The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

945,902 Views | 10324 Replies | Last: 19 min ago by BearGoggles
Eastern Oregon Bear
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

oski003 said:

Big C said:

oski003 said:

calbear93 said:

oski003 said:

calbear93 said:

oski003 said:

I agree that the US paying to defend Ukraine indeed is a good ROI for countries bordering Russia. They spend way less money begging for aid and funding US politicians than it would cost to defend themselves.
I kind of view it this way.

Let's assume that you live in a small neighborhood. You have a massive arsenal and gates that will ensure that it would be difficult for any one to penetrate your defenses to commit a crime in your house. However, your neighbors do not have the means or ability to defend themselves while they are spending the amount that you, as a community agreed they would spend. There is a gang that wants to burglarize houses, rape the women living in the neighborhood, and run their drug operations in your neighbors' houses. You can just turn a blind eye and live with the consequences of your quality of life, safety, and home prices plummet while taking comfort that the gang members are staying away from your house since there are easier targets. Or you can band together, even contributing more of your resources, to protect your neighborhood. I would rather not live in a gang and crime infested neighborhood even if I have armed my house to the teeth and my house is relatively safe.


Can we make this more realistic and add the following facts?

1) the "neighbors" are actually in a different state altogether. In fact, you are separated by a handful of states and have to fly to get there.
2) the "neighbors" absolutely did not spend the amount of money the community agreed upon.
3) the "neighbors" have just convinced one of their actual neighbors, who was aligned with the gang, to break away from the gang.
4) now, you are giving $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and weapons to help your neighbors defend their neighbor from the gang.
I think the different state is not accurate. Crime rate in Florida has no real impact on me. Deterioration of the EU in favor of reviving the USSR has a significant impact on our quality of life.

The Eastern European NATO countries are spending the 2% and, in fact, are pushing to raise the target to 2.5%.

Not sure what you mean by the third point. Are you saying that the puppet government in Ukraine that used to be like Belarus and just another extension of Russia despite our promise that they would have complete freedom once they got rid of their nuclear weapons decided on their own to rather align with the West? If Hungary starts aligning more and more with Russia, does that mean they can also be invaded by EU?


European Countries, with the exception of Greece, did not spend the agreed upon 2% of GDP on their military until they convinced their neighbor to stop being allies with what they perceive as a gang. They are finally starting to spend and build a military because of the threat on their border created by Ukraine leaving Russia's influence. This also coincided with Trump asking them to pay for their defense. Obviously, you clearly think Russia won't stop at an "independent" Donbass and Russia being given Crimea, where Russia house their fleet that connects to the Mediterranean. I disagree. However, like I said previously, if they break this treaty (which they would clearly be a party to), NATO should make them pay dearly.

Kind of agree. I think Putin really wants Ukraine. Now, would he sorta like to annex some other countries? Possibly, if he could, but I think he knows he probably can't and doesn't really want them all that badly anyway. This is where the Hitler-Neville Chamberlain analogy doesn't work, for me. I recognize that others may disagree, but I think what Putin wants is a country that looks like the old USSR, from the nostalgic days of his youth.


He wants Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. We know that for sure.


3. Ukraine de-Nazified - or Russia will have to re-fight this battle every 5 or so years.

4. A neutral Ukraine with no NATO bases / military.
Did Russia have to fight a "Nazified" Ukraine every 5 years before 2014 or were there no Nazis there before 2014?


Russia did not have to fight a Nazified Ukraine every 5 years before 2014. The Nazis gained power in 2014 during the Maidan Revolution (where they helped oust the Russian friendly government and helped install the NATO friendly government). Thanks!
And then they elected their preferred Jewish president.

Yeah, but he's a JINO.
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:



The calculus is extraordinarily simple. Spend money now for Ukraine to fight or have American's die later in former Soviet satellite states that are now NATO members when Putin invades them.

If we are really worried about the money then make this a Lend Lease Program with extraordinarily generous terms for Ukraine to pay us back.

Bingo.
Ukraine is a "proxy" for the rest of the former Soviet satellites.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

oski003 said:

Big C said:

oski003 said:

calbear93 said:

oski003 said:

calbear93 said:

oski003 said:

I agree that the US paying to defend Ukraine indeed is a good ROI for countries bordering Russia. They spend way less money begging for aid and funding US politicians than it would cost to defend themselves.
I kind of view it this way.

Let's assume that you live in a small neighborhood. You have a massive arsenal and gates that will ensure that it would be difficult for any one to penetrate your defenses to commit a crime in your house. However, your neighbors do not have the means or ability to defend themselves while they are spending the amount that you, as a community agreed they would spend. There is a gang that wants to burglarize houses, rape the women living in the neighborhood, and run their drug operations in your neighbors' houses. You can just turn a blind eye and live with the consequences of your quality of life, safety, and home prices plummet while taking comfort that the gang members are staying away from your house since there are easier targets. Or you can band together, even contributing more of your resources, to protect your neighborhood. I would rather not live in a gang and crime infested neighborhood even if I have armed my house to the teeth and my house is relatively safe.


Can we make this more realistic and add the following facts?

1) the "neighbors" are actually in a different state altogether. In fact, you are separated by a handful of states and have to fly to get there.
2) the "neighbors" absolutely did not spend the amount of money the community agreed upon.
3) the "neighbors" have just convinced one of their actual neighbors, who was aligned with the gang, to break away from the gang.
4) now, you are giving $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and weapons to help your neighbors defend their neighbor from the gang.
I think the different state is not accurate. Crime rate in Florida has no real impact on me. Deterioration of the EU in favor of reviving the USSR has a significant impact on our quality of life.

The Eastern European NATO countries are spending the 2% and, in fact, are pushing to raise the target to 2.5%.

Not sure what you mean by the third point. Are you saying that the puppet government in Ukraine that used to be like Belarus and just another extension of Russia despite our promise that they would have complete freedom once they got rid of their nuclear weapons decided on their own to rather align with the West? If Hungary starts aligning more and more with Russia, does that mean they can also be invaded by EU?


European Countries, with the exception of Greece, did not spend the agreed upon 2% of GDP on their military until they convinced their neighbor to stop being allies with what they perceive as a gang. They are finally starting to spend and build a military because of the threat on their border created by Ukraine leaving Russia's influence. This also coincided with Trump asking them to pay for their defense. Obviously, you clearly think Russia won't stop at an "independent" Donbass and Russia being given Crimea, where Russia house their fleet that connects to the Mediterranean. I disagree. However, like I said previously, if they break this treaty (which they would clearly be a party to), NATO should make them pay dearly.

Kind of agree. I think Putin really wants Ukraine. Now, would he sorta like to annex some other countries? Possibly, if he could, but I think he knows he probably can't and doesn't really want them all that badly anyway. This is where the Hitler-Neville Chamberlain analogy doesn't work, for me. I recognize that others may disagree, but I think what Putin wants is a country that looks like the old USSR, from the nostalgic days of his youth.


He wants Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. We know that for sure.


3. Ukraine de-Nazified - or Russia will have to re-fight this battle every 5 or so years.

4. A neutral Ukraine with no NATO bases / military.
Did Russia have to fight a "Nazified" Ukraine every 5 years before 2014 or were there no Nazis there before 2014?


Russia did not have to fight a Nazified Ukraine every 5 years before 2014. The Nazis gained power in 2014 during the Maidan Revolution (where they helped oust the Russian friendly government and helped install the NATO friendly government). Thanks!
And then they elected their preferred Jewish president.


Yes, the majority of Ukrainians elected Zelensky, Russia took Crimea, and the Donbass rebelled. I don't know what candidates the Nazi militias specifically voted for.
No no no, this was part of the Nazi NATO coup. Haven't you been paying attention?


The Nazi militias were much of the muscle that physically overtook the capital in 2014, causing the president to flee. In turn, the far right groups got reverence and a seat at the table. That doesn't mean they run Ukraine.
How naive of you!
tequila4kapp
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Cal88 said:

The next escalation looming ahead in this war, F-16s piloted by US and NATO volunteers. The can of worms here is if/when they will use facilities in Poland or Romania for staging and maintenance operations, which would become Russian targets, potentially triggering NATO article 5...


Russia can put Nukes in Bulgaria but NATO staging F-16s in Poland and Romania is a worrisome escalation?
This thread is simultaneously predictable and fascinating.
tequila4kapp
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oski003 said:

tequila4kapp said:

oski003 said:

calbear93 said:

oski003 said:

I agree that the US paying to defend Ukraine indeed is a good ROI for countries bordering Russia. They spend way less money begging for aid and funding US politicians than it would cost to defend themselves.
I kind of view it this way.

Let's assume that you live in a small neighborhood. You have a massive arsenal and gates that will ensure that it would be difficult for any one to penetrate your defenses to commit a crime in your house. However, your neighbors do not have the means or ability to defend themselves while they are spending the amount that you, as a community agreed they would spend. There is a gang that wants to burglarize houses, rape the women living in the neighborhood, and run their drug operations in your neighbors' houses. You can just turn a blind eye and live with the consequences of your quality of life, safety, and home prices plummet while taking comfort that the gang members are staying away from your house since there are easier targets. Or you can band together, even contributing more of your resources, to protect your neighborhood. I would rather not live in a gang and crime infested neighborhood even if I have armed my house to the teeth and my house is relatively safe.
Can we make this more realistic and add the following facts?

1) the "neighbors" are actually in a different state altogether. In fact, you are separated by a handful of states and have to fly to get there.
2) the "neighbors" absolutely did not spend the amount of money the community agreed upon.
3) the "neighbors" have just convinced one of their actual neighbors, who was aligned with the gang, to break away from the gang.
4) now, you are giving $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and weapons to help your neighbors defend their neighbor from the gang.
The calculus is extraordinarily simple. Spend money now for Ukraine to fight or have American's die later in former Soviet satellite states that are now NATO members when Putin invades them.

If we are really worried about the money then make this a Lend Lease Program with extraordinarily generous terms for Ukraine to pay us back.
Your calculus only works if you think Russia will invade NATO, which is nuts.
Does Putin strike you as an especially rational person? He kills political opponents, invades foreign countries and threatens nuclear war at the drop of a hat. He is an authoritarian bully operating in a system where nobody can say "no", lest they are imprisoned or jump out of a hotel window. He will do as much as he thinks he can get away with.
Cal88
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tequila4kapp said:

oski003 said:

tequila4kapp said:

oski003 said:

calbear93 said:

oski003 said:

I agree that the US paying to defend Ukraine indeed is a good ROI for countries bordering Russia. They spend way less money begging for aid and funding US politicians than it would cost to defend themselves.
I kind of view it this way.

Let's assume that you live in a small neighborhood. You have a massive arsenal and gates that will ensure that it would be difficult for any one to penetrate your defenses to commit a crime in your house. However, your neighbors do not have the means or ability to defend themselves while they are spending the amount that you, as a community agreed they would spend. There is a gang that wants to burglarize houses, rape the women living in the neighborhood, and run their drug operations in your neighbors' houses. You can just turn a blind eye and live with the consequences of your quality of life, safety, and home prices plummet while taking comfort that the gang members are staying away from your house since there are easier targets. Or you can band together, even contributing more of your resources, to protect your neighborhood. I would rather not live in a gang and crime infested neighborhood even if I have armed my house to the teeth and my house is relatively safe.
Can we make this more realistic and add the following facts?

1) the "neighbors" are actually in a different state altogether. In fact, you are separated by a handful of states and have to fly to get there.
2) the "neighbors" absolutely did not spend the amount of money the community agreed upon.
3) the "neighbors" have just convinced one of their actual neighbors, who was aligned with the gang, to break away from the gang.
4) now, you are giving $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and weapons to help your neighbors defend their neighbor from the gang.
The calculus is extraordinarily simple. Spend money now for Ukraine to fight or have American's die later in former Soviet satellite states that are now NATO members when Putin invades them.

If we are really worried about the money then make this a Lend Lease Program with extraordinarily generous terms for Ukraine to pay us back.
Your calculus only works if you think Russia will invade NATO, which is nuts.
Does Putin strike you as an especially rational person? He kills political opponents, invades foreign countries and threatens nuclear war at the drop of a hat. He is an authoritarian bully operating in a system where nobody can say "no", lest they are imprisoned or jump out of a hotel window. He will do as much as he thinks he can get away with.

He is a rational, calculating player, that's how he's managed to run his country pretty successfully for a quarter century now.

Your perception of the whole conflict is entirely shaped by a cultural anti-Russian bias, very similar to the anti-muslim bias which has driven the whole Iraq invasion narrative, or the anti-Asian depictions of the Vietnamese before that. Same elements there as well, Saddam is a madman, we have to fight them there otherwise they are going to come here, we have to destroy them before they nuke us. It's a pathology that has been fed by the media, popular culture and think tanks, full spectrum cultural brainwashing.



We've invaded 50+ countries the last few decades, we're occupying 1/3 of Syria and stealing their oil, actively preventing the country from rebuilding and their 10 million refugees from returning home.

movielover
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What are you drinking? Russia has always said nukes were off the table, same for the USA.

Then Biden / Blinken (Obama / Hillary / Sullivan) take over, and they start prevaricating about nukes. Really sick and dangerous. I guess these diplomatic rookies think it gives them leverage or something.

Most rational people I've read estimate Putin will take the eastern third of Ukraine, giving him more security, ethnic Russians, a new manufacturing stronghold, rich deposits, and historically Russian Odessa.

Same folks estimate if the West keeps pushing, he'll go all the way to the Polish border.

Cal88: if Russia's integrated air defense systems are so great, won't the F16s be sitting ducks?
Cal88
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tequila4kapp said:

Cal88 said:

The next escalation looming ahead in this war, F-16s piloted by US and NATO volunteers. The can of worms here is if/when they will use facilities in Poland or Romania for staging and maintenance operations, which would become Russian targets, potentially triggering NATO article 5...
Russia can put Nukes in Bulgaria but NATO staging F-16s in Poland and Romania is a worrisome escalation?
This thread is simultaneously predictable and fascinating.

You mean Belorussia, Bulgaria is a NATO country, though one that is increasingly reluctant to escalate, unlike Poland and the Balts, who are fanatically anti-Russian. The Baltic countries have been actively persecuting their Russian minorities.




Russia has recently moved its tactical nukes into Belorussia to dissuade Poland from invading that country, NATO is preparing a second Maidan-type coup attempt in Belorussia, the first earlier this decade having failed.
movielover
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Could Woody Zelensky pass a basic Ukranian language test?
Cal88
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movielover said:

Cal88: if Russia's integrated air defense systems are so great, won't the F16s be sitting ducks?

The F-16s with the latest versions of fox-1 AMRAAM are a huge upgrade over the Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s equipped with older radars, though they're still a bit below Russian Mig-31s and Su-57s with R37 missiles in terms of beyond visual range combat. But yes the F-16s are highly vulnerable to longer-range S-300 and S-400 missiles, which can track and intercept them from 300km-400km out. As are the AWACS operating outside Ukraine managing F-16 sorties, those would become easy targets for S-400s in case of a air battle.

NATO would be able to try to conduct A2/AD suppression missions (SEAD), but they would need a large fleet of fighters, and would have to sustain large losses in order to make a dent into Russia's very dense installations, they have up to 9,000 anti-air missiles and hundreds of launchers and radar installations.

As well the other vulnerability of F-16s in this conflict is their ground and hangar installations, and the long 2km asphalt/concrete runways that would have to be built for them to take off loaded. Most of them would be lost on the ground.
Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

Cal88 said:

If Reagan had skimmed $100 million from state diesel fuel deals, you would have known about it.

You mean like Iran-Contra?

Reagan did not personally profit from Iran-Contra, that was a deep state/covert operation. Reagan's personal fortune essentially consisted of his real estate holdings, which as I've explained above, was an asset class that benefitted from incredibly high returns from the 1970s on.

The Central American policy under Reagan, overseen by Elliott Abrams, which resulted in tens of thousands of civilians massacred in El Salvador, Nicaragua etc and the birth of death squads that spawned the most violent gangs in N. America (M13 etc) was IMHO one of the main dark spots of Reagan's presidency.
Unit2Sucks
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This is a really funny exchange in response to one of the twitter threads I posted yesterday. What you will find is that the shills focus on blasting out ridiculous (often conflicting claims) and just hope that no one will ever call them on it.






Here's a message from Putin. I think it should be mentioned how impressive this public message is because he obviously has to go pee (or has some sort of neurological problem that causes him to shake constantly) and yet manages to stay on task with his anti-Ukraine messaging. Remember - anyone who has anything negative to say about Russia is a terrible bigot but it's perfectly reasonable to think that Ukrainians all all inhuman nazis that would be lucky to have Russia steal their country.



In fairness, some propagandists are starting to question the false narratives.




And for fun, here's some more evidence of pre-offensive efforts from Ukraine.


Big C
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Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Big C said:



Sincere question for my guy U2S: How long did it take you to put the above post together? However long it was, it must've been 10x faster than it would've taken me!


Not that long - just a few minutes. I have a decent memory and after blasting through tweets sent by friends, family, etc. it doesn't take very long to recall the interesting ones and post them with some commentary.

I know not everyone is interested in the daily back and forth so I don't put that much into it. Things should get interesting again for a short period during the upcoming counter offensive. I expect even more Kremlin propaganda than usual to crop up during that period.

Then there will be a lull where Russia pretends like it's going to have a real offensive and the shills will pretend like everything is going to plan and that Russia isn't further from victory than they were 3 days into the war.

Once Putin loses control of the domestic narrative in Russia, he will be forced with some difficult choices. Assuming his weird health problems don't get him first and that he doesn't accidentally fall out of a window or drink the wrong tea, of course.

You live in a fantasy world if you believe that Putin is going to be unseated from the Kremlin. Unfortunately, you are not alone, and are probably even in the majority who are being gaslighted on this war. There is a very strong appeal to this Hollywood narrative of Luke Zelensky vs Palputin that resonates with the western and American public. While the smarter elements in the general public are beginning to understand that there is no military solution for Ukraine, the majority are still buying the Star Wars storyboarding wholesale...

You can say a lot of things about Putin, but objectively speaking, he did come in and righted the Russia ship in the late 90s, which was a disastrous decade for that country, during which almost half of its population was pushed into abject poverty and social misery, with the country's wealth and resources being syphoned off by a western-allied kakistocratic oligarchy.

Russians who have lived through the 90s are very grateful for Putin's leadership, he lifted the country out of poverty, paid off its foreign debt breaking the classic third world debt death spiral, rebuilt the country's infrastructure, and yes, rebuilt their pride. Russia today is mostly a lower/mid middle class country with a functioning bureaucracy, a growing bourgeoisie and a shrinking poverty rate, currently at 12% and still dropping, a poverty rate already lower than that of the US, Germany, France, UK or Sweden, where poverty is now growing.

The trouble with Putin and his bureaucrats is that it turns out they are fairly efficient at running their country. They've anticipated the sanctions years ago and have worked to shield their economy.

Financial Times - How Putin's technocrats saved the economy
https://www.ft.com/content/fe5fe0ed-e5d4-474e-bb5a-10c9657285d2

The Russians have prepared for this war as well as they have prepared for the sanctions, which NATO thought would cripple Russia and destabilize the country enough to usher a regime change. NATO miscalculated both the success of their economic shock and awe campaign and that of Ukraine's military campaign, placing too much faith into high end wonder weapons that it can't produce in large quantities and whose efficiency was never tested against peer adversaries, while the Russians understood that artillery is king in the absence of air superiority, and have closed the gap in drone tech while developing their own wonder-weapons.

Currently Putin's domestic popularity is around 80% - 85%. Since 1999, his approval rate has fluctuated between 60% and 90%. Russia is winning the war of attrition without their economy skipping a beat, it's unrealistic to think that Putin's position at home is threatened.

Cal88, I don't absolutely disagree with all of your points about Russia (and part of that is that, frankly, I haven't been super up on the situation there the past couple of decades), but Putin's polling numbers?!? Yeah, sure, a "pollster" calls up some Rooskie, or shows up on his doorstep, and the guy is going to respond that he thinks Putin sucks. Sure.

One thing I can say for sure is that the Russian people have a centuries-long tradition of meekly accepting anti-democratic regimes, so yes, Putin might well be safe (though I wouldn't want to be one of his food tasters).

Props to that anti-Putin dissident, Navalny. Dude's got balls.

The polls were conducted by the Levada Centre, an independent NGO that leans liberal and has had a history of being at odds with the Russian government.

Navalny has run in past Russian elections as a far right candidate who scapegoated immigrants and Muslims, literally depicting them as cockroaches in his campaign ads:

https://archive.org/details/VideoAlexeiNavalnyComparesMuslimsToCockroaches

As well Navalny and his brother were convicted of fraud by a French court in 2014 for having emebezzled 26M rubles from cosmetics chain Yves Rocher.

Well then, Navalny's got balls and he sucks! Damn all them Rooskie leaders and wannabes!
DiabloWags
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The Saudis are getting pissed at Russia for not respecting the agreed upon crude oil production cuts by OPEC+ back in early April.

OPEC+ meets in Vienna on June 4th.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
movielover
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movielover
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???!!!

dajo9
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movielover said:






Nice of Trollstoy88 to promote Dick from state Senator to US Senator. Impressive adherence to facts.

From Wikipedia "(Dick) has made appearances on Russian, Israeli, and Chinese state run and Hezbollah-affilated media critiquing US foreign policy".
DiabloWags
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movielover said:





Every day here, you demonstrate how terribly ignorant you are.
Along with the "other" three people that star your posts.
Dick Black is a Virginia STATE senator.

Duh.

Dick Black (politician) - Wikipedia
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Cal88
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That doesn't change the fact that his statement is correct, Bakhmut has been the biggest military battle in Europe since WW2.
Unit2Sucks
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Couple of related points.

First - reports on the corruption scandal in the Russian MOD. Turns out being a corrupt kleptocracy has a big impact on your military bang for buck. I previously noted how the hypersonic missile scientists were being prosecuted, presumably to scapegoat them for its failure to deliver. The thread below talks about prosecution for the sort of graft that results in wildly underperforming defense systems.





And of course, the upshot from having garbage underperforming defenses, is that it allowed a wealthy neighborhood in Moscow to come under air attack. But don't worry, Russian propaganda has been really explicit with the media on how best to cover this and since they don't have a free press they are forced to comply.





It's also one of the reasons the Ukrainians have been so successful with storm shadow missiles. Russia is a paper tiger but it turns out that you can't just win a war with laughable propaganda.



dajo9
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Unit2Sucks said:

Couple of related points.

First - reports on the corruption scandal in the Russian MOD. Turns out being a corrupt kleptocracy has a big impact on your military bang for buck. I previously noted how the hypersonic missile scientists were being prosecuted, presumably to scapegoat them for its failure to deliver. The thread below talks about prosecution for the sort of graft that results in wildly underperforming defense systems.





And of course, the upshot from having garbage underperforming defenses, is that it allowed a wealthy neighborhood in Moscow to come under air attack. But don't worry, Russian propaganda has been really explicit with the media on how best to cover this and since they don't have a free press they are forced to comply.





It's also one of the reasons the Ukrainians have been so successful with storm shadow missiles. Russia is a paper tiger but it turns out that you can't just win a war with laughable propaganda.






I find that story about Russian corruption to be very dubious. More likely that Russian components would be "cheap" and "unsuitable " and that foreign components would be better quality.
tequila4kapp
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movielover said:

???!!!


MacGregor is an absolute idiot.
dimitrig
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tequila4kapp said:

movielover said:

???!!!


MacGregor is an absolute idiot.

He's a useful idiot to Putin.

How Russia Uses Retired US Colonel's Ukraine Misinformation for Domestic Propaganda

dougiemacbombsiraq
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Watch yourself, child.
movielover
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Cal88 said:

That doesn't change the fact that his statement is correct, Bakhmut has been the biggest military battle in Europe since WW2.


They can't see the forest for the trees.
movielover
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tequila4kapp said:

movielover said:

???!!!


MacGregor is an absolute idiot.


You mean a military historian and author of five books whose novel and new military strategies pique the interest of Israel and others. An actual field commander, not a social 'scientist'.

Idiot arguably and justly falls to the likes of Hunter Biden and Anthony Blinken.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

That doesn't change the fact that his statement is correct, Bakhmut has been the biggest military battle in Europe since WW2.

Why do you say that? (not refuting, just asking) Isn't Bakhmut a mid-size city with fairly limited strategic advantage? Wasn't the Battle of Bakhmut -- assuming it's over -- simply a battle of massive force against massive force? Why do you say it was so important?
movielover
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* shakes head *
Big C
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After your head stops shaking, tell me why the Battle of Bakhmut was so important.

Because we know that if the Russian army goes against the Ukranian army, straight on, they are probably going to win because superior forces. But why was winning in Bakhmut so important? What Russia needs to do is to take strategic areas and then hold them, long term, whereas Ukraine just needs to keep them from doing that.

Honestly, I am getting a little sick of one side here saying how Russia is totally winning... and the other side saying how Ukraine is totally winning. Partisan assessments?
movielover
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Big C said:


After your head stops shaking, tell me why the Battle of Bakhmut was so important.

Because we know that if the Russian army goes against the Ukranian army, straight on, they are probably going to win because superior forces. But why was winning in Bakhmut so important? What Russia needs to do is to take strategic areas and then hold them, long term, whereas Ukraine just needs to keep them from doing that.

Honestly, I am getting a little sick of one side here saying how Russia is totally winning... and the other side saying how Ukraine is totally winning. Partisan assessments?


Being the biggest battle since WWII is one thing, importance another.

Fog of war on hidden actual numbers. Believe Ukraine (NATO), or some believe Colonel McGregor. Leaked Pentagon Papers support CM. Ukraine outfitting soldiers in their late 50s or teenagers supports the same. Cal88 has gone into more detail.

Ukraine and NATO running out of standard military ammo (shells) is unquestioned; and massive shelling directly produces casualties and KIA. Apparently the west thought it would be a war w new gizmos, but Russia has unleashed a WWII classic artillery war, aided with drones. The Pentagon Papers show a massive ratio difference in casualties.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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movielover said:

Big C said:


After your head stops shaking, tell me why the Battle of Bakhmut was so important.

Because we know that if the Russian army goes against the Ukranian army, straight on, they are probably going to win because superior forces. But why was winning in Bakhmut so important? What Russia needs to do is to take strategic areas and then hold them, long term, whereas Ukraine just needs to keep them from doing that.

Honestly, I am getting a little sick of one side here saying how Russia is totally winning... and the other side saying how Ukraine is totally winning. Partisan assessments?


Being the biggest battle since WWII is one thing, importance another.
Can you name some other battles in Europe since WW2?

This is sort of like claiming we had the heaviest snowfall in San Francisco since 1900. There aren't many such events to compare it to.
Cal88
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Most of the stuff posted by U2S is absurdly false, he is so emotionally invested in the Ukrainian narrative that he has no truth filter or judgment on all things Ukraine, like the story of the 3 Russian rocket scientists being prosecuted because the Kinzhal hypersonic missile allegedly misfunctoned, that prosecution actually started a year or two ago. The Kinzhal has performed very well to date, and its production has been stepped up.

Meanwhile south of the border, our righteous allies from Kyiv have apparently set up some nice side deals with the Mexican cartels, who are now sporting the latest in US anti armored weaponry, the Javelin -Slava Ukraini!...

Eastern Oregon Bear
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dougiemac911 said:

Watch yourself, child.
Yogi, you used your first post on your new burner account to vaguely threaten someone? Seriously?
Goldener Bar
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Cal88 said:

Most of the stuff posted by U2S is absurdly false, he is so emotionally invested in the Ukrainian narrative that he has no truth filter or judgment on all things Ukraine
I object to you impugning the information provided by @ChrisO_wiki

On a side note, every time I see someone on Twitter who lists their Mastodon ID in their Twitter profile, I pretty much instantly discount whatever they have to say. These are not people looking for the truth, they're looking to support a narrative.
tequila4kapp
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movielover said:

tequila4kapp said:

movielover said:

???!!!


MacGregor is an absolute idiot.
You mean a military historian and author of five books whose novel and new military strategies pique the interest of Israel and others. An actual field commander, not a social 'scientist'.

Idiot arguably and justly falls to the likes of Hunter Biden and Anthony Blinken.
He has a proven track record as a military tactician. That skill is totally and completely unrelated to politics and the like. Many of the things he says are asinine, removed from logic and reality. He is the classic example of a highly educated person or person that is highly skilled in one area, who is functionally stupid in key other areas.

Promoting the idea that Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland and Estonia are going to attack Russia should result in MacGregor being put in a corner with a dunce cap on, never to be heard from again.
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