The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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BearHunter
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Goldener Bar said:



Nazis in Ukraine. You simply can't ignore them anymore. Not even the New York Times. Too bad the NYT can't come clean and be honest, instead, they had to be corrected by Twitter.
Cal88
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dimitrig said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Back to the "Spring Counteroffensive" news, at the beginning of the third week Ukraine has lost nearly 10,000 soldiers, a good chunk of its NATO armored vehicle fleet, all for a small dent in the grey zone, never getting to the Russian first line of defense, only to have Russia reveerse those very modest advances the last couple of days.

The Russians have made heavy use of their air force, especially their attack helicopters, with only one KA-52 damaged from well over 100 sorties, in which they can target a tank or AFV uncontested from 8km-10km out.

Over the last year plus, Russia has systematically focused on taking out Ukrainian anti-air S-300, BUK and now Iris, Gepard Patriot and NASAMS platforms in order to step up their air campaign. This, along with improved IR and EW countermeasures for their attack helicopters and Su-25s means that Ukraine is going to have a very difficult time putting together any kind of a successful offensive.

Report from an anti-Putin Russian immigrant war vlogger:



As I am on Ukraine's side in this, I kinda hate to say it, but one sign that the Counteroffensive is not going well for Ukraine is that a broadcast such as PBS NewsHour is reporting that the results are "mixed", or "50/50".


To be honest, it was ill-conceived.

Ukraine's biggest advantage is being able to be on the defensive in well prepared fortifications on home ground.

Russia's army is bigger and better equipped so you cannot go toe to toe with them.

Dig in and make them come at you. That is how they held Bakhmut for so long.

Maybe if there was an element of surprise to the offensive it might be effective but it had been well advertised. I am not sure I understand the point of it except to maybe probe Russia's strength and try to exploit some unknown weaknesses.

I suppose that if they don't go on the offensive at some point it will become a stalemate so maybe they felt they had to do something to try to strengthen their negotiating power.


The problem with a passive strategy for Ukraine is that Russia has been degrading their equipment through stand-off weapons, taking out with drones tanks and AA batteries 50km from the frontline and bombing any concentration of troops, bunkers or ammo depots with long-range glide bombs. That's part of the reason they've tried to push hard with their offensive, they have been losing a lot of equipment the last couple of months with Russia having stepped up their aerial campaign.

Also, as to the element of surprise, Russia has good intel, both from satellite surveillance and from human intel. Ukraine as well has extensive satellite coverage of Russian activities. Any significant concentration of troops is going to be noticed, especially on open fields.
movielover
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Naughty boy Scott Ritter notes that you need to have suppressing fire before you can successfully launch a counter offensive like this. Ukraine can't do this.

He notes that this is a political move - ahead of an upcoming June 11th United Nations meeting.

More propoganda from Petraeus, and pushing more Ukraine joining NATO talk.

https://www.youtube.com/live/v-FrWY5gjbk?feature=share

Cal88
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^ It's the July 11 NATO summit in Vilnuis, that's the upcoming big event for which they need to have Ukraine produce results they can spin as major victories. So you can expect more human wave attacks on Russian fortifications in the next two weeks. Apparently the Ukrainian soldiers storming their positions are being told that they are attacking sparsely defended areas, only to find out soon afterwards that they are under heavy bombardment with no support...

Petraeus claimed that Ukraine will make huge inroads towards Crimea because they now have western equipment and western training, and because the Russians are poorly trained, poorly equipped and also demoralized. The events currently unfolding are proving that he is utterly wrong.

Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe, also stated that the Ukrainians are going to win this war by "outsuffering" the Russians, that is the term he's actually used. These guys have access to the real intel, and probably know that it is the Ukrainians that are undergoing most of the suffering here, incredibly cynical of them to extend this war by manipulating the public, especially if they happen to have a financial stake in prolonging this war by being tied to the MIC..
movielover
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There are voices here that make claims that some are "Putin puppets", "firehouse of falsehoods", etc. So let's look at some basic points regarding Ukraine's counter offensive.

- Russia allegedly launches 30k to 60k artillery a day vs 6k artillery per day for Ukraine. We know that Ukraine and NATO are depleted, and Russia "only" has a 2-year supply.
- Ukraine's airforce is obliterated.
- UKR was going to launch 50k drones at Russia - it was either propoganda, or Russia's air defense stopped the incursion, bc there have only been a few strikes.
- Russia now has 3 lines of defense, and UKR hasn't even reached the first line.

Reminds me of the classic movie Crossing Delancy.

Cal88
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movielover said:

There are voices here that make claims that some are "Putin puppets", "firehouse of falsehoods", etc. So let's look at some basic points regarding Ukraine's counter offensive.

- Russia allegedly launches 30k to 60k artillery a day vs 6k artillery per day for Ukraine. We know that Ukraine and NATO are depleted, and Russia "only" has a 2-year supply.
- Ukraine's airforce is obliterated.
- UKR was going to launch 50k drones at Russia - it was either propoganda, or Russia's air defense stopped the incursion, bc there have only been a few strikes.
- Russia now has 3 lines of defense, and UKR hasn't even reached the first line.

Reminds me of the classic movie Crossing Delancy.


Russia currently produces 2.5 million shells/yr, they have a limitless supply. They also produce more tanks, missiles and drones than all of NATO combined. The factory where Lancet drones are assembled is made up of two buildings, each about the size of 2 1/2 football fields.

IIRC Russia is neutralizing up to 10,000 Ukrainian drones per month (number published in the MSM), via electronic warfare. Most of these are commercial-grade Chinese quads that are easy to jam.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-losing-10000-drones-month-russia-electronic-warfare-rusi-report-2023-5

Russia has 4 lines of defense across most of its southern flank, Ukraine has lost 10,000+ soldiers since June 4th without ever reaching the first line. Most of the small gains they've had in the grey zone were pushed back. This area is set up by design as a "kill zone", areas where the Russians want to channel Ukrainian troops in order to annihilate them via concentrated artillery fire, and drones/attack helicopters for armored vehicles.

The next desperate move for Ukraine, after blowing up the dam, might be to bomb the nuclear powerplant near Zaporozhie, which they will then blame on the Russians, because well that's what Russians do, blow up their pipelines, dams and nuclear powerplants, those Russians just can't help themselves...
movielover
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Any key military moves, I surmise, are either approved or suggested by our IC / MIC.
AunBear89
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Rand Paul is not a credible source for anything in the world.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
Cal88
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Ukraine has declared general mobilization for all men 18 and over, in most cities including Kiev and even western cities like Ivano-Frankivsk. They're about to build their 4th army.



There's going to be a lot more of this in the days and weeks to come:
(warning - a bit of violence in forced conscription videos below between soldiers and their targets)


Not all Ukrainian forced conscription stories have the same ending though:

movielover
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This is beyond absurd, Zelensky continues to march men to certain death or mutilation. When do Ukranian men:

- organize a resistance?
- go for a talk with Zelensky?
BearHunter
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Cal88 said:

Ukraine has declared general mobilization for all men 18 and over, in most cities including Kiev and even western cities like Ivano-Frankivsk. They're about to build their 4th army.
Is this the major counter-offensive we've been hearing about?
movielover
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My guess is no. They'll be forcibly detained, trained for 2 - 8 weeks, and slaughtered in days or weeks.
Cal88
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As done with previous high-risk battles like Bakhmut, they usually send these poorly trained and motivated conscripts on missions that might almost qualify as suicide missions, with a Stalin-like line of enforcers behind them, ready to shoot those who attempt to surrender to the Russians. There has been some footage of Ukrainian soldiers being shot from behind while moving across the frontline trying to surrender.

There is a militia kernel of around 100,000-150,000 hardcore nationalists, most of whom are kept away from the Russian meat grinder and are there in the cities to make sure that the locals don't rebel, especially in Russophone cities like Kharkov, Odessa or Dnipro, as well as in the capital Kiev. Ukraine did use (and lose) a lot of the reconstituted Azov Battalion in the battle of Bakhmut, but the bulk of these ideologically-compliant militias are used to keep holding the Kiev regime together as the losses mount and potential dissent grows.

Meanwhile Ukrainian true believers are kept on the program through a domestic media propaganda barrage, and the fact that western media is also hiding or massaging the facts is helping the domestic narrative, example:


There are cracks at the top, with for instance longtime Maydan operator and Kiev mayor Klitchko being targeted by the Zelensky regime:


Commander in chief Zaluzhny has as well been sidelined, he was said to be opposed to the conduct of a frontal attack on southern reinforced Russian lines without sufficient air and artillery support.

The results are in 3 weeks into the Counteroffensive, over 10,000 casualties for Ukraine, and they've barely made a dent into the Russian lines of defense:



I would have thought Ukraine could have made some advances towards Tokmak, the key stronghold shown at the bottom of the map here (city within the larger ring of fortifications). Local hub Tokmak is the Bakhmut of the region. It might take Ukraine over 100,000 KIAs to get there at this point, I am not sure if they are ready to embark on an even bigger meat grinder than Bakhmut, especially given that the Russian loss ratio will be even smaller than in Bakhmut as they are well dug-in.
Cal88
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Updated Ukrainian casualty figures for the counteroffensive are 15k KIA, about the same amount wounded, and 260 tanks destroyed, per Col. Macgregor. Now we know why Ukraine has just issued a general mobilization, they went through 30,000 soldiers in less than 3 weeks...



Other points from Macgregor:
-The Ukrainians are playing into the Russians' hand, doing exactly what the Russians expected
-Ukrainians are hampered by their politically-driven military leadership, pushed to attack the Russian defensive lines head on with very little chance of breaching them *
-Gen Hodges and Petraeus are self-deluded and dangerously unrestrained/irresponsible in their call for escalation. NATO is driven by ideology, will fight to the last Ukrainian
-The Russians are competent, well led, efficient use of artillery, have held back, might be setting up their own counteroffensive

*There seems to be a leadership void at the top of Ukraine's military structure, with the more pragmatic Gen. Zaluzhny having been sidelined since May. The Ukrainians have also lost a lot of experienced mid-level officers, which are hard to replace.
DiabloWags
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Leader of the Wagner Mercenary Group says that Russia attacked his forces.

Wagner's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio message on Friday claimed his forces would now punish Russia's defense minister and chief of general staff, telling other units to stand down and not offer resistance.

"There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out. ... Those who want to join us, it's time to finish with this mess," Prigozhin said.

Oh boy!



Wagner mercenary chief calls for armed rebellion against Russian military leadership (yahoo.com)
DiabloWags
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AunBear89 said:

Rand Paul is not a credible source for anything in the world.

Only a TOTAL MORON would quote Rand Paul.

I can only guess.

lol
dimitrig
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DiabloWags said:

Leader of the Wagner Mercenary Group says that Russia attacked his forces.

Wagner's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio message on Friday claimed his forces would now punish Russia's defense minister and chief of general staff, telling other units to stand down and not offer resistance.

"There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out. ... Those who want to join us, it's time to finish with this mess," Prigozhin said.

Oh boy!



Wagner mercenary chief calls for armed rebellion against Russian military leadership (yahoo.com)


Prigozhin has denied this is a "military coup" calling it a "march for justice."
"They neglect the lives of soldiers, they forgot the word 'justice,' and we will return it," Prigozhin said in the video. "Therefore, those who destroyed our guys today, and tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished."

[...]

Prigozhin also said in Friday's video that the two goals Putin announced at the start of the war the "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukrainewere "pretty stories."

Instead, he blamed Shoigu, the defense ministry and a "clan of oligarchs" for starting the war. He accused Shoigu of seeking glory and wanting "to rob" Ukraine and divide up its assets.

[...]

"On the ground now, today, the Russian army is retreating on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions," Prigozhin said in Friday's video. He added that Ukrainian forces were advancing "deeper and deeper and deeper into our defenses" around Bakhmut, which his Wagner forces helped capture weeks ago.

Cal88
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Prigozhin is kind of a Russian Lou Holtz crossed with Mike Leach, he has consistently been prone to hyperbole and over the top speeches. He likes being in the limelight and also seem to have political ambitions, though Putin is in pretty good shape for his age, reports about his health from last year are wartime propaganda. Prigozhin 's probably a bit too "colorful" for the Russians who favor a steadier type of leader.

The allegations of a Wagner-led coup are a typical wartime psyop, especially coming during the month where Russia has had the biggest military success since the start of the war, thanks to the current tone deaf Ukrainian military leadership.
Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

AunBear89 said:

Rand Paul is not a credible source for anything in the world.

Only a TOTAL MORON would quote Rand Paul.

I can only guess.

lol

The Rand Paul quote above, which I am reposting here, is absolutely spot on. Regardless of what you might think of him, Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe and much of the military aid provided in kind or financially has been siphoned off.

Paul's call for greater scrutiny and accountability in the financing and arming of Ukraine is simply common sense. It is kind of staggering that you guys are so damn politically polarized that you would reject his call for accountability, based purely on partisanship...

Quote:

[url=https://twitter.com/RandPaul][/url]@ RandPaul

The good news is that Ukraine caught their highest judge hiding some of his more than $2 million in bribes in pickle jars. The bad news is that Ukraine, consistently ranked as one of the most corrupt nations on the planet, still has high-ranking officials robbing it blind.

This might be a salient point when Ukraine returns to Congress to beg for more US taxpayer funds. Why won't Democrats accept my call for a Special Inspector General to oversee the billions we send to Ukraine?

movielover
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DiabloWags said:

AunBear89 said:

Rand Paul is not a credible source for anything in the world.

Only a TOTAL MORON would quote Rand Paul.

I can only guess.

lol



#1 name caller on BI.
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:



Paul's call for greater scrutiny and accountability in the financing and arming of Ukraine is simply common sense. It is kind of staggering that you guys are so damn politically polarized that you would reject his call for accountability, based purely on partisanship...

Quote:

[url=https://twitter.com/RandPaul][/url]


Rand Paul has been pounding the table (for years) about auditing the Federal Reserve.
That's never gonna happen.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:





#1 name caller on BI.

Coming from the #2 Troll on Bearinsider, your comment carries a lot of weight.
Not.

bearister
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Wagner mercenaries march on Moscow amid civil war fears



https://mol.im/a/12228381
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MinotStateBeav
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Somethings going on dude, time to admit things aren't that great with Russia. Prigozhin sounds like he wants to Coup. They have a convoy 50km long heading toward Moscow apparently and the Rosgvardia have been ordered to stop them. Now could this all be BS? Yeah, nothing is what it seems in this war a lot of times. But going off many different sources, it seems to be true.

If Russia starts pulling their army off the front line in Ukraine to run back to Moscow to protect it against the Wagner PMC, Ukraine could completely take over their country in a very very fast timeline.
Cal88
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MinotStateBeav said:

Somethings going on dude, time to admit things aren't that great with Russia. Prigozhin sounds like he wants to Coup. They have a convoy 50km long heading toward Moscow apparently and the Rosgvardia have been ordered to stop them. Now could this all be BS? Yeah, nothing is what it seems in this war a lot of times. But going off many different sources, it seems to be true.

Agreed, general Surovikin just came out with a statement that confirms this:

DiabloWags
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bearister said:

Wagner mercenaries march on Moscow amid civil war fears

https://mol.im/a/12228381


Yup.

Am watching Russian Military Vehicles being scrambled across the streets of Moscow on CNN, put out by Reuters.

Im sure Putin88 will have a positive take on this.

"Dont worry, Rostov is 200 miles away from Moscow"



MinotStateBeav
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I watched that earlier, looked like a hostage video to be quite honest. I wonder if the average Russian soldier doesn't actually support Prigozhin. Since he was there on the lines with them mostly. The Russian generals were more than 100km back from the fighting.
Cal88
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A lot of conflicting and confusing info right now, I guess we'll find out soon enough what is really going on.
Unit2Sucks
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I'm sure we can trust the russian shills to give us the straight dope on Prigozhin. I've been calling out his strife with Shoigu and the Kremlin for months now and from what I can recall from prominent Russian shills they tend to either ignore the issue entirely or pretend that he's just uttering false flag info in concert with the Kremlin to give the appearance of disarray lol.

Remember these are the same people who told us that Budanov was killed by Russian missiles several times already.



Ditto for Zaluzhny. Although perhaps they get extra credit for pretending they killed him and then blaming him for the lack of early success in the current offensive.



dajo9
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Cal88 said:

A lot of conflicting and confusing info right now, I guess we'll find out soon enough what is really going on.


If the check bounces, let us know
movielover
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dimitrig
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sonofabear51
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Just admit that you guys suck! That would be a start! And then go away.
Start Slowly and taper off
concordtom
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movielover said:

DiabloWags said:

AunBear89 said:

Rand Paul is not a credible source for anything in the world.

Only a TOTAL MORON would quote Rand Paul.

I can only guess.

lol



#1 name caller on BI.


Actually, I agree with the generalized statement. Rand Paul is a JOKE!
bearister
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Wagner mercenaries storm Rostov-on-Don as Kremlin warns of CIVIL WAR



https://mol.im/a/12228381
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