Your vocabulary is limited to sound bites, catch phrases, and faux outrage. The poster boy for the modern GOP.

Liars, hypocrites, and morons.

China supposedly really overplayed the one child policy and some people claim will lose 2/3 of their population in a few decades.

Big C said:

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dajo9 said:

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concordtom said:

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Article discusses the impact on Russia population (births) the war is having.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-catastrophic-missing-men-problem-095508987.html

Basically, you need 2.1 kids per woman to remain a stable population size. But with men leaving for war or to flee war the # or births is 1.2, matching a low achieved on 1999 2000.

Putin is not setting Russia up for future success. People are emigrating, not immigrating. And women left behind are left to compete for the dummies who didn't flee already.

The population decline situation is also affecting Ukraine.

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What is bad about negative population growth? I understand that usually the underlying reasons for negative population growth are bad (disease, famine, etc.) but absent a bad underlying reason, I think negative population growth for the world would be a good thing. I think the promotion of population growth comes from the capitalist notion that permanent growth in all things is good. I care more about GDP per capita than I do GDP - but a big company cares more about overall GDP growth because that drives earnings growth.

My wife is doing her part. Only 2 kids.

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100% agreement on this, even the two kids part. The earth cannot sustain more human beings long term, especially with most of them aspiring to live an American-type lifestyle. Maybe scientific advancements will help us, but it'd have to be some things that would seem miraculous.

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It would help if we stopped destroying things and building weapons to destroy things. Imagine if all those resources being spent in Ukraine right now were going to build infrastructure there instead of destroying it

The MIC like's destruction, re-arming, re-engaging, etc.

Goodwin's Law: the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison to Hitler loses whatever debate is in progress. This principle is itself frequently referred to as Godwin's law.

movielover said:

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Goodwin's Law: the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison to Hitler loses whatever debate is in progress. This principle is itself frequently referred to as Godwin's law.

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We aren't in Usenet anymore,Toto.

concordtom said:

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movielover said:

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Goodwin's Law: the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison to Hitler loses whatever debate is in progress. This principle is itself frequently referred to as Godwin's law.

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Concordtom's Law: whoever supports Trump or his policy is booted from the internet forever. The principle is itself frequently referred to as Concordtom's law.

You are excused now.

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You love fascism.

The UniParty hated Perot, the Tea Party, Ben Carson and President Donald Trump. The Democrats and GOP are private clubs, and Mitch loves bargaining from the bottom position.

Classic Trump calling out Ron Sactimonious last night, the new savior of the UniParty.

It's kind of OT, but China is engineering a fairly successful demographic soft landing, their population is going to go from 1.4 billion to around 900 million this century, which is a good number for them. The reason why they can do this is that they still have a large pool of rural population that they can tap to replenish their urban labor pool.

Bringing back this thread to its topic, Russia has successfully addressed its demographic problem, following the collapse in the 1990s. It 's showing some success with their fertility rate rising above 1.8, which puts it at the top of European and industrialized nations.

Cal88 said:

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It's kind of OT, but China is engineering a fairly successful demographic soft landing, their population is going to go from 1.4 billion to around 900 million this century, which is a good number for them. The reason why they can do this is that they still have a large pool of rural population that they can tap to replenish their urban labor pool.

Bringing back this thread to its topic, Russia has successfully addressed its demographic problem, following the collapse in the 1990s. It 's showing some success with their fertility rate rising above 1.8, which puts it at the top of European and industrialized nations.

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An academic claims they overestimated their population by 100 million.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2107685/chinas-real-population-total-100-million-fewer-official-mark

The Russo-Ukrainian war in now entering into a new stage, with Russia having successfully tapped around 350,000 new soldiers, nearly double the size of the army they had a couple of month ago when the Ukrainian army started pushing back successfully and carving out territory at both ends of the Russian crescent.

Russia hasn't suspended its mobilization, they might accumulate even larger numbers to cement their military edge this upcoming winter season, which starts when the ground freezes, in about 4 weeks.

US hawks like Petraeus are working on putting together a NATO force of 30k-60k in anticipation of this Russian buildup, with the goal of leveraging Ukraine's strategic position in Kherson, where they could conceivably cut off Russian forces on the right bank of the Dniepr. However, Russian forces have held up their positions to date on that bank, at least they have so far.

Russia's plans with their 400k-500k army aren't yet known, their choices are to start another campaign of "big arrow" movements like they did at the beginning of the war, or to keep grinding down Ukrainian forces in a slow burn artillery duel where they have a huge edge in munition volume, and now also in drone warfare.

On the civilian front, Ukraine could have another large wave of refugees from the cities into Europe (and N. America) if the Russians keep targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. Cities like Kiev or Dnipro are completely unlivable in winter without electricity, which also powers their running water and sewage systems. We could have as many as 5M refugees flooding into Poland, Germany, UK, France, US, Canada Oz etc this winter.

Big said:

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Asking out of semi-ignorance on this, but aren't a lot of people trying to get the hell out of Russia this year? I don't see that changing any time soon. Not exactly feeling sorry for them right now, but they used to have a strong tradition in literature, the arts, science, etc. Sad, what they are devolving into.

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You have had a lot of military age males skipping town, somewhere around 300k-400k, mostly somewhat affluent big-city types, who could afford to move to Dubai, Turkey, or Greece. For the average Russian though, the economic situation is getting better at home than in that of their potential emigration destination, with the cost of energy and basic staples being much lower at home. Gas is 3 times cheaper in Russia than in Germany, same with food etc.

As far as Russia devolving, people need to realize where they were in the 1990s in order to understand that country's mindset today, and why Putin has been very popular. Back then, Russia was a complete economic and social dystopia, with half the population being driven down from a Soviet lower-middle class status into third-world like abject poverty, where millions of people couldn't feed themselves.

This is an excellent read on Russia in the 90s:
https://paullikoudis.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/the-plunder-of-russia-in-the-1990s/

Russia has been on the ascent this century, they are the richest country in the world in terms of natural resources, and even if they only manage a small fraction of their potential as a country, they are going to be well off. Unlike Ukraine, which started out as the richest, most advanced province in the USSR and was 3 times poorer than Russia before the war even started, Russia has reined in their oligarchs and completely weeded out foreign economic dependence, investing in their infrastructure, going from dependency on imports for their food, to self-sufficiency and outright dominance of the global wheat market.

Russia is not a panacea, but with the rest of Europe on the verge of economic collapse, it's starting to look better, even for the locals.

With all of the talk about the election, forgot to post about Russia's collapse in Kherson. More devastating proof of how weak their military is and how badly Putin needs to be bailed out from his horrible decision to attack Ukraine.

2/ First, this announcement was made by the military and not Putin. Ceding territory should be a political decision; this is more evidence of Putin is clearly setting up the military as the fall guys for the Russian debacle in Ukraine.

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) November 9, 2022

4/ Third, the pace and organization of any Russian withdrawal - given this should be a deliberate activity - will tell us much about the morale and capability of the Russian forces in the south.

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) November 9, 2022

The only question at this point is when Knowlton will extend Putin's contract.

"Ukrainian officers describe these recruits as untrained, clueless and easy to kill. "They are cannon fodder. One of them went to the toilet in the middle of the night using a flashlight. We identified their tank position and destroyed it," said Lt Oleh Zelinskiy, a spokesperson for the 63rd Brigade.

"They try to shoot down our drones with automatic weapons. They don't understand that drones can drop bombs. They are idiots."

Russia kaput!': Ukraine brigade eyes victory as enemy retreats from Kherson


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/09/ukraine-brigade-russia-retreat-kherson-frontline?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Cal88 said:

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Big said:

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Asking out of semi-ignorance on this, but aren't a lot of people trying to get the hell out of Russia this year? I don't see that changing any time soon. Not exactly feeling sorry for them right now, but they used to have a strong tradition in literature, the arts, science, etc. Sad, what they are devolving into.

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You have had a lot of military age males skipping town, somewhere around 300k-400k, mostly somewhat affluent big-city types, who could afford to move to Dubai, Turkey, or Greece. For the average Russian though, the economic situation is getting better at home than in that of their potential emigration destination, with the cost of energy and basic staples being much lower at home. Gas is 3 times cheaper in Russia than in Germany, same with food etc.

As far as Russia devolving, people need to realize where they were in the 1990s in order to understand that country's mindset today, and why Putin has been very popular. Back then, Russia was a complete economic and social dystopia, with half the population being driven down from a Soviet lower-middle class status into third-world like abject poverty, where millions of people couldn't feed themselves.

This is an excellent read on Russia in the 90s:
https://paullikoudis.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/the-plunder-of-russia-in-the-1990s/

Russia has been on the ascent this century, they are the richest country in the world in terms of natural resources, and even if they only manage a small fraction of their potential as a country, they are going to be well off. Unlike Ukraine, which started out as the richest, most advanced province in the USSR and was 3 times poorer than Russia before the war even started, Russia has reined in their oligarchs and completely weeded out foreign economic dependence, investing in their infrastructure, going from dependency on imports for their food, to self-sufficiency and outright dominance of the global wheat market.

Russia is not a panacea, but with the rest of Europe on the verge of economic collapse, it's starting to look better, even for the locals.

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Your penultimate paragraph, hey, I can't refute it with facts off the top of my head, but I feel like it's painting a far rosier picture of Russia than actually exists. Regarding their resources, there are plenty of countries that are rich with resources that aren't using them to pull themselves up. From my vantagepoint, Russia looks like it is turning into what Trump refers to as a "feces-hole" country, rapidly worsening.

dajo9 said:

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Cal88 said:

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Looks like a solid win for Ukraine in the north, and a loss in the south. Overall though, it's been the best week for Ukrainian armed forces since Spring, it's a big boost for their morale.

If you want a solid, neutral and up to date picture of frontline movements, this is a good channel, run by a military geek from Singapore:

https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia

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This is Cal88 tipping us off that Russia is about to be humiliated in the south also

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Has there ever been worse analysis put forward than that which Cal88 has put forward in this thread?

I don't even follow the war that closely. I just know that whatever Cal88 says - the opposite is about to happen.

Big C said:

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Cal88 said:

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Big said:

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Asking out of semi-ignorance on this, but aren't a lot of people trying to get the hell out of Russia this year? I don't see that changing any time soon. Not exactly feeling sorry for them right now, but they used to have a strong tradition in literature, the arts, science, etc. Sad, what they are devolving into.

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You have had a lot of military age males skipping town, somewhere around 300k-400k, mostly somewhat affluent big-city types, who could afford to move to Dubai, Turkey, or Greece. For the average Russian though, the economic situation is getting better at home than in that of their potential emigration destination, with the cost of energy and basic staples being much lower at home. Gas is 3 times cheaper in Russia than in Germany, same with food etc.

As far as Russia devolving, people need to realize where they were in the 1990s in order to understand that country's mindset today, and why Putin has been very popular. Back then, Russia was a complete economic and social dystopia, with half the population being driven down from a Soviet lower-middle class status into third-world like abject poverty, where millions of people couldn't feed themselves.

This is an excellent read on Russia in the 90s:
https://paullikoudis.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/the-plunder-of-russia-in-the-1990s/

Russia has been on the ascent this century, they are the richest country in the world in terms of natural resources, and even if they only manage a small fraction of their potential as a country, they are going to be well off. Unlike Ukraine, which started out as the richest, most advanced province in the USSR and was 3 times poorer than Russia before the war even started, Russia has reined in their oligarchs and completely weeded out foreign economic dependence, investing in their infrastructure, going from dependency on imports for their food, to self-sufficiency and outright dominance of the global wheat market.

Russia is not a panacea, but with the rest of Europe on the verge of economic collapse, it's starting to look better, even for the locals.

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Your penultimate paragraph, hey, I can't refute it with facts off the top of my head, but I feel like it's painting a far rosier picture of Russia than actually exists. Regarding their resources, there are plenty of countries that are rich with resources that aren't using them to pull themselves up. From my vantagepoint, Russia looks like it is turning into what Trump refers to as a "feces-hole" country, rapidly worsening.

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Cal88 has been wrong about everything else that would happen for Russia so far, but hey . . . maybe THIS time he'll be right!

dajo9 said:

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Has there ever been worse analysis put forward than that which Cal88 has put forward in this thread?

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Don't forget his careful statistical analysis with charts and graphs and quotes from "leading experts" is unquestionable and he told us precisely that there were only three possible outcomes that he carefully described and pinned a date to, and I am sure he will stand by those and not asterisk or move goalposts or just act like "that's not what I meant."

I am so confused because at the moment what is happening does not fit into one of his ONLY three possible outcomes. I mean he can't be wrong can he (again) and again) and again)? I mean a person who is wrong this often must learn from their mistakes, question their sources and analysis, and cop to it, right?

Here are some very simplistic questions that pop to mind every time I hear these Putin apologist Republicans or those saying we need to stop supporting Ukraine:

1) What is the purpose of the US military if it is not to assist in a case like this? There is literally ZERO chance the US will be invaded by another country. That means our military might is first and foremost a deterrent and by definition an international peace keeping force. So isn't the assistance to an emerging democracy that is unjustifiably invaded by our number one enemy the exact time to engage our military support? If not in this case, when?

2) How can people who probably would have universally supported our intervention overseas in WWI & WWII for principles of democracy and assistance to allies, and would have also supported (at the time) interventions like Vietnam (stopping the dominos falling to Communism), and exercising military might in containing and countering USSR/Russia at every turn over the decades, how do these people so quickly reverse their "ideology" and principles when one stooge of a president comes along and starts kissing up to authoritarians and praising Putin and dropping pro-Russian speaking points? Is their opinion that frail and that tied to whatever the group is supposed to say today? Have they completely lost the plot in America's position on the world stage, or have they just completely lost the capacity to think for themselves and stand against party doctrine. Or do they just knee-jerk to anything that seems vaguely opposite of what they think the "lib" position is--every thought and action is predicated on not agreeing with Democrats and keeping country divided? If so, how messed up and unAmerican is that?

3) Why would any American want Putin to have a victory (real or perceived) in Ukraine? Isn't the best result in any scenario that Ukraine emerges "victorious" and that America has another great ally in Eastern Europe that strengthens our international influence and reach and that of NATO as well and blocks Russian imperialism? What crazy hoops do you jump through to land at let Putin win? And no, the excuse that you are avoiding escalation does not fly because these people would be all in on let the bombs fly if their media and talking heads were saying that and because it goes without saying that NO ONE is saying let's start WWIII and be idiots about our involvement. What type of American wants Putin to gain in strength?