The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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movielover
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Released one hour ago.

Russia KNOCKED OUT Ukraine from Kostiantynivka.

The Russian 3rd and 8th Combined Arms Armies finalized the capture of the fortress city of Kostiantynivka. How did they do it and what does this mean?

dajo9
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Ukraine's General Staff says Putin is lying about Kostiantynivka. I don't know the truth but I know I don't trust Putin or Russia.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/putins-claims-occupation-kostiantynivka-false-065100271.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAYPDy6VZ7VKqejaXsfVDTk2iVqfUAttTc2fAPOzNDl5nzk2wRnMKggH-ZPsUltL6HkAU70cumlVgIfRhJ4vhspe7bZsAhNlR_NqMFWmM4W8uhf5vBj5x9VZpu6ijZfpn4_76YwsAg3R43skHXPKmLiZ0p6r4TLuJuYb1OEcD1Ji
movielover
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I trust History Legends, and math. Russia has numbers in manpower, artillery, air power, etc.
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

Ukraine's General Staff says Putin is lying about Kostiantynivka. I don't know the truth but I know I don't trust Putin or Russia.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/putins-claims-occupation-kostiantynivka-false-065100271.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAYPDy6VZ7VKqejaXsfVDTk2iVqfUAttTc2fAPOzNDl5nzk2wRnMKggH-ZPsUltL6HkAU70cumlVgIfRhJ4vhspe7bZsAhNlR_NqMFWmM4W8uhf5vBj5x9VZpu6ijZfpn4_76YwsAg3R43skHXPKmLiZ0p6r4TLuJuYb1OEcD1Ji


History Legends has proven to be more trustworthy and objective than Ukrainian military sources. He relies on real time reports from OSINT channels.

This is the latest pro-NATO ISW map, it shows that Kostiantynivka is encircled. They usually report the truth on their maps but with a few weeks delay, look for them to confirm the fall of Kostiantynivka by the end of the month or so.






" To my great regret, the Russian army has advanced on the approaches to Kostiantynivka and in the Sloviansk direction, according to Deep State maps. In the last 1.5 months, Deep State maps have been lagging behind real events. Many Ukrainian experts also report Russian advances in Dnipropetrovsk region. This is simply terrible. We're losing territory while every mainstream media cheers that "Ukraine is winning."

Mendel is a pro-Ukrainian pundit, formerly very close to Zelensky, who has recently become mor critical of the Zelensky government, she has recently acknowledged Russian advances in that region.

Her position is now similar to mine:



"The Russian-Ukrainian war is bloody and senseless by this point, massive killing and destruction are wrought over nothing.

If it's about Ukraine not entering NATO than this question has been taken off the table by now.

If it's about protecting democracy, than our democracy is in such a fragile situation that barely differs from any other autocratic regime: very limited freedom of speech, weakened institutions, violations of basic constitutional rights, political persecution, and people's life matter as little as in any autocracy.

If the war is to remove Zelenskyy from power than he has been it's main beneficiary: on the verge of losing power back in 2021, the war allowed him to thrive, earning money on all aspects of this war, gaining almost unlimited power inside the country, all the while basking in international fame.

If it's about regaining the territories of Ukraine back from Russian conquest, than Ukraine is just losing more territories, rather than recapturing them.

This war has no reason or justification to continue except of benefiting some small groups. Ukraine is on the verge of extinction because of it."
#StopWar

movielover
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What true effects are drones having? Knocking some refineries offline, grabbing headlines, killing some civilians. They have changed warfare dramatically. Russia reportedly using drone swarms that also use AI to adjust in flight and during attacks. Meanwhile, the Russian juggernaut continues. Putin reportedly has shifted to a war footing, and may be preparing to take Odessa and / or Kiev while also preparing for war w Europe. Ritter suggests Russia is producing 1,000 drones per day, has a stockpile of 100,000 ready for the EU.
movielover
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Aunburdened
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George Washington famously warned against foreign entanglements, but some folks don't know their history very well

Cal88
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Protests starting to rise against Zelensky in Kiev.

Aunburdened
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Good article in the American Conservative outlines how Trump has bought into the magical thinking that the tide is turning in this pointless war.



Notable excerpts:

Quote:

Several such attempts by the U.S.-led West throughout the 12 years of the RussiaUkraine war invariably ended in fiascos that have come to define the trajectory of this conflict. The crude attempt to reframe the 20142015 Minsk agreements in Ukraine's favor prompted Russia's all-out invasion in February 2022. Ditching the Istanbul framework agreement in the spring of the same year resulted in an epic catastrophe for Ukrainians. Even if the war ended soon, Ukraine would need decades to recover in demographic and infrastructural terms. But just as on every previous occasion, the pro-war lobby is doing its utmost to promote the narrative that this time things are going to be different.


Quote:

The problem is that Russian resilience is just beginning to be tested. Meanwhile, Ukraine's society and economy have worn down to a dangerous level that Russia, if the war of attrition continues, would take decades to reach. There is virtually no way for Ukraine and the West to make Russia so unlivable that Putin would end the invasion before Ukraine itself becomes completely lifeless. This equation has been obvious from the war's outset, although somehow not to its ardent cheerleaders.

What Russia is doing now in response to Ukrainian strikes is inching towards total war, with Russian drones and missiles methodically knocking out petrol stations in addition to energy infrastructure. Moscow has also begun to target food-processing facilities, agricultural equipment, and trucks on highways. Ukrainians are bracing for another horrific winter in unheated apartments, while Russians are merely at the stage of making an extra effort to fuel their cars. The contrast couldn't be starker.

Finally, Russians largely do buy into the Kremlin's narrative about the war. They see it as existential and themselves as underdogs fighting for their sovereignty against the enormous Western military and economic machine. What Trump has been doing to Iran over the last several months has bolstered their impression of malign Western intentions (and confirmed for them the importance of having a huge nuclear arsenal).

Quote:

It is hard to predict how long Trump will remain a Russia hawk, but it is safe to say that another historical chance to settle the conflict has been squandered, and the old pattern that has defined the trajectory of this conflict for years is back: Every time peace becomes a realistic prospect, the pro-war lobby derails it by selling the illusion that it will take just few hundred billion more dollars and the next technological magic wand to vanquish Putin's war machine.

The result has been the same every timehair-raising escalation, enormous and partially irrecoverable losses for Ukraine in lives, territory, infrastructure, and Russia pressing even harder than before. Every time Ukraine emerges from an escalatory period, it faces far more disastrous terms of peace than it could previously have achieved. There is no indication this time will be different.



Aunburdened
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FAFO, military version

Cal88
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In the first Iran war, the US and Israel were able to jam a lot of GPA-guided Iranian missiles. They have since switched to the Chinese equivalent of GPS, the BeiDou system, which is very accurate and difficult to spoof. China is definitely cooperating with Iran, providing them not only access to BeiDou but also guidance systems and rare earth for their missiles and drones.
movielover
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Iran claims we broke the MOU, and visa versa.
dajo9
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The pro Ukraine propagandists are having a good time. Important things in Russia are getting blown up like oil refineries and Wildberries, a major online retailer, and possibly a drone component distributor, and an unofficial supplier for Russian soldiers. I'm sure Russia will win this war they started any day now.

sycasey
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This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.

Cal88
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sycasey said:

This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.




Does the fact that you're on the same side as Laura Loomer on this issue not give you pause?
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.




Does the fact that you're on the same side as Laura Loomer on this issue not give you pause?

She came to my position, not me to hers. And it's not exactly the same as mine, for example I don't agree with this last part of her post:

"Air sirens could very well be the future of America if we don't start demanding our lawmakers crack down on communism and multipolarity.

We won't have Trump forever and the axis of evil is moving fast."


I don't think we really need to worry about cracking down on multipolarity, just opposing wars of conquest. I also don't think Trump is going to do a damn thing about any of that. If anything, his war in Iran makes it worse.

But I do like how she had her eyes opened to how much of the pro-Russia crap you see on social media is purely fabricated propaganda from them.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.




Does the fact that you're on the same side as Laura Loomer on this issue not give you pause?

She came to my position, not me to hers. And it's not exactly the same as mine, for example I don't agree with this last part of her post:

"Air sirens could very well be the future of America if we don't start demanding our lawmakers crack down on communism and multipolarity.

We won't have Trump forever and the axis of evil is moving fast."


I don't think we really need to worry about cracking down on multipolarity, just opposing wars of conquest. I also don't think Trump is going to do a damn thing about any of that. If anything, his war in Iran makes it worse.

But I do like how she had her eyes opened to how much of the pro-Russia crap you see on social media is purely fabricated propaganda from them.


FYI Loomer is an Israel First neocon, she appears to have become staunchly anti-Russian because Russia is backing Iran in their war against Israel.


sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.




Does the fact that you're on the same side as Laura Loomer on this issue not give you pause?

She came to my position, not me to hers. And it's not exactly the same as mine, for example I don't agree with this last part of her post:

"Air sirens could very well be the future of America if we don't start demanding our lawmakers crack down on communism and multipolarity.

We won't have Trump forever and the axis of evil is moving fast."


I don't think we really need to worry about cracking down on multipolarity, just opposing wars of conquest. I also don't think Trump is going to do a damn thing about any of that. If anything, his war in Iran makes it worse.

But I do like how she had her eyes opened to how much of the pro-Russia crap you see on social media is purely fabricated propaganda from them.


FYI Loomer is an Israel First neocon, she appears to have become staunchly anti-Russian because Russia is backing Iran in their war against Israel.

Yes, as with most people, agreeing with her on one thing does not mean I have to agree with her on everything.
dajo9
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Russia is now importing gasoline from India because Ukraine has been so effective in knocking out Russian refiners. So the flow is now crude oil is exported to India, India refines it into gasoline, then Russia imports the gasoline. More strategic genius from Putin.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-more-gasoline-india-after-ukraine-attacks-refineries-sources-say-2026-07-15/
sycasey
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Okay, now I think this and the Loomer turn means that Putin is actually running out of money.

dajo9
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Have all the Russian propagandists lost funding and gone quiet?
oski003
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dajo9 said:

Have all the Russian propagandists lost funding and gone quiet?


No.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Okay, now I think this and the Loomer turn means that Putin is actually running out of money.




Woke right elements like Loomer and Pool are pro-Israeli, part of the reason these mediocre influencers have been pushed by the algorithms. Israel has recently gone from a lukewarm, behind the scenes support for Ukraine to full on backing, mostly due to Russia backing Iran. This explains why Loomer et al have recently come out in support of Zelensky.

As far as the frontlines are concerned, Ukraine is still on its heels, though it has recently been able to score drone hits on Russian assets, notably refineries. Total production of refined products in Russia has decreased by 9%-10% as a result of these hits. Overall the Ukrainian hit rate has been pretty low because the Russians are good at AA, see gfor instance the Pantsir short range system in action below against a drone in its final, fast diving stage:



In the main news about the war, the Russians are still advancing, some places faster than others depending on the Ukrainian staffing of frontlines and shortages thereof:



Aunburdened
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Ukraine attacking Iranian ships to try to get the US to care more about their war

Free Wags.
Also Free Dwight Way and ProBonoBear415.
Aunburdened
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Could not be more well-said

Free Wags.
Also Free Dwight Way and ProBonoBear415.
sycasey
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Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.


NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said NATO started the war in 2014.



NATO then proceeded to scuttle 3 early settlements to this war, Minsk I and II, and the Istanbul Agreement, which would have preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe and saved the lives of over a million (mostly Ukrainian) men.

Barring an agreement similar to the Istanbul one, the Russians are going to kill another million Ukrainian soldiers and annex all the majority Russophone parts of Ukraine. This would probably take another 2-3 years.

What's your solution to this war, fight it out to the last Ukrainian, AKA the Lindsay Graham Plan?
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.


NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said NATO started the war in 2014.



NATO then proceeded to scuttle 3 early settlements to this war, Minsk I and II, and the Istanbul Agreement, which would have preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe and saved the lives of over a million (mostly Ukrainian) men.

Barring an agreement similar to the Istanbul one, the Russians are going to kill another million Ukrainian soldiers and annex all the majority Russophone parts of Ukraine. This would probably take another 2-3 years.

What's your solution to this war, fight it out to the last Ukrainian, AKA the Lindsay Graham Plan?

I'm not going to keep answering your same questions over and over. I stated my opinion.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.


NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said NATO started the war in 2014.



NATO then proceeded to scuttle 3 early settlements to this war, Minsk I and II, and the Istanbul Agreement, which would have preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe and saved the lives of over a million (mostly Ukrainian) men.

Barring an agreement similar to the Istanbul one, the Russians are going to kill another million Ukrainian soldiers and annex all the majority Russophone parts of Ukraine. This would probably take another 2-3 years.

What's your solution to this war, fight it out to the last Ukrainian, AKA the Lindsay Graham Plan?

I'm not going to keep answering your same questions over and over. I stated my opinion.


I'm not sure if you've ever answered that question.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.


NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said NATO started the war in 2014.



NATO then proceeded to scuttle 3 early settlements to this war, Minsk I and II, and the Istanbul Agreement, which would have preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe and saved the lives of over a million (mostly Ukrainian) men.

Barring an agreement similar to the Istanbul one, the Russians are going to kill another million Ukrainian soldiers and annex all the majority Russophone parts of Ukraine. This would probably take another 2-3 years.

What's your solution to this war, fight it out to the last Ukrainian, AKA the Lindsay Graham Plan?

I'm not going to keep answering your same questions over and over. I stated my opinion.


I'm not sure if you've ever answered that question.

I'm fine with us continuing to provide a modest amount of military aid (as a percentage of our budget) to Ukraine as long as they want the help.
dajo9
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Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said




Yes, MAGA is predictable like that
cbbass1
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movielover said:

Scott Ritter claims Russia is producing 1,000 drones per day, only using 600. Claims Russia has 100,000-drone stockpile in reserve. He says he's been in Russia 2-3 times the past couple of years.

History Legends suggests Ukraine may be preparing for an amphibious assault on Crimea.


LOL!

With whose troops? And whose weapons??

"History Legends" is delusional.

The drone attacks into Russia are to support the "victory is just around the corner" idiocy. Look at the timing.

The NDAA is going thru Congress, and the UniParty is doing its customary "threat amplification" to get Congress to approve more. That's why Pete Hegseth is asking for more, in a Supplemental Appropriation (between lies).

Meanwhile, the ground war in Ukraine is still going on, and Ukraine is still getting its a-- kicked.
cbbass1
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sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.


The U.S. did start the war in Ukraine.

A few days after 9/11, I realized that I needed a much better & deeper understanding of U.S. foreign policy. So I read Zbigniew Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard - American Primacy and its GeoStrategic Imperative (1997).

Here's the book -- free to all-- in PDF format:
https://dn790007.ca.archive.org/0/items/ZbigniewBrzezinskiTheGrandChessboard/Zbigniew%20Brzezinski%20-%20The%20Grand%20Chessboard.pdf


Please bear in mind that although this book was published in 1997, the strategic thinking that Brzezinski describes was the predominant "wisdom" for foreign policy in Washington DC since the collapse of the Soviet Union. While Americans were excitedly discussing a potential "Peace Dividend", Brzezinski & his fellow NeoConservatives were planning for the U.S. to dominate the world, militarily, economically, and culturally. This became known in the "Defense" Department as "Full-Spectrum Dominance."

In February, 1992, Deputy Sec Def Paul Wolfowitz laid out his "Wolfowitz Doctrine" in the form of a Defense Planning Guide document. In the first version, he claimed that the first objective of U.S. policy should be "to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival."

With an eye toward "deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role," the United States would maintain unquestioned military superiority and, if necessary, employ force unilaterally. As window dressing, allies might be nice, but the United States no longer considered them necessary.
Defense Planning Guide - 1992 - written by Paul Wolfowitz & Scooter Libby

On page 40, Brzezinski introduces the concept of "Geopolitical Pivots" -- those nations that are critical in shaping the balance of power in the world. Ukraine is one of those pivots, along with Iran & Turkiye.

The NeoConservative plan, since the early 1990s, was to expand NATO and the EU to include Ukraine, and peel Ukraine away from the Russian orbit -- because without Ukraine, Russia could not be a European power.

Quote:

Somewhere between 2005 and 2010, Ukraine, especially if in the meantime the country has made significant progress in its domestic reforms and has succeeded in becoming more evidently identified as a Central European country, should become ready for serious negotiations with both the EU and NATO.
-- Zbigniew Brzezinski in The Grand Chessboard, p.84

Also remember that U.S. Sec of State James Baker had promised to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would NOT expand Eastward -- "Not one inch" -- in exchange for Gorbachev giving the OK for the reunification of Germany. This critical promise to Gorbachev was dismissed & ignored by the U.S. as we proceeded with a long-term plan to expand NATO Eastward to Ukraine & Georgia -- right up to Russia's doorstep.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

The U.S., through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED**), started Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" in 2004 to start the regime change process. The culmination was in Feb 2014, with the U.S.-engineered Maidan Coup.

Here, again, is Prof. John Mearsheimer's June, 2015 lecture at the University of Chicago, where he asserts that the George W. Bush administration started the war with the Russian Federation in April, 2008, when the U.S. pledged to bring both Ukraine and Georgia -- both on Russia's doorstep -- into NATO.
Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer

The entire Russian foreign policy establishment is intimately familiar with all of these strategic writings & plans from the NeoConservatives, going back decades. They know that the Americans have been planning for their strategic defeat and dismemberment since the end of WW2.

** - NED is an NGO started by CIA Director William Casey to start & promote popular movements in countries targeted for "regime change" operations.
cbbass1
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sycasey said:

This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.

hxxps://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2079598033130414320


Earlier in July, Scott Ritter returned from his trip to Russia, the Donbass, and Crimea. He reports on the status of the Ukraine War.

Scott Ritter : Russia's Ukraine Strategy
sycasey
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cbbass1 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

Could not be more well-said



This would be relevant here if the US had actually started the war in Ukraine.


The U.S. did start the war in Ukraine.


No.
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