DiabloWags said:

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sycasey said:

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Rewarding Putin with victories for his unconscionable actions means he'll want to try it again the next time he has a problem with a neighboring country. Sure, you might stop THIS war for now. You won't deter the imperialist behavior.

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Bingo!
And this is the point that someone like Cal88 will conveniently ignore and never address.

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Cal88 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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sycasey said:

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Rewarding Putin with victories for his unconscionable actions means he'll want to try it again the next time he has a problem with a neighboring country. Sure, you might stop THIS war for now. You won't deter the imperialist behavior.

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Bingo!
And this is the point that someone like Cal88 will conveniently ignore and never address.

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There are at least two fundamental issues with this line of thought:

-this ignores the cost to the Ukrainian people, you`re trying to punish Putin by having hundreds of thousands of them killed or maimed.

-if you double down and escalate, Russia is still going to come out on top. They are fighting a land war on their own border and will commit enough resources to win. All you end up doing by escalating is giving Putin a bigger win.

We had a good window after the Ukrainians`successful counteroffensives, which took the luster off of Russian military prowess, had Russia on its backheel, and could have served as a good basis for a negotiated settlement where Ukraine would have had its most solid negotiating position.

We`ve managed to live with the Soviets, who were far worse than Putin, for nearly a century without a hot war in Europe. We need to get back into that frame and conduct foreign policy on rational and measured grounds.

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DiabloWags said:

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Cal88 said:

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Escalating the war into a full-blown confrontation between NATO and Russia also is a losing proposition (and incredibly dangerous on a whole bigger level).

There is no military solution for Ukraine.

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You sound as if you are disappointed that Russia couldnt just invade Kyiv and take over Ukraine within the first week of its invasion. So in your mind, it's Ukraine's fault for putting up a fight and DEFENDING itself and asking NATO for support. And that doing so creates an "incredibly dangerous" proposition on "a whole bigger level" is also Ukraine's fault.

Do you ever listen to yourself talk?

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oski003 said:

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Cal88 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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sycasey said:

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Rewarding Putin with victories for his unconscionable actions means he'll want to try it again the next time he has a problem with a neighboring country. Sure, you might stop THIS war for now. You won't deter the imperialist behavior.

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Bingo!
And this is the point that someone like Cal88 will conveniently ignore and never address.

---

There are at least two fundamental issues with this line of thought:

-this ignores the cost to the Ukrainian people, you`re trying to punish Putin by having hundreds of thousands of them killed or maimed.

-if you double down and escalate, Russia is still going to come out on top. They are fighting a land war on their own border and will commit enough resources to win. All you end up doing by escalating is giving Putin a bigger win.

We had a good window after the Ukrainians`successful counteroffensives, which took the luster off of Russian military prowess, had Russia on its backheel, and could have served as a good basis for a negotiated settlement where Ukraine would have had its most solid negotiating position.

We`ve managed to live with the Soviets, who were far worse than Putin, for nearly a century without a hot war in Europe. We need to get back into that frame and conduct foreign policy on rational and measured grounds.

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Let's say Ukraine and Russia make peace. Ukraine promises to not join NATO or allow NATO troops in Ukraine and maintain militarily neutral. The Donbass becomes its own Republic, which probably would effectively be a puppet of Russia. Crimea becomes Russian.

Is that the result we are looking for? Would that result embolden Russia to take more in the future?

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Cal88 said:

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oski003 said:

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Cal88 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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sycasey said:

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Rewarding Putin with victories for his unconscionable actions means he'll want to try it again the next time he has a problem with a neighboring country. Sure, you might stop THIS war for now. You won't deter the imperialist behavior.

---

Bingo!
And this is the point that someone like Cal88 will conveniently ignore and never address.

---

There are at least two fundamental issues with this line of thought:

-this ignores the cost to the Ukrainian people, you`re trying to punish Putin by having hundreds of thousands of them killed or maimed.

-if you double down and escalate, Russia is still going to come out on top. They are fighting a land war on their own border and will commit enough resources to win. All you end up doing by escalating is giving Putin a bigger win.

We had a good window after the Ukrainians`successful counteroffensives, which took the luster off of Russian military prowess, had Russia on its backheel, and could have served as a good basis for a negotiated settlement where Ukraine would have had its most solid negotiating position.

We`ve managed to live with the Soviets, who were far worse than Putin, for nearly a century without a hot war in Europe. We need to get back into that frame and conduct foreign policy on rational and measured grounds.

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Let's say Ukraine and Russia make peace. Ukraine promises to not join NATO or allow NATO troops in Ukraine and maintain militarily neutral. The Donbass becomes its own Republic, which probably would effectively be a puppet of Russia. Crimea becomes Russian.

Is that the result we are looking for? Would that result embolden Russia to take more in the future?

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Realistically speaking, the alternative if this war goes on, is that Zaporizhie, Dnipro, Kharkov and possibly Odessa are also going to be part of Russia, with up to another half million Ukrainian war casualties along the way. Ukraine`s best option is to take its L and hold on to 80% of its territory and start rebuilding, only ceding regions that were fairly hostile to Kyiv to start with.

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Cal88 said:

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Russia went into this war reluctantly.

They would prefer to have friendly relations with Europe, especially Germany, as they have mutually beneficial economic relations with Russia providing cheap gas and Germany industrial tech. It`s wrong to assume that Russians are somehow culturally predisposed to not value peace and prosperity.

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oski003 said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia went into this war reluctantly.

They would prefer to have friendly relations with Europe, especially Germany, as they have mutually beneficial economic relations with Russia providing cheap gas and Germany industrial tech. It`s wrong to assume that Russians are somehow culturally predisposed to not value peace and prosperity.

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Let's say Ukraine continues its programs effectively banning Russian language and culture in the now reduced Ukraine (without Donbass and Crimea). What is to keep Russia from claiming that it needs to invade to protect cultural Russians in say, Kherson?

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Cal88 said:

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oski003 said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia went into this war reluctantly.

They would prefer to have friendly relations with Europe, especially Germany, as they have mutually beneficial economic relations with Russia providing cheap gas and Germany industrial tech. It`s wrong to assume that Russians are somehow culturally predisposed to not value peace and prosperity.

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Let's say Ukraine continues its programs effectively banning Russian language and culture in the now reduced Ukraine (without Donbass and Crimea). What is to keep Russia from claiming that it needs to invade to protect cultural Russians in say, Kherson?

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No country in Europe bans the use of a linguistic minority's language, only Turkey does with its Kurdish minority, and that`s one of the reasons they`re not in the EU. There's also some similar problems in the Balkans around former Yugoslavia that have led to tensions and outright wars.

Ukraine needs to get on with the program, you can`t ban the use of a local language in the school system, administrations, media and public life, forcing a retiree from Donetsk to file for her pension in a foreign language or taking Swan Lake off the local theater. The sad part is that like in former Yugoslavia, the different nationalities have gotten along pretty well in the past. To some extent you can favor an official language, but you can`t suppress a minority language, or treat minorities like they`re second class citizens.

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DiabloWags said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I think the problem is that by engaging with people who amplify Kremlin propaganda, you can mainstream it and allow it to be elevated as if it were on the same level as you are, which it clearly is not.

I find that when I respond to posts that are filled with lies and misleading information without correction, it can serve to amplify the message. Rather than mainstream these disingenous bad faith views by dignifying them, I prefer to ignore and not provide them with more exposure.

Obviously everyone will take the approach they feel comfortable with, I'm just arguing that by engaging with people like Cal88, you may end up legitimizing his propaganda.

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Agreed.
As a result, I wont be posting in this thread anymore.
It's literally like all of the QAnon stuff that got spewed all over the internet in an attempt to "legitimize" their agenda.
Participating in this thread is simply providing them with more exposure.

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sycasey said:

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oski003 said:

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sycasey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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Before or after Russia invaded them?

It's wrong when the US interferes in Latin American elections and even more wrong for Russia to conduct a military invasion of Ukraine because they don't like their current government. More to the point: such actions rarely work out the way we want, in the long run.

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When you engage with a bad faith disingenuous troll you are just giving them more of an opportunity to provide false and misleading information. This is exactly the opening they are looking for in order to inject more lies into this conversation. If that's what you are looking to do, cool, but I would suggest you ignore the troll entirely. All it does is give them a platform to pollute the conversation with Kremlin propaganda.

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If I find a good way to inject my own argument/perspective into the conversation, I do it. If not, I don't. Very simple. I'm under no illusions that the pro-Kremlin side can be convinced.

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I have trouble having dialog with the Pro War side, whose only solution that doesn't involved Civil War is "Oh, Putin can just stop the invasion!". The Pro Peace side, which argues that Russia should be conceded Crimea and Donbass independence, generally has been more respectful and open to other's opinions.

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I do not concede that the people who want to give Putin the territories he wants are "Pro Peace." That position amounts to rewarding him for starting a war. What incentives do you think that creates?

Foreign policy should not be penny wise and pound foolish.

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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The restrictions and bans started out in 2014, that`s what precipitated the Donbass rebellion.

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Something else happened in 2014 that precipitated Ukraine getting stricter about Russian-language media. Does anyone remember?

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The Maidan Coup, a sort of Ukrainian January 6 with armed right wing militias which overthrew the democratically-elected government, act which precipitated rebellions across most of south and east Ukraine, including the secession of Crimea and the Donbass provinces.

The former was done without much of a fight, while the later has triggered a 7 year war that has snowballed into an all-out invasion of Russian forces.

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LOL. Man, you're good.

The real answer was "Russia invaded and annexed Crimea."

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Quote:

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Between December 12 and 25, 2014, Levada-Center carried out a survey of Crimea that was commissioned by John O'Loughlin, College Professor of Distinction and Professor of Geography at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and Gerard Toal (Gearid Tuathail), Professor of Government and International Affairs at Virginia Tech's National Capital Region campus. The results of that survey were published by Open Democracy in March, 2015, and reported that, overall, 84% of Crimeans felt the choice to secede from Ukraine and accede to Russia was "Absolutely the right decision", with the next-largest segment of respondents saying the decision to return to Russia was the "Generally right decision".

The survey commissioners, John O'Loughlin and Gerard Toal, wrote in their Open Democracy article that, while they felt that the referendum was "an illegal act under international law", their survey shows "It is also an act that enjoys the widespread support of the peninsula's inhabitants, with the important exception of its Crimean Tatar population" with "widespread support for Crimea's decision to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation one year ago". Their survey also reported that a majority of Crimean Tatars viewed Crimea's return to Russia as either the "Absolutely right decision" or the "Generally right decision".

From January 16 22, 2015, Germany's GfK Group, with support from the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives, followed-up their pre-referendum survey of Crimeans' voting intention with a post-referendum survey about how satisfied Crimeans are with the outcome of their referendum. GfK's post-referendum survey found that 82% of Crimeans "Fully endorse" Crimea's referendum and return to Russia, while another 11% "Mostly endorse" it.

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dajo9 said:

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sycasey said:

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oski003 said:

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sycasey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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Before or after Russia invaded them?

It's wrong when the US interferes in Latin American elections and even more wrong for Russia to conduct a military invasion of Ukraine because they don't like their current government. More to the point: such actions rarely work out the way we want, in the long run.

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When you engage with a bad faith disingenuous troll you are just giving them more of an opportunity to provide false and misleading information. This is exactly the opening they are looking for in order to inject more lies into this conversation. If that's what you are looking to do, cool, but I would suggest you ignore the troll entirely. All it does is give them a platform to pollute the conversation with Kremlin propaganda.

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If I find a good way to inject my own argument/perspective into the conversation, I do it. If not, I don't. Very simple. I'm under no illusions that the pro-Kremlin side can be convinced.

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I have trouble having dialog with the Pro War side, whose only solution that doesn't involved Civil War is "Oh, Putin can just stop the invasion!". The Pro Peace side, which argues that Russia should be conceded Crimea and Donbass independence, generally has been more respectful and open to other's opinions.

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I do not concede that the people who want to give Putin the territories he wants are "Pro Peace." That position amounts to rewarding him for starting a war. What incentives do you think that creates?

Foreign policy should not be penny wise and pound foolish.

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Neville Chamberlain was pro peace

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Quote:

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the country's national parliament, the Supreme Rada, has just taken a much more dangerous step. Lawmakers recently passed a controversial law that honors dozens of nationalist organizations including far-left socialists, monarchists, and neo-fascists as "fighters for Ukrainian statehood." The law states that those who "publicly exhibit a disrespectful attitude" toward these groups, or "deny the legitimacy" of Ukraine's twentieth century struggle for independence, will be prosecuted (currently no punishment is specified). While most of the groups on the list are harmless enough, among them are two the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) that were involved in the Holocaust and the ethnic cleansing of Poles in western Ukraine during and after World War II. The inclusion of these organizations among those that are exempt from criticism is deeply disturbing.

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⚡️The Guardian: Germany’s foreign intelligence service is alarmed by the losses the Ukrainian army is suffering in Bakhmut, according to a report. The army is losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) January 20, 2023

Including subtitles: pic.twitter.com/5UIP0u0woe

— Zlatti71 (@djuric_zlatko) January 21, 2023

A Ukrainian young lady attempted to drive into Hungary with her male friend hidden under a blanket in the rear seat. The situation is so dire in Ukraine that men hunted down for a draft to the frontline. pic.twitter.com/UEpxJeUz4a

— Stan (@Stan23387461) January 16, 2023

◾More on forced conscription in Ukraine. A father desperately tries to save his son from being dragged away by a Ukrainian recruitment officer. Place unknown. pic.twitter.com/CP83a4LPGa

— David R (@DavidRusskian) January 21, 2023

Forced conscription continues relentlessly in Ukraine.

Conscription officers are everywhere in the streets and roads, from Lviv to Kharkov (in the pictures).

They undoubtedly are trying to make up for colossal losses, so the NATO proxy war machine can keep going. pic.twitter.com/okkfBgUFEN

— What's the media hiding? (@narrative_hole) January 20, 2023

◾A check point in the Dnieper zone of Ukraine. But they are not checking for "collaborators" or "saboteurs".

◾ Ukrainian recruitment officers stop every car and handle conscription notices to the men. pic.twitter.com/wi0nvm8ZKt

— Prateek🎧 (@PrateekRoutray) January 20, 2023

Residents of the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine are trying to evict Ukrainian military conscription officers who come with mobilization orders. Armed men in uniforms of the Armed Forces of Ukraine came to the village of Ropcha and began issuing mobilization orders to the local men. pic.twitter.com/evJ0R7KnIz

— gfjkollpp (@gfjkollpp) January 16, 2023

This is the true reality of what is happening in ukraine. They are going door to door giving people conscription papers and leaving them on peoples doors, then they take pictures of them being left behind. The women scream and cry as their husbands and sons are taken. pic.twitter.com/u1Q4SseyTn

— Rebel06714 (@Rebel06714) January 21, 2023

Fact these are the uniforms piling up behind a military hospital in "bakhumt" at this rate Ukraine will need to start its 13th 14th 15th and 16th conscription drive tomorrow... pic.twitter.com/QHqvWRvNx8

— Mr Redcap (@DrGhastly86) January 14, 2023