In Europe today, according to the MSM, people who are no longer able to pay their energy bills = "fringe far-right groups".

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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The SPX was +50 this morning until the market reversed badly on news that the Russians shut off Nord Stream.

SPX: Closed down 42 points at 3,924.26

Russia shuts off Nord Stream gas pipeline indefinitely (theweek.com)

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Who will cave first? The people spending six times what they normally pay for energy or the country waging a war that was raking in $$$$ from that pipeline?

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Russia has been clearing over $3 billion per day this Summer just from its oil and gas exports.

Sanctions are for losers. They don’t work. Through July, Moscow has totaled $97B from oil and gas sales, earning $5.4B more per month than last year's monthly average. Sanctions HAVE NEVER and WILL NEVER WORK. https://t.co/4rhiD78WJ2

— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) September 3, 2022

This means Russia has the funds to replace its entire lost tank fleet with more modern T-90s and T-14 Armatas with just the proceeds from one day's worth of its oil and gas revenues. This kind of puts in perspective the kind of articles posted above claiming it doesn't have the resources to restock its arsenal.

Ironically, sanctions are helping Russia economically, it is now exporting less oil and gas, but at much, much higher prices, so its exports revenues are increasing, while its domestic energy costs have been plummeting as the excess production is routed to the home market, so even energy costs there will head lower (especially given that the largest oil and gas Russian companies are state-owned). Prices in Russia have also been going down due to the strong Rouble:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19698308/russia-uk-prices-sanctions-food/



https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19698308/russia-uk-prices-sanctions-food/

I don't think Europe can sustain its suicidal path, in the UK, France or Italy, the fact that their power bills are exploding is going to put about a third of restaurants out of business (they are also exposed to rises in food/cog prices), one small French restaurant whose annual gas bill was E11,000 last year is now faced with a E65,000 bill for 2023, provided he locks his contract right away, as prices are still rising. That's pretty much his entire profit margin, and then some.

Beyond this, every energy-intensive industry from fertilizers to metals to cement will have to shut its operations down, with severe repercussions on downstream industries like construction, auto and agriculture faced with higher input costs from reduced supply. This is an unprecedented economic catastrophe in the making, far worse than in 1973, on the heels of the economic damage from the covid shutdown.

France gets 70% of its power from Nuclear and the EU has already started replenishing their nat-gas storage 2 months ahead of what it normally does. Germany should be at 85% sometime this month.

Russian Gas Link Set to Restart as Traders Weigh Further Halts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/russia-gas-flows-set-to-resume-on-nord-stream-after-works

DiabloWags said:

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France gets 70% of its power from Nuclear and the EU has already started replenishing their nat-gas storage 2 months ahead of what it normally does. Germany should be at 85% sometime this month.

Russian Gas Link Set to Restart as Traders Weigh Further Halts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/russia-gas-flows-set-to-resume-on-nord-stream-after-works

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Germany's total capacity for gas storage is 23.3 billion cubic meters.

Its annual gas consumption is about 100 billion cubic meters.

So the amount of natural gas Germany has secured to date is 85%*23.3, representing less than 20% of the gas it needs to get through this upcoming season. The reservoirs will be empty by mid-winter, barring some extreme shutdowns. German industry uses up 25% of their national consumption, it will be interesting to see if they will let their retirees and working poor freeze, or shut down their industry.

In any case, German authorities anticipate a very hot winter on their city streets, and will be deploying their military in those streets to keep a lid on the hungry cold masses, rather than the Ukraine border. Octoberfest is going to have an "old school" 20th century feel this coming season...

From 1 October, the German police will be reinforced with army units. Simply put, the military will take to the streets. The German army has received 100 billion euros, it seems that the population is the enemy. The times of Adolf back?#Op1npo #BarbaraBaarsma J6 Committee pic.twitter.com/IHGg9WJkTv

— KingArthur Victory👑⚔️🕎🇳🇱🐄🚜🌳💗 (@Kingart65581165) August 4, 2022

That's the real picture that you're not getting here, either because journalists (even in business media like the WSJ, bloomberg etc) are either incompetent, or bent on massaging or obfuscating the truth.

That's why behind those reassuring headlines, Germans are panicking, or at least the more responsible politicians and their business community leaders. The idiots/hardcore ideologists running their country though, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck and his ingenue sidekick Annalena Baerbock, not so much right now. In fact someone like Annalena is almost relishing the opportunity to slash Germany's carbon footprint that this geopolitical energy crisis is going to cause.

In France and the rest of Europe, electricity use will be rationed, with rolling brownouts, and thermostats will be kept at or below 70F. That won't be enough though, the only way they will get through is by a substantial portion of the economy getting shut down, and that in countries like France with a real unemployment rate close to 10% is not going to go down well.

DiabloWags said:

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Cal said:

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Its annual gas consumption is about 100 billion cubic meters.

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Germany consumed 90.5 billion cubic meters in 2021.
Purchases of Russian NG have fallen dramatically. They've gone from 55% of its its gas supplies to only 9.5% in August. Germany has clearly been finding "other" sources to supply it nat-gas.

Wie es zu schaffen ist (econtribute.de)

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-Germany had covid lockdowns in winter of 21, which contributed to lower gas usage than what they would have normally used. So my 100 bcm estimate is more accurate.

-August gas consumption is less than a third that of midwinter, so meeting that late summer vacation time demand when solar and wind are near their peak is relatively easy with reduced Russian imports, but it's not quite the same challenge they will face this winter.

Excellent summary by Jeffrey Sachs, I agree completely with his assessment there, both on the economic and geopolitical situations:



Sachs was part of the neoliberal shock therapy planners who have destroyed Russia in the 90s, paving the way to the rise of Putin. Unlike his partners from the time, figures like Larry Summers or David Lipton, he has been on a great arc of redemption, recognizing the pain and damage he's caused upon millions not just in Russia but also in Latin America and the rest of the developing world.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/harvard-boys-do-russia/

I am really impressed with how well he's stepped out from the dark side and has now become a strong voice for world peace and sane global economic growth (though I might disagree with him on climate change).

Cal88 said:

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Earlier this week, Ukraine has launched an ill-advised large offensive across the Kherson frontline on the right bank of the Dniepr, throwing a large force of 25,000-30,000 troops, including some of their best troops, and most of the soldiers who trained in England, and a lot of the troops stationed in Odessa, as well as the majority of their remaining tanks (mostly modernized 1980s T72M from Poland). They threw this armed force onto 5-6 points across the area, almost all of which is flat steppe agricultural terrain with no ground cover, against dense artillery positions.



They had very little in terms of air cover, and limited artillery support. The result was predictable, about 3,000 KIA and many more injured. Hospitals in Nikolayev and Odessa are full, and major blood drives are ongoing in that region. One division from Transcarpathia was decimated, and yesterday was declared a day of mourning across that province populated by ethnic Rusyns.

https://hungary.postsen.com/world/54973/A-day-of-mourning-has-been-declared-today-in-Transcarpathia-%E2%80%93-Portfoliohu.html

This debacle kind of summarizes the problem with Ukrainian military strategy, the fact that it is driven by PR rather than pure military strategy, due to the fact that Zelensky and most of his inner circle have a film production background. I don't think the Ukraine military brass was very happy with this big attack. It was likely done as a push from the UK and NATO backers, actually planned and gamed by NATO, in anticipation of a major meeting next week that will decide the next round of Ukraine aid package. They needed some kind of result ahead of that meeting.

The plan was to cut off access to the right bank to Russian reinforcement, then throw the kitchen sink at the ~20,000 Russian troops in the Kherson salient. The problem is that Russians knew the plan ahead, regrouped and reinforced their positions ahead of the attacks. They let in at least one major advance, before closing in on those advanced positions and wiping them out with artillery and air attacks.

How do we know that Russians won? Because you are not hearing much about this major offensive from the Ukraine side, or from the MSM. And the current positions are back to those from the week before, including the deep breach into Andriivka, discussed in this part of the video above:

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This is an update on Kherson that indicates Ukraine is being successful.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-forces-confused-by-ukraine-strikes-headed-for-surrender-general/ar-AA11upu5?cvid=1fb4f8ae376443e2a2158572c12eef89

Russia Won't Restart Nord Stream Pipeline Until Sanctions Are Lifted (yahoo.com)

DiabloWags said:

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Russia Won't Restart Nord Stream Pipeline Until Sanctions Are Lifted (yahoo.com)

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Guess this answers the question of whether or not the sanctions are having an impact.

It was hard to know as Russia stopped reporting all relevant financial and industrial activity information.

golden sloth said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Russia Won't Restart Nord Stream Pipeline Until Sanctions Are Lifted (yahoo.com)

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Guess this answers the question of whether or not the sanctions are having an impact.

It was hard to know as Russia stopped reporting all relevant financial and industrial activity information.

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True.
And just to clarify, the pipeline was only running at 20% of capacity before the Russians shut it down.

golden sloth said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Russia Won't Restart Nord Stream Pipeline Until Sanctions Are Lifted (yahoo.com)

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Guess this answers the question of whether or not the sanctions are having an impact.

It was hard to know as Russia stopped reporting all relevant financial and industrial activity information.

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We know that Russia's oil and gas revenues have gone up substantially this year, one data point from the WSJ estimates its July oil&gas export revenues at $97 billion, an increase of 40% from pre-war levels, and that is with a lower volume produced. Russia is drowning in cash.

Énorme fou rire, excellent pour démarrer la journée😂🤣🤣🤣😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/QKjXZIIjSC

— 📢 🔥A__SAMEDI🔥 (@_samedi_) September 6, 2022

The main problem areas wrt the sanctions are foreign technical know-how, like higher end oil and gas consultants from Total, advanced machine tools from Germany, or niche products in the civil aerospace and automobile industry, though China can plug most of these gaps while Russia develops its domestic expertise.

Otherwise, much like the round of sanctions in 2014, this wider sanctions regimen is likely to spur domestic industry in sectors like auto manufacturing, civil aviation, furniture, textile and consumer goods industries. Russian agriculture and agro-business boomed after the 2014 sanctions, when the EU banned food exports to Russia. This same phenomenon will extend to most other industries, except for items like cellphones where they won't catch up.

The fact that Russia now has the lowest gas prices in the world also makes Russia very competitive in energy intensive products like cement, aluminum, steel, paper, fertilizer or even grains. Russia will be able to sell these products on the world market, which is an indirect way of exporting its gas, one that cannot be easily stopped as most of the demand for these products is outside or Europe or N. America.

oski003 said:

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This is an update on Kherson that indicates Ukraine is being successful.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-forces-confused-by-ukraine-strikes-headed-for-surrender-general/ar-AA11upu5?cvid=1fb4f8ae376443e2a2158572c12eef89

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The Kherson offensive has been a military debacle by Zelensky's army, shaped by political/propaganda motives rather than sound military doctrine, or at the very least, impatience and frustration at the slow and relentless grinding Russian advance. They have sent a large force, some of their best remaining troops and equipment, on open field, flat terrain without ground cover, charging Russian positions without sustained air support.

Ukraine has incurred over 10,000 casualties this week on that offensive, around a quarter of which were KIA. A lot of these losses occurred when troops advanced too far forward, outranging their limited artillery coverage and pressing into areas where the Russians had full air superiority.

New on MoA:
The Ukrainian 'Counteroffensive' Was Destined To Fail - Today It Didhttps://t.co/LEvI4CB9xf pic.twitter.com/w75PR0dkM8

— Moon of Alabama (@MoonofA) September 3, 2022

This was also the first instance in this war where Ukraine mounted a large, widespread offensive on entrenched Russian positions. Even in ideal conditions, which clearly wasn't the case here, you need a decisive numbers advantage to break through and hold territories, something like 3 to 1. In this case, Ukraine barely had superior numbers.

Report from a pro-Ukraine German journalist:

I continue to see claims that the Ukrainians are on the verge of retaking Kherson, and then "liberating" Crimea.

In the map below, the three small blue areas represent the extent of AFU advances in their glorious "counter-offensive". 🤦 pic.twitter.com/ZAUsHQh17L

— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) September 6, 2022

As shown on the map above, the territorial gains were pretty small, and well, well short of a significant advance towards liberating Kherson. This is going to end up making Russia's advance on Nikolayev easier.

The frontline in the Kherson region is now stabilized, Ukraine seems to be directing its resources in the northern sector, on a major attack towards Izyum, which is major strategic city between the Donbass and Kharkov.

WSJ editorial by Mark Kimmitt, retired U.S. Army brigadier general who served in the Obama administration: "Better To Negotiate Now Than Later"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistic-peril-for-nato-in-ukraine-defense-production-act-weapons-diplomatic-resolution-stockpiles-himars-atacm-missiles-moscow-11661888523

Quote:

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On Aug. 19, the U.S. pledged another $775 million for Ukraine. The aid provides more Javelins, Himars rockets, and artillery ammunition. It also includes TOW missiles, 105mm howitzers and smaller-caliber artillery ammunition. The last systems are older and less advanced than the items provided to date and may indicate that battlefield consumption rates have outpaced production to a point where excess inventories provided to Ukraine are nearly exhausted. If so, NATO will have to deal with dwindling stocks of leading-edge weapon systems. This likely will mean muddling through a longer war, with more casualties. It means more pressure from supporting nations, sustained inflation, less heating gas and falling popular support.

---

Quote:

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...A fourth option, and for President Volodymyr Zelensky the most vexing, is to push for an interim diplomatic resolution without (or with) territorial concessions. With Vladimir Putin, it may be impossible. As long as both sides believe they are winningor at least not losingthere is little incentive to negotiate.

Yet Mr. Zelensky must recognize that diminishing resupplies would have a disastrous effect on his army, not merely for battlefield operations but for the message of declining outside support it would send to the people of Ukraine. Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later.

In modern high-intensity warfare, logistics is the Achilles' heel. Good training, great tactics and brave soldiers are critical, but without weapons, food and fuel, armies grind to a halt. That may be what is happening as the battlefield becomes static and a breakthrough looks unlikely.
The military often talks about the ability to see things clearly and comprehensively. Looking into a future of protracted war, diminishing high-tech systems and mounting casualties, Mr. Zelensky and NATO must face up to tough decisions before those decisions are forced on them.

---

Surprisingly candid assessment of the Kherson offensive by the Wapo:

Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive

"In dimly lit hospital rooms in southern Ukraine, soldiers with severed limbs, shrapnel wounds, mangled hands and shattered joints recounted the lopsided disadvantages their units faced in the early days of a new offensive to expel Russian forces from the strategic city of Kherson.

The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia's entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. The interviews provided some of the first direct accounts of a push to retake captured territory that is so sensitive, Ukrainian military commanders have barred reporters from visiting the front lines.
...
"We lost five people for every one they did," said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.
...
Russia's Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.
Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.

Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.
Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.
...
Oleksandr said the Russian artillery fire was relentless. "They were just hitting us all the time," he said. "If we fire three mortars, they fire 20 in return."
The Ukrainian soldiers said they had to carefully ration their use of munitions but even when they did fire, they had trouble hitting targets. "When you give the coordinates, it's supposed to be accurate but it's not," he said, noting that his equipment dated back to 1989.
...
Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.
"When we turn on mobile phones or radio, they can recognize our presence immediately," said Denys. "And then the shooting starts."
...
The Ukrainian claims of retaking villages such as Vysokopillya could not be confirmed, though soldiers interviewed said they were able to advance into some previously Russian-controlled villages. Those soldiers declined to name the villages, citing instructions from their superiors

A group of Washington Post journalists who traveled within three miles of Vysokopillya, in northern Kherson, on Monday were prevented from entering the village by Ukrainian troops and could not ascertain its status. A local official said Ukrainian and Russian forces were still battling for control.
A clear picture of Ukraine's losses could not be independently assessed.
...
Denys, sitting upright on his hospital bed, said almost every member of his 120-person unit was injured, though only two were killed.

A 25-year-old soldier being treated for shrapnel wounds said that, within his unit of 100 soldiers, seven were killed and 20 injured. Ihor, the platoon commander, said 16 of the 32 men under his command were injured and one was killed.

Ukraine's injured soldiers have been spread out to different hospitals across southern Ukraine to free up the main medical facilities near the Kherson region for incoming patients."

golden sloth said:

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Cal88 said:

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WSJ editorial by Mark Kimmitt, retired U.S. Army brigadier general who served in the Obama administration: "Better To Negotiate Now Than Later"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistic-peril-for-nato-in-ukraine-defense-production-act-weapons-diplomatic-resolution-stockpiles-himars-atacm-missiles-moscow-11661888523

Quote:

---

On Aug. 19, the U.S. pledged another $775 million for Ukraine. The aid provides more Javelins, Himars rockets, and artillery ammunition. It also includes TOW missiles, 105mm howitzers and smaller-caliber artillery ammunition. The last systems are older and less advanced than the items provided to date and may indicate that battlefield consumption rates have outpaced production to a point where excess inventories provided to Ukraine are nearly exhausted. If so, NATO will have to deal with dwindling stocks of leading-edge weapon systems. This likely will mean muddling through a longer war, with more casualties. It means more pressure from supporting nations, sustained inflation, less heating gas and falling popular support.

---

Quote:

---

...A fourth option, and for President Volodymyr Zelensky the most vexing, is to push for an interim diplomatic resolution without (or with) territorial concessions. With Vladimir Putin, it may be impossible. As long as both sides believe they are winningor at least not losingthere is little incentive to negotiate.

Yet Mr. Zelensky must recognize that diminishing resupplies would have a disastrous effect on his army, not merely for battlefield operations but for the message of declining outside support it would send to the people of Ukraine. Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later.

In modern high-intensity warfare, logistics is the Achilles' heel. Good training, great tactics and brave soldiers are critical, but without weapons, food and fuel, armies grind to a halt. That may be what is happening as the battlefield becomes static and a breakthrough looks unlikely.
The military often talks about the ability to see things clearly and comprehensively. Looking into a future of protracted war, diminishing high-tech systems and mounting casualties, Mr. Zelensky and NATO must face up to tough decisions before those decisions are forced on them.

---

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Its not up to any American to have a say on negotiations. This is entirely Ukraine's decision, and thus far their decision has been to yell an emphatic NO at being invaded, conquered, and subsequently erased from history. I support Ukraine's sovereignty therefore support there decision to fight or not fight. As of now, they want to fight, and we should help them maintain their right to exist.

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American, UK & NATO interference in Ukraine since 2014 has been dictating the course of events in that country, which is leading to its destruction. A more moderate and responsible foreign policy would have changed the course of events, preserved Ukrainian sovereignty and completely avoided the carnage we are witnessing today.

dimitrig said:

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The biggest obstacle Russia faces is that their troops don't really want to fight. It's not a cause worth dying for to them. They just want to go back home to their wives and girlfriends.

The Ukrainians are very willing to fight and die to expel Russia. The citizens are helping the Ukrainian army by providing intelligence, conducting sabotage, and making Russia commit a lot of troops to occupy towns with little strategic value.

It's a war of attrition and I don't think the Russian public will have the stomach for it. The soldiers certainly don't.

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Putin is doing his best to prevent the public from knowing the toll this has taken on their young men (and now older men since they're running out of young conscripts).

Russia still hasn't updated their estimate of deaths since March, when they (under)represented it as something like 1,350 people. Ukraine has offered Russia the opportunity to collect the dead bodies but Russia generally prefers to pretend that no one has died so they don't have to tell mothers and fathers their sons died for a pointless war of unprovoked aggression in order to stoke Putin's ego. Eventually, the public will learn that their sons died for nothing. But don't underestimate for how long Putin can keep them in the dark.

Some information does leak out from Russia however and eventually the public will come to know what's happened. Here's an example showing a different take on the Kherson counteroffensive. War Translated seems to be legit but I haven't done a ton of diligence on them.

Russian Aleksandr Kots confirmed much more sophisticated plans of Ukrainians to cut off the Izyum group; Balakliya not important to be taken at all costs; blames Ministry of Defence for hiding the bad news. pic.twitter.com/yM0roTgVbO

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 7, 2022

Cal88 said:

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-Germany had covid lockdowns in winter of 21, which contributed to lower gas usage than what they would have normally used. So my 100 bcm estimate is more accurate.

-August gas consumption is less than a third that of midwinter, so meeting that late summer vacation time demand when solar and wind are near their peak is relatively easy with reduced Russian imports, but it's not quite the same challenge they will face this winter.

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Solid post.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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American, UK & NATO interference in Ukraine since 2014 has been dictating the course of events in that country, which is leading to its destruction. A more moderate and responsible foreign policy would have changed the course of events, preserved Ukrainian sovereignty and completely avoided the carnage we are witnessing today.

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I think it would be more important for Russia to have a moderate and sensible foreign policy towards Ukraine, like one that does not involve invasions and annexations.

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50 pages into this, I understand where you're coming from, but realistically speaking, Ukraine has to live with Russia as its neighbor, the same way Cuba or Canada have to live with the US as their neighbor, or Taiwan with China.

This conflict amounts to a very messy post-USSR divorce where two parties are fighting over their offspring (Crimea, Donbass).

The point that I was driving, several times in this thread, is the same point that General Kimmit recently made in his WSJ editorial above: that Ukraine will eventually have to face up to a settlement with Russia, and that the longer this conflict goes on, the more painful that settlement will be.

-Had they accepted Minsk II before the war, they would have staved off Russian invasion and been left as the largest country in Europe, conceding Crimea but keeping the Donbass, under a federal structure similar to that of Canada or Spain.

-Had they accepted the April compromise proposed in the Istanbul talks, they would have lost the Donbass, preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe, and saved the lives of over 100,000 Ukrainians. Ironically, this would have pleased many Ukrainian nationalists, many of whom viewing ethnic Russian in eastern Ukraine as difficult to assimilate to their rigid cultural norms.

-At this point, in September 22, a political settlement with Russia would most likely involve ceding the Kherson region and the land bridge from Crimea to the Donbass, but would preserve the western half of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkov, and the lives of another 100,000+ Ukrainians.

Bitter pill to swallow, doubtless, but there is little doubt that a future settlement will be worse, involving the loss of the entire coastline, Kharkov, Zaporizhia, and possibly Dnipropetrosk, half of the population and nearly 2/3 of the country's GDP.

It's a dynamic similar to Israel/Palestine, where any settlements with pre-1967 borders is no longer on the table. In Russia's case though, the areas of southern/eastern Ukraine that they would conceivably annex are culturally much easier to assimilate, cities like Odessa and Kharkov being largely russophone and historically connected to Russian culture.

We're headed for a course where things will be much worse for Ukraine. Despite what is reported in the MSM, the conflict has been largely one-sided since late Spring and the outcome is becoming clearer by the day.

Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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American, UK & NATO interference in Ukraine since 2014 has been dictating the course of events in that country, which is leading to its destruction. A more moderate and responsible foreign policy would have changed the course of events, preserved Ukrainian sovereignty and completely avoided the carnage we are witnessing today.

---

I think it would be more important for Russia to have a moderate and sensible foreign policy towards Ukraine, like one that does not involve invasions and annexations.

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We're headed for a course where things will be much worse for Ukraine. Despite what is reported in the MSM, the conflict has been largely one-sided since late Spring and the outcome is becoming clearer by the day.

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What do you see as the outcome?

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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American, UK & NATO interference in Ukraine since 2014 has been dictating the course of events in that country, which is leading to its destruction. A more moderate and responsible foreign policy would have changed the course of events, preserved Ukrainian sovereignty and completely avoided the carnage we are witnessing today.

---

I think it would be more important for Russia to have a moderate and sensible foreign policy towards Ukraine, like one that does not involve invasions and annexations.

---

50 pages into this, I understand where you're coming from, but realistically speaking, Ukraine has to live with Russia as its neighbor, the same way Cuba or Canada have to live with the US as their neighbor, or Taiwan with China.

This conflict amounts to a very messy post-USSR divorce where two parties are fighting over their offspring (Crimea, Donbass).

The point that I was driving, several times in this thread, is the same point that General Kimmit recently made in his WSJ editorial above: that Ukraine will eventually have to face up to a settlement with Russia, and that the longer this conflict goes on, the more painful that settlement will be.

-Had they accepted Minsk II before the war, they would have staved off Russian invasion and been left as the largest country in Europe, conceding Crimea but keeping the Donbass, under a federal structure similar to that of Canada or Spain.

-Had they accepted the April compromise proposed in the Istanbul talks, they would have lost the Donbass, preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe, and saved the lives of over 100,000 Ukrainians. Ironically, this would have pleased many Ukrainian nationalists, many of whom viewing ethnic Russian in eastern Ukraine as difficult to assimilate to their rigid cultural norms.

-At this point, in September 22, a political settlement with Russia would most likely involve ceding the Kherson region and the land bridge from Crimea to the Donbass, but would preserve the western half of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkov, and the lives of another 100,000+ Ukrainians.

Bitter pill to swallow, doubtless, but there is little doubt that a future settlement will be worse, involving the loss of the entire coastline, Kharkov, Zaporizhia, and possibly Dnipropetrosk, half of the population and nearly 2/3 of the country's GDP.

It's a dynamic similar to Israel/Palestine, where any settlements with pre-1967 borders is no longer on the table. In Russia's case though, the areas of southern/eastern Ukraine that they would conceivably annex are culturally much easier to assimilate, cities like Odessa and Kharkov being largely russophone and historically connected to Russian culture.

We're headed for a course where things will be much worse for Ukraine. Despite what is reported in the MSM, the conflict has been largely one-sided since late Spring and the outcome is becoming clearer by the day.

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Whatever happens, Ukraine will also have to live with NATO as their neighbor. It makes sense that they would want to have good relations with the West too.

It's pretty obvious at this point that Ukrainian leadership doesn't trust Russia to stick to any agreements, and why would they trust a country that is constantly trying to take their territory by force? I wouldn't either.

My problem with your arguments is that you put pretty much all of the responsibility on Ukraine, the West, NATO, etc., and act like Russia is just some wild animal that can't be expected to control itself. Last I checked, they have a government run by humans who can make choices too. Why does everyone else need to keep giving in to their increasingly belligerent demands?

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I understand your position and totally agree that this is Russia's "fault".

That said, what exactly do you propose instead of "giving in to their increasingly belligerent demands"? Because if I were Biden, I would probably be doing pretty much exactly what he's doing this year. But it's kind of a mess over there. The spring was "nice" (Russian Army's weaknesses exposed). I was kinda hoping Putin, facing pressure from within, would get tired of this. Maybe he is and is putting up a front.

What now?

golden sloth said:

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Big C said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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American, UK & NATO interference in Ukraine since 2014 has been dictating the course of events in that country, which is leading to its destruction. A more moderate and responsible foreign policy would have changed the course of events, preserved Ukrainian sovereignty and completely avoided the carnage we are witnessing today.

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I think it would be more important for Russia to have a moderate and sensible foreign policy towards Ukraine, like one that does not involve invasions and annexations.

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50 pages into this, I understand where you're coming from, but realistically speaking, Ukraine has to live with Russia as its neighbor, the same way Cuba or Canada have to live with the US as their neighbor, or Taiwan with China.

This conflict amounts to a very messy post-USSR divorce where two parties are fighting over their offspring (Crimea, Donbass).

The point that I was driving, several times in this thread, is the same point that General Kimmit recently made in his WSJ editorial above: that Ukraine will eventually have to face up to a settlement with Russia, and that the longer this conflict goes on, the more painful that settlement will be.

-Had they accepted Minsk II before the war, they would have staved off Russian invasion and been left as the largest country in Europe, conceding Crimea but keeping the Donbass, under a federal structure similar to that of Canada or Spain.

-Had they accepted the April compromise proposed in the Istanbul talks, they would have lost the Donbass, preserved Ukraine as the largest country in Europe, and saved the lives of over 100,000 Ukrainians. Ironically, this would have pleased many Ukrainian nationalists, many of whom viewing ethnic Russian in eastern Ukraine as difficult to assimilate to their rigid cultural norms.

-At this point, in September 22, a political settlement with Russia would most likely involve ceding the Kherson region and the land bridge from Crimea to the Donbass, but would preserve the western half of the Black Sea coast as well as Kharkov, and the lives of another 100,000+ Ukrainians.

Bitter pill to swallow, doubtless, but there is little doubt that a future settlement will be worse, involving the loss of the entire coastline, Kharkov, Zaporizhia, and possibly Dnipropetrosk, half of the population and nearly 2/3 of the country's GDP.

It's a dynamic similar to Israel/Palestine, where any settlements with pre-1967 borders is no longer on the table. In Russia's case though, the areas of southern/eastern Ukraine that they would conceivably annex are culturally much easier to assimilate, cities like Odessa and Kharkov being largely russophone and historically connected to Russian culture.

We're headed for a course where things will be much worse for Ukraine. Despite what is reported in the MSM, the conflict has been largely one-sided since late Spring and the outcome is becoming clearer by the day.

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Whatever happens, Ukraine will also have to live with NATO as their neighbor. It makes sense that they would want to have good relations with the West too.

It's pretty obvious at this point that Ukrainian leadership doesn't trust Russia to stick to any agreements, and why would they trust a country that is constantly trying to take their territory by force? I wouldn't either.

My problem with your arguments is that you put pretty much all of the responsibility on Ukraine, the West, NATO, etc., and act like Russia is just some wild animal that can't be expected to control itself. Last I checked, they have a government run by humans who can make choices too. Why does everyone else need to keep giving in to their increasingly belligerent demands?

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I understand your position and totally agree that this is Russia's "fault".

That said, what exactly do you propose instead of "giving in to their increasingly belligerent demands"? Because if I were Biden, I would probably be doing pretty much exactly what he's doing this year. But it's kind of a mess over there. The spring was "nice" (Russian Army's weaknesses exposed). I was kinda hoping Putin, facing pressure from within, would get tired of this. Maybe he is and is putting up a front.

What now?

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Ukraine still has a right to exist, the fact Russia didn't withdraw after the first 7 months doesn't change that fact.

Given that point, it is up to the Ukrainian people to determine their fate. The Ukrainians want to keep fighting, and choose not to surrender.

If Ukraine wants to fight, we should keep supporting them and their cause. We keep sending weapons, ammunition, food and medical supplies. We help Ukraine fight back, and we provide this support indefinitely.

In time we hope Russia realizes the cost of conquering and colonizing a foreign people is not worth the benefit of that territory, and withdraw. Russia has already lost an incredible amount of men, material, resources, and international respect.

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This is fine with me, if that is what Ukraine wants to do. Hope it works.

By all accounts (except Russians and people who amplify Kremlin propaganda), Ukraine has made strong progress in their offensive. When will the losses on Russian forces be too much for Putin to bear? LOL we all know he couldn't give a sh%t about his people dying.

Article here discusses the progress.

Twitter thread here from Mike Martin (former british sholdier who is a visiting fellow in war studies at Kings College.

Kharkiv and Kherson: A tale of two fronts

A map-illustrated thread

— Dr Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) September 7, 2022

Unit2Sucks said:

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By all accounts (except Russians and people who amplify Kremlin propaganda), Ukraine has made strong progress in their offensive. When will the losses on Russian forces be too much for Putin to bear? LOL we all know he couldn't give a sh%t about his people dying.

Article here discusses the progress.

Twitter thread here from Mike Martin (former british sholdier who is a visiting fellow in war studies at Kings College.

Kharkiv and Kherson: A tale of two fronts

A map-illustrated thread

— Dr Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) September 7, 2022

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I go to Yahoo for two things:
1) News on Ukraine; and
2) Fantasy Football