I have historically invested in a manner very similar to your process. There are a few things that I value, especially for SaaS and software companies, but, while I do compare valuation (mostly to EBITDA) multiple to peers, the market always pays a premium for market leaders who will grow at a faster rate, have larger operating margin expansion, have a dominant customer base, and generate a lot of free cash flow.dimitrig said:DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
As to when to sell, even well-managed companies can be hurt by competition, deregulation, and other external factors. A big part of when I decide when to sell is if I think I see a better opportunity going forward and I need to raise cash for it. I don't mind being wrong and selling a winner if I replaced it with another (or bigger) winner.
So you dont look at a company's valuation relative to its peers in order to judge when to sell it?
For example, determining whether the stock is trading at a discount or a premium to the group?
Or on a historical basis to itself?
Your decision is primarily driven by seeing another opportunity going forward?
I'm trying to understand how you'd even go about making that decision in a disciplined manner.
Do you have some sort of a fixed percentage gain in your head that triggers a sell decision, relative to seeing another opportunity going forward?
I don't use valuation relative to peers. The leaders will often be overvalued compared to peers. It's something to look at for sure, but I don't make decisions based solely (or primarily) on that. Some stocks just have cachet and people buy them over peers that perform just as well or better. It doesn't make any sense, but it happens.
As for whether the stock is trading at a discount or premium relative to itself, sure, but that often has more to do with the broad market.
I do not have a fixed percentage gain that triggers a sell decision. That would lead me to selling the biggest winners and leaving me with dogs. I would call that a horrible methodology.
What I do is follow a basket of stocks I am interested in (and own) and periodically - maybe once or twice a year or when a significant event happens in the market like is happening now - I reevaluate them. If I see one that I don't own which seems more promising than one I do own then I will swap one for the other or sell one and buy more of another. Maybe a stock has been underperforming for some time and an event (like a new CEO) happens that makes me consider dumping it for something else. Sometimes it may have to do with segment of the market, too, like value versus growth or small cap versus large cap.
I don't churn a lot so these are decisions that evolve over months and sometimes years. It's not like I am chasing something shiny all the time, but I am regularly (on the order of quarterly) adding/removing stocks from my watch list.
Agreed. We need that flash down where everyone quits. Tis a very hard time to think buy but we are on the near bottom part of the V or U and will eventually probably pick things up at the same point on the upside of the V or U as some confirmation is needed. Just hard to come on and say "buy" now as there is that further downside that must flush out.dajo9 said:
Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.
dajo9 said:
Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.
dajo9 said:
Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.
DiabloWags said:
If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.
Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:
83.8%
dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:
If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.
Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:
83.8%
You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?
Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.
dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:
If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.
Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:
83.8%
You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?
Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.
DiabloWags said:dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:
If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.
Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:
83.8%
You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?
Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.
I'm fine.
I simply provided some charts that reflect just how dumb the definition of a Bear Market is.
It's meaningless and provides no useful information.
But feel free to deflect.
dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:
If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.
Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:
83.8%
You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?
Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.
I'm fine.
I simply provided some charts that reflect just how dumb the definition of a Bear Market is.
It's meaningless and provides no useful information.
But feel free to deflect.
You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time
dajo9 said:
Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.
I've noticed that you waste an awful lot of time here talking about things that you know nothing about.dajo9 said:
You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time
oski003 said:dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:
If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.
Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:
83.8%
You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?
Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.
Like in the 1990's?
DiabloWags said:I've noticed that you waste an awful lot of time here talking about things that you know nothing about.dajo9 said:
You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time
dajo9 said:DiabloWags said:I've noticed that you waste an awful lot of time here talking about things that you know nothing about.dajo9 said:
You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time
You seem like a genuinely unhappy person.
Oh well
From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.
OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.
This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.calbear93 said:Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.
From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.DiabloWags said:
OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.
Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.dajo9 said:This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.calbear93 said:Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
I agree. However, the trick is making sure you watch macroeconomic indicators and not just the market. If you see relief on some of the pressures that are leading to the sentiment after the speculators have capitulated, I would jump on quickly. I am OK with missing the bottom either with it going down further or missing some of the upside, as long as I am OK with macroeconomic conditions. Just from my extended past experience and what has worked for me.OdontoBear66 said:Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.DiabloWags said:
OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.
Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.calbear93 said:Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.dajo9 said:This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.calbear93 said:Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
OdontoBear66 said:Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.DiabloWags said:
OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.
Really, you don't remember our discussion from 2021 on inflation and what you said back then or your take on equity market on 2017 and what you said back then? When have you been right about macroeconomic trends? Maybe rely on actual managers of active funds, sell side analysts or company executives on general market conditions instead of twitter.dajo9 said:Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.calbear93 said:Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.dajo9 said:This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.calbear93 said:Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
Quality companies with cash, and undervalued in an up market works great. I also owned tons of tech and did not get out at the top, but did pare back after some profit loss.calbear93 said:I agree. However, the trick is making sure you watch macroeconomic indicators and not just the market. If you see relief on some of the pressures that are leading to the sentiment after the speculators have capitulated, I would jump on quickly. I am OK with missing the bottom either with it going down further or missing some of the upside, as long as I am OK with macroeconomic conditions. Just from my extended past experience and what has worked for me.OdontoBear66 said:Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.DiabloWags said:
OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.
And with those companies you mentioned, I would invest as well especially NVDA. I bet big on NVDA just before the internet bubble popped when they were mainly video processing chip company, felt tempted to sell when everything was going down big with all internet companies, kept it because I didn't want to take a huge loss even as I watched it go down and other companies like Exodus that I invested in go bankrupt and watching my meager life saving going down every day, and held - they have not been part of my sell in 2020 and would buy more when I go back in - just shows that quality companies will eventually bring long term return and a few big wins like Danaher, NVDA, APPL will outweigh by far even complete losses like Exodus.
calbear93 said:Really, you don't remember our discussion from 2020 on inflation and what you said back then or your take on equity market on 2017 and what you said back then? When have you been right about macroeconomic trends? Maybe rely on actual managers of active funds, sell side analysts or company executives on general market conditions instead of twitter.dajo9 said:Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.calbear93 said:Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.dajo9 said:This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.calbear93 said:Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/100562/replies/1852155
LOL. Just stop. Your nonsense may fool people here with no actual market knowledge but just with political agenda but actual people who have been in the market for awhile and have worked with professionals know bull**** when we see it. I have no idea if there is anyone with any actual experience being an executive at a public company or who have managed funds who think you are even remotely knowledgeable about this.dajo9 said:calbear93 said:Really, you don't remember our discussion from 2020 on inflation and what you said back then or your take on equity market on 2017 and what you said back then? When have you been right about macroeconomic trends? Maybe rely on actual managers of active funds, sell side analysts or company executives on general market conditions instead of twitter.dajo9 said:Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.calbear93 said:Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.dajo9 said:This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.calbear93 said:Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.OdontoBear66 said:They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.dimitrig said:
I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.
Not looking to get in yet.
Things will get worse before they get better.From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:
— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.
"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR
https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/100562/replies/1852155
I'll take that as a no, you are unable to engage honestly and prefer to make things up about what other people say.