The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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movielover
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https://www.ft.com/content/b5b1b3d7-ca51-482a-a028-45a81816559a

"But Ukraine's lack of robust, layered defensive lines is another reason the Russian army has been able to steadily press ahead and capture smaller swaths of territory along the 1,000km frontline."

https://www.ft.com/content/b5b1b3d7-ca51-482a-a028-45a81816559a
sycasey
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Big C said:

calbear93 said:

cbbass1 said:

calbear93 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

There are a lot of conspiracy theories swirling around claiming that this may be another Putin false flag, like the apartment bombings he carried out in order to justify the chechen war.



I don't put much stock in this stuff any more than I do the baseless conspiracy theories that Russian shills are undoubtedly parroting on BI.

I tend to think this is most likely what people think it is - an ISIS attack as a result of decades of Russian attacks on Islamic people.

Putin will continue to spout his firehose of falsehoods, but it's tough for him when even his corrupt puppet allies are disproving his narratives. WIll Lukashenko find himself on the wrong side of a window soon?




The simplest and most obvious answers are usually the most correct answers. Like you, I think the simplest answer is that ISIS found an opportunity to make headlines again, get publicity, and commit terror against a country they believe as an enemy to their world domination vision..
The simplest and most obvious answer is that the CIA and MI6 always have a back story that's designed to discredit "inconvenient truths," especially when they commit acts of terrorism.

After the U.S. destroyed the Nordstream pipelines -- and rather quickly after Seymour Hersh's insider account -- they came up with the rather implausible story about a band of Ukrainians on a yacht:

Quote:

German media reported then that five men and a woman used a yacht hired by a Ukrainian-owned company in Poland to carry out the attack, and that the vessel set off from the German port of Rostock.
-- AP News
The fake counter-story raises doubt & diminishes the impact of the "inconvenient truth" in the critical days after the event. As time passes, sham Western "investigations" prove inconclusive, and the Western establishment NeoCons continue, time after time, to avoid any accountability for their crimes.

As I mentioned in a previous post, all 3 of the sham "investigations" of the Nordstream sabotage ended without coming to any conclusion, without naming a perpetrator, and without revealing the evidence gathered.

Sweden closes probe into explosions on Nord Stream pipelines, saying it doesn't have jurisdiction

As I also pointed out weeks ago, Russia & China initiated a UN Security Council Resolution to investigate the Nordstream sabotage. The Resolution failed, with 14 members (all U.S. puppets) abstaining -- many of them citing the ongoing investigations by Germany, Denmark, and Sweden (which have concluded, with no findings).

There's still no evidence -- other than the CIA back story (which is pure heresay) -- to refute the Russian account. Instead of killing the gunmen on the spot, Russian investigators followed them to the Ukrainian border, while monitoring their communications.

Like I said -- they have all the phones for the gunmen, the 11 support people in Moscow, and the 40 people in Turkey. They've already traced the comms back to the Ukrainian intelligence HQ in Kyiv, and they've destroyed the building with a missile.

As many have pointed out, the alleged "ISIS terrorists" are clearly NOT Islamic fundamentalists. First, they're raising their Left fingers for the Shahadah, which no true Islamic fundamentalist would ever do. Then, their faces are blurred -- so they expected to survive (and enjoy their reported $5500 payout).



I'm guessing that there were no true ISIS warriors willing to lay down their lives as martyrs to help the U.S./NATO/CIA.

One of the more incriminating bits of circumstantial evidence, though, is John Kirby's flat denial of any Ukrainian involvement -- this while the concert hall was still in flames. Yes, focus on our fake ISIS terrorists! It's ISIS-K! It's ISIS-K!!!




I won't go into deep analysis of all these conspiracy theories.

I will just say this.

Either CIA is so incompetent that some rando on BI can find out about their secret activities, and therefore tje CIA doesn't really have the talents to do all the things you say they do or

they are in fact talented and some rando conspiracy theorist on BI Off Topic has no idea what they actually are doing.

LOL. this. Like these guys are so stupid they're going to leave an obvious trail. If you were planning something like this, you'd be like "first and foremost, we can't get caught". Even people who post on this forum would know that. Hell, even I would know it!

The only people I can think of off-hand that think they can kill hundreds of civilians without worrying about getting caught because there won't be any repercussions are Putin and the IDF. Ironically, they're not even stupid!
The US government actively warned people in Moscow that a terror attack might be coming, in a very public way. If the CIA was really behind this then I cannot fathom why they would allow that to happen. You don't publicize your secret missions!
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:

The US government actively warned people in Moscow that a terror attack might be coming, in a very public way. If the CIA was really behind this then I cannot fathom why they would allow that to happen. You don't publicize your secret missions!
The firehose of falsehoods has always been internally inconsistent. The claims about this attack have been fueled by Russian disinformation from the very beginning. And while tankies will rage on about US meddling, they will never ever criticize Russia for anything it does whether it's attacking US democracy or bribing officials to spread Russian propaganda.

The real head-scratcher is how pervasive is this behavior if we're seeing it on a small low-traffic offtopic board for a college sports fan website.
smh
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> And while tankies will rage on about US meddling, they will never ever criticize Russia for anything it does whether it's attacking US democracy or..

tnx u2s for a new word, at least for me. wikipedia's def..
> Tankie is a pejorative label generally applied to authoritarian communists, especially those who support acts of repression by such regimes or their allies. More specifically, the term has been applied to those who express support for one-party Marxist-Leninist socialist republics, whether contemporary or historical.
bearister
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sycasey said:



I cannot fathom why they would allow that to happen. You don't publicize your secret missions!


….and you never will fathom it until you read 3 Dimensional Chess for Dummies.
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bear2034
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sycasey said:



It's amazing how many completely unproven things are just treated as gospel fact by these people now.

-US performed a coup in Ukraine
-US destroyed Nordstream
-Russia never massacred any civilians
-Ukraine is run by Nazis

And so forth. Given the insane screed above, is it any wonder cbbass1 was the last guy to acknowledge that Russia had actually invaded Ukraine? Like, even as the tanks were rolling in he was still claiming that Putin wasn't going to invade. Hasn't shown any more humility on this topic since. It couldn't possibly be that HIS sources are wrong.

It is quite interesting that a country led by a Jewish president commands a military filled with Neo-Nazis.
Lets Go Brandon 12
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cbbass1
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Big C said:

cbbass1 said:

Detailed account of Moscow terror attack:
  • Terrorists are not ISIS; blurred faces, left finger; not martyrs, but mercenaries who expected to survive
  • Photo staged
  • Russians have ALL the phones
  • 11 support people in Moscow arrested
  • 40 additional conspirators arrested in Turkey
  • Attackers fled to Ukraine; phone comms were monitored all the way
  • Warning of the attack came March 7th, specific to Moscow, specific to concerts; warning passed through unofficial channels
  • Attack was originally meant to sow discord before Russian election, but security was too tight
  • Putin / Russians know exactly who's responsible, and have already responded by bombing a Ukrainian former civil defense site, which now hosts Ukrainian intelligence
  • Bottom line: Moscow attack was a clear CIA/MI6 covert op, requiring Presidential approval
  • U.S. denials of Ukraine involvement are 100% B.S.
  • This was one of the "surprises" that Victoria Nuland announced in early March
  • Ukraine has LOST THE WAR. This attack was a 'Hail Mary' -- a desperate attempt to get Russia to overreact.

All the details:
UKRAINE RUSSIA TERROR ATTACK | NATO'S NEXT MOVE RUSSIA, GAZA


You left out one detail: Why does Russia let the attack happen?

Also: How's the RFK Jr campaign coming along? Do you like the VEEP choice?
The original plan was to do the attack at the Shaman/Picnic concert on March 9th (just after Victoria Nuland's original warning), where there were many VIPs. Security was too tight to proceed, so they waited until 2 weeks later.

The only way to prevent such an attack is to cancel all large public gatherings. But if you remember back to 9/11, we decided that if we did that, the terrorists would win.


RFK Jr: Looked promising as a pro-peace candidate until he announced his unwavering support for Israel, describing it as "our aircraft carrier in the Middle East" to establish control of the oil supplies. That sounded a lot more like NeoCon foreign policy than Peace to me.

I realize that an independent candidate has to appear to cater to a lot of disgusting donors, but his associations with Steve Bannon and Rabbi Shmuley Boteach are especially odious.

However, I haven't ruled out voting for him. Both major political parties have hit rock bottom, IMO, and 2024 represents our best chance to penalize both for destroying America.

The one thing that RFK Jr has going for him is his political independence, and his willingness to do Jess Unruh politics**.

** - Jesse Unruh was a California legislator (D - Orange Co.) who once exhorted his GOP colleagues, "If you can't drink their booze, take their money, sleep with their women [he used a much coarser term] and then vote against 'em, you don't belong in politics."

His VP choice is a corporate donor, and I think she's a means to an end; she's probably his attempt to recover the following that he had among younger (<40) voters before he proclaimed his support for Israeli genocide. He might regain some younger Dems & independents with her, but he'll probably lose even more Libertarians & Trump followers.

So I'm still "uncommitted" in a sense; but still very unlikely to vote for either Biden or Trump, or RFK Jr.

IF the more sane voters of America manage to rally behind one of the independent candidates (RFK Jr, Dr Cornel West, or Jill Stein), there's a good chance I'll join them.

bear2034
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cbbass1 said:



IF the more sane voters of America manage to rally behind one of the independent candidates (RFK Jr, Dr Cornel West, or Jill Stein), there's a good chance I'll join them.

RFK Jr., Cornell West, and Jill Stein may be independent but not necessarily sane. Eventually, no one who isn't receiving some type of opposition from the people in charge, will remain independent.
Unit2Sucks
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smh said:

> And while tankies will rage on about US meddling, they will never ever criticize Russia for anything it does whether it's attacking US democracy or..

tnx u2s for a new word, at least for me. wikipedia's def..
> Tankie is a pejorative label generally applied to authoritarian communists, especially those who support acts of repression by such regimes or their allies. More specifically, the term has been applied to those who express support for one-party Marxist-Leninist socialist republics, whether contemporary or historical.

I think this is a bit dated - modern tankies support Putin and basically believe any anti-American propaganda or rhetoric.

One of the key qualities of tankies is that no matter how many times they've been deceived by risible propaganda, they continue to whole-heartedly amplify it. Rather than course-correcting when proven wrong, they just lean harder into the nonsense. They seem to be self-radicalizing.

The one thing that is crystal clear is that the nuttier they get, the farther they are from accomplishing whatever they think their true goals are. Helping elect Trump certainly won't get them whatever list of progressive wins they think they want, but all the tankies are doing their best to help Trump now.
bearister
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"Both major political parties have hit rock bottom, IMO, and 2024 represents our best chance to penalize both for destroying America."

That is a text book false equivalency argument and it would be fun to see a line item by line analysis with supporting evidence cited under the respective line items.

One of my favorite false equivalence arguments is that the media are equal liars on both sides. Well, when MSNBC writes a check for a whisker under $800,000,000 to settle a defamation case (because it feared a jury would award more) like Fox News did, and fires the biggest cash cow in its political talk show lineup (Tucker Carlson) like Fox News did for fear it would have to write more checks because of his incessant lying, then you might convince me the media outlets representing the opposite political poles in America are equal liars.

I once read that the difference between MSNBC and Fox News is that MSNBC takes the facts and passes them through a Progressive filter whereas Fox News just simply makes sh@it up.

With regard to the political parties being equally bad, only one party is the first in history to deny the legitimacy of a presidential election that it lost, only one party promoted the January 6 Insurrection, and only one party is controlled by and will nominate as it's candidate for POTUS, a twice-impeached, four-time indicted, insurrection-inciting , Sexual Abuser and business fraud adjudged former president……who thinks this is a smart thing to re-publish, especially when you take into consideration the limited mental capacity of a significant portion of his hateful base:

https://www.meidastouch.com/news/trump-posts-image-of-joe-biden-kidnapped-and-bound-with-rope



* Threatening the president of the United States is a federal felony under United States Code Title 18, Section 871. It consists of knowingly and willfully mailing or otherwise making "any threat to take the life of, to kidnap, or to inflict great bodily harm upon the president of the United States".
United States. Supreme Court; Walter Malins Rose (1970). United States Supreme Court Reports. LEXIS Law Pub. p. 665. Retrieved 25 July 2017. 18 USC 871(a), making it a felony to knowingly and wilfully threaten the President of the United States, initially requires the government to prove a true "threat.
18 U.S.C. 871
"U.S.C. Title 18 - CRIMES AND CRIMINAL PROCEDURE". www.gpo.gov. Retrieved 2015-08-07.
"18 U.S. Code 3559 - Sentencing classification of offenses | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute". www.law.cornell.edu. Retrieved 2015-08-07.
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movielover
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I believe Cal88 educated us here about glide bombs.

Business Insider: Ukraine says Russia in less than a week hit it with 700 glide bombs, weapons that can really only be beaten by killing the planes

Glide bombs have seen heavy use in the war, allowing Russia to hit Ukraine from safer distances.


"Shooting down the fighter-bombers means putting precious air defenses closer to the front, where they'll be at greater risk. It also means pulling stretched capabilities away from other areas. Ukrainian air defenses also don't have enough ammo.

"The only way to counter this barbaric tactic is to shoot down aircraft that drop these bombs, which requires a sufficient number of modern air defense systems at the front," Kuleba said, noting that "strong air defense on the front line would allow our troops not only not to lose ground, but also to force Russians to retreat." "

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3
Cal88
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movielover said:

I believe Cal88 educated us here about glide bombs.

Business Insider: Ukraine says Russia in less than a week hit it with 700 glide bombs, weapons that can really only be beaten by killing the planes

Glide bombs have seen heavy use in the war, allowing Russia to hit Ukraine from safer distances.


"Shooting down the fighter-bombers means putting precious air defenses closer to the front, where they'll be at greater risk. It also means pulling stretched capabilities away from other areas. Ukrainian air defenses also don't have enough ammo.

"The only way to counter this barbaric tactic is to shoot down aircraft that drop these bombs, which requires a sufficient number of modern air defense systems at the front," Kuleba said, noting that "strong air defense on the front line would allow our troops not only not to lose ground, but also to force Russians to retreat." "

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3


In terms of glide bomb usage, the Russians are only constrained by the number or air sorties they can manage, as they have a nearly limitless glide bomb capacity, they can turn a dumb bomb into a smart one by rigging it with a cheap winged kit. Ukraine can no longer hold on to its fortified positions, with the mid/large 1,500kg glide bombs creating 50ft craters.



This has been one of several gamechangers for the Russians in terms of technologies they have managed to develop and implement in large scale since the start of the war (Lancet and Geran drones etc). The main aspect of these new weapons is that they are cheap and easy to mass produce.
movielover
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Two years in, 45 4-star generals haven't figured out how to manufacture large-scale ammunitions.

I read a UK military leader said they couldn't fight Russia for more than two months. They'd run out of ammo and weapons. It also seems Russia has a huge cost advantage.

With all the bluster from the West, Putin has to also prepare for WWIII. Let's hope it never goes there.

Cal88, question on the unthinkable nuclear war. Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a 'limited' nuclear strike. They still launch 5 or 10 'limited' bombs, right? And then Russia unloads 10 or 20 intercontinental missiles, maybe hitting Europe and America - I thought I was told they don't send 1 or 2 because many will likely be shot down, so they want 2-4 to get through. So Chicago or Miami is hit, and then mutually assured destruction is launched by both sides from submarines.

Is this roughly correct?
movielover
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Big C
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movielover said:

Two years in, 45 4-star generals haven't figured out how to manufacture large-scale ammunitions.

I read a UK military leader said they couldn't fight Russia for more than two months. They'd run out of ammo and weapons. It also seems Russia has a huge cost advantage.

With all the bluster from the West, Putin has to also prepare for WWIII. Let's hope it never goes there.

Cal88, question on the unthinkable nuclear war. Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a 'limited' nuclear strike. They still launch 5 or 10 'limited' bombs, right? And then Russia unloads 10 or 20 intercontinental missiles, maybe hitting Europe and America - I thought I was told they don't send 1 or 2 because many will likely be shot down, so they want 2-4 to get through. So Chicago or Miami is hit, and then mutually assured destruction is launched by both sides from submarines.

Is this roughly correct?

"Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a "limited" nuclear strike."

Do you really think there is even a remote possibility of this happening? Half of the appeal of Biden is that at least he's a sane, seasoned professional, who's not going to go off the rails and do something bat s*** crazy.
Cal88
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movielover said:

Two years in, 45 4-star generals haven't figured out how to manufacture large-scale ammunitions.

I read a UK military leader said they couldn't fight Russia for more than two months. They'd run out of ammo and weapons. It also seems Russia has a huge cost advantage.

With all the bluster from the West, Putin has to also prepare for WWIII. Let's hope it never goes there.

Cal88, question on the unthinkable nuclear war. Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a 'limited' nuclear strike. They still launch 5 or 10 'limited' bombs, right? And then Russia unloads 10 or 20 intercontinental missiles, maybe hitting Europe and America - I thought I was told they don't send 1 or 2 because many will likely be shot down, so they want 2-4 to get through. So Chicago or Miami is hit, and then mutually assured destruction is launched by both sides from submarines.

Is this roughly correct?

Yes, there is no such a thing as a "limited" nuclear strike, it's armageddon the moment that pandora's box is open...


Quote:

"Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a "limited" nuclear strike."

Do you really think there is even a remote possibility of this happening? Half of the appeal of Biden is that at least he's a sane, seasoned professional, who's not going to go off the rails and do something bat s*** crazy.

The question here would be the use of tactical nukes on the front by NATO, who is the losing party. The winning party doesn't have any incentive to use nukes.

Russia would use nukes if their territory were overrun by a combined NATO force, though as it stands that is very unlikely, except for the Kaliningrad exclave, where the Russians are vulnerable to a NATO attack, as they cannot resupply there. NATO as well would resort to nukes if Russia rolled into Poland.
Unit2Sucks
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Big C said:


"Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a "limited" nuclear strike."

Do you really think there is even a remote possibility of this happening? Half of the appeal of Biden is that at least he's a sane, seasoned professional, who's not going to go off the rails and do something bat s*** crazy.


No one has ever called them useful geniuses.
movielover
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Big C said:

movielover said:

Two years in, 45 4-star generals haven't figured out how to manufacture large-scale ammunitions.

I read a UK military leader said they couldn't fight Russia for more than two months. They'd run out of ammo and weapons. It also seems Russia has a huge cost advantage.

With all the bluster from the West, Putin has to also prepare for WWIII. Let's hope it never goes there.

Cal88, question on the unthinkable nuclear war. Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a 'limited' nuclear strike. They still launch 5 or 10 'limited' bombs, right? And then Russia unloads 10 or 20 intercontinental missiles, maybe hitting Europe and America - I thought I was told they don't send 1 or 2 because many will likely be shot down, so they want 2-4 to get through. So Chicago or Miami is hit, and then mutually assured destruction is launched by both sides from submarines.

Is this roughly correct?

"Let's say Biden's regime decides to launch a "limited" nuclear strike."

Do you really think there is even a remote possibility of this happening? Half of the appeal of Biden is that at least he's a sane, seasoned professional, who's not going to go off the rails and do something bat s*** crazy.


Biden people gave spoken of using tactical, limited nukes.

Biden is a "a sane, seasoned professional" - who is suffering from some sort of mental decline, has allowed or even pushed the Russia-Ukraine war, and is supplying Israel with weapons to crush defenseless Gaza.

Further, we don't even have an active peace negotiator with Russia. We have no peace talks with either conflict. To be honest, we don't even know who's running the show - odds are its Obama. Today I saw a new Biden fundraising pitch by BHO. Is it POTUS by committee, are areas divided up, Blackrock obviously holds huge sway. It's a disaster.
bear2034
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When Biden became president, nearly three dozen House Democrats urged him to relinquish sole authority to order the launch of nuclear weapons.

Dozens of House Democrats Call on Biden to Give Up Sole Nuclear Launch Authority | Military.com
Lets Go Brandon 12
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bear2034
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Victoria Nuland is making good on her word?
Big C
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Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. I doubt even Putin would. Even Trump has never done-or-said anything to indicate that he would (in fact, from a "Trump Doctrine" standpoint, it's the last thing he would do... only thing is he's crazy, so ya never know... if the courts seize Mar-a-Lago, all bets are off).

Nukes: not gonna happen here. Remember M.A.D.? (mutually assured destruction... as Cal88 alluded to)

Even the most "war hawk", neo-cons in the US government don't want this to escalate beyond Russia-Ukraine. In their mind, we have a great thing going here as it is: no US boots on ground... ramp-up of the defense industry... get to see what Russia can and cannot do... modernize plans for the next war. It's "perfect" just like it is!

bearister
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Putin wouldn't have subjected Mother Russia to the meat grinder that is the Ukraine if he was inclined to use tactical nukes, or more. If he was so inclined he would have defeated Ukraine in 10 days or less, but no, he acted like the typical Superpower that avoids Armageddon by conducting warfare with both hands tied behind his back and ekes out a slow bleed out war of attrition victory.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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Are we actually wasting time discussing movielover's paranoid nuclear monsters in the closet?
Unit2Sucks
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Big C said:


Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. I doubt even Putin would. Even Trump has never done-or-said anything to indicate that he would (in fact, from a "Trump Doctrine" standpoint, it's the last thing he would do... only thing is he's crazy, so ya never know... if the courts seize Mar-a-Lago, all bets are off).

Nukes: not gonna happen here. Remember M.A.D.? (mutually assured destruction... as Cal88 alluded to)

Even the most "war hawk", neo-cons in the US government don't want this to escalate beyond Russia-Ukraine. In their mind, we have a great thing going here as it is: no US boots on ground... ramp-up of the defense industry... get to see what Russia can and cannot do... modernize plans for the next war. It's "perfect" just like it is!


Putin is the only person who has threatened nuclear escalation and he's done it numerous times. The US has zero reason to use nukes on Russia given that it presents no military threat to the US whatsoever. Of course, Russia presents a threat to our strategic interests, but that's a very different type of threat and not the type that we are inclined to fight with boots on the ground (or in the air).

The extent of our involvement in defense of Ukraine has primarily been sending over excess military equipment (most of it obsolete for decades) as well as financial and intelligence assistance, and of course sanctions.

Anyone who is pretending like Putin is a threat to win any war in which NATO is an actual party is either a useful idiot or just an idiot. Putin has his hands full against an poorly equipped Ukraine. What would he do if the US and other western powers decided to actually show up?

We have a comical amount of excess military equipment because that's how our military operates. There are so many operations/logistics/etc. people whose jobs rely on keeping this stuff available and they are creating a very large margin of safety before recommending/allowing us to send things to Ukraine. As you can imagine, the bureaucratic hurdles are immense. The cozy relationship between congress/military brass/military contractors (eg the MIC) has of course contributed to this ridiculous oversupply. Biden should be using the EDAA much more liberally than he has been.

We could easily send a few thousand Abrams over to Ukraine if we made it a priority but instead sent only 31. We need to stop with symbolic gestures and get them what they need to actually defend themselves.


Unfortunately, Putin has long known how cheap and easy it is to buy off American politicians, so he has had a tremendous ROI on that investment and as a result we haven't sent nearly enough aid.

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, the US and the American people will remain safe. And despite all of the rhetoric about Russia taking the fight to NATO, no one should be concerned about any sort of Russian threat to the continental US which is ~5,000 miles from Moscow when Russia can barely handle it's much smaller much more poorly equipped neighbor with whom it shares a 1,000 mile plus long border.
Lets Go Brandon 12
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Big C said:


Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. I doubt even Putin would. Even Trump has never done-or-said anything to indicate that he would (in fact, from a "Trump Doctrine" standpoint, it's the last thing he would do... only thing is he's crazy, so ya never know... if the courts seize Mar-a-Lago, all bets are off).

Nukes: not gonna happen here. Remember M.A.D.? (mutually assured destruction... as Cal88 alluded to)

Even the most "war hawk", neo-cons in the US government don't want this to escalate beyond Russia-Ukraine. In their mind, we have a great thing going here as it is: no US boots on ground... ramp-up of the defense industry... get to see what Russia can and cannot do... modernize plans for the next war. It's "perfect" just like it is!
Once you engage in this game of chicken that the U.S. and Russia have started in Ukraine, there's no way of knowing what either side might do when faced with losing. Anyone saying there's no chance of this escalating into the use of nuclear weapons is hopelessly naive or is too invested in the outcome of the war and lost objectivity years ago.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Are we actually wasting time discussing movielover's paranoid nuclear monsters in the closet?

It's not paranoid. While it's not exactly on the table now, it's only a couple of escalation ladder rungs away. In other words, we are in the most dangerous stage since the Cuba crisis, and back then, you had clear lines of communication with the counterpart Soviets, and cooler heads running the show.

The danger now comes from the fact that the communication lines have been broken, and also because there are a lot of people in the NATO camp who actually believe that Russia's nuclear arsenal is a dud, the kind of people terminally stuck inside U2S' information bubble, which unfortunately is fairly large.
Big C
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Palestinian Chicken said:

Big C said:


Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. I doubt even Putin would. Even Trump has never done-or-said anything to indicate that he would (in fact, from a "Trump Doctrine" standpoint, it's the last thing he would do... only thing is he's crazy, so ya never know... if the courts seize Mar-a-Lago, all bets are off).

Nukes: not gonna happen here. Remember M.A.D.? (mutually assured destruction... as Cal88 alluded to)

Even the most "war hawk", neo-cons in the US government don't want this to escalate beyond Russia-Ukraine. In their mind, we have a great thing going here as it is: no US boots on ground... ramp-up of the defense industry... get to see what Russia can and cannot do... modernize plans for the next war. It's "perfect" just like it is!
Once you engage in this game of chicken that the U.S. and Russia have started in Ukraine, there's no way of knowing what either side might do when faced with losing. Anyone saying there's no chance of this escalating into the use of nuclear weapons is hopelessly naive or is too invested in the outcome of the war and lost objectivity years ago.

"no chance" as in "hardly any chance at all"

Containing the war (geographically and no-nukes) is hugely important and is the main reason (up to this year) that we haven't helped Ukraine more than we have (by giving them our best stuff).
bearister
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"Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, the US and the American people will remain safe."

Sure, until AI decides to eliminate mankind, but not until they undertake millions of home invasions globally to conduct 24/7 extraterrestrial like anal probes pursuant to the details input by Elon Musk from every alien spaceship abduction account he could find.
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Cal88
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For the folks in the 510, elimination from AI would be more benign than the yoke of Pamela Price.
bearister
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She gone….last person in the room to know it, however.
Judge denies DA motion to reduce charges in murder case


https://www.berkeleyscanner.com/2024/03/27/courts/family-protests-reduced-charges-double-homicide-devin-williams/
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movielover
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Unit2Sucks said:

Big C said:


Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. ...


Movielover said: More firehose of falsehoods

... The US has zero reason to use nukes on Russia given that it presents no military threat to the US whatsoever.

Reply: Russia has eventually obliterated the Ukrainian military with an unheard of, completely lopsided kill ratio, and depleted NATO and the whole EU of ammunitions and military gear. A top UK military commander just said the UK could only hold off Russia's military for 2 months. Egos, and no statesmen present. No "offramp".

The extent of our involvement in defense of Ukraine has primarily been sending over excess military equipment (most of it obsolete for decades) as well as financial and intelligence assistance, and of course sanctions.

Reply: you skipped 12 secret CIA bases, a political coup, Darth Nuland, NATO and our Special Forces on the ground. Strategizing, funding, intell, sanctions, training.

You'd at least think we'd send over military medical personnel for assistance and training. Ukraine's lack of battlefield medical response is allegedly appalling and catastrophic.


Anyone who is pretending like Putin is a threat to win any war in which NATO is an actual party is either a useful idiot or just an idiot.

NATO / USA was preparing Ukraine for this for a decade, the goal was to "weaken Russia" (Lloyd Austin and others). They failed. NATO is in this knee deep training, supplying, funding, strategizing, undermining (Russia), sanctioning, & provoking. NATO and the EU are now largely impotent with young men wiped out, out of 155 shells and Patriot missiles, while Russia has expanded its already best-in-class manufacturing. The US / NATO prepared for a hi-tech war, and Putin's generals gave them a WWI meat grinder. US / NATO still can't produce a fraction of Russias capacity, and why we desperately sent them cluster munitions.

Putin has his hands full against an poorly equipped Ukraine. What would he do if the US and other western powers decided to actually show up?

Reply: Show up with what? Pea shooters? Ukraine fought valiantly, but once the Bear geared up, added low-cost drones and glide bombs, and 800,000 new troops, forget it. France, Germany, and the UK don't have much. Europe has under spent and not prepared for decades. Colonel Douglass McGregor: "You don't create a military on the fly."

We have a comical amount of excess military equipment because that's how our military operates....

Where exactly are these excess 155 shells and badly needed Patriot batterys?

We could easily send a few thousand Abrams over to Ukraine if we made it a priority but instead sent only 31.

False. We don't want them - and China & Iran - to reverse engineer our depleted uranium tank armor, hence the new production of Abrams tanks w/o that armor.

We need to stop with symbolic gestures and get them what they need to actually defend themselves.

It's over, accept it.

... when Russia can barely handle it's much smaller much more poorly equipped neighbor with whom it shares a 1,000 mile plus long border.

The one we've prepared for 10 years.

Lets Go Brandon 12
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Big C said:

Palestinian Chicken said:

Big C said:


Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. I doubt even Putin would. Even Trump has never done-or-said anything to indicate that he would (in fact, from a "Trump Doctrine" standpoint, it's the last thing he would do... only thing is he's crazy, so ya never know... if the courts seize Mar-a-Lago, all bets are off).

Nukes: not gonna happen here. Remember M.A.D.? (mutually assured destruction... as Cal88 alluded to)

Even the most "war hawk", neo-cons in the US government don't want this to escalate beyond Russia-Ukraine. In their mind, we have a great thing going here as it is: no US boots on ground... ramp-up of the defense industry... get to see what Russia can and cannot do... modernize plans for the next war. It's "perfect" just like it is!
Once you engage in this game of chicken that the U.S. and Russia have started in Ukraine, there's no way of knowing what either side might do when faced with losing. Anyone saying there's no chance of this escalating into the use of nuclear weapons is hopelessly naive or is too invested in the outcome of the war and lost objectivity years ago.

"no chance" as in "hardly any chance at all"

Containing the war (geographically and no-nukes) is hugely important and is the main reason (up to this year) that we haven't helped Ukraine more than we have (by giving them our best stuff).
And in case I didn't drive that point home hard enough.


Cal88
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movielover said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Big C said:


Look folks, Biden ain't gonna toss the first nuke here. NATO sure as heck isn't gonna either. ...


Movielover said: More firehose of falsehoods

... The US has zero reason to use nukes on Russia given that it presents no military threat to the US whatsoever.

Reply: Russia has eventually obliterated the Ukrainian military with an unheard of, completely lopsided kill ratio, and depleted NATO and the whole EU of ammunitions and military gear. A top UK military commander just said the UK could only hold off Russia's military for 2 months. Egos, and no statesmen present. No "offramp".

The extent of our involvement in defense of Ukraine has primarily been sending over excess military equipment (most of it obsolete for decades) as well as financial and intelligence assistance, and of course sanctions.

Reply: you skipped 12 secret CIA bases, a political coup, Darth Nuland, NATO and our Special Forces on the ground. Strategizing, funding, intell, sanctions, training.

You'd at least think we'd send over military medical personnel for assistance and training. Ukraine's lack of battlefield medical response is allegedly appalling and catastrophic.


Anyone who is pretending like Putin is a threat to win any war in which NATO is an actual party is either a useful idiot or just an idiot.

NATO / USA was preparing Ukraine for this for a decade, the goal was to "weaken Russia" (Lloyd Austin and others). They failed. NATO is in this knee deep training, supplying, funding, strategizing, undermining (Russia), sanctioning, & provoking. NATO and the EU are now largely impotent with young men wiped out, out of 155 shells and Patriot missiles, while Russia has expanded its already best-in-class manufacturing. The US / NATO prepared for a hi-tech war, and Putin's generals gave them a WWI meat grinder. US / NATO still can't produce a fraction of Russias capacity, and why we desperately sent them cluster munitions.

Putin has his hands full against an poorly equipped Ukraine. What would he do if the US and other western powers decided to actually show up?

Reply: Show up with what? Pea shooters? Ukraine fought valiantly, but once the Bear geared up, added low-cost drones and glide bombs, and 800,000 new troops, forget it. France, Germany, and the UK don't have much. Europe has under spent and not prepared for decades. Colonel Douglass McGregor: "You don't create a military on the fly."

We have a comical amount of excess military equipment because that's how our military operates....

Where exactly are these excess 155 shells and badly needed Patriot batterys?

We could easily send a few thousand Abrams over to Ukraine if we made it a priority but instead sent only 31.

False. We don't want them - and China & Iran - to reverse engineer our depleted uranium tank armor, hence the new production of Abrams tanks w/o that armor.

We need to stop with symbolic gestures and get them what they need to actually defend themselves.

It's over, accept it.

... when Russia can barely handle it's much smaller much more poorly equipped neighbor with whom it shares a 1,000 mile plus long border.

The one we've prepared for 10 years.




Not much more to add to ML's realistic commentaries, U2S's arguments are not rooted in reality and are easy to dismantle.



Posting an image of Arizona weapons storage facilities with Korea/Vietnam War-era tanks to sell the idea that Ukraine is not getting billion dollar Patriot batteries, HIMARS systems or Javelin missiles that will take a decade to replenish - classic U2S.



It takes 5 to 7 minutes to activate a Patriot system, and 2 minutes for a Zircon hypersonic missile traveling at Mach 9 (2 miles per second) to reach any point in Ukraine from Russia.
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