Unit2Sucks said:
NYT ran an article about Russia's "offensive" that is factually consistent with other reporting and notes how different the results are from the propaganda spread by shills for months. While the pro-Putin crowd is trying to spin this offensive stalemate as a planned win for Putin, it is what it is. Even when it eventually takes Bakhmut, it will have accomplished less than it aimed to do in the first 3 days of this unprovoked war and is still far behind where it was last spring.
Russia has not mounted any large offensive, they are keeping large reserves on the margin in anticipation of a Ukrainian offensive, manning defensive positions (especially in in the south, but also on the flanks of Bakhmut) and positioning themselves for a counterattack should Ukraine spread itself too thin.
They are still relying on their artillery advantage, favoring a more static frontline, while still attriting Ukrainian high-value targets like AA systems, cannons, ammo depots etc.
As well the longer this goes, the more Ukraine's artillery capacity is depleted, both in ammunition and in "tubes", as NATO cannons like the M777 are not built to last, they're lighweight systems not meant for a war of attrition, contrary to the Russian equipment.
NATO is now sourcing shells from countries like Pakistan, Morocco, Egypt etc, in low-profile deals as these governments don't want to be publicly seen as supporting NATO, which is a highly unpopular position at home, but these governments and military officials are probably getting huge kickbacks. This however is only a temporary fix, the only mass producer of 155mm shells in the NATO camp today is South Korea, yet their production levels are still too small to come close to matching Russian volumes and Ukrainian needs.
Russia has also turned the table in Vulhedar and other fronts through the use of their 1,500kg gliding bombs, which are knocking down Ukrainian highrise outposts.
In addition to the gliding bombs mentioned above, they've also developed a cheap ingenious gliding strap that turns a 500kg gravity bomb into a sophisticated GPS-guided JDAM. They have tens of thousands of these bombs in storage, they will only be limited by the number of fighter-bomber sorties in using them, they are dropped from altitude by Sukhois from 40km out, well beyond the reach of Ukrainian AA.
This is a gamechanger, one that might prompt NATO to unload its cruise missile arsenal. F16s are not going to help much as they will be very vulnerable to both S-300/400 AA and to longer range missile strikes on their air bases. This situation means that Ukraine can no longer afford to keep fighting a static war, as now even their reinforced bunkers and tower positions are getting levelled with the 1.5T Russian barrage.