Good quick 3min rundown on the conduct of the war by an Australian platoon leader volunteer, he describes what he has observed about Wagner tactics fighting them:
Australian mercenary: “Wagner is near peer.” -> He describes the overmatch in combat capability between Wagner and Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/TLiBiqrEZ7
One recurrently corrupt country invaded a burgeoning democracy for the purpose of controlling its resources, people, territory, and government. That aggressive indefensible decision has caused massive death, suffering, and destruction. Thousands upon thousands of people have had their one and only life on this planet terminated in terrifying painful ways that we will never grasp or ever have to experience. Loved ones have lost the ones they loved.
And what do we get here on these message boards thousands of miles away? Posts by a handful of those sympathetic to imperialism and authoritarianism giving their "rational" charts, graphs, articles, interviews, and opinions for why this was all necessary and not evil and the path forward to peace being capitulation...all these emotionally distant ways that shield them from empathy and humanity, and that attempt to cloak their adherence to tribal loyalty, propaganda, ideology, and opinions in which they are invested with this veneer of objectivity and intellectualism. But it is all whataboutism and excuse making. These events did not need to happen. Real people died and suffered because of the decision of one man who IS NOT a good and moral man with good and moral reasons.
You can pluck at keyboards for hours on end in the comfort and safety of your home, but if you defend, deflect, or attempt to reverse the narrative you are wrong and your position is immoral. I am so tired of this small handful of people who can't look at and correct the sickness of their character, can't take a stand for what is right. Go ahead and ignore this post and tell yourself that I am a bleeding heart or that you have some broader world view, but you don't--and the "objectivity" you believe you bring to this discussion and other world events are simply manifestation of the symptoms for which you and your tribe are the cause: imperviousness to human suffering and injustice while defending hierarchy and abuse of power.
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
Numerous world leaders have said the Minsk Accords were a sham, including Angela Merkel. NATO / US had been building up Ukraine for 8-9 years. We trained 400,000, while Russia had a standing army of 120,000?
Countless historians, academics, leaders and military types have said expanding NATO towards Russia was a red line. But you ignore that. You also ignore the civil war in four Ukranian provinces, the 30 militias, the neo Nazis. Many allege we overthrew a democratically elected President. More blindness.
Now, today, we don't even have a peace negotiator on hand. Zelensky went to Istanbul early in this conflict for peace talks, and Boris Johnson (US / NATO) ended those scheduled talks!
During all this, the Nordstream II pipeline was blown up. Days later the hapless Tony Blinken appeared to gloat. What a spineless incompetent worm. How does that help peace?
Apparently NATO / US saw the early superficial victories and underestimated the Russian Bear. It's very sad. Wagner has been successful, it looks like we didn't anticipate an artillery war, and now comes more death.
I could be wrong, Russia could be a paper tiger. We'll see. Somewhat recently Putin again offered talks, and he was rebuffed.
We've lost every 'conflict' since WWII. Interesting that there was no war with President Trump in office.
Guess who's set up to rebuild Ukraine? Blackrock. What group holds prominent roles in the White House? Blackrock.
Who paid Lloyd Austin $2.7 Million? Raytheon. Austin and Blinken should have been fired after the historic Afghanistan debacle along with many others.
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
If Russia gets the F out of Ukraine's territory and tries to negotiate without a military invasion?
Deal.
Donetsk is still being shelled today, has been shelled pretty much non-stop for the last 8 years. This is what the great majority of the people in the Donbass think:
“When there is shelling in Kiev they scream, “there’s no light!” We’ve been living for 9 years like this and the whole world remains blind to it.”
This Donestk woman, close to the front, was previously badly wounded when her house was hit. It’s a nerve racking place to live. pic.twitter.com/KIwG7xdB5d
We are so fed up with this Ukraine. They fucked up their own. Everything, the whole city of Soledar. They didn't consider us human beings, but what is it? They shoot at their own, if you figure it out, right?
Crimeans, ~85-90% of whom are of Russian heritage, and who have had their water cut off purely out of spite by the Kiev government for 7 years don't want to go back under that government's tutelage.
People in Mariupol, Sevastopol or Luhansk want to live in their own language, their own religion, their own cultural heritage, which is among the richest in the world. No other European people is denied that basic human right. Not even the Soviets did that when they rolled in with their tanks in Budapest or Prague.
What is going on with Arestovich (the advisor of Zelensk)y? Here he accuses Zelensky of treating ethnic Russians in Ukraine as enemies and of declaring war on Christianity.https://t.co/OwdvagYfPY
They don't want to be forced to use these stamps (which were just issued by the Ukraine government) that glorify the monsters that have massacred their grandparents by the million:
The Ukrainian postal service issued a series of postage stamps dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the SS division "Galicia".
When you burn the places of worship of a large minority in your country and treat them as second class citizens and subversives, when your government honors nazi war criminals with postage stamps, and large statues in main city squares, you lose all legitimacy as a government.
People like the parish of that centenarian church being torched or that babushka from Soledar who is so relieved to see the Russians come in, they don't want the Russians to leave. That's the reality on the ground.
One recurrently corrupt country invaded a burgeoning democracy for the purpose of controlling its resources, people, territory, and government. That aggressive indefensible decision has caused massive death, suffering, and destruction. Thousands upon thousands of people have had their one and only life on this planet terminated in terrifying painful ways that we will never grasp or ever have to experience. Loved ones have lost the ones they loved.
And what do we get here on these message boards thousands of miles away? Posts by a handful of those sympathetic to imperialism and authoritarianism giving their "rational" charts, graphs, articles, interviews, and opinions for why this was all necessary and not evil and the path forward to peace being capitulation...all these emotionally distant ways that shield them from empathy and humanity, and that attempt to cloak their adherence to tribal loyalty, propaganda, ideology, and opinions in which they are invested with this veneer of objectivity and intellectualism. But it is all whataboutism and excuse making. These events did not need to happen. Real people died and suffered because of the decision of one man who IS NOT a good and moral man with good and moral reasons.
You can pluck at keyboards for hours on end in the comfort and safety of your home, but if you defend, deflect, or attempt to reverse the narrative you are wrong and your position is immoral. I am so tired of this small handful of people who can't look at and correct the sickness of their character, can't take a stand for what is right. Go ahead and ignore this post and tell yourself that I am a bleeding heart or that you have some broader world view, but you don't--and the "objectivity" you believe you bring to this discussion and other world events are simply manifestation of the symptoms for which you and your tribe are the cause: imperviousness to human suffering and injustice while defending hierarchy and abuse of power.
Your post comes from a good place, that much is pretty clear, and this needs to be acknowledged, thanks for making the effort to express your feedback in a fairly heartfelt manner (even if some of the remarks about "the sickness of my character" are not so kind).
Our differences here boil down to two factors. First, your lack of understanding of facts like the ones I have illustrated in the post above, I don't think you're the kind of guy who would approve of burning other people's churches, or of a government that venerates real, bona fide SS leaders with stamps and statues. Those things are real, and they're quite significant, but these basic aspects of the Ukrainian political and cultural landscape somehow don't register.
The other factor is that being born and raised in America, it's incredibly difficult to be skeptical of high-quality wartime propaganda that is tailored to reinforce the narrative of American exceptionalism, of which the modern Ukrainian myth is an appendage.
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
If Russia gets the F out of Ukraine's territory and tries to negotiate without a military invasion?
Deal.
Perfect example of why an additional hundred thousand or more will die, sadly. Furthermore, the Russian military will become stronger, NATO forces weaker, and Colonel McGregor and others believe NATO may be on its last legs.
A high-ranking leader from Croatia (President?) just castigated the approach of "the West" and NATO. This is a self-created disaster.
Worse still, if Russia starts to crush the Ukranian army, the need for government to "do something". Will dim individuals like Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin propose the use of nuclear weapons? Russia has flatly stated they won't use nuclear weapons, but if they're used against them, they'll unload in return.
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
If Russia gets the F out of Ukraine's territory and tries to negotiate without a military invasion?
Deal.
Perfect example of why an additional hundred thousand or more will die, sadly. Furthermore, the Russian military will become stronger, NATO forces weaker, and Colonel McGregor and others believe NATO may be on its last legs.
A high-ranking leader from Croatia (President?) just castigated the approach of "the West" and NATO. This is a self-created disaster.
Worse still, if Russia starts to crush the Ukranian army, the need for government to "do something". Will dim individuals like Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin propose the use of nuclear weapons? Russia has flatly stated they won't use nuclear weapons, but if they're used against them, they'll unload in return.
There's no way a fair agreement can happen until Russia withdraws. While they're still invading, why would Ukraine or anyone else trust them to abide by any peace agreement? Even if they "win" this war, how are they going to maintain peace while occupying a territory filled with people who don't want them around?
Only way this ends with lasting peace is if Russia pulls out.
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
If Russia gets the F out of Ukraine's territory and tries to negotiate without a military invasion?
Deal.
Perfect example of why an additional hundred thousand or more will die, sadly. Furthermore, the Russian military will become stronger, NATO forces weaker, and Colonel McGregor and others believe NATO may be on its last legs.
A high-ranking leader from Croatia (President?) just castigated the approach of "the West" and NATO. This is a self-created disaster.
Worse still, if Russia starts to crush the Ukranian army, the need for government to "do something". Will dim individuals like Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin propose the use of nuclear weapons? Russia has flatly stated they won't use nuclear weapons, but if they're used against them, they'll unload in return.
There's no way a fair agreement can happen until Russia withdraws. While they're still invading, why would Ukraine or anyone else trust them to abide by any peace agreement? Even if they "win" this war, how are they going to maintain peace while occupying a territory filled with people who don't want them around?
Only way this ends with lasting peace is if Russia pulls out.
That's why negotiations start w no preconditions.
Henry Kissinger advocated land for peace 6 months ago - before flip flopping. Peace probably coulda been had for the 4 Donbas territories, acknowledge Crimea as Russian, and a neutral Ukraine with no NATO military force there. But folks like you find that untenable.
So hardliners in Russia will likely advise Putin to go to the Polish border.
Ukraine has already had 10-12 million people leave, and is more 'corrupt' than Russia. (Biden families back yard.)
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
If Russia gets the F out of Ukraine's territory and tries to negotiate without a military invasion?
Deal.
Perfect example of why an additional hundred thousand or more will die, sadly. Furthermore, the Russian military will become stronger, NATO forces weaker, and Colonel McGregor and others believe NATO may be on its last legs.
A high-ranking leader from Croatia (President?) just castigated the approach of "the West" and NATO. This is a self-created disaster.
Worse still, if Russia starts to crush the Ukranian army, the need for government to "do something". Will dim individuals like Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin propose the use of nuclear weapons? Russia has flatly stated they won't use nuclear weapons, but if they're used against them, they'll unload in return.
There's no way a fair agreement can happen until Russia withdraws. While they're still invading, why would Ukraine or anyone else trust them to abide by any peace agreement? Even if they "win" this war, how are they going to maintain peace while occupying a territory filled with people who don't want them around?
Only way this ends with lasting peace is if Russia pulls out.
Nobody purposely concedes their negotiating leverage prior to negotiating. Your hardline stance that they do so is the absolutely terrifying logic that is resulting in the massive amounts of death across Ukraine (yes, no deaths if Russia didn't invade). By all means, try to successfully negotiate a peace treaty involving Russia giving up all land occupied after 2014. They likely won't agree to it, and they definitely won't do such prior to coming to the peace talks.
Note on our long delivery time on M1 tanks to Ukraine.
We have to build them new. Why? We have a special composite metal armor on the tanks, which we don't want to give to Ukraine (hence, Russia & China). So we're building brand new M1 Tanja w 1970s armor for Ukraine.
Drop all pre conditions right now, cease fire, and start peace talks. Deal?
If Russia gets the F out of Ukraine's territory and tries to negotiate without a military invasion?
Deal.
Perfect example of why an additional hundred thousand or more will die, sadly. Furthermore, the Russian military will become stronger, NATO forces weaker, and Colonel McGregor and others believe NATO may be on its last legs.
A high-ranking leader from Croatia (President?) just castigated the approach of "the West" and NATO. This is a self-created disaster.
Worse still, if Russia starts to crush the Ukranian army, the need for government to "do something". Will dim individuals like Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin propose the use of nuclear weapons? Russia has flatly stated they won't use nuclear weapons, but if they're used against them, they'll unload in return.
There's no way a fair agreement can happen until Russia withdraws. While they're still invading, why would Ukraine or anyone else trust them to abide by any peace agreement? Even if they "win" this war, how are they going to maintain peace while occupying a territory filled with people who don't want them around?
Only way this ends with lasting peace is if Russia pulls out.
Nobody purposely concedes their negotiating leverage prior to negotiating. Your hardline stance thatthey do so is the absolutely terrifying logic that is resulting in the massive amounts of death across Ukraine (yes, no deaths of Russia didn't invade). By all means, try to successfully negotiate a peace treaty involving Russia giving up all land occupied after 2014. They likely won't agree to it, and they definitely won't do such prior to coming to the peace talks.
It's pretty simple: I don't believe Russia intends to have peace until they show they do. That would involve withdrawal. Until then I think any "peace" talks are just a delaying tactic for them.
Is that a tough standard? Yes it is. You earn that when you start the war.
Also, the first person to mention the "biological research" labs in Ukraine -- so dangerous the US feared them falling into "Russian hands" -- was Victoria Nuland.
But when some journalists asked: "Wait, why do they have those?", we were accused of Kremlin conspiracy theories.😂 pic.twitter.com/fVkbINnTbs
The new forecast by the IMF pretty much confirms the fact that Russia is winning the economic war. Its currency and economy did not collapse as intended by NATO leaders, who were hoping that the sanctions would bring such great hardship upon the Russian people that they would overthrow Putin.
After having predicted a decline in Russian GDP earlier, the IMF now predicts that Russia's GDP will actually grow in 2023 (at a modest 0.3% clip), and grow by 2.1% thereafter in 2024. Meanwhile, the average Briton, Frenchman or German is currently experiencing the steepest, most drastic reduction in their purchasing power since WW2. People are literally dying of cold in Europe.
This article covers the IMF prediction for Russia:
The long run forecast is even better, as Russia rebuilds all sectors of its economy due to the sanctions, sharply reducing imports from consumer goods, electronics, autos, trucks, passenger jets, machinery, while their exports of commodities like oil, gas, wheat, metals etc keeps going. I would expect industrial sectors that are more dependent on energy to thrive, sectors like aluminum, cement, paper, steelworks etc, as Russia today has some of the lowest energy costs in the world.
In an interesting case of realism bringing together two disparate camps, anti-war activists like yours truly and the smarter analysts within the American military think tank community, RAND has published a long report stating that the extension of the war in Ukraine is against American interests.
This report contradicts their 2019 "Extending Russia" study on taking out Russia, which advocated using its "soft underbelly" Ukraine as a tool to weaken Russia, the same way Afghanistan and Chechnya were used in the 1970s and 90s respectively. This is very much long the same lines advocated by US policy hawks like Zbignew Brzezinski in his seminal Grand Chessboard book, which also identified Ukraine as Russia's Achilles heel.
The summary of policy recommendations from this study outlined with the goal of weakening Russia, arming Ukraine was the highest policy priority:
"Letting the conflict extend longer, concludes a newly released RAND report, is itself a danger. The U.S. must avoid a long war:
Quote:
The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war's duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely.
The study (pdf) argues that Ukraine's retaking of territory Russia controls should not be relevant for U.S. plans. It has little benefits but high costs. Prolonging the war, while having some benefits for the U.S., has even more risk and costs attached to it.
Especially important to RAND seems to be that the war in Ukraine diverts the U.S. from starting a war with China:
Quote:
Beyond the potential for Russian gains and the economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, a long war would also have on sequences for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. ability to focus on its other global priorities particularly, competition with China will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers' time and U.S. military resources. ... And although Russia will be more dependent on China regardless of when the war ends, Washington does have a long-term interest in ensuring that Moscow does not become completely subordinated to Beijing. A longer war that increases Russia's dependence could provide China advantages in its competition with the United States.
The U.S., says RAND, can take measures that make a quick end of the war possible. It can press Ukraine to start negotiations and to accept a bad outcome by threatening to stop financing the war. It can encourage Russia to enter into negotiations by offering substantial sanctions relief. The reports final policy advice concludes:
Quote:
A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossibleboth domestically and with alliesand would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.
Vic Mackey would get tRump to give up all his Russian traitor sh@it 5 minutes into the interrogation. That taking the 5th weak sauce don't fly with Vic.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Is this true? This is the first I have heard of this. I wonder why it was kept secret if we were pushing peace.
They've read the latest memo from Rand (see my post above), which stipulated avoiding a long protracted war in Ukraine that Russia would win in all likelihood. Quote from this Rand report:
Quote:
The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war's duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely.
The smarter hawks in DC, coming from a purely realpolitik policy angle now advocate settling with Russia. Not because they are concerned about mostly Ukrainian casualties mounting by the hundreds of thousands, but because they are now realizing that Russia would get a bigger win and is better positioned in a long-term war than they've initially thought.
At this point only the hardcore ideologues and the people who buy the storybook narrative of brave Ukrainians eager to fight to the last 58yo father and are only a couple hundred tanks short of taking back Crimea are for the continuation of this one-sided massacre of a war.
This is a great case study of MSM propaganda vs the reality on the front. Compare and contrast:
CNN version: -Wagner is sending "human waves", experiencing very high rates of attrition -Wagner has very high attrition rates, dying at a rate of 10 to 1 vs Ukrainian soldiers -Wagner underequipped -Wagner/Russian morale is sinking
Reality from an Australian platoon leader who has fought Wagner in the Donbass:
Australian mercenary: “Wagner is near peer.” -> He describes the overmatch in combat capability between Wagner and Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/TLiBiqrEZ7
-Ukrainian brigade in the Donbass front "massively underequipped" -Wagner equipped with latest technology, including "blue force" tracking drones, artillery integrated combined arms attacks, -Wagner have numeric superiority and are "attriting Ukrainians", meaning it's not Wagner that is experiencing 1-sided losses -Wagner using effective tactics like infiltration teams -Ukrainian troops lacking MVGs (night vision goggles)/NFEs (nigh-fighting equipment) -Wagner "have taken very few casualties", taking full advantage of superior ISR (drone reconnaissance combined with heavy artillery fire to identify, reduce and then finish weaker Ukrainian positions
History Legends analyses the full interview of this Australian officer:
Logical. Anthony Blinken turned over $50B+ in military gear to terrorists, including night-vision goggles.
The longer this goes on, the less likely it is that Ukraine survives. One Million have fled to Russia, 8-10 Million to Europe, 150,000+ KIA, and upwards of 400,000 injured (estimated 200,000 w serious injuries). They're now effectively the size of the Netherlands.
Colonel McGregor made what was to me a startling point: he said the Polish army could beat Germany in a week. Their military has apparently gone downhill the past two decades.
He claims Poland is the only country that has a formidable military.
