And a very good chance no pardon would ever happen. Been to that country 22 years ago, saw the military/police state it is/ was in. Sounds like nothing has changed with that government since then. Ruthless

Yikes

blungld said:

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Cal88 said:

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Looks like a solid win for Ukraine in the north, and a loss in the south. Overall though, it's been the best week for Ukrainian armed forces since Spring, it's a big boost for their morale.

If you want a solid, neutral and up to date picture of frontline movements, this is a good channel, run by a military geek from Singapore:

https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia

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Are these the same sources you were parroting about the total disaster of the Ukrainian counter or was that your own expertise on the area?

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The Ukraine counter has absolutely been a disaster in the south, they have lost about 15,000-20,000 men KIA/injured with very little territorial gains, and the situation is very tenuous for the 5k-8k troops that have crossed over the right bank of the Inhulets River with that river flooded after the Russian strike on a dam upstream.

The northern advance on Izuym on the other hand is an undisputed big Ukrainian win. They've picked a very weak spot along the 1000 mile frontline (US intel ftw here), a large region defended by around 2000 Russian military police and national guard troops and mounted a quick offensive led by NATO officers where they outnumbered the defenders by 8 to 1. This is an incredible fiasco by Russia, who had tens of thousands of troops maneuvering in a large military exercise in the Pacific 11 times zones away.

The site above, Defense Politics Asia, an independent site, and the others I follow accurately reported these findings. Those are far more reliable sources than analysts cited above like Peter Zeihan or partisan officials like Vindman.

The fallout from the Kharkov advance is that Ukrainians will now be less likely to negotiate a settlement with Russia, so the carnage will continue. To the extent that this military setback for Russia might temper their will to keep fighting in Ukraine, that is a positive thing, though the counterside is that it puts Ukraine further away from the negotiating table, which is the only realistic means this war ends. Russia is now likely to escalate its military activities ahead of the Fall muddy season (mid-October through November).

sonofabear51 said:

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And a very good chance no pardon would ever happen. Been to that country 22 years ago, saw the military/police state it is/ was in. Sounds like nothing has changed with that government since then. Ruthless

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Russia is much better off today than it was 2-3 decades ago, by any measure. Its GDP today is 7 times larger than when you visited. The 1990s were the worst decade in Russian history since WW2, a third of the population was plunged into abject poverty, crime and substance addiction where off the charts. Not the same situation today.



I've never been to Russia, but my friends who have visited recently said that cities like St Petersburg or Moscow look cleaner and safer today than Paris or London.

Good impartial rundown of the military situation by Austrian colonel Reisner:

And to absolutely no one's surprise Russia will hold a sham referendum this month on whether or not Luhansk and Donetsk want to be annexed by Russia. No one believes the election will be fair, and it once again reveals Russia's true goal in Ukraine: conquest and colonization.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-marches-farther-into-liberated-lands-separatist-calls-urgent-referendum-2022-09-19/

Another crazy day in Russia. Putin is in freefall and has obviously lost much of the command he used to hold over the country. His desperation is backfiring and further proves how unstrategic he is. If you thought the brain drain was bad from Russia up to this point, you haven't seen anything yet.

Mobilizing, equipping, training, housing, deploying, and leading into combat 300,000 Reserves after losing 2,000 tanks and anywhere from 15k to 80k regular troops is a fantasy. All he has is threats. His days are numbered. They are losing a war he promised would be easy. https://t.co/dgayKFWh15

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) September 21, 2022

I think Putin was told his entire professional army was going to quit at the end of their contracts rather than face winter huddling in trenches huntrd by Ukrainian SOF and torched by HIMARS.

— Dmitry Grozoubinski (@DmitryOpines) September 21, 2022

Putin this morning that breaks a two decade-long pact between the Kremlin and the Russian people:
You can get on with their lives while we're do whatever we live on the international stage.

— Ott hunt (@ott_hunt) September 21, 2022

All plane tickets from Russia to visa-free countries are sold out, @ru_rbc reports. I wonder what the ratio of male to female passengers is.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 21, 2022

Fascinating, informed thread on what to expect from Russian reservits https://t.co/xoIMP73u4l

— David Frum (@davidfrum) September 21, 2022

BREAKING Russian airlines ordered to stop selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65 https://t.co/tSKfSUFR0o

— AIRLIVE (@airlivenet) September 21, 2022

DRAFT EVASION: Sotiri Dimpinoudis @sotiridi now reports that the line of Russian cars attempting to enter Finland is now 35 kilometers long, and lengthening by the hour. https://t.co/xvxnyAerNX

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 21, 2022

sycasey said:

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This is Putin's mess. The Russian people don't actually want to kill Ukrainians or die trying.

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Putin's fake approval ratings have their limits. Maybe Tucker Carlson and other GOP Putin super fans will ship out to Russia to fight the (wink wink) nazis.

Russia is going to officially annex the four provinces below this week, and declare them Russian territory. This definitely does reflect the will for self-determination of the great majority of the two Donbass provinces, whereas for the two other provinces there probably is a split along ethno-linguistic lines and perhaps generational lines.



The mobilization of 300,000 Russian troops is the consequence of this political decision, Russia is vastly escalating its military involvement in Ukraine, and will likely officially declare war on Ukraine next week (or at the very least upgrade its "Special Operation" to something officially closer to full-on war).

There is a deal in place, allegedly brokered by the Turks and Saudis, for a peace plan that will freeze the borders along the 4 oblasts in exchange for no further Russian advances. If Zelensky's government accepts it, the war ends, and Ukraine holds on to Odessa, Kharkov and Dnipro. This really is the ideal situation from where I stand, especially if there is some kind of return to Russia resupplying Europe in gas, which would avert a tremendous economic depression across the continent.

If the deal is rejected, Russia is going to take over a second layer with 4 more oblasts, Nikolayev, Odessa, Dnipropetrosk and Kharkov, about a quarter of Ukrainian territory, and an even bigger chunk of its GDP. I think this is the most likely outcome, as the realists in Ukraine aren't running the show.

Russia is going to prepare its major push, where it will now have a much larger army and a n even bigger edge in firepower, whereas up to now it has fought Ukrainian forces with roughly half as many boots on the ground as them. I think you will see more dramatic advances west by the Russians, like those from the beginning of the war, starting in December after the end of the Fall mud season (October-November).

Winter conditions favor the Russians, as there is less groundcover and foliage, and the movement of tanks overland across fields is unhindered. Much like in the wars against Napoleon and Hitler, General Winter is on Russia's side.

Historically doesn't winter favor the defender because the offensive has to keep supplying and moving forward?

bearister said:

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Historically doesn't winter favor the defender because the offensive has to keep supplying and moving forward?

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Both the Grande Armee and Wehrmacht were completely overstretched, very far from their home bases, and they also weren't properly equipped to fight in Russian winter weather, while Russia has a short and clear logistical path to the frontlines, fighting a war next door. Ukraine can definitely disrupt those with long-range missiles (ATACMS), which I think the Biden administration will end up providing them with, but much like with the HIMARS, not in sufficient numbers to counter Russia's own long-range missile and MLRS systems.

Russia would start having logistical issues if it ventured much deeper into hostile territory in western Ukraine, facing guerrilla attacks, but that hasn't been a problem so far in the 4 provinces they're in right now, which are far less hostile regions.

Cal88 said:

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Russia is going to officially annex the four provinces below this week, and declare them Russian territory. This definitely does reflect the will for self-determination of the great majority of the two Donbass provinces, whereas for the two other provinces there probably is a split along ethno-linguistic lines and perhaps generational lines.



The mobilization of 300,000 Russian troops is the consequence of this political decision, Russia is vastly escalating its military involvement in Ukraine, and will likely officially declare war on Ukraine next week (or at the very least upgrade its "Special Operation" to something officially closer to full-on war).

There is a deal in place, allegedly brokered by the Turks and Saudis, for a peace plan that will freeze the borders along the 4 oblasts in exchange for no further Russian advances. If Zelensky's government accepts it, the war ends, and Ukraine holds on to Odessa, Kharkov and Dnipro. This really is the ideal situation from where I stand, especially if there is some kind of return to Russia resupplying Europe in gas, which would avert a tremendous economic depression across the continent.

If the deal is rejected, Russia is going to take over a second layer with 4 more oblasts, Nikolayev, Odessa, Dnipropetrosk and Kharkov, about a quarter of Ukrainian territory, and an even bigger chunk of its GDP. I think this is the most likely outcome, as the realists in Ukraine aren't running the show.

Russia is going to prepare its major push, where it will now have a much larger army and a n even bigger edge in firepower, whereas up to now it has fought Ukrainian forces with roughly half as many boots on the ground as them. I think you will see more dramatic advances west by the Russians, like those from the beginning of the war, starting in December after the end of the Fall mud season (October-November).

Winter conditions favor the Russians, as there is less groundcover and foliage, and the movement of tanks overland across fields is unhindered. Much like in the wars against Napoleon and Hitler, General Winter is on Russia's side.

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Is it believed that Russia would accept that deal? Wouldn't Putin lose face? Or is he starting to worry about dissension?

Right now it is still a win for Russia, because they pick up a territory about the size of England, and they accomplish the goal of "liberating" the Donbass. If they can somewhat re-normalize relations with the EU and get their quarter trillion Euros/US$ back, then it's a definite win. As well the Ukrainians will have ended the war on a high note, taking back all of the northeast.

Hard to read the Russians' motives, because they might not push too hard for a resolution along the current lines in order to take over another 100,000km2 bite out of Ukraine. NATO's leadership as well could be divided between those who fear Russia will get a total triumph if the war is not stopped, which would be a terrible outcome they want to avoid, and those who believe Russia is going to stall and bleed further in a Ukrainian quagmire, in which case all settlements should be avoided.

sycasey said:

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Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.

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They could actually end it here, provided they hold on to the 4 provinces. Politically speaking, they're never going to withdraw from these new lines. Only a full-blown NATO intervention with 200,000-300,000 boots on the ground could change that at this point.

dimitrig said:

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Big C said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Big C said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia is going to officially annex the four provinces below this week, and declare them Russian territory. This definitely does reflect the will for self-determination of the great majority of the two Donbass provinces, whereas for the two other provinces there probably is a split along ethno-linguistic lines and perhaps generational lines.



The mobilization of 300,000 Russian troops is the consequence of this political decision, Russia is vastly escalating its military involvement in Ukraine, and will likely officially declare war on Ukraine next week (or at the very least upgrade its "Special Operation" to something officially closer to full-on war).

There is a deal in place, allegedly brokered by the Turks and Saudis, for a peace plan that will freeze the borders along the 4 oblasts in exchange for no further Russian advances. If Zelensky's government accepts it, the war ends, and Ukraine holds on to Odessa, Kharkov and Dnipro. This really is the ideal situation from where I stand, especially if there is some kind of return to Russia resupplying Europe in gas, which would avert a tremendous economic depression across the continent.

If the deal is rejected, Russia is going to take over a second layer with 4 more oblasts, Nikolayev, Odessa, Dnipropetrosk and Kharkov, about a quarter of Ukrainian territory, and an even bigger chunk of its GDP. I think this is the most likely outcome, as the realists in Ukraine aren't running the show.

Russia is going to prepare its major push, where it will now have a much larger army and a n even bigger edge in firepower, whereas up to now it has fought Ukrainian forces with roughly half as many boots on the ground as them. I think you will see more dramatic advances west by the Russians, like those from the beginning of the war, starting in December after the end of the Fall mud season (October-November).

Winter conditions favor the Russians, as there is less groundcover and foliage, and the movement of tanks overland across fields is unhindered. Much like in the wars against Napoleon and Hitler, General Winter is on Russia's side.

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Is it believed that Russia would accept that deal? Wouldn't Putin lose face? Or is he starting to worry about dissension?

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Frankly, if that deal was agreed to, I believe there would be peace between Russia and Ukraine. For about 3-5 years. Then Russia would find reasons to invade and 'support" citizens of the border provinces (oblasts?) with new military equipment and more better trained soldiers. They would probably still have crappy military leadership. It takes more than a few years to replace dozens of Generals.

At this point, only a fool would trust Putin to be true to his words.

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I hear what you're saying, but Ukraine might be getting a little tired of their young men getting killed and their country getting blown to smithereens, so I say we leave it up to them. The optimist in me hopes that Russia might be ready for some reform over the next several years. If not, at least more Ukrainians live to fight another day.

With this agreement, I think that the general world consensus would have to be that Russia got their asses handed to them, considering the way it could've gone.

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I view it as appeasement and I would not let Mexico annex New Mexico and Arizona if they invaded. I agree it is up to the Ukrainians to decide, but I imagine that too much blood has been spilled now to allow Russia an easy way out.

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Kind of appeasement, to be sure, but maybe Ukraine needs to be pragmatic (but it's up to them). I'm not sure the power dynamic is similar: Russia invading Ukraine versus Mexico invading the US.

Big C said:

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dimitrig said:

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Big C said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Big C said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia is going to officially annex the four provinces below this week, and declare them Russian territory. This definitely does reflect the will for self-determination of the great majority of the two Donbass provinces, whereas for the two other provinces there probably is a split along ethno-linguistic lines and perhaps generational lines.



The mobilization of 300,000 Russian troops is the consequence of this political decision, Russia is vastly escalating its military involvement in Ukraine, and will likely officially declare war on Ukraine next week (or at the very least upgrade its "Special Operation" to something officially closer to full-on war).

There is a deal in place, allegedly brokered by the Turks and Saudis, for a peace plan that will freeze the borders along the 4 oblasts in exchange for no further Russian advances. If Zelensky's government accepts it, the war ends, and Ukraine holds on to Odessa, Kharkov and Dnipro. This really is the ideal situation from where I stand, especially if there is some kind of return to Russia resupplying Europe in gas, which would avert a tremendous economic depression across the continent.

If the deal is rejected, Russia is going to take over a second layer with 4 more oblasts, Nikolayev, Odessa, Dnipropetrosk and Kharkov, about a quarter of Ukrainian territory, and an even bigger chunk of its GDP. I think this is the most likely outcome, as the realists in Ukraine aren't running the show.

Russia is going to prepare its major push, where it will now have a much larger army and a n even bigger edge in firepower, whereas up to now it has fought Ukrainian forces with roughly half as many boots on the ground as them. I think you will see more dramatic advances west by the Russians, like those from the beginning of the war, starting in December after the end of the Fall mud season (October-November).

Winter conditions favor the Russians, as there is less groundcover and foliage, and the movement of tanks overland across fields is unhindered. Much like in the wars against Napoleon and Hitler, General Winter is on Russia's side.

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Is it believed that Russia would accept that deal? Wouldn't Putin lose face? Or is he starting to worry about dissension?

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Frankly, if that deal was agreed to, I believe there would be peace between Russia and Ukraine. For about 3-5 years. Then Russia would find reasons to invade and 'support" citizens of the border provinces (oblasts?) with new military equipment and more better trained soldiers. They would probably still have crappy military leadership. It takes more than a few years to replace dozens of Generals.

At this point, only a fool would trust Putin to be true to his words.

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I hear what you're saying, but Ukraine might be getting a little tired of their young men getting killed and their country getting blown to smithereens, so I say we leave it up to them. The optimist in me hopes that Russia might be ready for some reform over the next several years. If not, at least more Ukrainians live to fight another day.

With this agreement, I think that the general world consensus would have to be that Russia got their asses handed to them, considering the way it could've gone.

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I view it as appeasement and I would not let Mexico annex New Mexico and Arizona if they invaded. I agree it is up to the Ukrainians to decide, but I imagine that too much blood has been spilled now to allow Russia an easy way out.

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Kind of appeasement, to be sure, but maybe Ukraine needs to be pragmatic (but it's up to them). I'm not sure the power dynamic is similar: Russia invading Ukraine versus Mexico invading the US.

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I am taking more about how the citizens and the government might feel than what they can actually do about it.

There are a lot of Mexican citizens and people with Mexican families in the Southwest US who are Mexican sympathizers, but I don't think that our government or even our general citizenry would support ceding territory to Mexico.

Likewise, just because Ukraine is forced to capitulate doesn't mean they will feel good about it. They aren't even happy about Crimea and want it back. It just means another war down the road when things may be more in their favor. It may also be the start of a guerilla war. I don't think that anyone should think that a cease fire under those terms means there will actually be any peace. Both sides have been busy killing each other for 6 months now. That won't easily be forgotten, especially on the part of the people whose sovereign territory is being invaded by its neighbor.

This is a very relevant, and revealing piece from Zelensky on this subject:

In 2021 Zelensky told the majority of the Donbass population of Russian ethnicity to leave the Ukraine for Russia if they feel Russian. Instead of leaving, the people of Donbass are voting this week for their home to join the Russian Federation. pic.twitter.com/zekKwzIvs3

— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) September 25, 2022

Europe is an old continent, with a very diverse population. You cannot impose a unique national identity on a whole country, especially when that country here has become the largest country in Europe. And in Ukraine's case, that modern national identity has been defined in opposition to the cultural identity of a large minority.

In Europe today, England cannot tell Scotland to lose their kilts or butt off, Spain cannot prevent its Basques and Catalans from speaking or teaching that language, France cannot stamp out Breton or Corsican identity. If 50.01% of Scots or Quebecers vote to leave their federal national structure, they will be granted independence. That's how civilized countries operate.

Zelensky's government had the opportunity to accommodate for his main national minority through the Minsk Agreements, which were forged with the assistance of Merkel and Hollande, and which provided a peaceful framework to resolve the Donbass conflict. He refused to abide by it, as reflected in the video above, and the current war is a direct consequence of this stance.

This source above is completely detached with reality as far as the Crimean referendum is concerned, the notions that it was a bunch of aunts being forced to vote for leaving Ukraine is pure fantasy. You could have made an argument about the ongoing Zaporizhie or Kherson referenda, where there is a larger pro-Ukrainian minority, but in the case of Crimea, as well as the two Donbass provinces, there is no question whatsoever that the local population is overwhelmingly pro-Russian, that much was widely accepted. even in western media and polling agencies, before the war started this year.

Wikipedia on the Crimean referendum:

Quote:

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In May 2014, Washington, D.C., pollster Pew Research published results of a survey that encompassed Crimea, Ukraine, and Russia, in which it was reported that 88% of Crimeans believed the government of Kyiv should officially recognize the result of Crimea's referendum.

Between December 12 and 25, 2014, Levada-Center carried out a survey of Crimea that was commissioned by John O'Loughlin, College Professor of Distinction and Professor of Geography at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and Gerard Toal (Gearid Tuathail), Professor of Government and International Affairs at Virginia Tech's National Capital Region campus.

The results of that survey were published by Open Democracy in March, 2015, and reported that, overall, 84% of Crimeans felt the choice to secede from Ukraine and accede to Russia was "Absolutely the right decision", with the next-largest segment of respondents saying the decision to return to Russia was the "Generally right decision".

The survey commissioners, John O'Loughlin and Gerard Toal, wrote in their Open Democracy article that, while they felt that the referendum was "an illegal act under international law", their survey shows "It is also an act that enjoys the widespread support of the peninsula's inhabitants, with the important exception of its Crimean Tatar population" with "widespread support for Crimea's decision to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation one year ago". Their survey also reported that a majority of Crimean Tatars viewed Crimea's return to Russia as either the "Absolutely right decision" or the "Generally right decision".

From January 16 22, 2015, Germany's GfK Group, with support from the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives, followed-up their pre-referendum survey of Crimeans' voting intention with a post-referendum survey about how satisfied Crimeans are with the outcome of their referendum. GfK's post-referendum survey found that 82% of Crimeans "Fully endorse" Crimea's referendum and return to Russia, while another 11% "Mostly endorse" it...

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum

The problem here is the gap between propaganda and reality, you can't take Ukrainian propaganda (or Russian propaganda for that matter, see the sinking of the Moskva) at face value. In the case of Crimea, the reality is well beyond dispute provided one makes an honest attempt of objectively evaluating the facts. Crimea has historically been, and is, largely Russian. The referendum and polls above only reflect that reality.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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The problem here is the gap between propaganda and reality, you can't take Ukrainian propaganda (or Russian propaganda for that matter, see the sinking of the Moskva) at face value. In the case of Crimea, the reality is well beyond dispute provided one makes an honest attempt of objectively evaluating the facts. Crimea has historically been, and is, largely Russian. The referendum and polls above only reflect that reality.

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There are a lot of border counties in America that are heavily Mexican. That doesn't mean if you held a free election there they would choose to have those counties join Mexico.

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Completely different situation,

-The US GDP per capita is about 7 times higher than Mexico's, while Russia's GDP/capita is 3 times higher than Ukraine's.
-The Mexican population in border states is largely made up of recent immigrants, while the Donbass and southern Ukraine have been largely Russian for over two centuries. Cities like Odessa, Mariupol, Nikolayev were all founded by Russia in the 18th century, and populated by a Russian majority throughout their history.
-There isn't an open hostility of the federal government against Spanish speakers in the SW, the same way there has been in Ukraine between the Kiev govt and their Russian minorities in the east and southeast.

Quote:

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If Crimea gets to hold an actual free and fair election in which they choose to join the Russian Federation, then okay, we can talk about how that happens. Any such election held while under Russian occupation is not that.

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Bad faith legalistic argument. You know very well that the great majority of Crimeans are (1) ethnic Russians and (2) support being part of Russia, as proven by the three polls above.

Jimmy Carter on the subject:

Quote:

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Jimmy Carter: Russia's invasion of Crimea was 'inevitable'
The Associated Press Published Tuesday, March 25, 2014 7:26AM EDT

In this photoprovided by CBS, former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, left, talks with David Letterman on "Late Show with David Letterman," Monday March 24, 2014. (AP Photo/CBS, Jeffrey R. Staab)

NEW YORK - Former U.S. president Jimmy Carter says the Crimean annexation was "inevitable" because Russia considers it to be part of their country and so many Crimeans consider themselves Russian.

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Do you disagree with the fact that most Crimeans identify as Russians?

golden sloth said:

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Cal88 said:

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This is a very relevant, and revealing piece from Zelensky on this subject:

In 2021 Zelensky told the majority of the Donbass population of Russian ethnicity to leave the Ukraine for Russia if they feel Russian. Instead of leaving, the people of Donbass are voting this week for their home to join the Russian Federation. pic.twitter.com/zekKwzIvs3

— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) September 25, 2022

Europe is an old continent, with a very diverse population. You cannot impose a unique national identity on a whole country, especially when that country here has become the largest country in Europe. And in Ukraine's case, that modern national identity has been defined in opposition to the cultural identity of a large minority.

In Europe today, England cannot tell Scotland to lose their kilts or butt off, Spain cannot prevent its Basques and Catalans from speaking or teaching that language, France cannot stamp out Breton or Corsican identity. If 50.01% of Scots or Quebecers vote to leave their federal national structure, they will be granted independence. That's how civilized countries operate.

Zelensky's government had the opportunity to accommodate for his main national minority through the Minsk Agreements, which were forged with the assistance of Merkel and Hollande, and which provided a peaceful framework to resolve the Donbass conflict. He refused to abide by it, as reflected in the video above, and the current war is a direct consequence of this stance.

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Stop lying!

The Minsk accords has nothing, absolutely nothing to do with why Russia invaded. Russia invaded to conquer and colonize Ukraine. They dont believe Ukraine has a right to exist. They dont believe the people of Ukraine are an actual 'people'. Putin said so himself at the outset of the invasion.

Stop saying Russia is trying to liberate or defend anybody. They arent. They invaded a peaceful country to conquer their land, and if it had gone well, they would be invading someone else right now (probably moldova).

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I've provided evidence above of Zelensky denying the right of Russian minorities to exist in the Donbass. The moment a central government denies the right of a long-established, large minority to live within its borders in their own cultural norms and language, it loses its local legitimacy as a modern, inclusive democracy.

The Minsk Agreement provided cultural autonomy for the Donbass. Its violation by Ukraine alone was not the reason Russia invaded, the other reason was that Ukraine was being used as a NATO base, much like Cuba was used as a Soviet base in the early 60s, which in and of itself, would have been a trigger for a full-on US invasion of Cuba and regime change.

These two conditions, the neutrality of Ukraine and the application of Minsk II, along with the recognition of Crimea as Russian, would have staved off this war, no question. Those were the terms put together by Chancellor Olaf Scholtz in February, and nearly the same terms Ukraine was close to agreeing with after teh Instanbul talks in early Spring. In both instances, a potential peaceful settlement was scuttled by the personal interventions of Boris Johnson, Victoria Nuland and other NATO neocons.

Social media is continuing to show he world what a joke Putin and his war effort are. Able-bodied people are fleeing in droves, a conscript shot a recruitment officer to avoid dying for nothing, conscripts are being trained in as little as a day and then sent to the front lines with no supplies. Putin is overwhelmingly conscripting ethnic minorities from the poorer outer regions of Russia to push out the period where the Moscow elites start calling for his head publicly. I assume he won't be standing near any windows any time soon, even while holed up in his dacha where he is apparently directly calling the shots on the front line because he can't trust any of the yes men he has running his Washington Generals army. China and India have both publicly distanced themselves from Putin and his dumb war, so there really are no meaningful supporters left.

Soon we will hear stories of these conscripts laying down their arms and leaving for greener pastures. Putin would love to be bailed out of this disaster he created because there is no clean exit for him and the world now knows how much of a paper tiger his military has been. I would assume that Ukraine know the score and will be able to make the right decisions for themselves.

Wife of a 45-year-old Russian man who was drafted reports that he & fellow draftees (~1,000 men) will be sent to the frontline tomorrow, after *1 day* of training. None underwent a review of a medical commission to ensure they're fit to serve https://t.co/YhQ7uZmGod

— Elizabeth Tsurkov🌻 (@Elizrael) September 25, 2022

Soldiers, most likely L/DPR guys, are sitting in the forest on the frontline, complaining about how they were dumped with no food or water, only with assault rifles. pic.twitter.com/NTR4RhNS6j

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 26, 2022

Newly mobilized Russians are told what they need to take to the war. Spoiler - pads and tampons.
(English subtitles) pic.twitter.com/CumYqqpuit

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 26, 2022

Video of a Russian man opening fire and killing the military commandant in a draft centre in the city of Úst-Ilimsk in Irkutsk region. The military commandant was the head of the local draft committee. He has died, according to reports. pic.twitter.com/knnWNJxE9Y

— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) September 26, 2022

Goodnight #Ukraine. Getting ready to launch a devastating attack on 🇺🇦, Russia's conscripts are undergoing a rigorous training regime. Much of the training involves premature running 😂. pic.twitter.com/6J98RsQDOD

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) September 24, 2022

Novaya Gazeta, citing a Kremlin source, reports that 261,000 men (!!!) have left Russia since Putin announced mobilisation on Wednesday https://t.co/ws1vvHhA2z

— Felix Light (@felix_light) September 25, 2022

On the map of the military mortality in 🇷🇺, we can see that while the big metropolises like Moscow&St.Petersburg were spared from the sludge on zinc coffins in the last 7months, the regions with a high proportion of ethnic minorities are prominent amongst the war casualties.
13/

— Anastasiya1451 (@Anastasiya1451A) September 24, 2022