sycasey said:bearister said:
Putin sacks another top general in charge of the war against Ukraine
https://mol.im/a/12279617
Everything has gone according to plan.
There is no such thing as the mythic patriotic Ukrainian volunteer, the bulk of their forces are made up of men like this...
— Noctis Draven (@DravenNoctis) July 9, 2023
This is a horrifying video and very sad. A man is sitting in traffic with his family and is ripped out of his car by UAF officials to be taken to the… pic.twitter.com/OFgbcrA3Y0
❗️ A Ukrainian offensive near Gorlovka turned into a massacre before it even started, under fire from FPV drones and artillery pic.twitter.com/EQc4Ctij4F
— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) July 9, 2023
“These are all our dead” … Ukrainian soldier is devastated with the huge toll of the counteroffensive. pic.twitter.com/XuqeUutnTS
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) July 9, 2023
Fuск Zelensky
— Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) July 6, 2023
Fuск NATO
Listen to what this Ukrainian conscript has to say. Things are not going well in Ukraine 👇 pic.twitter.com/NoOEXYwuZX
dimitrig said:Big C said:bearister said:
Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/
One writer's opinion. Russia doesn't have much of an historical tradition of democracy, so it will be "interesting" to see who/what follows Putin.
Many pundits argue the exact opposite from this author, saying that the world is becoming less democratic and more autocratic. In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.
They already demonstrated that by storming the Capitol after a free and fair election saw their guy lose by 7 million votes. It wasn't even a close election unlike when Bush stole the election from Gore.
WTF!
— Black Diamond (@blackdiammon) July 8, 2023
pic.twitter.com/51sHyhfhHz
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Of course, the couple will be forced to occupy the land in central Siberia. There will be no roads, so they will be on their own for helicopter transport to cover the 100 miles to the nearest village.movielover said:
I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.State Duma deputies proposed giving free land to Russian families after 10 years of marriage.
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) July 9, 2023
Big C said:tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Yeah, I mean neither side exactly has lines of young men, just waiting to sign up. What a sh*t show this war is. And for what? Get a bunch of human beings together and they can end up doing some insane stuff...
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Of course, the couple will be forced to occupy the land in central Siberia. There will be no roads, so they will be on their own for helicopter transport to cover the 100 miles to the nearest village.movielover said:
I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.State Duma deputies proposed giving free land to Russian families after 10 years of marriage.
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) July 9, 2023
That's a good point and it would make sense to encourage population growth there, even if the currently have an erupting volcano in the area. Winters In Vladivostok are about 10 degrees colder than what I deal with here. Highs around 20 and lows around zero. Summers are in the 70s and probably not too different than Oakland or Berkeley.Cal88 said:Eastern Oregon Bear said:Of course, the couple will be forced to occupy the land in central Siberia. There will be no roads, so they will be on their own for helicopter transport to cover the 100 miles to the nearest village.movielover said:
I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.State Duma deputies proposed giving free land to Russian families after 10 years of marriage.
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) July 9, 2023
They have a lot of empty land on or near their east coast, prime land around Vladivostock, which actually has decent climate by Russian standards.
Cal88 said:tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.
If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.
Big C said:Cal88 said:tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.
If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.
This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.
If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.
bearister said:
Captured Russian soldiers tell of low morale, disarray and horrors of trench warfare | CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/06/europe/captured-russian-soldiers-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html
These sorts of videos coming out from Storm Z personnel should emphasise what the unit really is, a meat dispensary of disposable forces. Unlike Wagner's convicts, these personnel are more poorly trained and even less supported. https://t.co/5TsOrARNaC
— Alec Bertina (@bertina_alec) July 9, 2023
Prigozhin's reaction:https://t.co/xDuXt2cLdv pic.twitter.com/dzlq07rpwu
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) July 9, 2023
1/ A framed document apparently photographed in Yevgeny Prigozhin's house sets out what appears to be the Wagner Group's founding 'constitution'. It's signed by Prigozhin (who's referred to as the 'Director') and Dmitry Utkin, Wagner's founder (the 'Commander'). ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/LuK04vOeLq
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) July 9, 2023
Meanwhile in Russia: state TV propagandists gloated over the protests in France, unfavorably comparing them to Prigozhin's mutiny. They discussed how to convince the world that the West is in decline and Russia is the new superpower.https://t.co/5WpCjNming
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) July 4, 2023
Cal88 said:Big C said:Cal88 said:tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.
If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.
This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.
If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.
From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.
As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.
Quote:
The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world:....So what gives here?
NATO countries must pay MORE, the United States must pay LESS. Very Unfair!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 10, 2018
Big C said:Cal88 said:Big C said:Cal88 said:tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.
If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.
This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.
If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.
From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.
As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.
Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:
It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?
The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).
So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".
Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?
This question is open to anyone, btw.
This may undercounts a few meaningful categories of casualties. First - the Russian supported separatist groups. Second - what about Wagner? Third - there have been persistent rumors of Russia hiding bodies, etc. and just pretending like their dead soldiers are still alive.bearister said:
New data suggests 50,000 Russian deaths during Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/new-data-uncovers-50000-russian-deaths-during-the-ukraine-war
500 days of war in Ukraine: At what cost? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/7/8/500-days-of-war-in-ukraine-at-what-cost
My two cents based on what I've read and heard. I don't pretend to be a military strategy expert and I don't receive propaganda from a discord server or however the shills get their firehose.Big C said:
Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:
It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?
The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).
So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".
Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?
This question is open to anyone, btw.
There are wildly varying estimates as to how many shells they can produce per year. I've heard as low as 20k per month. The Estonian said 3.4M, which is far less than they are burning (eg would need to keep burn below 10k per day).Quote:
"We estimate that Russia had about 17 million rounds of ammunition before the war started, 10 million of which have been used up," he said. "At the end of the summer, their ammunition usage was very high - there were days when between 20,000 and 60,000 [artillery] rounds were being fired, which is a huge amount."
Grosberg pointed out, that while prior to the war, Russia's artillery remanufacturing capacity was around 1.7 million units per year, along with the introduction of mobilization, factories which produce arms have increased their operations significantly, in order to increase arms production.
"No matter how much they are able to increase ammunition production levels, simple math tells us that they still have about 10 million (rounds) in stock. They could produce around 3.4 million more in a year, meaning they would have enough ammunition for at least another year, if not longer, of war," the colonel said.
Yes, it's so unsustainable that it probably isn't true. If Ukraine had really lost that many soldiers they would have already lost the war.movielover said:
For arguments sake, let's say there are 75,000 dead Russians.
Months ago, I believe Colonel McGregor said over 400,000 Ukranians were KIA.
That's an unsustainable imbalance, especially since millions have fled Ukraine.
Quote:
we can assert with a 95% probability that the true number of casualties falls between 40,000 and 55,000
Cal88 said:Big C said:Cal88 said:Big C said:Cal88 said:tequila4kapp said:Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.John Redcorn said:You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?Unit2Sucks said:
But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.
You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.
If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.
This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.
If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.
From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.
As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.
Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:
It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?
The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).
So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".
Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?
This question is open to anyone, btw.
ML went over some of the main points, here they are:
-Structural issues in the western MICs and procurement system - emphasis on high end high tech products, not "commodities" like shells.
- Radically different military doctrines - NATO did not anticipate this kind of a war, been fighting lower-intensity insurgency wars since Korea
-Gigantic Soviet era excess capacity and inventory, Russians have held on/reactivated facilities
-Heavy industry - steel, brass, nitrates, explosives; additional environmental and handling safeguards, sectors being phased out in the West, not that easy to get back in line right away. Big industrial and chemical sectors in Russia.
Those were also covered in an article by British think tank RUSI, The return of industrial warfare
Japan is the latest source of shells, I think Israel and S. Korea might have been tapped out.
sycasey said:
Yes, it's so unsustainable that it probably isn't true. If Ukraine had really lost that many soldiers they would have already lost the war.
"Thrown into tree lines like dogs" - Russian mobiks refused to obey orders to go to the zero line and were thrown into a pit. pic.twitter.com/uRy1hdlhiq
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 10, 2023
Convicts from Storm Z units are asking the Kremlin Ripper to stop sending them into "massacres", appealing to his human feelings I suppose, which is ironic given that he gave a go for convicts to be utilised on the frontlines.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 10, 2023
They say they're being purposefully "murdered" with… pic.twitter.com/nJmzzMGFhs
1/ Mobilised Russians from the 1452nd Regiment say they have been "sent for slaughter" against "Germans, Poles and Negroes", suffered heavy casualties in a Ukrainian encirclement, and that men who have lost arms or legs are being sent back to the front line to fight. ⬇️
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) July 10, 2023
and rockets russia fired at Ukraine have failed to detonate... and the russians laid millions of mines... and the russians continue dispersing 100,000s of pieces of unexploded ammo all over Ukraine.
— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) July 10, 2023
Those 2% of US cluster ammo are a drop in the bucket.
2/2
Quote:
"Mobilised Russians from the 1452nd Regiment say they have been "sent for slaughter" against "Germans, Poles and Negroes", suffered heavy casualties in a Ukrainian encirclement, and that men who have lost arms or legs are being sent back to the front line to fight"
movielover said:
Colonel Douglass McGregor says the Wagner crew easily taking out helicopters shows they should be deemphasized in the coming years.
BearHunter said:oski003 said:
I read it. It is a firehose of NATO propaganda. I still don't understand how they will do it and why it is taking so long, absent they simply don't have the firepower to do it. I imagine this is where future clusterbombs and f16s come ins, in hopes that more weaponry will tip the scale in Ukraine's favor.President Biden, when asked why the U.S. now plans to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine:
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 7, 2023
“They were running out of ammunition.”
pic.twitter.com/iKSxL7rgBi
Last year, Jen Psaki said Russia using cluster ammunitions was a war crime.