The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

2,191,415 Views | 13726 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by sycasey
movielover
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Released one hour ago.

Russia KNOCKED OUT Ukraine from Kostiantynivka.

The Russian 3rd and 8th Combined Arms Armies finalized the capture of the fortress city of Kostiantynivka. How did they do it and what does this mean?

dajo9
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Ukraine's General Staff says Putin is lying about Kostiantynivka. I don't know the truth but I know I don't trust Putin or Russia.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/putins-claims-occupation-kostiantynivka-false-065100271.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAYPDy6VZ7VKqejaXsfVDTk2iVqfUAttTc2fAPOzNDl5nzk2wRnMKggH-ZPsUltL6HkAU70cumlVgIfRhJ4vhspe7bZsAhNlR_NqMFWmM4W8uhf5vBj5x9VZpu6ijZfpn4_76YwsAg3R43skHXPKmLiZ0p6r4TLuJuYb1OEcD1Ji
movielover
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I trust History Legends, and math. Russia has numbers in manpower, artillery, air power, etc.
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

Ukraine's General Staff says Putin is lying about Kostiantynivka. I don't know the truth but I know I don't trust Putin or Russia.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/putins-claims-occupation-kostiantynivka-false-065100271.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAYPDy6VZ7VKqejaXsfVDTk2iVqfUAttTc2fAPOzNDl5nzk2wRnMKggH-ZPsUltL6HkAU70cumlVgIfRhJ4vhspe7bZsAhNlR_NqMFWmM4W8uhf5vBj5x9VZpu6ijZfpn4_76YwsAg3R43skHXPKmLiZ0p6r4TLuJuYb1OEcD1Ji


History Legends has proven to be more trustworthy and objective than Ukrainian military sources. He relies on real time reports from OSINT channels.

This is the latest pro-NATO ISW map, it shows that Kostiantynivka is encircled. They usually report the truth on their maps but with a few weeks delay, look for them to confirm the fall of Kostiantynivka by the end of the month or so.






" To my great regret, the Russian army has advanced on the approaches to Kostiantynivka and in the Sloviansk direction, according to Deep State maps. In the last 1.5 months, Deep State maps have been lagging behind real events. Many Ukrainian experts also report Russian advances in Dnipropetrovsk region. This is simply terrible. We're losing territory while every mainstream media cheers that "Ukraine is winning."

Mendel is a pro-Ukrainian pundit, formerly very close to Zelensky, who has recently become mor critical of the Zelensky government, she has recently acknowledged Russian advances in that region.

Her position is now similar to mine:



"The Russian-Ukrainian war is bloody and senseless by this point, massive killing and destruction are wrought over nothing.

If it's about Ukraine not entering NATO than this question has been taken off the table by now.

If it's about protecting democracy, than our democracy is in such a fragile situation that barely differs from any other autocratic regime: very limited freedom of speech, weakened institutions, violations of basic constitutional rights, political persecution, and people's life matter as little as in any autocracy.

If the war is to remove Zelenskyy from power than he has been it's main beneficiary: on the verge of losing power back in 2021, the war allowed him to thrive, earning money on all aspects of this war, gaining almost unlimited power inside the country, all the while basking in international fame.

If it's about regaining the territories of Ukraine back from Russian conquest, than Ukraine is just losing more territories, rather than recapturing them.

This war has no reason or justification to continue except of benefiting some small groups. Ukraine is on the verge of extinction because of it."
#StopWar

movielover
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What true effects are drones having? Knocking some refineries offline, grabbing headlines, killing some civilians. They have changed warfare dramatically. Russia reportedly using drone swarms that also use AI to adjust in flight and during attacks. Meanwhile, the Russian juggernaut continues. Putin reportedly has shifted to a war footing, and may be preparing to take Odessa and / or Kiev while also preparing for war w Europe. Ritter suggests Russia is producing 1,000 drones per day, has a stockpile of 100,000 ready for the EU.
movielover
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Aunburdened
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George Washington famously warned against foreign entanglements, but some folks don't know their history very well

Cal88
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Protests starting to rise against Zelensky in Kiev.

Aunburdened
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Good article in the American Conservative outlines how Trump has bought into the magical thinking that the tide is turning in this pointless war.



Notable excerpts:

Quote:

Several such attempts by the U.S.-led West throughout the 12 years of the RussiaUkraine war invariably ended in fiascos that have come to define the trajectory of this conflict. The crude attempt to reframe the 20142015 Minsk agreements in Ukraine's favor prompted Russia's all-out invasion in February 2022. Ditching the Istanbul framework agreement in the spring of the same year resulted in an epic catastrophe for Ukrainians. Even if the war ended soon, Ukraine would need decades to recover in demographic and infrastructural terms. But just as on every previous occasion, the pro-war lobby is doing its utmost to promote the narrative that this time things are going to be different.


Quote:

The problem is that Russian resilience is just beginning to be tested. Meanwhile, Ukraine's society and economy have worn down to a dangerous level that Russia, if the war of attrition continues, would take decades to reach. There is virtually no way for Ukraine and the West to make Russia so unlivable that Putin would end the invasion before Ukraine itself becomes completely lifeless. This equation has been obvious from the war's outset, although somehow not to its ardent cheerleaders.

What Russia is doing now in response to Ukrainian strikes is inching towards total war, with Russian drones and missiles methodically knocking out petrol stations in addition to energy infrastructure. Moscow has also begun to target food-processing facilities, agricultural equipment, and trucks on highways. Ukrainians are bracing for another horrific winter in unheated apartments, while Russians are merely at the stage of making an extra effort to fuel their cars. The contrast couldn't be starker.

Finally, Russians largely do buy into the Kremlin's narrative about the war. They see it as existential and themselves as underdogs fighting for their sovereignty against the enormous Western military and economic machine. What Trump has been doing to Iran over the last several months has bolstered their impression of malign Western intentions (and confirmed for them the importance of having a huge nuclear arsenal).

Quote:

It is hard to predict how long Trump will remain a Russia hawk, but it is safe to say that another historical chance to settle the conflict has been squandered, and the old pattern that has defined the trajectory of this conflict for years is back: Every time peace becomes a realistic prospect, the pro-war lobby derails it by selling the illusion that it will take just few hundred billion more dollars and the next technological magic wand to vanquish Putin's war machine.

The result has been the same every timehair-raising escalation, enormous and partially irrecoverable losses for Ukraine in lives, territory, infrastructure, and Russia pressing even harder than before. Every time Ukraine emerges from an escalatory period, it faces far more disastrous terms of peace than it could previously have achieved. There is no indication this time will be different.



Aunburdened
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FAFO, military version

Cal88
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In the first Iran war, the US and Israel were able to jam a lot of GPA-guided Iranian missiles. They have since switched to the Chinese equivalent of GPS, the BeiDou system, which is very accurate and difficult to spoof. China is definitely cooperating with Iran, providing them not only access to BeiDou but also guidance systems and rare earth for their missiles and drones.
movielover
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Iran claims we broke the MOU, and visa versa.
dajo9
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The pro Ukraine propagandists are having a good time. Important things in Russia are getting blown up like oil refineries and Wildberries, a major online retailer, and possibly a drone component distributor, and an unofficial supplier for Russian soldiers. I'm sure Russia will win this war they started any day now.

sycasey
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This pro-Ukraine propagandist (formerly pro-Russia propagandist) has been especially strident about it.

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