The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

942,099 Views | 10279 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by Eastern Oregon Bear
oski003
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I read it. It is a firehose of NATO propaganda. I still don't understand how they will do it and why it is taking so long, absent they simply don't have the firepower to do it. I imagine this is where future clusterbombs and f16s come ins, in hopes that more weaponry will tip the scale in Ukraine's favor.
Cal88
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bearister said:

"However, one thing that sets this system apart from the usual cluster munitions is that they are capable of disabling these mines remotely, either actively, or by pre-programming the duration of these mines' lives."

In light of all the Russian troops that have been slaughtered in the Ukraine, whatya reckon the odds are of Putin authorizing the disabling feature after hostilities cease?

Cal88, I don't poo poo any analysis of the conflict. Do you have too many sources to list for the basis of your essay? As I said, the truth will reveal itself eventually.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive focused on the south has resulted in nearly 25,000 casualties, next to zero gain, not even reaching the Russian first line of defense. No amount of noise or lipstick on a pig-type article from Ukrainian "independent" sources like those cited above by U2S is going to change that reality.

That's why there has not been a lot of media coverage on the much-ballyhooed Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive, the news has been horrendous, Ukraine has been experiencing its worst month in a year, even worse than the defeat in Bakhmut.

Head of Ukrainian armed forces Zaluzhny stated that Ukraine is being outbombed by a factor of 10 to 1, and that expecting Ukraine to make advances in this offensive would be like expecting them to defeat Russia with bows and arrows:

Quote:


Valery Zalyzhny, respectfully called "The General" by Time Magazine.
rarely gives interviews. But when he does, it truly has a strong message. A brief overview of General's interview for the WaPo:
.

- For Ukraine's counteroffensive to progress faster there is a need for more of every weapon.

-His troops also should be firing at least as many artillery shells as their enemy, Zaluzhny said, but have been outshot tenfold at times because of limited resources. And the warehouses are not being refilled as fast as needed.

-The questions that weigh on him daily: When will Ukraine's Western partners provide the arms he needs, particularly more ammunition and the F-16s? And how can he be expected to get the job done without them?

-Zaluzhny about US General Mark Milley"We have an agreement: 24/7, we're in touch. So, sometimes I can call up and say, 'If I don't get 100,000 shells in a week, 1,000 people will die. Step into my shoes,'

-But Zaluzhny also pointed to NATO forces' own doctrine which parallels Russia's, he said that calls for air superiority before launching ground-based deep-reaching operations. Ukraine is expected to have success despite NATOs own doctrine.

-"Nobody is saying that tomorrow we should rearm and get 120 planes. I do not need 120 planes. A very limited number would be enough. But they are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation. It's like we'd go on the offensive with bows and arrows now."

But Mick Ryan. main consultant at Mick Ryan Solutions, and the recipient of the Order of Australia for distinguished leadership of the Australian 1st Reconstruction Task Force in Afghanistan. Mick here says that it's all about to change, turn on a dime, 180 degrees, because one and a half year into this conflict and after suffering 300,000KIAs, Ukraine has now taken the executive decision that they are going to "take down the Russian operational system".

This stuff would be really funny if it weren't so tragic. None of these neocon fools have any skin in the game, or more precisely, they do have a lot financial interest in running this show as long as possible - to the last Ukrainian.
smh
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been following this grab-bag of free daily ukraine twitter blogs on my desktop, mostly for video of stuff blowing up (ymmv)..
https://twitter.com/KyivPost
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123
Cal88
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From Bild, German MSM equivalent of Time magazine:



Quote:

"Fighting the Russians is getting harder and harder," was the headline of an article by the German newspaper Bild, which interviewed soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut.

They talk about the massive use of drones by Russians. "The danger from drones is huge, they see everything and usually immediately open fire," says a military man named Andrey.

"The enemy sees all our movements. Usually we can only move at night. We need night vision goggles and armored vehicles are also very necessary. The enemy is chasing us with helicopters, planes, anti-tank weapons," he says.

Both in the south and in the east "the Russian defense is strong", which causes high losses.

"Anyone who visits Ukrainian hospitals these days can see the price soldiers are paying: countless fighters have lost arms, legs and feet. NATO sources say there have been tens of thousands of them since the start of the war," the article says.

Ukrainian servicewoman Margarita believes that "the situation is very difficult" and the quick liberation of the territories is "impossible."

"The situation has always been difficult, and now even more difficult. Behind every centimeter of the liberated territory are the lives of many fighters. There are casualties, heavy fighting. The Russian army does not degrade and fights primitively, some parts fight very effectively and improve, use drones.
sycasey
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tequila4kapp said:

Unit2Sucks said:

If you are looking for sources that are better than Russian funded shills, there are plenty.

Mick Ryan, former aussie military, often provides good analysis. Here's a recent example about the current offensive.


Dmitri, Estonian who translated Russian and Ukrainian content into English, is a great "primary source" for content. His info isn't always right because it's often based on underlying social media content that can be incorrect but it's often a good barometer for sentiment. The second tweet below claims that Ukraine has re-taken Klescheevka near Bakhmut. Russian shills, with no basis, will claim this is fake news since that is the propaganda party line. I assume the truth will come out soon and we will know whether Ukraine has taken control or not.



* * *
The Ryan thread is an interesting read. If Ukraine needed to attack Russia's operational system one wonders why that couldn't happen earlier, why they had to wait for spring.
Weather.
BearHunter
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oski003 said:

I read it. It is a firehose of NATO propaganda. I still don't understand how they will do it and why it is taking so long, absent they simply don't have the firepower to do it. I imagine this is where future clusterbombs and f16s come ins, in hopes that more weaponry will tip the scale in Ukraine's favor.


Last year, Jen Psaki said Russia using cluster ammunitions was a war crime.
BearHunter
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Unit2Sucks said:

Despite shills pretending that this war is going well for Putin and that Russia is somehow magically not suffering the domestic consequences of this huge debacle.

What they don't want to acknowledge yet - because it is completely counter to everything they've claimed for more than a year - is that the destruction of Ukraine's industrial and commercial infrastructure was very much an aim for Russia and one in which they've been quite successful.
tequila4kapp
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sycasey said:

tequila4kapp said:

Unit2Sucks said:

If you are looking for sources that are better than Russian funded shills, there are plenty.

Mick Ryan, former aussie military, often provides good analysis. Here's a recent example about the current offensive.


Dmitri, Estonian who translated Russian and Ukrainian content into English, is a great "primary source" for content. His info isn't always right because it's often based on underlying social media content that can be incorrect but it's often a good barometer for sentiment. The second tweet below claims that Ukraine has re-taken Klescheevka near Bakhmut. Russian shills, with no basis, will claim this is fake news since that is the propaganda party line. I assume the truth will come out soon and we will know whether Ukraine has taken control or not.



* * *
The Ryan thread is an interesting read. If Ukraine needed to attack Russia's operational system one wonders why that couldn't happen earlier, why they had to wait for spring.
Weather.
But that's the thing, the infrastructure of Russia's war making ability should make for material different war needs. I would think that's more like flying drones to remote locations to take out leadership, not the standard WW1 trench stuff the main war is comprised of. In which case, generally weather wouldn't be as major a consideration.
Cal88
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There's about 6 weeks of muddy conditions in the Fall, from mid-October to late November, and maybe 8 weeks in Spring from mid-March to mid-May. The rest of the time the tanks can roll. So "weather" is kind of a bad excuse, considering they\ve had a window of 38 weeks the rest of the year.

As far as standoff weapons for Ukraine, from drones all the way to the $2.6 million Storm Shadow cruise missile, Russia has been neutralizing or intercepting most of these through EW and its range of AA equipment. A western media source has acknowledged that Russia has been neutralizing around 10,000 small drones per month. On the higher end of the spectrum, here is a good though very technical rundown of the showdown between the SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missile and the Pantsir AA system:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-storm-shadow-interception

Unit2Sucks
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Does anyone else remember when the Putin shills amplified thr laughably false Russian propaganda that ISIS fighters were supporting Ukraine? I came across this recently and it reminded me how disingenuous the shills are and why you should either ignore them or question every piece of information they share. When they aren't inventing things out of whole cloth (like casualty ratios) they are usuallly just propagating straight misinformation distributed by Russian straight media overtly or through indirect channels (eg state run fake twitter accounts line Spriter and TrollstoyNeoNazi).

This is but one largely inconsequential example of the deceit that the pro-Putin crowd engages in - not just on BI but more broadly - and rest assured that thr more you fact check them the more you realize they are merely conduits for the firehose of falsehoods being generated by the Russian state. Among other things, they aim to con people into believing that Russia's laughable expressed predicate for stating this unprovoked war is genuine (we know it isn't and Prigozhin's recent statement are but one example from someone actually in the know), that Russia is actually succeeding in this war despite the evidence to the contrary, that Russia isn't corrupt, and on and on.

Here's the article:
Quote:

AP identified him as a "Ukrainian commander of unit aka Kurt." In one of the photographs, the name "Kurt" is seen on the man's helmet.

One of the patches on the Ukrainian commander's uniform caught the attention of Russia's RT state news agency.

RT noted that Kurt had a patch on his left sleeve resembling the logo of the terrorist group ISIS, which RT said suggested ties between the Ukrainian military and ISIS.

On February 16, Iran's Tasnim News state news agency published a similar story claiming the Ukrainian commander's photograph suggested ties between the Ukrainian military and ISIS.

India's Hindustan Times went even further, with a headline formulated as a rhetorical question: "Putin's ISIS claim about Ukraine war real? Kyiv's commander with Islamic State insignia spotted."

"Shocking evidence of ISIS involvement in the Ukrainian armed forces has emerged," the outlet reported.

The Hindustan Times conclusion is false, and the reports by other outlets are highly misleading.

Polygraph.info found and interviewed the Ukrainian commander from the AP photographs. Kurt explained that he has nothing to do with ISIS, but collects patches and wears them as trophies. The ISIS patch is a trophy he took from the body of a mercenary from Russia's Wagner private military company, the commander said.

During a video-recorded interview, Kurt confirmed his identity and showed Polygraph.info his helmet and the patches on his uniform as they appeared in the AP photographs. He said that he is collecting military patches - as do many of his colleagues, who, like him, have been on the front lines since 2014, when Russia moved its troops, disguised as local partisans, into eastern Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian army has absolutely nothing to do with ISIS or any other terrorist group, we are defending our home from the real terrorist, Russia, for nine years now," Kurt said.
movielover
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We'll likely do what is typical - give them our old munitions, which are even more apt to fail. Last I read the failure rate was 15%.
movielover
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Mock Ryan - CIA payroll?
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Does anyone else remember when the Putin shills amplified thr laughably false Russian propaganda that ISIS fighters were supporting Ukraine? I came across this recently and it reminded me how disingenuous the shills are and why you should either ignore them or question every piece of information they share. When they aren't inventing things out of whole cloth (like casualty ratios) they are usuallly just propagating straight misinformation distributed by Russian straight media overtly or through indirect channels (eg state run fake twitter accounts line Spriter and TrollstoyNeoNazi).

This is but one largely inconsequential example of the deceit that the pro-Putin crowd engages in - not just on BI but more broadly - and rest assured that thr more you fact check them the more you realize they are merely conduits for the firehose of falsehoods being generated by the Russian state. Among other things, they aim to con people into believing that Russia's laughable expressed predicate for stating this unprovoked war is genuine (we know it isn't and Prigozhin's recent statement are but one example from someone actually in the know), that Russia is actually succeeding in this war despite the evidence to the contrary, that Russia isn't corrupt, and on and on.

Here's the article:
Quote:

AP identified him as a "Ukrainian commander of unit aka Kurt." In one of the photographs, the name "Kurt" is seen on the man's helmet.

One of the patches on the Ukrainian commander's uniform caught the attention of Russia's RT state news agency.

RT noted that Kurt had a patch on his left sleeve resembling the logo of the terrorist group ISIS, which RT said suggested ties between the Ukrainian military and ISIS.

On February 16, Iran's Tasnim News state news agency published a similar story claiming the Ukrainian commander's photograph suggested ties between the Ukrainian military and ISIS.

India's Hindustan Times went even further, with a headline formulated as a rhetorical question: "Putin's ISIS claim about Ukraine war real? Kyiv's commander with Islamic State insignia spotted."

"Shocking evidence of ISIS involvement in the Ukrainian armed forces has emerged," the outlet reported.

The Hindustan Times conclusion is false, and the reports by other outlets are highly misleading.

Polygraph.info found and interviewed the Ukrainian commander from the AP photographs. Kurt explained that he has nothing to do with ISIS, but collects patches and wears them as trophies. The ISIS patch is a trophy he took from the body of a mercenary from Russia's Wagner private military company, the commander said.

During a video-recorded interview, Kurt confirmed his identity and showed Polygraph.info his helmet and the patches on his uniform as they appeared in the AP photographs. He said that he is collecting military patches - as do many of his colleagues, who, like him, have been on the front lines since 2014, when Russia moved its troops, disguised as local partisans, into eastern Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian army has absolutely nothing to do with ISIS or any other terrorist group, we are defending our home from the real terrorist, Russia, for nine years now," Kurt said.



The jihadi terrorist pipeline between Syria and Ukraine is well-established. This story here above about a patch is being used to obscure that bigger picture.

U2S is a true believer who buys most of the Ukrainian propaganda he relays here at face value, but he lacks in understanding of the big picture and facts behind the stories he broadcasts here. Debunking most of his firehose of falsehoods stories is fairly easy, though it gets bit tedious at times given the high volume.

Some info on the Syrian jihadi pipeline to Ukraine:

Chechen jihadist leader leaves Syria's Idlib to fight in Ukraine

The Chechen leader (left) with a leader from Jund al-Aqsa jihadist group
Quote:

IDLIB, Syria (North Press) A military source close to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) revealed that a Chechen jihadist leader, along with a group of his militants, left Idlib, northwest Syria, and arrived in Ukraine at the end of last week.

The Chachan leader, Abdul-Hakim al-Shishani, serves as the leader of Ajnad al-Kavkaz, an armed jihadist group close to HTS and operates in the Syrian Governorate of Idlib.

A source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told North Press that the Chechen leader arrived at the end of last week in Ukraine with about 70 militants of his group.

HTS also facilitated the departure of the Chachan leader, who left Idlib with his group in small batches, as part of its efforts to get rid of all foreign militants who carry extremist ideology from the areas under its control.
https://npasyria.com/en/86194/

https://www.counterextremism.com/extremists/abdul-hakim-al-shishani



Ex-Leader Of Syria-Based Jihadi Group Commands Chechen Unit Fighting In Ukraine Against Russia, Receives Ukrainian Passport
https://www.memri.org/jttm/ex-leader-syria-based-jihadi-group-commands-chechen-unit-fighting-ukraine-against-russia
Cal88
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movielover said:

Mock Ryan - CIA payroll?

PR arm of the MIC, promoting the forever war narrative.
Unit2Sucks
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dajo9 said:

Is it true that Ukraine's offensive has already gained more ground that the entire Russian winter offensive which I heard was a huge strategic military success?
I've heard statements to that effect but I'm not sure how meaningful it is to be honest. Russia has essentially made no meaningful progress in occupying new territory since March 2022. The shills would claim that their strategy for the 3 day war was to spend years bombing the ever loving sh(t out of Ukraine to destroy Ukraine's military and exhaust their will but that's really just making excuses for the fact that Russia's military is a disaster and incapable of waging a successful campaign. So they pretend their aim is to destroy UFA forces but Russia seems to be quite happy destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and creating collateral damage in order to prevent Ukraine from rebuilding successfully after Russia eventually loses this war.

With the exception of Bakhmut, which was only taken because Prigozhin and Wagner put everything they had into it, Russia has had no meaningful territorial wins in a long time. Despite the shills pretending otherwise, even Russia now openly acknowledges that Bakhmut wasn't strategic and was just Prigozhin trying to get attention. This is also an admission that Ukraine's strategy of fighting Bakhmut was a smart one - Russia expended a lot of resources with essentially no strategic win.

Russia certainly has a path to continued destruction of Ukraine but I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe that Russia is going to be able to occupy and control Ukraine indefinitely. Eventually their people will tire of the lies they are being fed and will wonder why they are mired in this stupid war - just as the American people have in all of our dumb forever wars. The only question is how much damage Russia will do before it gives up. Putin didn't care about the eco catastrophe he created by blowing up KHPP and why no one should be surprised if they blow up ZNPP which won't have the impact of KHPP but would set back Ukraine's rebuilding efforts after Russia eventually gives up.
bearister
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Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/
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Cal88
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Russia's strategy is quite clear, and not that unorthodox as their military doctrine is right out of von Clausewitz' playbook: to destroy Ukraine's military, and they are doing this while incurring as fewer losses as possible, engaging a relatively small military force backed by superior weapons in large volumes. They are winning the war of attrition, sustaining much smaller human losses and producing enough weaponry to maintain their current high volume ammunition usage.

Russia's economy has been largely unperturbed by the war, in fact they will reap some benefits in future arms exports as their weapon systems have fared very well in this war. Russia's main challenge this decade could be a labor shortage, with its industry running at high capacity.

https://unherd.com/thepost/russias-economy-is-outperforming-germanys/

Great rundown on the 5-week old Ukrainian Counteroffensive from HistoryLegends:

Big C
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bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/

One writer's opinion. Russia doesn't have much of an historical tradition of democracy, so it will be "interesting" to see who/what follows Putin.

Many pundits argue the exact opposite from this author, saying that the world is becoming less democratic and more autocratic. In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
dimitrig
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Big C said:

bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/

One writer's opinion. Russia doesn't have much of an historical tradition of democracy, so it will be "interesting" to see who/what follows Putin.

Many pundits argue the exact opposite from this author, saying that the world is becoming less democratic and more autocratic. In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.


They already demonstrated that by storming the Capitol after a free and fair election saw their guy lose by 7 million votes. It wasn't even a close election unlike when Bush stole the election from Gore.

Cal88
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BearHunter
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Big C said:


In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
Joe Biden isn't democracy but I understand the cult thinks otherwise.
BearHunter
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dimitrig said:


They already demonstrated that by storming the Capitol after a free and fair election saw their guy lose by 7 million votes. It wasn't even a close election unlike when Bush stole the election from Gore.
Democrats were election deniers in 2000 and 2016 and election fraud deniers in 2020 and will be election deniers again in 2024.
tequila4kapp
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dimitrig said:

Big C said:

bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/

One writer's opinion. Russia doesn't have much of an historical tradition of democracy, so it will be "interesting" to see who/what follows Putin.

Many pundits argue the exact opposite from this author, saying that the world is becoming less democratic and more autocratic. In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
They already demonstrated that by storming the Capitol after a free and fair election saw their guy lose by 7 million votes. It wasn't even a close election unlike when Bush stole the election from Gore.
This couldn't be further from the truth. They were there because they believed the election was fraudulent. Their presence was - to them - a defense of democracy, not an affront to it. We can disagree with what they believed but that is different from imputing wholly different anti-democracy motives to them
bearister
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That's why I always had a lot of respect for the Manson Family. In their minds, their slaughtering of people was in defense of their strongly held beliefs. We can disagree regarding their beliefs, but there is a certain purity to their actions because they were true believers.
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sycasey
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BearHunter said:

Big C said:


In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
Joe Biden isn't democracy but I understand the cult thinks otherwise.

He is if he won the election and another cult tried to violently prevent that from being recognized.
BearHunter
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sycasey said:

BearHunter said:

Big C said:


In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
Joe Biden isn't democracy but I understand the cult thinks otherwise.

He is if he won the election and another cult tried to violently prevent that from being recognized.


Let's recognize the cult leader, otherwise known as Democracy.
dimitrig
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tequila4kapp said:

dimitrig said:

Big C said:

bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/

One writer's opinion. Russia doesn't have much of an historical tradition of democracy, so it will be "interesting" to see who/what follows Putin.

Many pundits argue the exact opposite from this author, saying that the world is becoming less democratic and more autocratic. In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
They already demonstrated that by storming the Capitol after a free and fair election saw their guy lose by 7 million votes. It wasn't even a close election unlike when Bush stole the election from Gore.
This couldn't be further from the truth. They were there because they believed the election was fraudulent. Their presence was - to them - a defense of democracy, not an affront to it. We can disagree with what they believed but that is different from imputing wholly different anti-democracy motives to them


7 million more votes is a lot of fraudulent votes. How many votes would Trump have to lose by before they started to think people might legitimately not want to vote for him? This wasn't even a close election even in terms of electoral votes.

When people start denying the results of free and fair elections because they don't like the results of democracy I would call that anti-democracy. You don't only get to pretend you support democracy when your guy wins.

tequila4kapp
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bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/
Do we really care about Putin falling? How about he withdraws from Ukraine and quits ****ing with our elections? Other than that, let the Russian people live in peace, with freedom, democracy and opportunity..
BearHunter
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Quote:

7 million more votes is a lot of fraudulent votes. How many votes would Trump have to lose by before they started to think people might legitimately not want to vote to him? This wasn't even a close election even in terms of electoral votes.

When people start denying the results of free and fair elections because they don't like the results of democracy I would call that anti-democracy. You don't only get to pretend you support democracy when your guy wins.

C'mon now, you're letting these slimy Republicans, I mean, RINOs off the hook, including Trump appointees like Bill Barr. The Democrats didn't steal this thing on their own.
dajo9
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tequila4kapp said:

bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/
Do we really care about Putin falling? How about he withdraws from Ukraine and quits ****ing with our elections? Other than that, let the Russian people live in peace, with freedom, democracy and opportunity..


"How about"

"Other than that"
bearister
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Putin sacks another top general in charge of the war against Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/12279617
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movielover
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sycasey
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bearister said:

Putin sacks another top general in charge of the war against Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/12279617

Everything has gone according to plan.
movielover
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I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.

Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:

bearister said:

Putin sacks another top general in charge of the war against Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/12279617

Everything has gone according to plan.
Exactly. This is bad news for Ukraine because Gerasimov has been an absolute disaster as a commander and architect for this war. His secret to success is being good at palace politics, which is why he hasn't fallen out of a window yet despite one debacle after another for Russia's war effort.

Amazing that it took Putin 500 days and one mutiny to finally realize what was going on.

Here are some excerpts from an article from May.
Quote:

Why is Vladimir Putin standing by Russian General Valery Gerasimov after four key failures during the Ukraine war?

A list of failures

This individual is General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the overall commander of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.
So far in this war, Gerasimov has been a four-time loser.

1. The invasion plan

His first failure was the original plan for the invasion of Ukraine.

...

2. The early weeks of war were a shambles

Gerasimov's second failure was the shambolic initial weeks of the Russian mobilisation that was announced by President Vladimir Putin in September 2022.

...
3. Russia lost capacity for rapid expansion

Gerasimov's third failure, which had a major influence on mobilisation failures as well as the Russian Army's operational challenges, was the decade-long program of transformation overseen by Gerasimov and Shoigu.

...
4. Failed offensives

To round out his abysmal recent record, General Gerasimov assumed command of the Russian forces in Ukraine and launched a widescale offensive in January this year. A series of thrusts were conducted on five main axes of advance from the Kreminna region, and all the way south through Bakhmut, Avidivka, Donetsk and Vuhledar.

...

So why is Putin standing by Gerasimov?

Given this record of poor performance, one would think that Gerasimov's days might be numbered.
The reality, however, is that Putin is likely to keep him in his position for the time being. Not only is Gerasimov adept at palace politics in the Kremlin, but he is very loyal to Putin.

As Russian expert Dara Massicot noted when Gerasimov replaced previous commander Sergey Surovikin in January this year: "They have taken someone who is competent and replaced him with someone who is incompetent, but who has been there a long time and who has shown that he is loyal."

In authoritarian regimes, competent soldiers are less important than loyal ones. And, as Gerasimov may find out in the future, they also make excellent scapegoats for tyrants wishing to save their own skin.
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
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