90% of bots are pro-Ukraine.

Well imagine that…
Researchers Find Massive Anti-Russian ‘Bot Army’ https://t.co/lqmjz9RCi8

— George Galloway (@georgegalloway) May 5, 2023

Haloski said:

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movielover said:

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Haloski said:

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movielover said:

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Haloski said:

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Cal88 said:

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This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.

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You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.

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Given that the drones look so small, could they have been launched from close proximity to avoid
detection?

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I believe that your suspicion that it was launched by the Kremlin itself has plenty of validity and concur that this is likely a false flag operation. This was a refreshing take from you and no amount of subsequent backpedaling you do can take back your original intent. Such an anti-Russia post from movielover was very unexpected.

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Alex, I'll take False Assumptions for $500.

My thoughts are either warlike Azov or CIA / Special Ops.

Let me guess, you think Putin has a fetish for blowing up his own infrastructure. Unneeded. He's already handled Ukraine and depleted NATO stockpiles.

Colonel McGregor has been warning for months that this proxy war could splinter off in many directions, and we don't have statesmen and Obama's Avatar isn't in control.

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Haha. Now you're backpedaling, as I figured you would.

Unfortunately, it's already out there in the universe. The internet never forgets.

You have spoken badly about Vladimir Putin and accused him of a false flag operation. I don't think that's the plan, and yet it's what you've done.

This is very sad for movielover.

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HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Exactly.

golden sloth said:

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An interesting speech from the Australian Institute of International Affairs and Richard Iron. He provides a strategic analysis of the current war the key points within the first 10 minutes:

1. Russia's winter offensive failed.
2. The territorial gains made were trivial and at high cost.
3. The primary reason for Russia's failure was lack of concentrated artillery support, and specifically a lack of artillery shells in support of their infantry.
4. Russia started the war with 18 million shells, and used 10 million in the first year. The Russian industrial base can manufacturer 2 million a year tops. Russia has therefore rationed their shell use.
5. Russia is also struggling with the logistics of supplying shells. The western himars forced Russia to push their ammunition depots farther from the front lines and the trucks used to transport the ammo are highly vulnerable to attack and now need to travel farther distances meaning greater exposure.
6. This resulted in high casualties on the front lines. The men supplied by the mobilization in the fall have been expended, and the new voluntary mobilization is not sufficient in replacing the losses.
7. Due to the high losses Russia has no or limited reserves on the front line.
8. Russia's current state does not mean Ukraine will be successful in their counter offensive.

---

This source is fairly typical of NATO spin-driven content. Here are some of the main falsehoods and elements of spin:

- There never was a Russian winter offensive, not because of a failure to launch, but by design:

Quote:

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Surovikin's strategy and mandate can be summarized as switching to strategic defense on all fronts, with the possibility of diversionary attacks and local tactical offensives to improve Russia's positions. Russia intends to build a solid and durable line of defense in the territories it has occupied in order to prevent any major breaches by the Ukrainian armed forces or any further shifts in the new borders.

In other words, Russia aims to put a stop to the intensive fighting before winter sets in, effectively freezing the conflict and retaining the territorial gains it has made so far.

---

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88301

Surovikin favors a strategy where the Russians exploit their huge advantage in firepower, a more static artillery duel where they have an 8 to 1 edge in volume.

2 - Russia's main goal in this war is to destroy Ukraine's army, plain and simple. It is the von Clausewitz military doctrine. Once you destroy your opponent's army, you will have free reign to impose your political will on him, and further territorial gains could be achieved at far lower losses.

Once again, there is where the biggest disconnect lies in this war, the real picture of highly disproportionate Ukrainian losses has been hidden.

3- As ML pointed out, Russia doesn't have serious ammunition issues, even the aussie analyst acknowledges that they still have up to 8M shells in reserve, with an annual production of 2M. And even at this production level, Russia still has unused production capacity and can ramp output up significantly within a year or two.

All of NATO combined has fewer than 500k shells on hand, and NATO's entire annual production is less than 200k, about 1/10th of Russian production levels. South Korea and maybe Pakistan have been the current stopgap supplier, but their supplies are limited as they cannot completely deplete their reserves, unlike NATO countries like Germany, Italy or France that have practically sent their entire inventory to Kiev.

Russia also produces currently more tanks than all of NATO combined, around 1.500/year. The Soviets had a production capacity of 4,000/year, so the Russians can even increase that current level.

5/6- Also addressing U2Sucks post above: Ukraine's capacity to strike deep into Russian supply lines is very limited, due to the fact that the Russians have been successfully jamming US_supplied GPS-guided HIMARS. This is a point that even CNN has recently acknowledged:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html

Quote:

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WashingtonCNN
Russia has been thwarting US-made mobile rocket systems in Ukraine more frequently in recent months, using electronic jammers to throw off its GPS guided targeting system to cause rockets to miss their targets, multiple people briefed on the matter told CNN.

...in recent months, the systems have been rendered increasingly less effective by the Russians' intensive blocking, five US, British and Ukrainian sources tell CNN, forcing US and Ukrainian officials to find ways to tweak the HIMARS' software to counter the evolving Russian jamming efforts.

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Russia on the other hand has high numbers of its own HIMARS equivalents, and along with Lancet drones and stepped up long-distance glide bomb attacks from fighter-bombers, it has been successfully targeting Ukrainian supply lines, which further aggravated Ukraine's lack of ammunition and military equipment.

Didn't Russia just hit a huge Ukrainian ammo storage facility?

The war isn't about numbers of artillery, tanks, bombers, drones, or any other gadgetry.

It is about the willingness of Ukraine to exist. As long as they are willing to fight they will prevail.

The sooner Russia realizes this the less death and destruction will occur.

If the Americans want a war, they'll get their war. Who can stop them?

BearHunter said:

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If the Americans want a war, they'll get their war. Who can stop them?

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It's unfortunate that reality doesn't unfold like simplistic memes.

Tucker Carlson axed, and now Kevin McCarthy doubles down on pro war.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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BearHunter said:

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If the Americans want a war, they'll get their war. Who can stop them?

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It's unfortunate that reality doesn't unfold like simplistic memes.

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Memes aren't simplistic. The left can't meme.

BearHunter said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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BearHunter said:

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If the Americans want a war, they'll get their war. Who can stop them?

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It's unfortunate that reality doesn't unfold like simplistic memes.

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Memes aren't simplistic. The left can't meme.

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Their sense of humor is rare. They seem to thrive more on victimhood, identity politics, and anger.

I've been away for a while. I'm caught up. The thread is like a microcosm of the war. Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth…no real progress by either side….no end in sight.

movielover said:

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BearHunter said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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BearHunter said:

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If the Americans want a war, they'll get their war. Who can stop them?

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It's unfortunate that reality doesn't unfold like simplistic memes.

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Memes aren't simplistic. The left can't meme.

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Their sense of humor is rare. They seem to thrive more on victimhood, identity politics, and anger.

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Yes, comedians are known for their conservative views. If only the left had a comedian as successful as Dennis Miller.

The right thrives on simplicity. Not humor.

Unit2Sucks said:

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I suspect we're going to need to load up the firehose soon, now that Russia's "offensive" is over, they're going to need to do a lot of dissembling.

Here's a heartwarming story about what happens when the freed convicts who manage to survive 6 months with Wagner return to terrorize their homes.

Quote:

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Over the course of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Wagner has recruited tens of thousands of inmates, including murderers and domestic abusers, to fight some of the war's bloodiest battles.

Many are believed to have died in Ukraine, but those who survived the six months in the group's ranks have earned presidential pardons and are now returning to their home towns. According to the notorious Wagner head Evgeniy Prigozhin, more than 5,000 former criminals have already been freed. One of those is Siukayev who recently returned to his home town of Tskhinvali.

Their releases have stoked fears that the men will go on to commit further crimes, worries that will only grow following a string of violent crimes perpetrated by former Wagner soldiers, including the murder of Tsugri.

...

Earlier this year, Vladimir Putin signed legislation making it a criminal offence to publicly criticise Wagner fighters or publish negative reports about them. Soon after, a Russian activist who revealed details of the burials of Wagner mercenaries killed in Ukraine fled the country.

And Prigozhin, a longtime ally of Putin, has vowed to help former convicts who have served out their contracts in Ukraine if they get in trouble with law enforcement.
...
One of those former criminals is Alexey Savichev, who returned in March to his home town of Voronezh, a city in south-west Russia.

Savichev, 49, a convicted murderer recruited by Wagner last September, fought for six months in Ukraine, first in the battle for the town of Soledar and, after its capture, in Bakhmut.

Earlier this week, in an interview with this paper, he admitted to killing and torturing "dozens" of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Back in Voronezh, Savichev said he quickly spent the full sum he earned while with Wagner roughly one million rubles (10,000) on "alcohol and prostitutes".

"I was drinking basically non-stop, I finally had freedom and a lot of money," he said.
Savichev described to the Observer how police in Voronezh would occasionally detain him for disorderly conduct late at night.

But, according to his account, he was released every time after showing the police some of the medals he received for fighting in Ukraine, including a presidential award for "bravery" seen by the Observer.
"The cops treated me somewhat like a hero," Savichev boasted, adding that police officers would invite him for tea to hear tales about his time with Wagner.

"It felt like I could get away with anything."

---

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So, they survived the front then? I thought you said these mercenaries were dying by the thousands? Also, this article is anticipating these pardoned criminals returning to terrorize their communities. You don't believe they have served their sentence? You don't believe they will be arrested again if they commit crimes as a civilian? Do you feel their disorderly conduct merits jail time? Heck, criminals in my community stealing catalytic converters aren't prosecuted.

NATO bombed a sovereign nation, targeting civilians with cluster bombs and depleted uranium, dubiously labeling it a 'humanitarian intervention'. Its actions in Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, and Libya prove it is not solely a defensive alliance.https://t.co/JPTmRUcuhO

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) May 6, 2023

movielover said:

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NATO bombed a sovereign nation, targeting civilians with cluster bombs and depleted uranium, dubiously labeling it a 'humanitarian intervention'. Its actions in Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, and Libya prove it is not solely a defensive alliance.https://t.co/JPTmRUcuhO

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) May 6, 2023

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Calling it Yugoslavia at that time shows an alliance with genocidal Slobodan Milosevic which is not the side I'd want to be aligned with

oski003 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I suspect we're going to need to load up the firehose soon, now that Russia's "offensive" is over, they're going to need to do a lot of dissembling.

Here's a heartwarming story about what happens when the freed convicts who manage to survive 6 months with Wagner return to terrorize their homes.

Quote:

---

Over the course of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Wagner has recruited tens of thousands of inmates, including murderers and domestic abusers, to fight some of the war's bloodiest battles.

Many are believed to have died in Ukraine, but those who survived the six months in the group's ranks have earned presidential pardons and are now returning to their home towns. According to the notorious Wagner head Evgeniy Prigozhin, more than 5,000 former criminals have already been freed. One of those is Siukayev who recently returned to his home town of Tskhinvali.

Their releases have stoked fears that the men will go on to commit further crimes, worries that will only grow following a string of violent crimes perpetrated by former Wagner soldiers, including the murder of Tsugri.

...

Earlier this year, Vladimir Putin signed legislation making it a criminal offence to publicly criticise Wagner fighters or publish negative reports about them. Soon after, a Russian activist who revealed details of the burials of Wagner mercenaries killed in Ukraine fled the country.

And Prigozhin, a longtime ally of Putin, has vowed to help former convicts who have served out their contracts in Ukraine if they get in trouble with law enforcement.
...
One of those former criminals is Alexey Savichev, who returned in March to his home town of Voronezh, a city in south-west Russia.

Savichev, 49, a convicted murderer recruited by Wagner last September, fought for six months in Ukraine, first in the battle for the town of Soledar and, after its capture, in Bakhmut.

Earlier this week, in an interview with this paper, he admitted to killing and torturing "dozens" of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Back in Voronezh, Savichev said he quickly spent the full sum he earned while with Wagner roughly one million rubles (10,000) on "alcohol and prostitutes".

"I was drinking basically non-stop, I finally had freedom and a lot of money," he said.
Savichev described to the Observer how police in Voronezh would occasionally detain him for disorderly conduct late at night.

But, according to his account, he was released every time after showing the police some of the medals he received for fighting in Ukraine, including a presidential award for "bravery" seen by the Observer.
"The cops treated me somewhat like a hero," Savichev boasted, adding that police officers would invite him for tea to hear tales about his time with Wagner.

"It felt like I could get away with anything."

---

---

So, they survived the front then? I thought you said these mercenaries were dying by the thousands? Also, this article is anticipating these pardoned criminals returning to terrorize their communities. You don't believe they have served their sentence? You don't believe they will be arrested again if they commit crimes as a civilian? Do you feel their disorderly conduct merits jail time? Heck, criminals in my community stealing catalytic converters aren't prosecuted.

---

It might surprise you to find out that some people survived the front lines of WWI too

War is going great for Russia. They clearly have no strategy and tons of in fighting. No command and control and no strategy of any sort is a great recipe for success against a desperate force defending the existence of its country and people. Now Kadyrov says he will fill in for Wagner in Bakhmut. He looks great by the way.

Many have asked to add subs to this one.
This is Kadyrov's answer to Prigozhin's decision to withdraw from #Bakhmut. Kadyrov says his units will replace Wagner soldiers. Additionally, he also lectures on multi-nationality in Russia. My translation: pic.twitter.com/4wjZdpSfjA

— Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 (@VolodyaTretyak) May 5, 2023

Gubarev (Novorossiya terrorist, Girkin's associate):

"When the price and methods of almost-capturing Bakhmut become known to the general public, Prigozhin will have to be called nothing more than the Bakhmut Butcher." pic.twitter.com/EE59BW7fPx

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 6, 2023

And Russian milblogger / propagandist / recent critic of the disastrous war effort Girkin sounds like he has to choose between a sledgehammer and Polonium tea for his final meal.

Igor Girkin is very pessimistic today. He says it is time to start thinking about preventing Russia from falling apart because military defeat is near.

Translation:

Regular readers and listeners should remember the assessment of the situation that I laid out (and expressed)… pic.twitter.com/HAsUjOFmyG

— Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 (@VolodyaTretyak) May 7, 2023

As for the controversial KIA numbers being shared on all sides, we are still deep in fog of war. I'm fairly confident Russia is lying since it always does and since the war would have been over months ago if it weren't. Here's a thread arguing the KIA to wounded numbers should be taken with a grain of salt bec drones are far more deadly than artillery and firearms.

Western intelligence insistence on a one Russian death to four wounded is very much an example of where this 'failure to accept reality" lives.

It is better for an intelligence analysts' career to be wrong in a crowd that correct and alone.🤦‍♂️

2/

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 7, 2023

Finally, this war and Putin's continued incompetence has done wonders for Russia's already massive demographics catastrophe.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 May 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/RwUoR1noSV

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/dpkV4CyZVP

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 7, 2023

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 8 May 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/q3q2D3qfib

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/fEVdSbv4Kq

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 8, 2023

Unit2Sucks said:

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U2S blah blah blah

Finally, this war and Putin's continued incompetence has done wonders for Russia's already massive demographics catastrophe.

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Russia's demography is in better shape than most European countries. Its current fertility rate is above 1.8, which is not spectacular in absolute terms, but much better than other industrialized countries like Germany, Italy, Spain, S. Korea, Japan etc which are in the low 1. range. As a reference, the current fertility rate in the US is 1.64.

Ukraine's demography issues are on a whole different level, the country having gone from 52 million in 1994 and 41 million before 2014 to 20 million today. You'd have to go back to 1970s Cambodia for that level of a demographic disaster in a country. Most of the people who have left and settled in Poland, Russia, Germany etc are not likely to come back.

Ukrainians started fleeing that country due to the rampant level of corruption and lack of economic opportunities in the 2000s, Ukraine being the most corrupt and poorest country in Europe due to its oligarchs, and that trend accelerated after the Maidan Coup in 2014:


Ukraine has had an incredible dearth of young men, and this even before the war, that's why a lot of the soldiers you see and the conscripts being pulled off Ukrainian city streets are middle-aged:


^This is one of the main reasons why Ukraine cannot win this war of attrition.

Generally speaking, you have no idea what you are talking about, you're just pasting material from pro-war propagandists like these guys above. If you had a basic grasp of comparative demography in Ukraine and Russia, you definitely wouldn't have brought the subject up...

dimitrig said:

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The war isn't about numbers of artillery, tanks, bombers, drones, or any other gadgetry.

It is about the willingness of Ukraine to exist. As long as they are willing to fight they will prevail.

The sooner Russia realizes this the less death and destruction will occur.

---

The war is being sold along Hollywood storybook lines, like a Star Wars episode with the Ukrainian army as the righteous rebels and Russia as the (evil) Empire, and with Bad Vlad as a Palpatine (funny how the most evil figure in that blockbuster movie saga actually has a Russian-sounding name!) That is why this Ukraine propaganda has been so effective.

The Force is STRONG with Zelenskyy #StandWithUkraineNOW 🇺🇦🇺🇸 https://t.co/mY5iQxddKx pic.twitter.com/m4fJM4LSVq

— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) May 5, 2022

The reality is quite different from the Hollywood storyboard picture. The majority of Ukrainians don't want to die for corrupt oligarchs, and as shown by every recent election held in that country, they want to get along with their large Russian minority, as well as with their Russian neighbors.





15 months into this war, Ukraine has lost over 200,000 killed in action, and another 250,000 wounded. Most of the Azov hardcore nationalist types have already been killed on the frontlines, most soldiers being sent to the front today don't want to die in a war where the odds are heavily stacked against them.

This war is being propped up by effective propaganda, but eventually reality will catch up with that narrative, Ukraine will reach a breaking point, its resources (not just men, but also ammunition and military hardware) being finite and having already been heavily solicited.

The other aspect here that isn't acknowledged is that Russia is also in an existential fight. NATO's ultimate goal for Russia is dismemberment, as outlined by Zbignew Brzezinski in his seminal 1990s Russian policy whitepaper, The Grand Chessboard, in which Zbig identified Ukraine as Russia's "soft underbelly" and main means to destabilize and eventually break up Russia:


Map featured in Brzenzski's 1997 Grand Chessboard book advocating the breakup of Russia into 4 parts, also published by the CFR's Foreign Affairs journal.

Breaking up Russia is the ultimate goal of neocons, and Ukraine is being used to that end, as outlined by the Helsinki Commission, aka The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, a US government agency:

Quote:

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Russia's barbaric war on Ukraine and before that on Syria, Libya, Georgia, and Chechnya has exposed the Russian Federation's viciously imperial character to the entire world. Its aggression also is catalyzing a long-overdue conversation about Russia's interior empire, given Moscow's dominion over many indigenous non-Russian nations, and the brutal extent to which the Kremlin has taken to suppress their national self-expression and self-determination.

Serious and controversial discussions are now underway about reckoning with Russia's fundamental imperialism and the need to "decolonize" Russia for it to become a viable stakeholder in European security and stability. As the successor to the Soviet Union, which cloaked its colonial agenda in anti-imperial and anti-capitalist nomenclature, Russia has yet to attract appropriate scrutiny for its consistent and oftentimes brutal imperial tendencies.

---

https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/decolonizing-russia

Other sources confirming the dismembering of Russia as the ultimate goal:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/is-breaking-up-russia-the-only-way-to-end-its-imperialism/2022/06/01/e1962c3e-e170-11ec-ae64-6b23e5155b62_story.html

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/after-fall-must-we-prepare-breakup-russia

The difference between this Russian balkanization plan and others like the dismemberment of Iraq, Libya or Syria is that Russia is a much bigger fish to fry, it's a pretty unrealistic plan, one that Ukrainians are paying for by the hundreds of thousands.

Unfortunately for Cal88, movielover, Minot, and BearFarce, Russia's spying capabilities have suffered a significant setback. It's a double whammy for these posters because the FBI played a big role in this win for America.

Yesterday, the #FBI led a multiagency, global disruption against Snake malware, considered the most sophisticated cyberespionage tool designed by the Russian FSB. How did we do it? Strong partnerships were the key. Read more: https://t.co/SCObI4uwp1 pic.twitter.com/MTsG3YhzBM

— FBI (@FBI) May 9, 2023

chazzed said:

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Unfortunately for Cal88, movielover, Minot, and BearFarce, Russia's spying capabilities have suffered a significant setback. It's a double whammy for these posters because the FBI played a big role in this win for America.

Yesterday, the #FBI led a multiagency, global disruption against Snake malware, considered the most sophisticated cyberespionage tool designed by the Russian FSB. How did we do it? Strong partnerships were the key. Read more: https://t.co/SCObI4uwp1 pic.twitter.com/MTsG3YhzBM

— FBI (@FBI) May 9, 2023

---

Great news! This isn't unfortunate for those posters at all though. You can criticize the U.S. role in the Russia-Ukrainian conflict without being pro-Russia or anti-USA.

Colonel Douglass McGregor yesterday again claimed 300K dead Ukranians and added a new insight. He states that Russia is superior in getting their soldiers medical care, reducing the impact of injuries, and getting men back into combat.

Where is our Military hospital core? You'd think we'd have a big presence in Poland to help Ukraine, and to give our doctors real-world experience. My understanding is that Military judicial care also, by necessity, spurs medical innovation.

movielover said:

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Colonel Douglass McGregor yesterday again claimed 300K dead Ukranians and added a new insight. He states that Russia is superior in getting their soldiers medical care, reducing the impact of injuries, and getting men back into combat.

Where is our Military hospital core? You'd think we'd have a big presence in Poland to help Ukraine, and to give our doctors real-world experience. My understanding is that Military judicial care also, by necessity, spurs medical innovation.

---

Ukraine has had a horrendous killed to wounded ratio, about 1 to 1, which goes a long way in explaining the very high number of KIAs, in the quarter million range.

tequila4kapp said:

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I've been away for a while. I'm caught up. The thread is like a microcosm of the war. Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth…no real progress by either side….no end in sight.

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Hey, that right there is about 10% of the entire reason I'd like to see this war end!