calbear93 said:I think that makes sense and depends on what your long term view is. I am in retirement so my risk profile is a bit more conservative. And it is company specific. For example in tech, do I think in 10 or 20 years, I can imagine Shopify being a 400 billion market cap. Sure. Do I see Tesla being a 8 trillion company. Not really. So, I can understanding investing in Shopify now even with a potential bear market driving it down by another 20% or so. Tesla as a short term play maybe but I have a hard time seeing high growth over the long term. Same with Roku. How big do I think streaming and advertisement to get for a company too heavily invested in hardware? But if it is a company you really like, I think valuation now makes sense since there is no way to time the market and most gains are made during short periods of time. If you try to time it, you will most likely miss out. I just need some reason to be optimistic for the near future.Unit2Sucks said:calbear93 said:I suspect the downward trend will continue for a while even with sporadic rallies here and there. Nothing good right now on the macroeconomic front. Unemployment is still too low and supply too limited. With the sugar high of free money coming down and geopolitical conflict continue to make supply chain and inflation worse, we will be in a full blown stagflation. With too many people thinking that they are too smart to learn from history or that high inflation was transitory and you can continue to reduce unemployment to unhealthy levels (thinking it is to be cheered when it will lead to inflation that will hurt even worse), fluff the markets with excess liquidity (why not just continue to print money, they said), and not consider the supply side (whether parts, labor, etc.), the pain that this country unfortunately feel most of this year was inevitable. People may care deeply about social issues and geopolitical issues, but they will vote on how much poorer they feel now. Doesn't matter who or what was responsible. If you run on making the country better for the average person, and the average person is much worse off, they are not going to be in a mood for excuses.DiabloWags said:
S&P down 3.2%
NAZ down 4.3%
First close under 4000 in the S&P.
The "crash" continues.
I rotated to cyclicals, energy and value in 2021 but even those are now getting hurt. My advisor invested some of what I liquidated in 2021 to commodities, metals and REITs. But there is really nothing safe right now.
This is a bit like irresponsible spender who rang up their credit card bills and are now paying the price. With interest rate going up, our debt service will be just that much more expensive. The FED is a blunt instrument, inflation a tough nut to crack, and recession the only way to bring this under control.
Having said all that, I tend to invest a lot more when the market is hurting, especially when I start hearing from reports and research that one or two of the macroeconomic conditions are showing signs of improving. My closest friends and I are tracking that very closely. From my general experiences, including those here, people are more interested in politics or theory than actual facts and data, so won't share my insight real time as I have in the past. But generally, too many inexperience investors investing at the peak and not enough when it is down. While I expect the market to go down further, I expect to start investing heavily as soon as either Ukraine situation resolves, the China zero-COVID policy is amended, and inflation slows down (that will take awhile and will require a deep recession to avoid a double dip recession by easing too early) with unemployment rate is back up to a healthier level and demand meeting the supply level. Saving up a lot of dry powder from selling in early 2021.
I love everything about your post and would ordinarily be in complete agreement but the rally after March 2020 shook me a bit. Nothing really improved except the market, largely because the Fed came to the rescue. But it has shaken my faith in what sort of data you can use to predict when things might start to improve.
In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if the market rallies long before we hit what should be peak negative sentiment. I deployed a small amount today (my first purchase outside of 401(k) in a few years and expect to continue to drip some in as the market continues to move down. I won't be surprised by some mini rallies but do expect the market to be negative the rest of 2022.
I generally don't invest in individual public stocks. I have a few private investments (one of which recently IPO'd) but apart from that I only invest in funds. So I can't take advantage of individual opportunities. At least until my wife stops working for a firm with very strict investment rules. Wish I could get into Shopify and a few others because I do believe they are going to be great long term.