The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

942,045 Views | 10279 Replies | Last: 15 hrs ago by Eastern Oregon Bear
movielover
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There was a signed peace deal early on but the US / NATO stopped it. Ukraine and NATOs military are decimated, and UKR is in tatters.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

bearister said:

Putin sacks another top general in charge of the war against Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/12279617

Everything has gone according to plan.

Surovikin has been in charge since last Fall, kind of like a hands-on OC, while Shoigu has focused on the military infrastructure and big picture, sort of like a HC.

Surovikin was one of the main planners of the southern defensive structure and strategy, which has been extremely successful to date, so yes, you could say that everything has gone according to his plan.
Cal88
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How do you win a war when you have to have men like this very unfortunate father from Odessa who is pried from his car and family at an intersection?



Ukraine has been using men like him as cannon fodder, shipping them with limited training and throwing them into the mine fields under heavy artillery fire and drone attacks, with people watching over them from behind in case they try to surrender and get back to their families in one piece.





The average conscript doesn't want anything to do with this stupid war (warning - foul language)
Cal88
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dimitrig said:

Big C said:

bearister said:

Putin's fall could be the domino that topples the world's autocrats | The Hill


https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083902-putins-fall-could-be-the-domino-that-topples-the-worlds-autocrats/

One writer's opinion. Russia doesn't have much of an historical tradition of democracy, so it will be "interesting" to see who/what follows Putin.

Many pundits argue the exact opposite from this author, saying that the world is becoming less democratic and more autocratic. In this country alone, I feel like a lot of Trumpists would take their guy over democracy, in a heartbeat.


They already demonstrated that by storming the Capitol after a free and fair election saw their guy lose by 7 million votes. It wasn't even a close election unlike when Bush stole the election from Gore.




Cal88
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Gargamel is back!

tequila4kapp
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John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.
bearister
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Captured Russian soldiers tell of low morale, disarray and horrors of trench warfare | CNN


https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/06/europe/captured-russian-soldiers-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html

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Big C
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tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Yeah, I mean neither side exactly has lines of young men, just waiting to sign up. What a sh*t show this war is. And for what? Get a bunch of human beings together and they can end up doing some insane stuff...
Cal88
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tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.

If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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movielover said:

I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.


Of course, the couple will be forced to occupy the land in central Siberia. There will be no roads, so they will be on their own for helicopter transport to cover the 100 miles to the nearest village.
Cal88
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Big C said:

tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Yeah, I mean neither side exactly has lines of young men, just waiting to sign up. What a sh*t show this war is. And for what? Get a bunch of human beings together and they can end up doing some insane stuff...

One side has had to resort to press-gangs for the past 6 months+. The Russians on the other hand have had no problem filling their ranks with volunteers, they haven't had a mobilization since last Fall.

At this point, the war is going to go on until there are enough Ukrainian killed and wounded to create the will for a political settlement or regime change in Kiev. Hopefully that won't be "to the last Ukrainian"...

Lately, with a lot of the battles taking place in minefields around the Zaporozhia front, there has been a large surge in the number of Ukrainian soldiers who have lost their limbs, and got discharged. Their presence in evergrowing numbers among civilians might sway public opinion there.

I have a friend from NY who lost his leg many years ago in a car accident (he was run over by a drunk driver whose car careened into the sidewalk). He has had a custom leg from an Austrian firm, which apparently makes the best product in the world. He said they now have a 2-year order backlog for new artificial legs, while before the war it would have only taken a few weeks.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.


Of course, the couple will be forced to occupy the land in central Siberia. There will be no roads, so they will be on their own for helicopter transport to cover the 100 miles to the nearest village.

They have a lot of empty land on or near their east coast, prime land around Vladivostock, which actually has decent climate by Russian standards.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

I've wondered why more countries don't do this to incentivize marriage and families. Incentivize two-child + families.


Of course, the couple will be forced to occupy the land in central Siberia. There will be no roads, so they will be on their own for helicopter transport to cover the 100 miles to the nearest village.

They have a lot of empty land on or near their east coast, prime land around Vladivostock, which actually has decent climate by Russian standards.
That's a good point and it would make sense to encourage population growth there, even if the currently have an erupting volcano in the area. Winters In Vladivostok are about 10 degrees colder than what I deal with here. Highs around 20 and lows around zero. Summers are in the 70s and probably not too different than Oakland or Berkeley.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.

If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.

This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.

If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.
Cal88
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.

If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.

This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.

If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.

From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.

As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.
Unit2Sucks
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bearister said:

Captured Russian soldiers tell of low morale, disarray and horrors of trench warfare | CNN


https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/06/europe/captured-russian-soldiers-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html




Of course they do - it's becoming harder and harder for Putin's domestic firehose of falsehoods to betray the public.

Look how Russia treats its own. The shills want you to forget that Russia started this unprovoked war and that Ukraine is the victim. No Ukrainian should be forced to go to war. No Russian should be forced to serve in this criminal invasion. But they are and it's a brutal war and both sides have far too many people suffering the consequences. Anyone defending Russia or pretending like the horrors are just with Ukraine wants to deceive you.



A few weeks ago, Prigozhin and Wagner were the heroes of Bakhmut. Look at how they have to be portrayed now.


Side note: interesting thread on Wagner's constitution:



If you want to see how Russian propaganda disseminates from the top down, here's a good example. Seeing more and more shills and useful idiots echoing these comments.



As for cluster munitions, would be great if this war had never happened but Russia started it and has used cluster bombs, thermobarics and phosphorus against Ukraine. Ukraine shouldn't have to defend against those weapons but the handwringing from Putinists is risible. They know that these sorts of weapons are brutal and don't want to see the make things every worse for Russia.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.

If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.

This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.

If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.

From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.

As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.

Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:

It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?

The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).

So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".

Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?

This question is open to anyone, btw.
BearHunter
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Quote:

The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world:....So what gives here?
movielover
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I'm told recruitment of new service members is down 20%. Don't forget the added - forced - clot shot effect. No bueno.
movielover
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You're a year late to the ammunition party. This has been well known and often discussed here. The fact is, we don't have the large-scale surge capacity. Second, our 44 incompetent 4-star Generals apparently misjudged the old-school artillery warfare strategy of Russia. Our free-market businesses don't budget and gear up for temporary, limited production runs. Don't forget we've spent 5 decades exporting or shutting down manufacturing. (Not one steel or aluminum plant on the west coast?) The public isn't behind a proxy war with Russia. It's quiet the leaderless conundrum.

We're supposedly rerouting stockpiles from South Korea, Israel, the EU, but most all of it is already tapped. NATO / EU / USA were unprepared for the biggest artillery warfare since WWII. We talk a big game. Maybe that's why some Progressive leaders want 'limited' nuclear use, bc we have those weapons on hand. Insane talk. Don't forget, Europe is struggling to supply energy to existing businesses bc they've "gone green", and NS2 was blown up. Germany is losing core industrial century-old businesses, and many EU countries have shut down nuclear energy. I don't know why we didn't develop this surge capacity in the South, Puerto Rico or the Phillipines. And now China has a growing presence in ... drum roll... Mexico.
Cal88
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.

If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.

This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.

If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.

From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.

As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.

Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:

It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?

The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).

So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".

Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?

This question is open to anyone, btw.

ML went over some of the main points, here they are:

-Structural issues in the western MICs and procurement system - emphasis on high end high tech products, not "commodities" like shells.

- Radically different military doctrines - NATO did not anticipate this kind of a war, been fighting lower-intensity insurgency wars since Korea

-Gigantic Soviet era excess capacity and inventory, Russians have held on/reactivated facilities

-Heavy industry - steel, brass, nitrates, explosives; additional environmental and handling safeguards, sectors being phased out in the West, not that easy to get back in line right away. Big industrial and chemical sectors in Russia.

Those were also covered in an article by British think tank RUSI, The return of industrial warfare

Japan is the latest source of shells, I think Israel and S. Korea might have been tapped out.
movielover
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New York Times today: Ukraine's struggles
German Lopez

Slow start

"The recent mutiny in Russia has distracted attention from a more positive development for President Vladimir Putin: Ukraine's much-anticipated summer counteroffensive hasn't made much progress so far.

"Since the counteroffensive began last month, Ukraine claims to have retaken only about 60 square miles. By comparison, a less heralded push last fall in the country's northeast reclaimed nearly 5,000 square miles. "Ukraine is probably weeks behind where it hoped to be at this time," said my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security.

"For now, Ukraine appears to be struggling against Russian forces that are better prepared than the ones they encountered in last fall's offensive. Large minefields set up by the Russians have been especially difficult to deal with, making any Ukrainian advance risky. Western leaders are considering more aid to help Ukraine break through a topic that will likely come up in a NATO summit, starting tomorrow....

bearister
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New data suggests 50,000 Russian deaths during Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/new-data-uncovers-50000-russian-deaths-during-the-ukraine-war


500 days of war in Ukraine: At what cost? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/7/8/500-days-of-war-in-ukraine-at-what-cost
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movielover
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Senator Chris Coons on Sunday: ""First, we are running out of 155mm artillery munitions, and they are burning through them at a remarkable rate. Six to eight thousand a day. That's a million a year. We have a plan to bring back online the manufacturing of 155mm shells at scale, but that won't happen for months. They are at risk of losing this counter offensive if they run out of their shells. We have a large stockpile of 155mm shells that are cluster munitions...."

President Biden: ""we're in a situation where Ukraine continues to be brutally attacked across the board by munitions by these cluster munitions that are have dud rates that are very, very low I mean, very high, that are a danger to civilians, number one.

"Number two, the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition, the ammunition they used to call them 155-millimeter weapons. This is a this is a war relating to munitions. And they're running out of those that ammunition. And we're low on it."
Unit2Sucks
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bearister said:

New data suggests 50,000 Russian deaths during Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/10/new-data-uncovers-50000-russian-deaths-during-the-ukraine-war


500 days of war in Ukraine: At what cost? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/7/8/500-days-of-war-in-ukraine-at-what-cost
This may undercounts a few meaningful categories of casualties. First - the Russian supported separatist groups. Second - what about Wagner? Third - there have been persistent rumors of Russia hiding bodies, etc. and just pretending like their dead soldiers are still alive.

Even if it's "just" 50k dead Russians, that's far more than Russia lost in Afghanistan or any other war since WWII.

I expect this post to be followed by shills making up numbers for Ukrainian deaths - they are all made up numbers.

The reality is that the blood of every dead Russian is on Putin's hands and the blood of every dead Ukrainian is on Putin's hands. The Putin supporters desperately want to shift blame but this is his war and he is responsible for every death in this utterly ridiculous unprovoked war.

Big C said:


Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:

It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?

The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).

So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".

Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?

This question is open to anyone, btw.
My two cents based on what I've read and heard. I don't pretend to be a military strategy expert and I don't receive propaganda from a discord server or however the shills get their firehose.

Some of this is uncontroversial. Russia has a pretty antiquated military doctrine with a rigid command and control structure. They have long preferred to rely heavily on artillery. See here.

Further, the USSR stockpiled millions and millions of shells over a multi-decade period. Much of that has been used up and a lot of it is garbage - because it was poorly stored a lot of it is rusty, etc. Further, due to rampant corruption going back decades, a lot of the artillery simply isn't that useful. A lot of what they are using has previously been declared unfit for use. This is why the vast majority of Russian artillery misses the mark. It's not even close to precise, but since a primary goal is to destroy Ukraine and make it hard to rebuild, that's a feature for Putin not a bug.

I've heard that Russia started the war with as much as 17 million shells and that they used 10 million in the first 6 months of the war. They've since cut back and they may be close to exhausting their initial stockpiles.

Here's an article from last September with estimates from an Estonian colonel:
Quote:

"We estimate that Russia had about 17 million rounds of ammunition before the war started, 10 million of which have been used up," he said. "At the end of the summer, their ammunition usage was very high - there were days when between 20,000 and 60,000 [artillery] rounds were being fired, which is a huge amount."

Grosberg pointed out, that while prior to the war, Russia's artillery remanufacturing capacity was around 1.7 million units per year, along with the introduction of mobilization, factories which produce arms have increased their operations significantly, in order to increase arms production.

"No matter how much they are able to increase ammunition production levels, simple math tells us that they still have about 10 million (rounds) in stock. They could produce around 3.4 million more in a year, meaning they would have enough ammunition for at least another year, if not longer, of war," the colonel said.
There are wildly varying estimates as to how many shells they can produce per year. I've heard as low as 20k per month. The Estonian said 3.4M, which is far less than they are burning (eg would need to keep burn below 10k per day).

The second part of your question is why the US and NATO don't have as much. A big part of this is that the US and NATO rely on precision munitions. There will never be an artillery heavy war in the US, nor would we ever wage one. The US doesn't employ munitions that are unfit for use, so we don't have decades of rusty metal to ship off. It's just a completely different philosophy.

The US is going to be rebuilding its artillery stockpile (I assume mostly so that we can support our allies) over the next few years and is ramping up from ~250k shells per year to ~1M per year in a few years. The longer this war continues, the more we will spend to increase capacity. Obviously these numbers are far lower than Russian production and usage but Ukraine gets far more bang for their buck with artillery. In large part this is because Russia is indiscriminately using artillery to destroy Ukraine while Ukraine only wants to use munitions to destroy Russian forces.
movielover
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For arguments sake, let's say there are 75,000 dead Russians.

Months ago, I believe Colonel McGregor said over 400,000 Ukranians were KIA.

That's an unsustainable imbalance, especially since millions have fled Ukraine.

Blame lies on Mumbles Biden who didn't push to fulfill Minsk II, didn't talk to Putin, didn't stop blood-thirsty NATO (USA), spent over 300 days on vacation, and stopped the peace agreement which was signed early on in the war (Boris Johnson did Biden's bidding, stopping the peace agreement reached with the help of Israel PM Bennett).

US and NATO leaders openly said they wanted to "weaken" Russia. The chicken hawks have achieved the exact opposite.

No proxy war occurred under President Trump's watch, and he stopped the neocon RINOs and MIC four times from attacking Iran.
sycasey
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movielover said:

For arguments sake, let's say there are 75,000 dead Russians.

Months ago, I believe Colonel McGregor said over 400,000 Ukranians were KIA.

That's an unsustainable imbalance, especially since millions have fled Ukraine.
Yes, it's so unsustainable that it probably isn't true. If Ukraine had really lost that many soldiers they would have already lost the war.
Cal88
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This seems like a good source for Russian casualties. Although it is a western source, their methodology and approach seem fairly sound:

https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats

Quote:

we can assert with a 95% probability that the true number of casualties falls between 40,000 and 55,000

Ukrainian KIAs are between 250k and 350k IMHO. One important data point is Ursula von der Leyen's declaration back in November that Ukraine had had over 100k killed at that point, which was halfway from the start of the war.

Knowing that the 2nd half of the war was more intense with the Bakhmut battle and the last month plus of a disastrous high volume offensive, and knowing that VDL probably used a low estimate in her November speech to start with, it puts 250K as the low estimate for Ukrainian KIAs.

Qualitatively, you know that Ukraine wouldn't have resorted to press-ganging conscription tactics across the country if their losses weren't so high.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

John Redcorn said:

Unit2Sucks said:


But yes, this war has been a great success for Putin and Russia and Russia's military leadership has been phenomenal. That's why 500 days into this 3-day war, Russia has accomplished only one of its directives: destruction of Ukraine's economy and civil infrastructure.

You know how you know this war is going badly for Ukraine?

You don't grab men off the streets against their will to force them into your army when the war is going well and the U.S. doesn't attempt to authorize the use of cluster bombs if the war is going well for Ukraine.
Correct, you recruit them from prison and trade the balance of their sentence in exchange for fighting on the front lines.

Ukraine emptied out its jails in the first few months of the war.

If we were to enter another major war, the Pentagon will probably have to rely on a foreign legion along the French model, recruiting soldiers in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia for military service in exchange for US citizenship.

This just in: We have a bunch of people serving in our armed services. They volunteered.

If we had another Iraq-type war and needed more soldiers, we could just tap into our supply of under-educated young men. And if we were actually attacked by a defined and powerful enemy, we would have no shortage of sign-ups.

From what I've heard, the cultural changes in the military have alienated the rural/flyover/southern largely conservative segment that used to enroll in large numbers, and recruiters have had a hard time meeting their quotas.

As well if the next war is against Russia or China, even by proxy, it is likely to result in very different fighting conditions than what we've had the past 70 years, with large losses to be expected. Even against a foe like Iran, there would be heavy losses, as their large stock of missiles would be an equalizer. And I'm not sure there would be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-type of event that would generate a large turnout of volunteers.

Here's something that you have hinted that you might know something about, Cal 88:

It has been reported that one of the reasons that Biden has okayed "cluster munitions" is that Ukraine is short on "regular" munitions. And David Brooks beat me to the logical follow-up question: Why the hell can't we keep Ukraine supplied with regular munitions?

The NATO countries can't manufacture a sh*tload of shells? WTH?!? The NATO countries constitute many of the richest, most advanced countries in the world: We could make plenty of munitions, if we wanted to. Tons more than the Rooskies... again, if we were motivated to do so (maybe with some lag time, to get the factories up and running, but this war's been going on for 500 days).

So what gives here? And don't try and bs, because I have a basic knowledge of the economics of these countries over the past century or so... and I can see through bs, even if it is accompanied by "sources".

Bottom line, the US spends more on defense that the next 158 countries combined, times a brazillion (great GWB joke, btw) and even though a bunch of that has been wasted, there is plenty left over to where we should have plenty of goddam munitions, so what's going on?

This question is open to anyone, btw.

ML went over some of the main points, here they are:

-Structural issues in the western MICs and procurement system - emphasis on high end high tech products, not "commodities" like shells.

- Radically different military doctrines - NATO did not anticipate this kind of a war, been fighting lower-intensity insurgency wars since Korea

-Gigantic Soviet era excess capacity and inventory, Russians have held on/reactivated facilities

-Heavy industry - steel, brass, nitrates, explosives; additional environmental and handling safeguards, sectors being phased out in the West, not that easy to get back in line right away. Big industrial and chemical sectors in Russia.

Those were also covered in an article by British think tank RUSI, The return of industrial warfare

Japan is the latest source of shells, I think Israel and S. Korea might have been tapped out.

Thanks, those sound like good points.

Still, if you take the NATO countries, plus other aligned industrial countries, seems like together we could ramp up on the munitions, if given a year to do so. If we were sufficiently motivated.

I never thought I would catch myself saying that the government should spend more of my tax dollars on effing bullets!

Crazy war. It rivals WWI in terms of WTH-were-they-thinking. Vlad and others of his ilk = no bueno, but all parties could have handled this better, throughout the three-decade lead up.
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:

Yes, it's so unsustainable that it probably isn't true. If Ukraine had really lost that many soldiers they would have already lost the war.


What the shills fail to ever address is the fact that Russia has achieved none of the progress they've projected. After they could no longer deny the Kremlin's short term failures early in the war, they resorted to predicting victory a few months in the future. And yet here we are 500 days later and it's clear that Russia isn't days, weeks or months from winning and mat not even be years away, unless NATO abandons Ukraine the way the Putler fans desperately wish.

They like to point out Russia's advantages but have shown a complete inability to reckon with Russia's military flaws and those flaws are the reason Russia has lost ground over the past 15 months and why Russia's theoretical military advantages haven't produced any success.

The capture of Bakhmut was Russia's biggest victory since the early days of the war and now that Prigozhin has been unpersoned, the propaganda has flipped and they now have to claim that Bakhmut was just a vanity play and not of strategic importance. Their handlers don't bother pointing out that the firehose of falsehoods has eradicated prior falsehoods (1984 style) but serious observers see what is going on and know to disregard these people.

Meanwhile, if you want to know why Russia is losing this war, it's quite easy to ferret out. It's a toxic mix of corruption, fascist preferences for yes men over competent leaders, antiquated and ineffective control and command structure and a war with no domestic predicate. Russians don't want to fight this war.

The only answer the firehose provides is to make up casualty numbers for Ukraine and to avoid discussing Russian problems at all costs.







We see this with the excessive handwringing over cluster bombs as well. They haven't complained one whit about Russian cluster bombs, let alone war crimes, yet they pretend to be up in arms over the US providing them to Ukraine.

Cal88
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You were doing OK -sort of-, until whoever wrote this stuff (was it Tatyana in her Krakow live work, or Svetlana in a Lviv cafe?) went just a bit overboard...

Quote:

"Mobilised Russians from the 1452nd Regiment say they have been "sent for slaughter" against "Germans, Poles and Negroes", suffered heavy casualties in a Ukrainian encirclement, and that men who have lost arms or legs are being sent back to the front line to fight"

The cultural naivety here would be very funny if it weren't so tragic, because that's what the Ukraine war propaganda is based on, and the reason why it's been so successful to date.

And on what planet are Russian soldiers taking on Ukrainian tanks with rifles? one-armed one-legged soldiers, straight out of a bad pirate movie, I mean is the editor on vacation in Greece? Ukrainian armored columns have been getting crushed day after day for the past 5 weeks.

The Russians have the best attack helicopters in the world right now, able to destroy several tanks in succession in a single sortie from 15km out, and they also have the best drones in the world against tanks and armored vehicles, the Lancets, perfected over the last year, which they have been using to great effect.

The "Bradley Squares" in the southern front have been growing, At one point it was thought that Ukraine would stop these suicidal pointless attempts at breaching the greyzone, trying to storm mined fields on flat open terrain without air cover, but nooo, this is today's installment:





movielover
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Colonel Douglass McGregor says the Wagner crew easily taking out helicopters shows they should be deemphasized in the coming years.
bearister
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What 'Putin Wing' Ex-Colonel Douglas Macgregor Has Said About Ukraine War


https://www.newsweek.com/what-putin-wing-ex-colonel-douglas-macgregor-has-said-about-ukraine-war-1689802

Statements made by the General prior to 3/20/22:

"If they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them."

"The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle."

"The war is really over for the Ukrainians...they have been grounded to bits."

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Cal88
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movielover said:

Colonel Douglass McGregor says the Wagner crew easily taking out helicopters shows they should be deemphasized in the coming years.


The Ka-52s have done pretty well of late vs Ukrainian manpads, they are equipped with a new defensive system that has been working pretty well, but they can't operate in areas with Pantsirs or S-300s, which Wagner had. I think the issue in that case was that the piliots and their commanders didn't expect the Wagner operator to open fire.

That's the thing about "the 500 day war", it took Russia over a year to degrade Ukraine's AA capabilities, and now they have air superiority on the frontlines.
oski003
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BearHunter said:

oski003 said:

I read it. It is a firehose of NATO propaganda. I still don't understand how they will do it and why it is taking so long, absent they simply don't have the firepower to do it. I imagine this is where future clusterbombs and f16s come ins, in hopes that more weaponry will tip the scale in Ukraine's favor.


Last year, Jen Psaki said Russia using cluster ammunitions was a war crime.


The depth of Biden's evil knows no bounds.
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