The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

860,684 Views | 9883 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by sycasey
harebear
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https://twitter.com/pourmecoffee/status/1497965394803539974?t=Ka75pr69ag6kxQXhlet0Tg&s=19
calbearinamaze
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Ukrainians are inspirational.
If you believe in forever
Then life is just a one-night stand
If there's a rock and roll heaven
Well you know they've got a hell of a band
DiabloWags
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EU and Canada banning airspace from Russian flights, including private jets of Oligarchs.

Germany steps up defense spending and will source nat-gas elsewhere.

EU to Ban Russian Planes From Its Airspace, Fund Weapons Purchases

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26
Unit2Sucks
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Starting to look like Putin played himself. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Sends a good message to Xi as well.
oskidunker
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Worse
Go Bears!
DiabloWags
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One problem for the EU is that their Nat-Gas inventory is running about 25% below their 5 year average for this time of year.

Europe was on the receiving end in January of nearly 77% of US LNG cargoes exported.

Spring cant come any sooner!
Goobear
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US needs to pump more oil and gas. Cut Putin off. Europe has +85% of its energy needs from sources other than alternative energy. In the end it again comes down who controls energy and related leverage…
BearForce2
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concordtom said:

This sucks.




War propaganda.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/26/ukrainians-who-told-russian-warship-go-f-k-yourself-may-still-be-alive/
B.A. Bearacus
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Have not read much military analysis of why Putin isn't dominating as fast or as he would like, but here's one guy's take.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-the-russians-are-struggling/
going4roses
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Tell someone you love them and try to have a good day
Unit2Sucks
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I think the Russian struggle had a lot to do with his false belief that Russians would be treated as liberators and not hostile invaders. Maybe Putin thought Ukraine was full of MAGAts or he listened to the wrong people but it's pretty obvious that he badly miscalculated.

At this point it's clear that if Putin's objective was to quickly takeover and peacefully hold Ukraine, he failed. Let's see how long he intends to occupy through hostility and whether his people continue to put up with his megalomaniacal aims.
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

concordtom said:

This sucks.





Tracey has no credibility on this subject.

Big C
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Sebastabear said:

As we watch this unfold I think it's now pretty obvious Putin expected Ukraine to go down almost immediately and is shocked by the fact that he's got the entire citizenry mixing up Molotov cocktails in their bathtubs to toss at his soldiers. He must have legitimately believed the nonsense he's been spewing about Zelensky and his government being a bunch of Neo-Nazi drug addicts and that the average Ukrainian would be delighted to be liberated from them. By the way, how out of it do you have to be to think the neo-Nazi's have a Jewish leader? He seems to be a fan of history (or at least a distorted version of it). He may want a refresher on how the Nazis felt about the children of Abraham.

But it does once again illustrate the problem with autocrats. At some point they insulate themselves to such an extent that they start to believe their own musings are fact. If you kill or drive off everyone who ever tells you "no" then whatever you want to be "yes" becomes the truth in your own mind. Stalin absolutely couldn't imagine a world where everyone didn't love him and so he'd shoot whoever sat down first in the Politburo after his standing ovations, because the only explanation was that they were a traitor. Saddam Hussein absolutely believed his troops would engage America in the mother of all battles and I'm sure was amazed to see them trying to surrender to CNN cameras. And I'm sure Putin's mind is blown by grandmothers grabbing kalashnikovs to fight him rather than throwing flowers at the feet of their "liberators."

Why the ancient Romans had the right idea. During the Republic when the general returned from a campaign and was given a triumphal parade he'd always be accompanied by a slave whose sole job was to repeatedly whisper to him "Memento mori" - or "Remember that you will die." He needed to be kept grounded and humbled even (or maybe especially) at the moment when all of Rome was telling him he was loved.

Which in conclusion I'll say is why Cal fans are the most grounded people in the world. Whenever there's a fleeting moment of good news half our fan base (at least) is always there to whisper "Memento mori . . ."


It is interesting to try and imagine what must've been going on in Putin's mind the last month or so, because to almost all observers, attacking Ukraine didn't seem like it could end well at all for Russia, in any respect. In fact, it's a lose-lose for everybody concerned, so what's the point? Was it hubris? Some sort of insanity?

And then, of course, there's whatever is going on in his mind now and into the immediate future. This is where it gets scary.
DiabloWags
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Wednesday's WSJ presented a fairly interesting observation of his mental state via reporting by Ann Simmons, Noemie Bisserbe, and Bojan Pancevski.

Excerpts can be found in the Peggy Noonan thread I posted today.
sycasey
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going4roses
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The not talked about part

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSpb6ar/

Side note : would this be considered European on European crime to those who are always screaming "what about Chicago "
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bearister
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100,000 turned out in Berlin today to protest Russia's invasion of Ukraine and show solidarity with the Ukrainian people. This is the Strasse des 17. Jun. Photo: Markus Schreiber/AP
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calbearinamaze
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going4roses said:


+1000

IIRC you used to post his podcasts in another thread. He has a way of putting things
that really resonates with me. Please provide info so that I (and others) can access his site
If you believe in forever
Then life is just a one-night stand
If there's a rock and roll heaven
Well you know they've got a hell of a band
Unit2Sucks
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Big C said:

Sebastabear said:

As we watch this unfold I think it's now pretty obvious Putin expected Ukraine to go down almost immediately and is shocked by the fact that he's got the entire citizenry mixing up Molotov cocktails in their bathtubs to toss at his soldiers. He must have legitimately believed the nonsense he's been spewing about Zelensky and his government being a bunch of Neo-Nazi drug addicts and that the average Ukrainian would be delighted to be liberated from them. By the way, how out of it do you have to be to think the neo-Nazi's have a Jewish leader? He seems to be a fan of history (or at least a distorted version of it). He may want a refresher on how the Nazis felt about the children of Abraham.

But it does once again illustrate the problem with autocrats. At some point they insulate themselves to such an extent that they start to believe their own musings are fact. If you kill or drive off everyone who ever tells you "no" then whatever you want to be "yes" becomes the truth in your own mind. Stalin absolutely couldn't imagine a world where everyone didn't love him and so he'd shoot whoever sat down first in the Politburo after his standing ovations, because the only explanation was that they were a traitor. Saddam Hussein absolutely believed his troops would engage America in the mother of all battles and I'm sure was amazed to see them trying to surrender to CNN cameras. And I'm sure Putin's mind is blown by grandmothers grabbing kalashnikovs to fight him rather than throwing flowers at the feet of their "liberators."

Why the ancient Romans had the right idea. During the Republic when the general returned from a campaign and was given a triumphal parade he'd always be accompanied by a slave whose sole job was to repeatedly whisper to him "Memento mori" - or "Remember that you will die." He needed to be kept grounded and humbled even (or maybe especially) at the moment when all of Rome was telling him he was loved.

Which in conclusion I'll say is why Cal fans are the most grounded people in the world. Whenever there's a fleeting moment of good news half our fan base (at least) is always there to whisper "Memento mori . . ."


It is interesting to try and imagine what must've been going on in Putin's mind the last month or so, because to almost all observers, attacking Ukraine didn't seem like it could end well at all for Russia, in any respect. In fact, it's a lose-lose for everybody concerned, so what's the point? Was it hubris? Some sort of insanity?

And then, of course, there's whatever is going on in his mind now and into the immediate future. This is where it gets scary.


When Trump is calling you a genius and complimenting your strategy, you have to wonder where you went wrong.
going4roses
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https://youtube.com/c/BeauoftheFifthColumn

https://twitter.com/BeauTFC



He has a lot of information/viewpoints … he gets it

I learned about the law enforcement SOP. Time Distance and Cover from him ( now I know most law enforcement situations are made worse by their own dereliction of duty)
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going4roses
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bearister
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Blasts in Kyiv and Kharkiv, Zelensky: Ukraine faces 'crucial' 24 hours



https://mol.im/a/10557953

Ukraine's Air Force claims successful drone strikes against Russia



https://mol.im/a/10558543


Two Russian billionaires break ranks to call for peace talks



https://mol.im/a/10558873

Ex-CIA chief says Russia lacks troops to 'subdue' Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/10557869
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Sebastabear
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going4roses said:


I can't believe in the year 2022 I am watching a PSA on what to do in the event of a nearby nuclear strike. Shocking. More shocking of course is that it actually seemed like it had some valuable information. Wouldn't have guessed the thing about hair conditioner for example. I think we really have to revisit this military structure where a madman can wake up one day and decide to wipe out the human race . . . and actually do it.
Anarchistbear
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Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) Tweeted:
#Ukraine - #Russia peace talks proposed by #Zelensky are scheduled to start in a few hours in #Belarus. Important signs would be whether they would actually start. Peace deal is unlikely now, but ceasefire possible.
#UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraina
https://t.co/0mXaeY6q7y

https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1498113441676025863?s=20&t=uEuDmeoFnOs-pr5vISwMWg

https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1498113441676025863?s=20&t=uEuDmeoFnOs-pr5vISwMWg
Unit2Sucks
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Putin doesn't seem like a genius any more does he? This is the type of pravda that Trump loved from Fox News and his other state run media but it's pretty funny to see it so spectacularly fail here.





LOL, looks like Republicans are better pravda than the real thing.

going4roses
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going4roses
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https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSGbTWJ/
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going4roses
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https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSGn2Tc/

A lil comedy
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going4roses
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going4roses
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BearNIt
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Praising Putin's action is akin to praising Hitler after he invaded Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Austria. It's crazy by any measure.
going4roses
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But apparently trump and his zombies …. Smh
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DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:

Starting to look like Putin played himself. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Sends a good message to Xi as well.

And as much as Trump tried to undermine and dismantle NATO, I dont think that NATO has ever been stronger.
bearister
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"With each passing day, it is becoming clearer that Putin's gamble is failing. The Ukrainian people are resisting with all their heart, winning the admiration of the entire world and winning the war. Many dark days lie ahead. The Russians may still conquer the whole of Ukraine. But to win the war, the Russians would have to hold Ukraine, and they can do that only if the Ukrainian people let them. This seems increasingly unlikely to happen.

….. Nations are ultimately built on stories. Each passing day adds more stories that Ukrainians will tell not only in the dark days ahead, but in the decades and generations to come. The president who refused to flee the capital, telling the US that he needs ammunition, not a ride; the soldiers from Snake Island who told a Russian warship to "go f@uck yourself"; the civilians who tried to stop Russian tanks by sitting in their path. This is the stuff nations are built from. In the long run, these stories count for more than tanks."

Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/vladimir-putin-war-russia-ukraine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The Guardian selected these as the best reader comments to the above story:

1. Putin has managed to get Germany to change it's position on defense spending, Switzerland to drop it's neutral stance, Sweden to supply lethal aid, Kazakhstan to refuse to supply troops, pissed off Greece, and even support from China has cooled. I don't think he was expecting any of that;

2. Putin has hugely mis-read the room whilst inadvertantly galvinising NATO and the West. As his inner circle lose wealth and the Russian citizens feel the pinch of sanctions, they will slowly turn on him (some obviosuly have already). Let's just hope they oust him before it gets much worse;

3. Putin is learning the truth of the old adage, "No battle plan survives the first contact with the enemy," and he also seems to have overlooked the principle that people who ignore the lessons of history are bound to repeat it: how can he have forgotten the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, Hitler's disastrous Russian campaign and Napoleon's march on Moscow (and even The Alamo…)?

His blitzkrieg has failed and his troops are bogged down. No doubt he'll succeed ultimately but things are going to get worse for the Russians as the population gets its act together and more arms supplies arrive from the West.

He is in office by the grace of the oligarchs he enriched: he could be toppled very quickly if the Ukraine situation leaves them isolated, cut off from their markets, luxury yachts and estates in the free world.

With the support of increasing numbers of ordinary Russians, an anti-Putin movement could grow exponentially unless the war tips rapidly in his favour.

But I'm not holding my breath." The Guardian
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concordtom
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dimitrig said:

dimitrig said:


This is rapidly devolving into a proxy war between Russia and the West. That is something Russia can't win given the relative sizes of the economies and the lack of appetite for war among the Russian populace.

It is interesting how Russia has approached this invasion completely differently from how the US has done this. The US would typically have days of cruise missile strikes and air raids in order to establish air superiority before sending a single soldier in.

Russia has either chosen not to do that or simply can't.

I do think Russia is trying to hold back some of their military strength in order to avoid civilian casualties which will harm their argument but so far nothing Russia has done should cause NATO any worry about all - at least militarily.

Russia will probably take the kid gloves off soon but then they will be sunk politically and economically. NATO is already openly admitted to sending weapons into Ukraine. They aren't even being coy about it.






It is ironic that is an attempt to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO Putin will end up fighting NATO.

I do understand his position which is that it is better to fight now than later after the ink is dry. It makes a lot of strategic sense. However, I think he really miscalculated how much tolerance the West has for his bull*****

China is right is that he was backed into a corner but he really made a mistake here under pressure.

If he wants to use his nuclear arsenal he will be making an even bigger mistake and that is something I wish Biden would push more on publicly.

Putin wants to threaten nuclear war?

US response should be "Don't even think about it, ****head."

I realize that we have a lot more to lose in that exchange but at some point we need to point out that every loser with a nuke can't be dictating terms to us.


Please re-watch some old nuclear holocaust films.
Thx
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