movielover said:
Haven't been able to keep up with our proxy war news.
Is Ukraine still bleeding men? Are combatants now chiefly Ukrainian and Poles?
Is Russia bringing 200,000 new troops?
Are we really low on ammo and other military equipment?
Ukraine has been bleeding men at a very high rate, 700-1,000 men/day in a desperate bid o hold on to Bakhmut, the regional hub in the Donbass, and site of their main fortress in the area. If it falls, the remainder of the Donbass becomes vulnerable.
https://www.ft.com/content/dcdd09bf-440a-4648-9664-6084b11dddd4Poland has had a large contingent in the war, and may have already lost around 4,000 men, some of the political repercussions from this are going to be felt domestically.
Russia is taking its time, grdually injecting the first half of the 350,000 new troops. These troops are not conscripts, they're reservists who have already served in the military, along with 70,000 volunteers.
This is the kind of somewhat static type of warfare they favor where their heavy artillery advantage makes a big difference. They might keep the slow grind going through winter and the spring mud season. Their main goal is to push Ukrainian losses past their breaking point, and at this rate, they're halfway there.
The main result of NATO's help has been to raise that breaking point, virtually eliminating the prospect for a diplomatic settlement. It doesn't change the final result, and herein lies the tragedy of this war.
At this point Russia has less and less incentive to work out a settlement, as they no longer trust their counterparts, especially with the recent open declarations by both Merkel and former Ukr. prez Poroshenko, who stated that Minsk II was just a temporary truce meant to give Ukraine and NATO time to arm themselves and reconquer the Donbass and Crimea, as opposed to the permanent peace settlement it was meant to be. As a result of this, Russia is going to go all the way, demanding a surrender on its own terms, much less favorable than what Ukraine could have asked for today or earlier this year.
The US/NATO have ordered 100,000 shells from South Korea a month ago, about 2-3 weeks' worth of ammo for Ukraine. Their inventories are running very low on shells and anti-tank weaponry, as well as tanks, FSU planes, the arsenals of Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia etc have been depleted, with high material and personnel losses having been incurred in the Kherson offensive. Russia has destroyed over 100% of Ukraine's original arsenal, most of its smaller current arsenal is made up of donations/purchases from its neighbors.
With this in mind, the Russians are probably going to keep grinding away, conducting a slow and steady artillery war where they have a huge advantage in fire volume and have a correspondingly favorable body count. They can further ratchet up their grip on the situation through taking out Ukrainian infrastructure.
