UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Here are some recent Recruiting v. NCAA records that I looked up for a few more collegiate women's programmes (all the creds due Swimswam's Andrew Mering for originally compiling the data pertaining to individuals & classes).
With the caveat that the data set & perspective that I have haphazardly outlined here are somewhat limited...not really comprehensive enough to draw any truly meaningful conclusions :p
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Stanford
2016 Recruits Class = #1 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 1st
2017 Recruits Class = #1 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 1st
2018 Recruits Class = #1 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 1st (456.5 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 69
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 39.5
Cal
2016 Recruits Class = #2 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 2nd
2017 Recruits Class = #5 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 2nd
2018 Recruits Class = #9 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 2nd (419 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 88
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 79
Michigan
2016 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2017 NCAA finish = 11th
2017 Recruits Class = #2 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 4th
2018 Recruits Class = #HM -> 2019 NCAA finish = 3rd (314 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 84
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 12
Louisville
2016 Recruits Class = #7 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 6th
2017 Recruits Class = #HM -> 2018 NCAA finish = 5th
2018 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2019 NCAA finish = 4th (235 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 60
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 32
Texas
2016 Recruits Class = #5 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 5th
2017 Recruits Class = #8 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 6th
2018 Recruits Class = #4 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 5th (190.5 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 41.5
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 33
Virginia
2016 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2017 NCAA finish = 12th
2017 Recruits Class = #12 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 9th
2018 Recruits Class = #11 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 6th (188 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 0
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 31
NC State
2016 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2017 NCAA finish = 7th
2017 Recruits Class = #10 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 18th
2018 Recruits Class = #8 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 7th (187.5 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 1
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 30
Tennessee
2016 Recruits Class = #6 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 22nd
2017 Recruits Class = #6 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 7th
2018 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2019 NCAA finish = 8th (185 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 0
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 80
Indiana
2016 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2017 NCAA finish = 8th
2017 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2018 NCAA finish = 8th
2018 Recruits Class = #6 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 9th (179 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 93
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 5
USC
2016 Recruits Class = #3 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 9th
2017 Recruits Class = #4 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 12th
2018 Recruits Class = #8 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 10th (159 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 17
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 56
Texas A&M
2016 Recruits Class = n/a -> 2017 NCAA finish = 3rd
2017 Recruits Class = #3 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 3rd
2018 Recruits Class = #7 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 13th (142.5 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 69.5
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 18
Georgia
2016 Recruits Class = #8 -> 2017 NCAA finish = 4th
2017 Recruits Class = #9 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 11th
2018 Recruits Class = #5 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 18th (66 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 8
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 0
Florida
2016 Recruits Class = #12 -> 2017 NCAA finish = n/a (0 pts)
2017 Recruits Class = #7 -> 2018 NCAA finish = 35th
2018 Recruits Class = #3 -> 2019 NCAA finish = 24th (44 pts)
... 2019 NCAA Senior points loss for 2020 NCAAs = 35
... 2019 NCAA Junior points loss for 2021 NCAAs = 0
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Reckon a case can definitely be made for Virginia's march towards the big prize in the near future - ZERO graduating points loss for next season + one of the top incoming freshman class of 2019 {pending SS' forthcoming rankings} + likely the top recruiting class of 2020 as well. If in-house development can keep up with recruiting momentum over in Charlottesville, could very well see the Hoos achieving a #1-3 finish as early as 2020 NCAAs!
OTOH, the all-too-familiar scenario of LSJU repeating as NCAA Champions doesn't look threatened at all, in spite of our valiant Bears' heroic accomplishments last March that came so agonisingly within striking distance of achieving the impossible.
If anything, the Furdette Juggernaut should roll over any challengers with a bigger margin of victory in 2020, and looking beyond then - thanks to 3 consecutive #1 recruiting classes leading to their lowerclassmen doing much of the heavy-lifting @ 2019 NCAAs. As per SwimSwam's effusive praises of Meehan & Slusser's recruiting prowess:SwimSwam said:
LSJU -
2016 class: "Our unquestioned number one. Five top 20 recruits, including Katie Ledecky, who needs no introduction."
2017 class: "Rarely do we see something like four top 10 and five top 20 recruits committing to the same school quite like we've seen it happen with the Stanford women. Welcome to Greg Meehan's dynasty."
2018 class: "It's difficult to see a future where Stanford is NOT winning national titles through this class's senior collegiate seasons."
Back in March, the freshie saplings, despite underperforming somewhat relative to their previously expected dominance, stood out as the only class in the whole field to net triple-digit individual points - 127 - compared to the 2nd highest frosh class' 50 pts from our very own froskis, of which Izzy had contributed 37...closely followed by NC State freshmen's 47.5 & Michigan aka MacNeil's 45.
Stanford still won in spite of junior Drabot scoring almost 30 pts less than in her sophomore year, Byrnes 14 pts fewer, Szekely not scoring, with even superstar Eastin contributing a relative deficit of 6 pts in her final year. The Cardinal sophomores also ranked tops with their 67 pts - only class close was the Cavaliers sophs' 49 pts. In comparison, Robin had repped our sophomore Bears well, being responsible for all of their 14 pts total.
The next several years could prove to be quite a challenge for Cal in the national title race, after losing the Dream Team (Billy & Bug), to be followed subsequently by Abbey (not to mention Madds & Keeks' invaluable contributions) - our justifiably famed relays will be quite adversely impacted, for one.
Staying in the top three may not be immediately threatened, but unless Bears kill it in the recruiting area and/or several team members step up to fill the void, could turn out to be a bit of a reloading period (hopefully not to the extent of a UGA or UF). For example, when Cal's current upperclassmen graduate, we will forfeit significantly more points (167 individual pts) than any other team.
As for some of these other teams, NC State (Holloway doing a great job of keeping up with DeSorbo in terms of recruiting & results), Tennessee (just 1 graduating senior point - but 2021 NCAAs could hit them hard with an 80 pts loss from their current juniors, led by Erika's 46) & Georgia (will lose only 8 pts to graduation in the next 2 seasons, as the Dawgs' recruiting have more than nicely rebounded a few years after the alleged Bauerle-Kalisz scandal) are all looking good to improve upon their standings next season, following in Virginia's wake.
#10 'SC will also be presented an opportunity to redeem themselves, losing only 17 pts to graduation. WHilst quality recruits classes continue to pour into the Trojanettes fold, Salo has to be ever aware that his juniors class jewel claimed 56 pts, with his lowerclassmen not scoring a single point (their crosstown rival, #17 UCLA, has to be even more concerned, since all of the Bruins' 75 point tally were accomplished by their 2 senior divers).
On the flip side, Louisville (mayhaps a temporary hiccup, as they have a really good 2020 class assembled), Michigan (altho UM does have 11 incoming signees for 2019, with a v. solid 2020 class so far) & Indiana (Lilly & diver Jessica Parratt accounted for 65 of IU's 93 senior pts, their medley relays will feel King's loss the most) will face uphill battles to maintain or improve upon their lofty #3, #5 & #9 finishes.
TAMU won't find it easy either after a disappointing 13th place finish in view of all their past successes - will have to find some way of replacing their 69.5 senior points deficit.
Then there is Texas who will need to start fulfilling the promise of their talented recruits (much-vaunted 2018 recruits managed a combined 3 pts @ 2019 NCs), if the upperclassmen/diver-heavy scoring Horns aim to avoid sliding down from their #5 placement.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
With 2019 NCAAs concluded not that long ago, it may be a wee premature to look ahead to what next season may have in store for our Bears, but what the heck lol.
Feeling really confident that placing top 3 for 12 years in a row will be more likely to go down than not, short of an unprecedented series of disasters :p
Solid chance too of repeating as National Runner-Ups, I reckon...whilst noting the very real & dangerous threats of fast rising programmes such as UVa & NCSU, who will both bring in an amazing recruiting class next season & beyond, whilst losing virtually no graduating senior points, compared to Cal's massive 88 individual pts deficit (Billy & Bug).
Sobering realisation - unlikely for relay records to fall like dominoes next championship season as they did for us @ this season's Pac-12s & NCAAs. Indeed Bears could very well end up more towards the middle of the pack @ A finals in 2020, absent 2 devastating sprint & mid-sprint free legs + back/fly stroke domination from Katie & Amy
Now bringing about an upset of the once again heavily favoured Furdette Juggernaut @ 2020 NCAAs would probably be asking rather too much of the team, after having come so close recently - the Trees just continue to have too much depth, even if several of their squad were to underperform as they did back in March.
The one narrow window of opportunity (extremely wishful thinking? ) which may present itself would be if Ruck was to redshirt for the Olympic year, with everything else going just about perfect for Bears in virtually every dept - an incredibly tall order indeed...
Oh well, let's end on a bright note by reliving the heady excitement of a couple of record-smashing relays
That's kind of a sad home schedule, as it usually is every other year. We should add a home and away dual meet with Virginia . I will try to make one of the Arizona meets, and might even hold my nose and head over to PA this year.UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Schedule for the season is now out:
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2019-20 Women's Swimming & Diving Schedule
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Looks like the mid-season meet to aim for 2020 NCAA invites will be the the Minnesota Invitational on 4 - 7 Dec this year, with the option to go for Olympic Trials cut and get a spot of long course racing practice in will be that Sunday.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Schedule for the season is now out:
Looks like the mid-season meet to aim for 2020 NCAA invites will be the the Minnesota Invitational on 4 - 7 Dec this year, with the option to go for Olympic Trials cut and get a spot of long course racing practice in will be that Sunday.
That list doesn't make sense. So are Gretchen and Isa on the National Team then?UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Well done Izzy on her selection! (100 Free + 100 Back)
https://www.usaswimming.org/docs/default-source/national-junior-teamdocuments/rosters/2019-20-national-junior-team-roster.pdf?sfvrsn=2
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USA Swimming Announces 2019-2020 U.S. National Junior Team Roster
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tedbear said:
That list doesn't make sense. So are Gretchen and Isa on the National Team then?
UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Andrew and Katie qualified in the exact same two events, 100 Fly and 200 Free.UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:tedbear said:
That list doesn't make sense. So are Gretchen and Isa on the National Team then?
Short answer to that is: Yes!!!
Longer answer here: 115 SWIMMERS SELECTED TO USA SWIMMING'S 2019-2020 NATIONAL TEAM
tedbear said:
Andrew and Katie qualified in the exact same two events, 100 Fly and 200 Free.
Wow. Had no idea. Great looking couple!!UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:tedbear said:
Andrew and Katie qualified in the exact same two events, 100 Fly and 200 Free.
Now that's the very definition of a power couple lol (reckon can be mentioned here since the pair had shared this publicly for a while now ) ... has to be SwimSwam readers' favourite at any rate hehe
https://instagr.am/p/BqlYqaDFZM_
https://instagr.am/p/Bvu9lUblJmH
Although I would venture to offer that Bug may be the lead partner 'ere?? -> #2 (both in the 200 Free & 100 Fly) v. Seli #6 (200 Free), #4 (100 Fly)... :p
HBear said:
Figured I'd place the pre-season, projected NCAA finish rankings from SwimSwam for anybody who wants to join me in comprehensive team-by-team analysis on the women's side:
Top 3 to come, with UVa, Cal, LSJU almost certainly occupying those spots.
HBear said:
Pre-season picks for each swimming event, as per SwimSwam:
SWIMSWAM'S 2019-2020 NCAA DIVISION I WOMEN'S PRESEASON PICKS
Cal highlighted as unanimous or majority favorites in 3 of the 5 relays -- 200 FR, 400 FR, and the 400 medley (also receiving nods in the 800 free and 200 medley relays), while Abbey headlines the 50/100 FR events with a tie for 200 FR champion alongside UVa's Paige Madden.
Go Bears!
GO SEE CAL said:
"I think this might be a special year for Cal. Maybe not the top tier like they've had in the recent past but better depth. If they can stay motivated for six months and build their camaraderie we might be looking at a national championship."
HBear said:
Snooped around a bit and found the King/Queen of the Pool results from the Bears' first race of the season -- links on host Cal Poly's website: overall results and event-by-event results.
I'll leave more of the heavy-duty analysis and times-pulling from years past to the experts, but exciting afternoon to kick off the season!
bearz012 said:
Final Placing (combined time for all 5 events)
2018
01. Abbey........4:44.22
02. Keaton.......4:49.43
03. Sarah.........4:53.88
04. Robin.........4:56.65
05. Alicia.........4:57.08
06. Elise..........4:59.14
07. Jenna.......4:59.48
08. Chenoa....4:59.54
09. Ema.........4:59.57
10. Ali.............5:00.85
11. Aislinn.......5:01.83
12. Alexa S-N..5:02.24
13. Maddie......5:03.11
14. Natalie......5:03.49
15. Dannie......5:03.57
17. Elizabeth...5:07.87
18. Courtney....5:08.57
23. Alexa B......5:16.17
(Amy, Katie, Alex S, Sophie K-Z didn't swim, Cass didn't swim 100 breast & IM)
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100 Free
2018
01. Abbey......49.38
02. Robin.......51.21
03. Elise.........52.07
04. Keaton.....52.18
05. Sarah.......52.22
06. Jenna.......52.75
07. Aislinn......52.85
08. Maddie.....53.18
09. Alicia........53.26
10. Chenoa....53.76
12. Ema.........54.07
14. Ali.............54.17
16. Alexa S-N..54.67
17. Cassidy.....54.79
20. Natalie......55.17
21. Dannie.....55.24
23. Elizabeth..55.40
24. Courtney...55.43
34. Alexa B.....56.63
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100 Back
2018
01. Abbey......56.47
02. Keaton.....56.70
03. Robin.......56.76
04. Alicia........56.89
05. Aislinn......57.59
06. Jenna.......58.38
07. Courtney...58.42
08. Sarah.......58.79
09. Elizabeth..58.81
11. Cassidy.....59.76
12. Alexa S-N..59.83
13. Maddie.....59.88
14. Chenoa.....1:00.23
15. Natalie......1:00.29
17. Dannie......1:00.72
19. Elise..........1:01.23
23. Ema..........1:02.25
25. Ali............1:02.33
35. Alexa B....1:05.97
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100 Breast
2018
01. Abbey.......1:03.35
02. Ema..........1:05.42
03. Chenoa.....1:05.54
04. Ali..............1:05.77
05. Keaton.......1:05.90
07. Natalie.......1:07.22
08. Alicia..........1:07.41
09. Dannie.......1:07.80
10. Alexa S-N...1:07.92
11. Alexa B......1:07.94
12. Sarah.........1:08.58
15. Elise...........1:09.98
18. Robin........1:11.23
20. Aislinn.......1:11.56
21. Maddie......1:11.85
23. Jenna........1:12.45
26. Courtney....1:13.00
29. Elizabeth...1:13.99
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100 Fly
2018
01. Sarah.......55.78
02. Elise.........55.99
03. Jenna.......56.13
04. Cassidy....56.57
05. Maddie.....57.10
06. Keaton.....57.32
07. Ema.........57.51
08. Robin.......57.74
09. Elizabeth..57.84
10. Abbey......58.15
11. Ali.............58.37
12. Dannie.....58.82
13. Alicia........59.00
14. Aislinn......59.04
15. Alexa S-N..59.20
17. Natalie......59.56
19. Courtney...59.89
20. Chenoa.....59.92
32. Alexa B.....1:02.23
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100 IM
2018
01. Abbey.......56.87
02. Keaton......57.33
03. Sarah........58.51
04. Robin.........59.71
05. Jenna........59.77
06. Elise...........59.87
07. Chenoa.....1:00.09
08. Ali...............1:00.21
09. Ema............1:00.32
10. Alicia...........1:00.52
11. Alexa S-N...1:00.62
12. Aislinn........1:00.79
13. Dannie.......1:00.99
14. Maddie.......1:01.10
15. Natalie........1:01.25
16. Courtney.....1:01.83
16. Elizabeth....1:01.83
24. Alexa B.......1:03.40
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Some quick notes:
- All around PBs by Abbey, Keaton, Robin, Jenna, Alexa S-N, Dannie, and Elizabeth.
- Good showing from our frosh, especially Alicia, placing top 5, with Elise and Ema close behind. Ema also posted a solid 1:05.42 for 100 breast.
- Maddie, Sarah, and Ali struggling a bit? Both off their 2017 PBs by quite a bit.
- Cassidy seems to be really dealing with an injury...
HBear said:
Figured I'd place the pre-season, projected NCAA finish rankings from SwimSwam for anybody who wants to join me in comprehensive team-by-team analysis on the women's side:
#12 - Louisville
#11 - Kentucky
#10 - USC
#9 - Michigan
#8 - Minnesota
#7 - Georgia
#6 - Texas
#5 - Tennessee
#4 - NC State
Top 3 to come, with UVa, Cal, LSJU almost certainly occupying those spots.
HBear said:
#3: COLLEGE SWIMMING PREVIEWS: #3 UVA WOMEN RETURN ALL INDIVIDUAL NCAA SCORERS
Freshman class stocked with plenty of SS' top-20 incoming recruits (the newly ranked no. 1, 6, 14, and 16 recruits in the most recent edition), lending themselves to a scarily bright projection for the Hoos.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:HBear said:
Figured I'd place the pre-season, projected NCAA finish rankings from SwimSwam for anybody who wants to join me in comprehensive team-by-team analysis on the women's side:
#12 - Louisville
#11 - Kentucky
#10 - USC
#9 - Michigan
#8 - Minnesota
#7 - Georgia
#6 - Texas
#5 - Tennessee
#4 - NC State
Top 3 to come, with UVa, Cal, LSJU almost certainly occupying those spots.HBear said:
#3: COLLEGE SWIMMING PREVIEWS: #3 UVA WOMEN RETURN ALL INDIVIDUAL NCAA SCORERS
Freshman class stocked with plenty of SS' top-20 incoming recruits (the newly ranked no. 1, 6, 14, and 16 recruits in the most recent edition), lending themselves to a scarily bright projection for the Hoos.
COLLEGE SWIMMING PREVIEWS: #2 CAL BEARS COVER THEIR BASES WITH NEWCOMERS
HBear said:
2019-2020 NCAA WOMEN'S POWER RANKINGS: FIRST EDITION
#5: TEXAS LONGHORNS (2019 NCAA FINISH: 5TH)
#4: NC STATE WOLFPACK (2019 NCAA FINISH: 7TH)
#3: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (2019 NCAA FINISH: 6TH)
#2: CAL GOLDEN BEARS (2019 NCAA FINISH: 2ND)
#1: STANFORD CARDINAL (2019 NCAA FINISH: 1ST)
HBear said:
Ranking the Best NCAA Division I Women's Swimmers From 1-25
Quickly skimmed, but check out the #2 and #8 spots in particular!
UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:
Anyone with plans to check out our Bears' home opener dual @ Spieker this Thurs afternoon?