I meant following directions as in, "invest in index funds with a portion of every paycheck", not, "hey, SoFi is a hot Fintech, invest!!!"

Here is a cool visual financial tool from FINVIZ

Stock Market Map (finviz.com)

dimitrig said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

As to when to sell, even well-managed companies can be hurt by competition, deregulation, and other external factors. A big part of when I decide when to sell is if I think I see a better opportunity going forward and I need to raise cash for it. I don't mind being wrong and selling a winner if I replaced it with another (or bigger) winner.

---

So you dont look at a company's valuation relative to its peers in order to judge when to sell it?
For example, determining whether the stock is trading at a discount or a premium to the group?
Or on a historical basis to itself?

Your decision is primarily driven by seeing another opportunity going forward?

I'm trying to understand how you'd even go about making that decision in a disciplined manner.

Do you have some sort of a fixed percentage gain in your head that triggers a sell decision, relative to seeing another opportunity going forward?

---

I don't use valuation relative to peers. The leaders will often be overvalued compared to peers. It's something to look at for sure, but I don't make decisions based solely (or primarily) on that. Some stocks just have cachet and people buy them over peers that perform just as well or better. It doesn't make any sense, but it happens.

As for whether the stock is trading at a discount or premium relative to itself, sure, but that often has more to do with the broad market.

I do not have a fixed percentage gain that triggers a sell decision. That would lead me to selling the biggest winners and leaving me with dogs. I would call that a horrible methodology.

What I do is follow a basket of stocks I am interested in (and own) and periodically - maybe once or twice a year or when a significant event happens in the market like is happening now - I reevaluate them. If I see one that I don't own which seems more promising than one I do own then I will swap one for the other or sell one and buy more of another. Maybe a stock has been underperforming for some time and an event (like a new CEO) happens that makes me consider dumping it for something else. Sometimes it may have to do with segment of the market, too, like value versus growth or small cap versus large cap.

I don't churn a lot so these are decisions that evolve over months and sometimes years. It's not like I am chasing something shiny all the time, but I am regularly (on the order of quarterly) adding/removing stocks from my watch list.

---

I have historically invested in a manner very similar to your process. There are a few things that I value, especially for SaaS and software companies, but, while I do compare valuation (mostly to EBITDA) multiple to peers, the market always pays a premium for market leaders who will grow at a faster rate, have larger operating margin expansion, have a dominant customer base, and generate a lot of free cash flow.

For me, management is the most important. If I were interested in GE, I would give someone like Culp a lot of space because he focuses on things that drive long-term growth, like free cash flow conversion (not a lot of places to hide in free cash flow), operating margin expansion (make every incremental revenue have greater profit), clean balance sheet, etc. I think I have always expressed my deep admiration for Culp because he made me so much money when he was the CEO of DHR, with DHR as a one of my first big bets more than a decade ago.

I also like companies with a lot of recurring revenue that can better sustain market downturn as oppose to companies that are more cyclical and dependent on economic conditions, with companies participating in high growth industries with still growing addressable markets that are not saturated. For SaaS (or any subscription or razor/razor blade model companies), net revenue retention to see how much existing customers stay on and upsize or whether they are paying a lot of money to get new customers just to keep revenue steady. But my favorite is free cash flow, especially as a percentage of net income. If they are close to 1 ratio, you know most of the income is clean. Finally I look at their acquisition history. Organic growth is harder and too time consuming in such fast moving, disruptive technology industries, and sometimes you have to do either bolt-on acquisitions or a large acquisition for entry into an adjacent market. Where companies can go really off-track is getting too undisciplined on M&A and just try to grow an empire. That was one of GE's downfall. Same with HP. My key staples over the years, like DHR and Roper have been compounders with strong discipline on acquisitions, with justifiable premium over peers.

But I do look at companies regularly to see if I feel a bit uncertain about what is around the corner, especially at higher multiple. One company that has been one of my biggest wealth builder, Apple, has been in my portfolio since iPhone came out and my friend opened my eyes and explained that it was the smallest, fully functioning mobile computer when I was wondering why I would want a phone that looks like that (in fact, most of my wealth, including investing in Danaher and Roper when they were just a few industrial companies, were from my friends' sharing of their insight from their deep market knowledge and experience - although they also go me invested long-term on GS and J&J which have not done as well - but my fortune hasn't been from my insight but more from being humble enough to let them teach me). I am encouraged by Apple's recent move to more recurring subscription model (although iPhones are as recurring as hardware can get), I need to see some genuine innovation in the next few years, and I may pare back in the future if they just can't seem to do more than upgrade existing products.

Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.

dajo9 said:

---

Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.

---

Agreed. We need that flash down where everyone quits. Tis a very hard time to think buy but we are on the near bottom part of the V or U and will eventually probably pick things up at the same point on the upside of the V or U as some confirmation is needed. Just hard to come on and say "buy" now as there is that further downside that must flush out.

Saw an interesting exchange this morning that said take a look at the most beaten down techs when the time comes in tax deferred accounts. Can you believe TWLO down 79%, UPST down 94% ($401-25), CVNA down 92%, and SHOP down 84%. Scary down, but are they good enough to take a small portion in. Almost seems worth sprinkling some change at in the near future. Roth IRAs perfect (pull a Peter Thiel like move

Safer but still down significantly are AMD, NVDA, QCOM, and AVGO.

Happy investing with powder dry and shopping lists formed.

I bought some GME and AMC for the MOASS at the beginning of June

dajo9 said:

---

Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.

---

The Nasdaq has been in a Bear Market since February.

dajo9 said:

---

Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.

---

Look under the hood.
The flagship innovation fund for Cathie Wood (ARKK) has been in a Bear Market since March of 2021.
Broke the 200 day MA back in January.




Top 10 Holdings:

TSLA: 8.2%
ZM: 7.8%
EXAS: 5.8%
SQ: 5.7%
TDOC: 4.75%
CRSP: 3.5%
COIN: 4.2%
PATH: 4.2%
TWLO: 4.0%

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 200 day moving average:
Chart is from yesterday's close.

DiabloWags said:

---

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

---

You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?

Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

---

You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?

Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.

---

Like in the 1990's?

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

---

You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?

Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.

---

I'm fine.

I simply provided some charts that reflect just how dumb the definition of a Bear Market is.
It's meaningless and provides no useful information.
But feel free to deflect.

DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

---

You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?

Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.

---

I'm fine.

I simply provided some charts that reflect just how dumb the definition of a Bear Market is.
It's meaningless and provides no useful information.
But feel free to deflect.

---

You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

---

You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?

Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.

---

I'm fine.

I simply provided some charts that reflect just how dumb the definition of a Bear Market is.
It's meaningless and provides no useful information.
But feel free to deflect.

---

You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time

---

I dont bother watching CNBC.
But it's pretty clear that you do.
.

dajo9 said:

---

Welcome to Friday. As I type we are in bear market territory. My mentality has changed and I am cheering the down days. It's a matter of where do I buy and the lower the better.

---

That's so awesome.
An Elizabeth Warren liberal cheering on the Recession!
Welcome to the club.

dajo9 said:

---

You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time

---

I've noticed that you waste an awful lot of time here talking about things that you know nothing about.

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

If you think that we have just entered a Bear Market.... you havent been paying attention.

Percentage of NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX stocks below their 200 day moving average:

83.8%

---

You seem stressed. Are you going to be ok?

Historically speaking when we speak of bear markets we are referencing s&p 500 or dow Jones.

---

Like in the 1990's?

---

Right?
Actually, in literally one month the S&P fell 16.2% (December of 2018)
2800 to 2346.

Of course, our current monetary environment has nothing to do with what has been going on since 9/11.

In fact, the financial conditions index is the "tightest" it's been since March of 2020, 3x in 2008 (Lehman collapse), 2x in 2002, and 9/11. - - - Within 24 days (on average) of each of those signals the FED was CUTTING RATES.

That's clearly not happening this time around.
That's why the definition of a Bear Market (-20%) is literally meaningless.

Never mind that the equal-weighted SPX is only down about 14.5%

Just 8 stocks in the S&P account for 8% of the indexes 17.2% decline this year.

Think about what that means.

DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time

---

I've noticed that you waste an awful lot of time here talking about things that you know nothing about.

---

You seem like a genuinely unhappy person.

Oh well

Big move up to end the day and the 10 year yield didn't budge. I like that.

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

You should write a letter to CNBC instead of wasting my time

---

I've noticed that you waste an awful lot of time here talking about things that you know nothing about.

---

You seem like a genuinely unhappy person.

Oh well

---

Naaaaa, I just think that you're funny.
Just like I think CNBC is funny.
And Jim Cramer is funny.

The tweet below is obviously outdated data as it was before the stock market retreat but December inflation was 7.0%. It shows you how much of the inflation hysteria is media driven and not driven by people's real experiences.

The inflation bump was triggered by a combination of huge fiscal spending (by Trump and Biden in response to the economic crash that would have otherwise happened because of covid) and supply chain disruptions. The fiscal spending tsunami has ended and supply chain disruptions are still present but lessening. I fail to see how higher interest rates will help with supply chain issues other than to make them less of an issue by crushing demand - which does not seem helpful.

Imo, the proper course for the Fed right now would be quarter point increases and flexibility to end those if the economy is going into recession and inflation continues to decelerate. The Fed should continue to pursue QT (the Fed balance sheet has still not gone down yet) as evidenced by the $2 trillion in Fed reverse repos which is just bank liquidity with no place to go.

At the current rate, by the time the Fed is done crushing the economy in order to lower inflation, self reported financial well being will be much worse off than it was in the high growth inflation environment we had in Q4 2021.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

dimitrig said:

---

I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

---

I don't think it will be a V. I suspect even at the bottom, it will trade sideways for a bit. It will take some time and some more pain to bring the demand level to the supply level and limit inflation to the FED's 2 or 3% target. Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class. The last thing you need is for people who are looking at their investments and asking FED to protect the short term capital markets. The FED cannot create a W when inflation proves to be stubborn and they eased off too early. I think they learned from calling inflation transitory and now having to create more pain by having waited. I suspect inflation will be with us through all of this year. It will take something like the Ukraine war ending positively and inflation under control for the next sustained rally. Like you, I don't try to time the market but there is still too much risk. Have not sold since 2020 but not going in big right now.

OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

---

Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.

---

This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.

---

Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

---

Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.

---

This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.

---

Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.

---

I agree. However, the trick is making sure you watch macroeconomic indicators and not just the market. If you see relief on some of the pressures that are leading to the sentiment after the speculators have capitulated, I would jump on quickly. I am OK with missing the bottom either with it going down further or missing some of the upside, as long as I am OK with macroeconomic conditions. Just from my extended past experience and what has worked for me.

And with those companies you mentioned, I would invest as well especially NVDA. I bet big on NVDA just before the internet bubble popped when they were mainly video processing chip company, felt tempted to sell when everything was going down big with all internet companies, kept it because I didn't want to take a huge loss even as I watched it go down and other companies like Exodus that I invested in go bankrupt and watching my meager life saving going down every day, and held - they have not been part of my sell in 2020 and would buy more when I go back in - just shows that quality companies will eventually bring long term return and a few big wins like Danaher, NVDA, APPL will outweigh by far even complete losses like Exodus.

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

---

Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.

---

This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.

---

Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.

---

Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.

---

If you think NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 is a good buy then why not buy now?

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

---

Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.

---

This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.

---

Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.

---

Really, you don't remember our discussion from 2021 on inflation and what you said back then or your take on equity market on 2017 and what you said back then? When have you been right about macroeconomic trends? Maybe rely on actual managers of active funds, sell side analysts or company executives on general market conditions instead of twitter.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/100562/replies/1852155

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.

---

Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.

---

I agree. However, the trick is making sure you watch macroeconomic indicators and not just the market. If you see relief on some of the pressures that are leading to the sentiment after the speculators have capitulated, I would jump on quickly. I am OK with missing the bottom either with it going down further or missing some of the upside, as long as I am OK with macroeconomic conditions. Just from my extended past experience and what has worked for me.

And with those companies you mentioned, I would invest as well especially NVDA. I bet big on NVDA just before the internet bubble popped when they were mainly video processing chip company, felt tempted to sell when everything was going down big with all internet companies, kept it because I didn't want to take a huge loss even as I watched it go down and other companies like Exodus that I invested in go bankrupt and watching my meager life saving going down every day, and held - they have not been part of my sell in 2020 and would buy more when I go back in - just shows that quality companies will eventually bring long term return and a few big wins like Danaher, NVDA, APPL will outweigh by far even complete losses like Exodus.

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Quality companies with cash, and undervalued in an up market works great. I also owned tons of tech and did not get out at the top, but did pare back after some profit loss.

As a for instance as to what one believes I have had MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMD in out granddaughter account for the last 3 years and I hope all four are still there long after I am gone. The first two are safer top quality as we all know, the latter two are unbelievable companies that will be just fine for a long time. So I sold in the old guys account and held in the 24 year olds account. She is still ahead but not liking the downdrafts as anyone would. But this is an absolutely great lesson right now for young people. If you get discouraged for a minute take a look at a 40 year S&P or Dow or even Nasty chart and try hard to find the down blips (1987, 2001, 2008, 2020, 2022).
They are there but hard to see.

calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

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I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

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They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

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Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.

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This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

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Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.

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Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.

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Really, you don't remember our discussion from 2020 on inflation and what you said back then or your take on equity market on 2017 and what you said back then? When have you been right about macroeconomic trends? Maybe rely on actual managers of active funds, sell side analysts or company executives on general market conditions instead of twitter.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/100562/replies/1852155

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I'll take that as a no, you are unable to engage honestly and prefer to make things up about what other people say.

dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

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I have a lot of dry powder and have had it for some time now.

Not looking to get in yet.

Things will get worse before they get better.

---

They will get worse, but we are nearing the bottom of the "V" or "U" as you would call it. I need confirmation on the upside for re entering and will probably catch pricing about where it is today. Difference is that it will have a "Confirmed Uptrend" valuation of the market versus today's "Downtrend". Not cocky enuf to think I can find the absolute bottom, nor do I even seek it.

---

Rich people like us are not bothered by inflation as much but it is a killer for the middle class and lower middle class.

---

This claim is simply not supported by the data. 78% of American adults reported financially doing ok or living comfortably in Q4 2021. The highest level since 2013. What calbear93 is doing is simply taking his own policy preferences and dressing them up as something for the middle class and lower middle class. I am not saying inflation should not be dealt with. First the Fed should have started doing gradual 1/4 point increases much earlier. They should have proceeded gradually and should stop when the economy starts to falter and inflation appears to be decelerating (that is our current state), particularly since the reduction in government spending is already deflationary. Currently, the Fed is doing more harm than good.

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

Just to be clear, in your view, Americans are not currently hurt by inflation and the are living comfortably based on your data from Q4 2021. Hey listen, from how right you have been in the past (sarcasm by the way since), I will leave it to you and not assume this has anything to do with your portfolio or your failure to actually interact with middle class. Besides, in your view, this inflation is transitory. Invest accordingly.

---

Just to be clear, you are making things up again. For reference, you can read the first sentence from my first post this morning. If you want to try to re-engage on honest terms, be my guest.

---

Really, you don't remember our discussion from 2020 on inflation and what you said back then or your take on equity market on 2017 and what you said back then? When have you been right about macroeconomic trends? Maybe rely on actual managers of active funds, sell side analysts or company executives on general market conditions instead of twitter.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/100562/replies/1852155

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I'll take that as a no, you are unable to engage honestly and prefer to make things up about what other people say.

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LOL. Just stop. Your nonsense may fool people here with no actual market knowledge but just with political agenda but actual people who have been in the market for awhile and have worked with professionals know bull**** when we see it. I have no idea if there is anyone with any actual experience being an executive at a public company or who have managed funds who think you are even remotely knowledgeable about this.

You do you, and take my post as the opposite of the obvious reading as you wish.