tequila4kapp said:

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I'm reading / seeing stuff that indicates the Kherson retreat will have strategic benefits to Russia. The way they did it prevents Ukraine from pursuing them. Fighting in the region is likely done for the winter which lets Russia a) redeploy troops elsewhere and b) rebuild stock of armaments/supplies

Maybe. Then again maybe a potential benefit from an otherwise bad loss.

---

All I know is that every time the Russians lose territory in this war, some people (Cal88) are out there saying that it was a strategic retreat so they can regroup and come back stronger. And then they just lose more.

So color me skeptical that THIS time it's a brilliant strategy by Russia.

sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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I'm reading / seeing stuff that indicates the Kherson retreat will have strategic benefits to Russia. The way they did it prevents Ukraine from pursuing them. Fighting in the region is likely done for the winter which lets Russia a) redeploy troops elsewhere and b) rebuild stock of armaments/supplies

Maybe. Then again maybe a potential benefit from an otherwise bad loss.

---

All I know is that every time the Russians lose territory in this war, some people (Cal88) are out there saying that it was a strategic retreat so they can regroup and come back stronger. And then they just lose more.

So color me skeptical that THIS time it's a brilliant strategy by Russia.

---

Retreating all the way to their own border would be a brilliant strategy by Russia. Anything else will lead to more misery and suffering.

They're not going to retreat from Crimea, or the land bridge they've taken, this is a red line for Russia. They will escalate their commitment, as much as it takes, to hold on and secure that region. By the end of the year, they will have around 450,000 troops available for the three main fronts.

The reason for the Kherson evacuation was well-explained in the video I've posted above, a hit on the dam upstream might effectively isolate all their personnel on the right bank, and Ukraine would be in a position to destroy or capture 20,000+ Russian troops that would become trapped on that bank, with very limited possibility of reinforcements.

This current stage represents the best opportunity for a settlement, with the current borders and Ukraine riding high from this Russian retreat. Apparently there is a rift within the Biden administration with the military wing led by Milley advocating this cease fire and a Minsk III-type of settlement, while the neocon wing wants to press on and keep the war going.

Milley and the Pentagon realize that the next stage of the fighting with up to 3 times as many Russian troops, and less constraints on Russia (esp wrt hitting Ukrainian infrastructure) is going to be very difficult for Ukraine, whose resources are much more limited, both in manpower and in hardware, the inventories of its former eastern block allies having been depleted. Milley and co are also weary of throwing US personnel in large numbers into the fight.

If this war goes on, Ukraine is going to have another 50,000-100,000 KIA this winter in a conflict where they are unlikely to make further territorial gains due to the density of the Russian troops. They've made considerable gains in the last stage by exploiting areas of weakness on a frontline that was about 1,200km long manned by 175,000 Russians, whereas now Russia has 3 times as many troops to guard a significantly smaller conflict zone.

Most Ukrainians want this war to end, those who are willing to extend this war are misguided cheerleaders with no skin in the game. The prospect for Ukraine to gain a few more square kms at a cost of thousands of bodies should not excite anyone who is seriously concerned about their fate, especially when there is a strong likelihood that Russia will regain the upper hand, and that the next stage of the war is going to be much more dire for the population of big cities who will now face complete collapse of their infrastructure.

Cal88 said:

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They're not going to retreat from Crimea, or the land bridge they've taken, this is a red line for Russia. They will escalate their commitment, as much as it takes, to hold on and secure that region. By the end of the year, they will have around 450,000 troops available for the three main fronts.

---

Just bookmarking this for when Russia is forced out of Crimea.

dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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I'm reading / seeing stuff that indicates the Kherson retreat will have strategic benefits to Russia. The way they did it prevents Ukraine from pursuing them. Fighting in the region is likely done for the winter which lets Russia a) redeploy troops elsewhere and b) rebuild stock of armaments/supplies

Maybe. Then again maybe a potential benefit from an otherwise bad loss.

---

All I know is that every time the Russians lose territory in this war, some people (Cal88) are out there saying that it was a strategic retreat so they can regroup and come back stronger. And then they just lose more.

So color me skeptical that THIS time it's a brilliant strategy by Russia.

---

Retreating all the way to their own border would be a brilliant strategy by Russia. Anything else will lead to more misery and suffering.

---

This will never happen because Russia went into this "special military operation" to vanquish the nazis/woke Ukrainians and have not yet accomplished their objective. Anyone who thinks Russia has any interest in ending this dumb war would have to acknowledge that Putin had no real objective and was just hoping to steal a country. Even if the original argument was about NATO, Putin is far worse off than before with other neighbors joining NATO and NATO much stronger than it was a year ago.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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I'm reading / seeing stuff that indicates the Kherson retreat will have strategic benefits to Russia. The way they did it prevents Ukraine from pursuing them. Fighting in the region is likely done for the winter which lets Russia a) redeploy troops elsewhere and b) rebuild stock of armaments/supplies

Maybe. Then again maybe a potential benefit from an otherwise bad loss.

---

All I know is that every time the Russians lose territory in this war, some people (Cal88) are out there saying that it was a strategic retreat so they can regroup and come back stronger. And then they just lose more.

So color me skeptical that THIS time it's a brilliant strategy by Russia.

---

Retreating all the way to their own border would be a brilliant strategy by Russia. Anything else will lead to more misery and suffering.

---

This will never happen because Russia went into this "special military operation" to vanquish the nazis/woke Ukrainians and have not yet accomplished their objective. Anyone who thinks Russia has any interest in ending this dumb war would have to acknowledge that Putin had no real objective and was just hoping to steal a country. Even if the original argument was about NATO, Putin is far worse off than before with other neighbors joining NATO and NATO much stronger than it was a year ago.

---

The current NATO coalition is going to undergo some severe strains with the energy crisis looming this winter across the continent. Countries like France, Italy, Germany, Holland or even Czechia are not on the same page as Poland, Lithuania etc, and this rift is going to grow much wider, as will the rift between the current pro-war governments (Macron, Habeck, Baerbock etc) and the general public.

The only people who want to press on in an attempt to conquer Crimea are Ukrainian ultranationalists and western cheerleaders like you who have zero skin in the game, and who are also clueless about Crimean demographics.

Which one are you?

AunBear89 said:

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Which one are you?

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I picture you as the older, heavier-set version of this

tequila4kapp said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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oski003 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Russia is so strong, they're now trying to mobilize tourists into their military. Surely a sign of strength. I hope Ukraine is ready for a bunch of unmotivated dudes in sandals and socks coming for them.

Putin signs decree that allows Russian army to mobilize foreigners that are just visiting Russia pic.twitter.com/wc07SItgoq

— Mrbam (@MrbamNews) November 14, 2022

I guess that's one way to help offset the damage this dumb war is doing to Russia's economy. It looks like Putin was waiting for the red tsunami to bail him out and when it failed to materialize he pulled out of Kherson. The GOP has gone from resolutely anti-Russian to being Putin's only hope for saving some face in this unwinnable war.

"Data released by the Russian Ministry of Finance on Friday showed that in the year to October, the government budget surplus stood at 128 billion rubles, or around $2.1 billion, down from a surplus of 2.3 trillion rubles in the same period last year." https://t.co/JnFYZp8FWj

— Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) November 11, 2022

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What does this story have to do with the GOP? I don't get it.

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The fake Russian conspiracy story never dies in some corners...

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No conspiracy theory or collusion alleged. I am merely saying that it shouldn't be surprising that the midterms would have an impact on Kremlin strategy.

The GOP publicly campaigned on reducing aid to Ukraine and the GOP predicted a red tsunami. Russia was holding out hope that would help turn the tide in Ukraine. When the red tsunami was more like a puddle, Putin pulled the plug on Kherson.

Maybe it's a coincidence or maybe Putin was hoping to be bailed out of his terrible decision to start a war. The dynamics are all out in the open so this is completely different from Putin's interference in the 2016 election, which is undeniable. The only question about 2016 is how much Trump and his team knew and how much coordination there was. We know Manafort was working with Russian intelligence and we know that Trump Jr was eager for assistance ("If it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer").

Here's an article that gets into the current dynamics and the possible impact on Putin/Kherson:

Quote:

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While the war in Ukraine was not a major issue in the midterms, Ukrainiansand others who support their causewatched Tuesday's elections with some apprehension due to a streak of GOP skepticism toward U.S. aid to Ukraine. Last month, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy suggested that Ukraine would no longer get a "blank check" once the Republicans got control of Congress. He and his allies promptly moved to reassure the party's defense hawks that they weren't advocating a cutoff of military aid, just better oversight, but the anti-Ukraine rhetoric from the right continued to make people nervous, especially with such prominent pundits as Fox News's Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham turning their shows into platforms for Kremlin talking points.

The GOP's lackluster election performance, which may leave control of the Senate in Democratic hands, likely spells the end of any serious effort to curb aid to Ukraine. This comes amid other big developments certain to affect the war's course: the Russians' decision to withdraw from Kherson, abandoning their biggest prize since the February 24 invasion, and renewed but still uncertain talk of negotiations.

---

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More evidence of my opinion about Kherson. It's not far-fetched by any stretch of the imagination. What's far-fetched is believing Kremlin spin that pretends like Russia is achieving objectives in this war.

Quote:

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New intelligence indicates Russia may have factored the U.S. midterm elections into its recent withdrawal of troops from occupied Kherson in Ukraine, CNN reports.

According to [url=https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-withdrawal-midterm-election/index.html][/url]CNN, Russian officials brought up the midterms in talks about when to announce their retreat from the strategic city, and may have delayed the announcement to avoid giving the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress material ahead of the midterms.

...

The CNN report notes that the midterms weren't Russia's only consideration as it prepared to announce the withdrawal, but that it was a factor though Russia may have overestimated how influential its announcement could be on the midterms.

The fact that the midterms were a factor at all, though, indicates that Russia may be hoping a Republican-led Congress or administration would be less critical of Moscow and less supportive of Ukraine.

Biden on Monday called the Russian retreat from Kherson a "significant victory for Ukraine" and reaffirmed that the U.S. is "going to continue to provide the capability for the Ukrainian people to defend themselves."

---

And this:

I imagine Russians in future generations will be really moved by the cenotaph reading “THEY DIED FOR THE U.S. MIDTERMS. REMEMBER THEM.” https://t.co/tHuNLaMPD8

— Andrew Exum (@ExumAM) November 15, 2022

Bonus Russian state TV (even their propaganda seems to be flagging).

The loss of Kherson has unleashed levels of discontent on 🇷🇺 state TV that I'm yet to see in the war

Maxim Yusin says Ukraine is laughing at his country, and that Russia only has itself to blame

He derides the TV pundits who claim Russia will reach the Polish border as "clowns" pic.twitter.com/cjrvUrR8SJ

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) November 15, 2022

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Countdown clock for how long it takes for the guy in the last video who did all the talking to be found dead in his home or to mysteriously have a random car accident that kills him?

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He will fall out of an open window.

Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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I'm reading / seeing stuff that indicates the Kherson retreat will have strategic benefits to Russia. The way they did it prevents Ukraine from pursuing them. Fighting in the region is likely done for the winter which lets Russia a) redeploy troops elsewhere and b) rebuild stock of armaments/supplies

Maybe. Then again maybe a potential benefit from an otherwise bad loss.

---

All I know is that every time the Russians lose territory in this war, some people (Cal88) are out there saying that it was a strategic retreat so they can regroup and come back stronger. And then they just lose more.

So color me skeptical that THIS time it's a brilliant strategy by Russia.

---

Retreating all the way to their own border would be a brilliant strategy by Russia. Anything else will lead to more misery and suffering.

---

This will never happen because Russia went into this "special military operation" to vanquish the nazis/woke Ukrainians and have not yet accomplished their objective. Anyone who thinks Russia has any interest in ending this dumb war would have to acknowledge that Putin had no real objective and was just hoping to steal a country. Even if the original argument was about NATO, Putin is far worse off than before with other neighbors joining NATO and NATO much stronger than it was a year ago.

---

The current NATO coalition is going to undergo some severe strains with the energy crisis looming this winter across the continent. Countries like France, Italy, Germany, Holland or even Czechia are not on the same page as Poland, Lithuania etc, and this rift is going to grow much wider, as will the rift between the current pro-war governments (Macron, Habeck, Baerbock etc) and the general public.

The only people who want to press on in an attempt to conquer Crimea are Ukrainian ultranationalists and western cheerleaders like you who have zero skin in the game, and who are also clueless about Crimean demographics.

---

The people that most want this war to be over are the russian soldiers that dont want to die in Ukraine.

From everything I'm reading and seeing, the Ukrainians are holding pretty steadfast to wanting to force the Russians from their land. They dont want a negotiated settlement.

Furthermore, Russia's decision to attack civilian infrastructure targets in lieu of military targets (because they can't hit the mobile military targets) with the iranian drones (because Russia cant produce their own) has only galvanized the Ukrainian population against russia.

Therefore I will reiterate my position, the USA should support Ukraine's war of independence for as long as they want to fight it. It is Ukraine's decision, and we should support them.

I also believe Russia intended to invade several other countries had the ukranian offensive been successful. Therefore, supporting Ukraine with money and material is cheaper than having Russia attack NATO countries and actually being drawn into a war with Moscow.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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They're not going to retreat from Crimea, or the land bridge they've taken, this is a red line for Russia. They will escalate their commitment, as much as it takes, to hold on and secure that region. By the end of the year, they will have around 450,000 troops available for the three main fronts.

---

Just bookmarking this for when Russia is forced out of Crimea.

---

I forget, is this one of his THERE ARE ONLY THREE possibilities? His positions and expertise change every third day and so I can't keep track. At some point you'd think he say, "You know what? I am just guessing and don't have a clue on these issues."

golden sloth said:

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

---

sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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I'm reading / seeing stuff that indicates the Kherson retreat will have strategic benefits to Russia. The way they did it prevents Ukraine from pursuing them. Fighting in the region is likely done for the winter which lets Russia a) redeploy troops elsewhere and b) rebuild stock of armaments/supplies

Maybe. Then again maybe a potential benefit from an otherwise bad loss.

---

All I know is that every time the Russians lose territory in this war, some people (Cal88) are out there saying that it was a strategic retreat so they can regroup and come back stronger. And then they just lose more.

So color me skeptical that THIS time it's a brilliant strategy by Russia.

---

Retreating all the way to their own border would be a brilliant strategy by Russia. Anything else will lead to more misery and suffering.

---

This will never happen because Russia went into this "special military operation" to vanquish the nazis/woke Ukrainians and have not yet accomplished their objective. Anyone who thinks Russia has any interest in ending this dumb war would have to acknowledge that Putin had no real objective and was just hoping to steal a country. Even if the original argument was about NATO, Putin is far worse off than before with other neighbors joining NATO and NATO much stronger than it was a year ago.

---

The current NATO coalition is going to undergo some severe strains with the energy crisis looming this winter across the continent. Countries like France, Italy, Germany, Holland or even Czechia are not on the same page as Poland, Lithuania etc, and this rift is going to grow much wider, as will the rift between the current pro-war governments (Macron, Habeck, Baerbock etc) and the general public.

The only people who want to press on in an attempt to conquer Crimea are Ukrainian ultranationalists and western cheerleaders like you who have zero skin in the game, and who are also clueless about Crimean demographics.

---

The people that most want this war to be over are the russian soldiers that dont want to die in Ukraine.

---

I think the innocent civilians who are being targeted in this criminal war will want this over just as much. Just losers and no winners in this war started because an egomaniac set up a power structure based on fear with only yes men who will give him only the answers he wants to hear and hide facts that contradict what he wants to see. He did this for his legacy. He will have a legacy, just not what he wanted.

WTH is with this dynamic where Putin is allowed to bomb civilians and infrastructure but if Ukraine hits the Russian interior he'll go nuke? Obviously nobody wants escalation but how is this allowed to be the norm?

Also, thinking about Republicans objecting to Ukrainian aid, at least partially because US taxpayers cannot foot the bill...what about a Lend Lease type program? We keep providing Ukraine as much aid as they want but they eventually pay us for it.

golden sloth said:

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As Thanksgiving approaches, let's all be thankful we dont have a foreign country invading us and stealing our children.

Below is an excerpt from the Institute for the Study of War on Nov. 16:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Prominent Russian milbloggers began circulating a multi-part documentary series on November 9 featuring several Ukrainian children from Donbas after being adopted into Russian families. The documentary series claims that Russian officials have evacuated over 150,000 children from Donbas in 2022 alone. It is unclear exactly how Russian sources are calculating this figure, and Ukrainian officials previously estimated this number to be 6,000 to 8,000. Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov additionally stated he is working with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova to bring "difficult teenagers" from various Russian regions and occupied Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Chechnya to engage in "preventative work" and "military-patriotic education." Lvova-Belova has continually advocated for deportations and adoptions of Ukrainian children and herself adopted a child from Mariupol. Forced adoption programs and the deportation of children under the guise of vacation and rehabilitation schemes likely form the backbone of a massive Russian depopulation campaign that may amount to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and constitute a wider ethnic cleansing effort, as ISW has previously reported.

---

The ISW is run by hardcore neocons and deep MIC moles like Kagan, Kristol, Liberman and Petreaus. This report is low-grade propaganda, very much like the previous wartime propaganda these types have served in the past - babies thrown out of incubators in Iraq, yellowcake vial produced by Colin Powell at the UN as part of the Saddam has WMDs and wants to blow up NYC, Gaddafi is distributing viagra to his troops ina mass rape campaign in Libya, Gulf of Tonkin etc.

Incidentally the lies about Gaddafi's troops using viagra to rape locals has been recently recycled in Ukraine:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-soldiers-supplied-with-viagra-to-rape-ukrainians-un-official-2022-10

Quote:

---

• A UN official told AFP Russian soldiers are being supplied with Viagra to rape Ukrainian women.
• Pramila Patten, the UN special representative on sexual violence, says it's "clearly a military strategy."
• She said the UN had verified more than 100 rape or sexual assault cases since Russia invaded Ukraine.

---

Only very recently has this lie, perpetrated by NATO and its moles in the UN, been exposed:

https://thegrayzone.com/2022/11/13/un-envoy-fabricating-viagra-russian/

Quote:

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UN Special Representative Pramila Patten has been exposed for fabricating her claim that Russia was supplying its troops with Viagra as a part of its "military strategy" in the Ukraine conflict. The widely publicized lie was recycled from baseless NATO propaganda deployed during its 2011 Libyan regime change war.

---

The truth is, Ukraine, despite having started up as the most advanced, wealthiest state in the USSR, has been the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. It has been the main hub in Europe for all sorts of sordid traffics like arms, drugs. organ and human/child trafficking, well before Vlad barged in this year.

There are about 3 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia today, mostly Russophones from the eastern/southern regions, nearly everybody in the Donbass has relatives in Russia, so it's not surprising that many people from there, including children, have moved there. The ISW is trying to paint this exodus as one giant child abduction operation by the evil Russians...

Cal88 said:

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golden sloth said:

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As Thanksgiving approaches, let's all be thankful we dont have a foreign country invading us and stealing our children.

Below is an excerpt from the Institute for the Study of War on Nov. 16:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Prominent Russian milbloggers began circulating a multi-part documentary series on November 9 featuring several Ukrainian children from Donbas after being adopted into Russian families. The documentary series claims that Russian officials have evacuated over 150,000 children from Donbas in 2022 alone. It is unclear exactly how Russian sources are calculating this figure, and Ukrainian officials previously estimated this number to be 6,000 to 8,000. Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov additionally stated he is working with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova to bring "difficult teenagers" from various Russian regions and occupied Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Chechnya to engage in "preventative work" and "military-patriotic education." Lvova-Belova has continually advocated for deportations and adoptions of Ukrainian children and herself adopted a child from Mariupol. Forced adoption programs and the deportation of children under the guise of vacation and rehabilitation schemes likely form the backbone of a massive Russian depopulation campaign that may amount to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and constitute a wider ethnic cleansing effort, as ISW has previously reported.

---

The ISW is run by hardcore neocons and deep MIC moles like Kagan, Kristol, Liberman and Petreaus. This report is low-grade propaganda, very much like the previous wartime propaganda these types have served in the past - babies thrown out of incubators in Iraq, yellowcake vial produced by Colin Powell at the UN as part of the Saddam has WMDs and wants to blow up NYC, Gaddafi is distributing viagra to his troops ina mass rape campaign in Libya, Gulf of Tonkin etc.

Incidentally the lies about Gaddafi's troops using viagra to rape locals has been recently recycled in Ukraine:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-soldiers-supplied-with-viagra-to-rape-ukrainians-un-official-2022-10

Quote:

---

• A UN official told AFP Russian soldiers are being supplied with Viagra to rape Ukrainian women.
• Pramila Patten, the UN special representative on sexual violence, says it's "clearly a military strategy."
• She said the UN had verified more than 100 rape or sexual assault cases since Russia invaded Ukraine.

---

Only very recently has this lie, perpetrated by NATO and its moles in the UN, been exposed:

https://thegrayzone.com/2022/11/13/un-envoy-fabricating-viagra-russian/

Quote:

---

UN Special Representative Pramila Patten has been exposed for fabricating her claim that Russia was supplying its troops with Viagra as a part of its "military strategy" in the Ukraine conflict. The widely publicized lie was recycled from baseless NATO propaganda deployed during its 2011 Libyan regime change war.

---

The truth is, Ukraine, despite having started up as the most advanced, wealthiest state in the USSR, has been the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. It has been the main hub in Europe for all sorts of sordid traffics like arms, drugs. organ and human/child trafficking, well before Vlad barged in this year.

There are about 3 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia today, mostly Russophones from the eastern/southern regions, nearly everybody in the Donbass has relatives in Russia, so it's not surprising that many people from there, including children, have moved there. The ISW is trying to paint this exodus as one giant child abduction operation by the evil Russians...

---

A series of organizations I trust that have reported on the Russia stealing Ukrainian children, forced adoptions and raising them as Russians:

the AP: https://apnews.com/article/ukrainian-children-russia-7493cb22c9086c6293c1ac7986d85ef6
PBS: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-moscow-takes-ukrainian-children-and-makes-them-russians
Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/7/ukraine-to-return-illegally-adopted-children-from-russia
The UN: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220908-un-evidence-of-russia-taking-ukrainian-children
The Department of Defense: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-719837

and most recently the Institute for the Study of War.

If these were one off reports I would be skeptical, but there has been enough independent news organizations and international governing bodies that I believe this is happening.

It also helps solve the long-term Russian problem of declining demographics.

Russia also has a certain history of disregarding human rights of the citizens of Ukraine going back to the Holodomor, if not earlier.