovad's 51.83 PB (over half a sec improvement from her 2017 Pac-12s) has her seeded #17 in the 100 Back @ NCAAs...a mere 0.10 sec lower should see her safely into Friday's B final.

Keaton's 1:55.72 PR @ 2018 Pac-12s (2+ sec swifter than her 2017 Pac-12s outing!) currently positions her #21 in the 200 IM - that time would easly have qualified for finals @ the 2017 edition of NCAAs.

A one-second+ drop from Keeks' 1:53.31 recent PB in the 200 Back (#31 seed) should also see her into the down final.

2) Madds' 52.03 from the 2017 UGA Invite places her in the #24 slot of the 100 Fly. Last year, Maddie hit her lifetime bests @ 2017 NCAAs, nailing her taper as a freshie (her 51.15 PB was good for #10 overall then). If Murphy can shave off slightly more than another half a sec from her 2018 season's best, chances are that she'll be a scorer in this event like last year.

And we haven't even got to our stellar frosh yet!

3) Sarah has already achieved a personal best in all 3 of her events, in the short time that our (other) Canadian star has dipped her toes in the little pool.

Darcel is already seeded #6, i.e. A final, in the 400 IM, after laying down a commanding 4:03.00 @ Federal Way to rank #2 all-time on our school's record books!

200 IM seed is #9, needs to be about half a sec speedier for A final qualification.

#25 seed in the 200 Fly, prob would require shaving off an extra sec to make it to the B final there.

4) Robin matched Sarah with a trio of PRs too @ Pac-12s.

Already sitting @ #6 in the 200 Free, after her pair of low-mid 1:43s.

Overlooked by almost everyone outside of the Bear family & fans when it comes to Neumann's 100 Free, despite having dropped over a sec to hit a big 48.09 PB @ conference. Should only take a 10 to 20 sec drop from that time to earn our popular Dutchie a scoring berth.

As for the 500 Free, a bit more of a challenge as finals qualification would likely involve a further 3 sec improvement over Robin's 4:40.92 best...but you never know...

5) Last but certainly not least - Ali who was grossly under-ranked at her time of recruitment (well by all but Teri it seems hehe) but who has progressed in extraordinary leaps & bounds since.

To be noted was Harrison's untampered enthusiasm for our Bears team, in fact was the first of our 2017 froski class to commit to Cal!

Most exciting & valuable contribution in the pool has to be Alicia's relay value, buttressing our medley relay squads into truly national title-contending status all-around (not to mention underscoring that Cal W Swim can, and does, develop world class breaststrokers!).

As for Ali's individuals, where lifetime bests have already been exceeded by significant margins as a Golden Bear, reckon that she doesn't have to do much more than replicate her 59.52 PR in the 100 Breast for a finals invitation to be in the cards.

Probably expecting too much of Ali to find an extra 2 seconds drop in the 200 Breast from her 2:10.56 best though, well at least in her frosh season.

Caveat to all of the above is that most of the team outside of the DT may have been well-rested @ Pac-12s, in order to strive for an NCAA invite, so there may not be much room for further time drops @ Nationals. Also consider that the freshman class will be challenged to perform at their very best in the uniquely intense & competitive atmosphere of their very first NCAA experience...

All in all, there's some upside for Bears scoring higher than the projections, but still not nearly enough potential extra points to come anywhere close to upsetting the Furdette Juggernaut even in a best-case scenario (well short of LSJU DQ'ing all their relays haha). However any previously unaccounted-for additional points should help to cement solid runner-up status for Cal, in spite of dangerous challenges from Texas A&M's breast & IM depth as well as from Michigan's mid-to-long distance strengths.

Go Bears!
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

And we haven't even got to our stellar frosh yet!
https://instagr.am/p/BgReQlLh6xV




UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

Should only take a 10 to 20 sec drop from that time to earn our popular Dutchie a scoring berth.

Don't know what I was on lol, and too indolent to revise my original post...obviously I had meant to write ".10 to .20 sec" haha


bearz012
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2018 W. NCAA PICKS: ELUSIVE SUB-50 CLUB GOES TO WAR IN 100 BACK

For fifteen years Natalie Coughlin, one of the most decorated Olympic athletes in history, was the only woman who had gone sub-50 seconds in the 100 back. Her clocking of 49.97 in 2002 stood at the top all the way until February of 2017, when Stanford's Ally Howe dropped a 49.69 at the Pac-12 Championships. It's been just over a year since Howe joined Coughlin under the barrier, and in that time three more women have joined the elusive club, setting up an epic battle at the 2018 NCAA Championships.

Kathleen Baker did it twice at the 2017 NCAAs, ultimately winning the title in 49.84 (she led off the medley relay in 49.80). Cardinal senior Janet Hu, a two-time NCAA A-finalist in the event, defeated Baker to win the 2018 Pac-12 title in 49.93. With Baker being the 100 back Olympic bronze medalist and Hu an established top tier swimmer in the NCAA, neither of those two going sub-50 was a big surprise, but the other woman who did it certainly was.

Baker, the only one of the bunch to go sub-50 twice, was slightly faster at Pac-12s this year than last, indicating she's on track to go below 49.8. Howe wasn't able to match her record swim at NCAAs last season, placing 4th in 50.58. She led off the medley relay at Pac-12s in 50.21 (opting out of the individual event), and if the speculation of Stanford resting less than usual for Pac-12s is true, then she's in line to crack 50 once again as well. However, the consistency and clutchness of Baker tips the scales in her favor.

NC State's Elise Haan unleashed a PB of 50.75 to win ACCs, putting her in the mix for her first individual A-final berth. Last season she was in the consols (13th), along with Seidt (12th) and Cal's Amy Bilquist (9th). Bilquist has been sub-51 on four separate occasions and was solid at Pac-12s (51.28). The battle for a spot in the top-8 is going to be tight, but with Bilquist consistently under 51 throughout her career she's in a good spot to jump up from her 11th seed.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS
PLACE | SWIMMER | TEAM | SEASON BEST | BEST TIME
1 | Kathleen Baker | Cal | 50.13 | 49.80
2 | Ally Howe | Stanford | 50.21 | 49.69
3 | Janet Hu | Stanford | 49.93 | 49.93
4 | Beata Nelson | Wisconsin | 49.74 | 49.74
5 | Hannah Stevens | Missouri | 50.91 | 50.57
6 | Claire Adams | Texas | 51.13 | 50.95
7 | Asia Seidt | Kentucky | 50.86 | 50.86
8 | Amy Bilquist | Cal | 51.28 | 50.50

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USA Swimming Stats:



bearz012
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2018 W. NCAA PREVIEWS: AFTER FAST RISE, ERIKA BROWN EYEING 100 FLY GOLD

There are a handful of returning finalists set to challenge Brown for the NCAA title, including USC's Louise Hansson, Stanford's Janet Hu, Cal's Noemie Thomas, and Ohio State's Liz Li. At Pac-12s, Hansson successfully defended her conference title. She's closing in on the 50-second barrier after putting up a 50.17 in Federal Way. Li will have the home pool advantage and has set herself up well with a Big Ten Record of 50.48 from last month. Thomas and Hu haven't matched their bests this season, but Thomas has already been in the 50-high range. Hu opted out of this event at Pac-12s, so she hasn't shown all her cards yet. She's been as fast as 50.38 before. Though she'll be doubling up with this event and the 100 back, she'll be fresher for this race since it's her first individual event.

Cal has 3 potential finalists with Thomas, Katie McLaughlin, and Maddie Murphy. Like Hu, McLaughlin will be swimming a double on this day, but the 100 fly will be her first of her individual swims. She's already put up a best time this season, clocking a 51.17 at Pac-12s. That was her first best time in the event since 2015. Murphy placed 10th in this race as a freshman last season. She's in range of making the A final with a lifetime best 51.15, though she's seeded with a 52.03.

TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | TEAM | SEASON BEST | BEST TIME
1 | Erika Brown | Tennessee | 49.85 | 49.85
2 | Janet Hu | Stanford | 51.27 | 50.38
3 | Louise Hansson | USC | 50.17 | 50.17
4 | Noemie Thomas | Cal | 50.77 | 50.44
5 | Liz Li | Ohio State | 50.48 | 50.48
6 | Katie McLaughlin | Cal | 51.17 | 51.17
7 | Haley Black | Auburn | 50.68 | 50.68
8 | Grace Oglesby | Louisville | 51.11 | 51.11

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USA Swimming Stats:

BearDevil
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[b said:

USA Swimming Stats:






Fake news: DeSorbo has eleventy hisself. #gameover
bearz012
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https://instagr.am/p/BgRiniKnx5k
Amy, Abbey

https://instagr.am/p/BgSD6Z1HvbF
Sarah, Ali, Robin
bearz012
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2018 NCAA Div. I Women's Swimming and Diving Championships Preview

California (CSCAA Rank: 2nd; 2017 NCAA Finish: 2nd)
After finishing second last year, Cal will look to get back on top and win its first team title since 2015. Junior Kathleen Baker leads the way for the Bears, as she enters the meet as a three-time defending champion in the 200 IM, 100 back and 200 back. Sophomore Olympian Abbey Weitzeil should make a huge splash in the sprint free events, with the fourth-best time in the 50 free and second-best in the 100 free and a major role in the relays. Keep an eye on Canadian butterfly specialist Noemie Thomas, as well. Cal's major weaknesses are in distance free and breaststroke, but their relays add a huge boost as they enter the meet with the top seed times in the 200 free relay, 200 medley relay and 400 free relay; they'll be seeded second in the 800 free relay and 400 medley relay.

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Swimming World: Predictions: Who Wins What at the Women's NCAA Championships

The meet will feature 13 individual swimming events and five relays, so Swimming World's David Rieder and Andy Ross each predicted their expected top three finishers for each event. Check out who they picked some agreements and some major disagreements and see who comes out looking smart when all is said and done.

800 FREE RELAY
David: Stanford, Cal, Michigan
Andy: Stanford, Cal, Michigan

200 FREE RELAY
David: Cal, Stanford, Louisville
Andy: Cal, Stanford, Tennessee

200 IM
David: Ella Eastin, Kathleen Baker, Sydney Pickrem
Andy: Kathleen Baker, Ella Eastin, Sydney Pickrem

50 FREE
David: Simone Manuel, Abbey Weitzeil, Liz Li
Andy: Liz Li, Simone Manuel, Abbey Weitzeil

400 MEDLEY RELAY
David: Stanford, Cal, Indiana
Andy: Stanford, Cal, Texas A&M

100 BACK
David: Kathleen Baker, Ally Howe, Beata Nelson
Andy: Kathleen Baker, Ally Howe, Janet Hu

200 MEDLEY RELAY
David: Cal, Stanford, Indiana
Andy: Cal, Indiana, Stanford

200 BACK
David: Kathleen Baker, Asia Seidt, Janet Hu
Andy: Kathleen Baker, Asia Seidt, Janet Hu

100 FREE
David: Simone Manuel, Mallory Comerford, Abbey Weitzeil
Andy: Simone Manuel, Mallory Comerford, Abbey Weitzeil

200 FLY
David: Ella Eastin, Louise Hansson, Katie McLaughlin
Andy: Ella Eastin, Louise Hansson, Megan Kingsley

400 FREE RELAY
David: Cal, Stanford, Virginia
Andy: Stanford, Cal, Michigan
bearz012
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Kathleen Baker battles Crohn's disease while leading Cal swim team

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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Predictions: Who Wins What at the Women's NCAA Championships

https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/predictions-who-wins-what-at-the-womens-ncaa-championships-swimming/



https://instagr.am/p/BgTxuIajqXS
(Hmmm, v. disappointed that Abbey wasn't included here...well, at least Thleen's the headliner photo)
bearz012
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2018 W. NCAA PICKS: CAL TRYING TO HOLD OFF IU, STANFORD IN 200 MEDLEY

The Cal women took the 2017 NCAA title in the 200 medley relay by 2/3rds of a second, clinching the NCAA and U.S. Open records over Stanford and USC. This time around, the NCAA and American records are in certain danger, and the margin should be even closer among Cal, Stanford, and new threat Indiana, who finished fourth in 2017.

Cal comes into this race red-hot, after coming within .03 of their NCAA record last month at Pac-12s. At Pac-12s, Cal swam more-or-less the same relay line-up that they had at 2017 NCAAs, with Kathleen Baker on backstroke handing off to Abbey Weitzeil on breast, to Noemie Thomas on fly with Amy Bilquist stepping in for the now-graduated Farida Osman as anchor. Baker's 23.59 lead-0ff was just .02 shy of her fastest 50 back ever (a 23.57 from last season's Pac-12s) and .03 faster than she was on the record-breaking relay at 2017 NCAAs.

However, another notable swim for Cal in that Pac-12 race was on the B relay, where freshman Ali Harrison threw down a 26.75 breaststroke split (Weitzeil was 26.58 at 2018 Pac-12s and 26.67 at 2017 NCAAs.) 50 free American record-holder Weitzeil was 21.00 to anchor the 200 free relay at Pac-12s, so switching Harrison to breast and Weitzeil to free could add up to a a big drop for the team. Those four times (with Thomas's 22.70 from 2017 NCAAs that she nearly matched at 2018 Pac-12s) could yield an NCAA-record 1:34.02.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS
PLACE | TEAM | SEASON BEST | 2017 NCAA FINISH
1 | Cal | 1:34.13 | 1st (1:34.10)
2 | Indiana | 1:34.16 | 4th (1:35.26)
3 | Stanford | 1:34.79 | 3rd (1:34.90)
4 | Minnesota | 1:35.06 | 11th (1:36.12)
5 | Texas A&M | 1:35.54 | 2nd (1:34.85)
6 | USC | 1:35.36 | 5th (1:35.52)
7 | Tennessee | 1:35.21 | 14th (1:36.75)
8 | NC State | 1:36.07 | 7th (1:35.70)

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2018 W. NCAA PREVIEWS: A BATTLE OF AMERICAN RECORD BREAKERS IN 400 IM

One of the potential new faces in the A final is Cal freshman Sarah Darcel. In her first yards season ever, Darcel is already fast enough to have placed 5th last year. The top 8 cutoff may end up being a lot faster this year. It took a 4:06.00 to make the final last year, and the 8th seed for the meet is 4:04-low. Still, Darcel should make the cut if she swims like she did at Pac-12s.

TOP 8 PICKS
PLACE | SWIMMER | TEAM | SEASON BEST | LIFETIME BEST
1 | Katie Ledecky | Stanford | 3:56.53 | 3:56.53
2 | Ella Eastin | Stanford | 3:57.32 | 3:57.32
3 | Sydney Pickrem | Texas A&M | 3:59.30 | 3:59.30
4 | Brooke Forde | Stanford | 4:01.04 | 4:01.04
5 | Bethany Galat | Texas A&M | 4:02.85 | 4:01.06
6 | Bailey Andison | Denver | 4:06.10 | 4:03.09
7 | Allie Szekely | Stanford | 4:05.85 | 4:02.34
8 | Sarah Darcel | Cal | 4:03.00 | 4:03.00

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USA Swimming Stats
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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https://instagr.am/p/BgUAg1ShZMK

https://instagr.am/p/BgUBfG2AJS4
These smiley faces of our gritty & accomplished Bears above^ should be pretty familiar to all, but just in case:

Back: Katie, Amy, Val, Abbey
Mid: Robin, Sarah, Keaton, Kathleen
Front: Noemie, Maddie, Ali


https://instagr.am/p/BgUToregqAn

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ALL THE LINKS YOU NEED FOR THE WOMEN'S 2018 D1 NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS


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Cal Bears at 2018 NCAA Women's Swimming & Diving Championships Preview

While Golden Bears are projected to take 2nd place behind Stanford, they will likely still win plenty of NCAA individual and relay titles this week.

By Ruey Yen



The 2018 Cal Bears Relays should still be quite formidable, even after the graduation of Farida Osman.

https://instagr.am/p/BY9TfHYjbt3

While it is certainly a lock that the Cal Bears continue the streak of finishing in the top 3 as a team (2018 could be year 10 of this feat), the Golden Bears are expected to be a fairly distant 2nd place finisher in the team competition behind Stanford, last year's champions.

The loaded Stanford squad is possibly even better than they were last year. Although Olympian Lia Neal has graduated, both USA Olympic superstars Katie Ledecky (sophomore) and Simone Manuel (senior) have opted to retain their amateur status for another year. Stanford actually qualified so many swimmers and a diver (Olympian Kassidy Cook) that they have to bench one of their qualified swimmer to meet the maximum team roster size limit of 18.

Thanks to Stanford scratching a qualified swimmer, Texas A&M benefited by adding an extra swimmer and match Stanford with a full roster. Texas A&M is the only other school beside Cal that has any slim chance of upsetting Stanford this week. Saturday night may turn out to be a tight race between the Bears and the Aggies for team position.


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bearz012
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A full list of all of SwimSwam's previews....
tedbear
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Game time baby! Let's do this! GO FRICKEN BEARS!!!!!!
 
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