SNAP went down about 25% today (based on FB blowback) but then reported blow out earnings with first quarterly profit and is now up 60% after hours. There are going to be a lot of investors punching walls tonight lol.
The U.S. Treasury 10-2 spread has dropped to 52 points (a negative number is an indicator of an economic slowdown for economists. For people playing politics, it may mean other things). The market view that the Fed will trigger a recession is growing.oski003 said:
CPI highest since 1982. Inflation higher than expected. This is dropping the NASDAQ today.
dimitrig said:
The market goes up, the market goes down.
Generally it goes up more than down.
As long as the Big Money keeps investing in it then it will be a safe play because they hate to lose money and will lobby everyone it takes to keep making money.
The rest of us are along for the ride.
DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
The market goes up, the market goes down.
Generally it goes up more than down.
As long as the Big Money keeps investing in it then it will be a safe play because they hate to lose money and will lobby everyone it takes to keep making money.
The rest of us are along for the ride.
A pretty big oversimplification on your part.
And the "market" could care less about someone or group, LOBBYING for higher prices.
Especially at this juncture, given where the 10 year yield is and where monetary policy is heading. In case you havent noticed, the Big Money has been getting crushed and technical support levels have been non-existent. And....the FED doesnt care.
Back to back - 85 point days in the S&P 500 is not "normal". This is not the time to be complacent.
dimitrig said:
The market goes up, the market goes down.
Generally it goes up more than down.
As long as the Big Money keeps investing in it then it will be a safe play because they hate to lose money and will lobby everyone it takes to keep making money.
The rest of us are along for the ride.
DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
The market goes up, the market goes down.
Generally it goes up more than down.
As long as the Big Money keeps investing in it then it will be a safe play because they hate to lose money and will lobby everyone it takes to keep making money.
The rest of us are along for the ride.
A pretty big oversimplification on your part.
And the "market" could care less about someone or group, LOBBYING for higher prices.
Especially at this juncture, given where the 10 year yield is and where monetary policy is heading. In case you havent noticed, the Big Money has been getting crushed and technical support levels have been non-existent. And....the FED doesnt care.
Back to back - 85 point days in the S&P 500 is not "normal". This is not the time to be complacent.
dajo9 said:
The S&P 500 is still up 12% from this time last year. And 88% from 5 years ago.
dimitrig said:
I disagree.
The market cares a lot about what the big money wants, because they can manipulate it. Maybe not at a micro level, but at a macro level they can and definitely do.
dimitrig said:
Easy come, easy go.
The markets can drop 50% tomorrow and it won't rattle me.
Or maybe we just care to discuss it with you!DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
Easy come, easy go.
The markets can drop 50% tomorrow and it won't rattle me.
Doesnt sound like you have much money at risk so its not an issue for you. Perhaps that's the case for most here at Bearinsider; hence the lack of interest in this thread.
calpoly said:Or maybe we just care to discuss it with you!DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
Easy come, easy go.
The markets can drop 50% tomorrow and it won't rattle me.
Doesnt sound like you have much money at risk so its not an issue for you. Perhaps that's the case for most here at Bearinsider; hence the lack of interest in this thread.
You didn't ask me but I wouldn't increase equity exposure as long as the Fed continues to signal reduction of liquidity (higher rates and / or quantitative tightening). This is the Fed's market right now.Unit2Sucks said:
Market taking another dive today. Thanks Putin.
I focus on VTI because it's so broad based but and it's *only* down 10% from all time highs. I was looking for 20-30% drop before adding more, so still feels premature. Obviously if I look at it on a sector basis, there are much bigger dropoffs (tech is off ~20% from ATHs).
@DiabloWags - please let me know when to catch a falling knife lol.
Unit2Sucks said:
Market taking another dive today. Thanks Putin.
I focus on VTI because it's so broad based but and it's *only* down 10% from all time highs. I was looking for 20-30% drop before adding more, so still feels premature. Obviously if I look at it on a sector basis, there are much bigger dropoffs (tech is off ~20% from ATHs).
@DiabloWags - please let me know when to catch a falling knife lol.
I did in March 2009, sort of. I bought on the way down and made my last purchase at the absolute trough. I am not hoping to catch the bottom here, but looking for a steeper decline before I start deploying. I still think the market is overcooked so I'm looking for VTI to go back under $200 (vs ATH of ~240) before it becomes interesting to me again.DiabloWags said:Unit2Sucks said:
Market taking another dive today. Thanks Putin.
I focus on VTI because it's so broad based but and it's *only* down 10% from all time highs. I was looking for 20-30% drop before adding more, so still feels premature. Obviously if I look at it on a sector basis, there are much bigger dropoffs (tech is off ~20% from ATHs).
@DiabloWags - please let me know when to catch a falling knife lol.
Unit2, you can never catch the bottom.
I caught the bottom in 2009 (with very small dollars) and 2020. In 2009, I was looking for psychological signs that we had hit the bottom. I accidentally saw Jim Cramer on Mad Money carrying around a picture of Vladimir Lenin and saying Obama had destroyed more capital than anybody since Lenin. I took that as my sign and bought. The market bottomed that week.Unit2Sucks said:I did in March 2009, sort of. I bought on the way down and made my last purchase at the absolute trough. I am not hoping to catch the bottom here, but looking for a steeper decline before I start deploying. I still think the market is overcooked so I'm looking for VTI to go back under $200 (vs ATH of ~240) before it becomes interesting to me again.DiabloWags said:Unit2Sucks said:
Market taking another dive today. Thanks Putin.
I focus on VTI because it's so broad based but and it's *only* down 10% from all time highs. I was looking for 20-30% drop before adding more, so still feels premature. Obviously if I look at it on a sector basis, there are much bigger dropoffs (tech is off ~20% from ATHs).
@DiabloWags - please let me know when to catch a falling knife lol.
Unit2, you can never catch the bottom.
@dajo - I hear you on the impact of the fed as well.
dajo9 said:
The U.S. Treasury 10-2 spread took another big dump today dropping down to .39. The Treasury market is telling us that going forward, inflation is not the problem - slow growth is.
dajo9 said:
I caught the bottom in 2009 (with very small dollars) and 2020. In 2009, I was looking for psychological signs that we had hit the bottom. I accidentally saw Jim Cramer on Mad Money carrying around a picture of Vladimir Lenin and saying Obama had destroyed more capital than anybody since Lenin. I took that as my sign and bought. The market bottomed that week.
.
Well the 10-2 spread has halved in the last month but if you want to attribute the move today solely to Ukraine, then ok. Just remember that a flight to quality from war in Ukraine is also a slow growth argument.DiabloWags said:dajo9 said:
The U.S. Treasury 10-2 spread took another big dump today dropping down to .39. The Treasury market is telling us that going forward, inflation is not the problem - slow growth is.
You dont think that there might be a flight to quality occurring that is flattening the curve given that Russia just invaded Ukraine?
Cramer's rant was in August 2007. Bush bailed out the banks in 2008. We're talking about the market bottom in March 2009. I'm sorry you and Cramer feel like Obama was being mean to the banks.DiabloWags said:dajo9 said:
I caught the bottom in 2009 (with very small dollars) and 2020. In 2009, I was looking for psychological signs that we had hit the bottom. I accidentally saw Jim Cramer on Mad Money carrying around a picture of Vladimir Lenin and saying Obama had destroyed more capital than anybody since Lenin. I took that as my sign and bought. The market bottomed that week.
.
I would suggest that it would be most valuable if you were to provide some context when it came to those remarks made by Jim Cramer (March of 2009) who by the way, voted for Obama.
Cramer was clearly concerned about Obama raising taxes and being unaware of the possibility that the U.S. was heading for a second Great Depression. At the time, Cramer was critical of many people, including FED Chairman Ben Bernanke (and St. Louis Fed President Bill Poole) for not responding to the crisis more quickly. His infamous You Tube rant (posted below) about "They Know NOTHING!" was pretty accurate given the run on banks at the time. There was clearly a liquidity crisis.
As I recall, President Obama was also criticizing the Banks at the time. I believe that someone like George Soros or Larry Summers must have taken him out to lunch and told him to stop doing that, given that it was counterproductive and that HE WOULD NEED THE BANKS TO GET OUT OF THE RECESSION.
The reason I state this, is because Obama wound up doing a complete 180 degree turn and his sentiment towards the Banks wound up changing dramatically.
Cramer - They Know Nothing!!! - YouTube