Unit2Sucks said:

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Few quick hits today. People may recall the discussion of the ruble months ago. It's continuing to tank and is down 60% in the past year and about 30% measured against the pre-war level. The shills will tell you why this is great for Russia just like they told you that the Ruble appreciating against the dollar was great for Russia.

Looks like Wagner is on the move again, they're being removed from Belarus.

NEW: Speculations about the #WagnerGroup’s withdrawal from #Belarus suggest that aspects of the deal between #Putin and #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24 have collapsed. 🧵⬇️

Latest on #Ukraine: https://t.co/gWgxxYa2PP pic.twitter.com/14ITSVmwR8

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 9, 2023

Seeing more awful stories about Russian penal system and how they are using it to generate meat for the front lines. Somewhat horrifying details in this thread, so it's not for the faint of heart. The context for these negative stories is that Russia doesn't have to be in this war - they invaded a peaceable sovereign neighbor but it's not something they deeply believe in. I'm sure shills will respond with anecdotes of unhappy Ukrainian soldiers but it's not a symmetric argument.

1/ Widespread reports are emerging of a programme of forced military recruitment in Russian penal colonies, with prisoners being evaluated for their fitness to be drafted into 'Storm Z' assault units. Desperate convicts are said to be trying to contract HIV to avoid the draft. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/KCtSzfMw4e

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 8, 2023

More anecdotal data about the morale of Russian troops.

1/ Russian volunteer soldiers from Bashkortostan have complained about their mistreatment and their commanders' corruption, whom they say steal humanitarian aid and abuse female soldiers as 'field wives'. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/cKWkfTZpvd

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 8, 2023

1/ A mobilised Russian soldier has appealed to relatives for help after his commander allegedly ordered him to be killed by convicts, the day after his return from leave. His whereabouts are currently unknown. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/YpCQPY46OM

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 7, 2023

1/ Russian soldiers requesting medical treatment are being taken instead to a former Ukrainian prison in the occupied Luhansk region, where they are being imprisoned under the guise of being sent to a "rehabilitation centre". ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ATrMLvglty

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 7, 2023

Contract soldiers aged 45+ from Orenburg Oblast came to defend Motherland, for some reason, in Ukraine, but no one pays them. Now they can't afford to support their families and have to ask the president for help. pic.twitter.com/aktCnMbYCj

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 9, 2023

Here's a good reminder about the culture of lying that Putin's autocracy has created within the military. This is why so much of the made up data that is coming from Russian shills is laughably false.

Russian officer "Colonel Shuvalov" described on Telegram how it is encouraged to fabricate reports about destroyed Ukrainian equipment by filming strikes on different days using various weapons and equipment. This is done to please the upper leadership since everyone benefits… pic.twitter.com/F0GCzeqd6Z

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 9, 2023

A good recent example of this is the explosion at the factory near Moscow. Initially there were claims that Ukrainian drones were responsible and that this was a factory making, among other things, optics for the military and that perhaps there was also artillery being produced.

Russia officially claimed that fireworks were being stored there and that unsafe practices led to the explosion. I mean sure, I guess that's plausible but it's impossible to be convinced by anything Russia says at this point, with good reason.

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The war in Ukraine is a tragedy but you have to admit CNN coverage has been funny. Here’s it covering the stalled counteroffensive after continuously misleading viewers about the prospects of Ukrainian success.pic.twitter.com/y1tpTxCadO

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 10, 2023

The Hill: Alarm grows as Ukraine's counteroffensive falters
BY BRAD DRESS 08/10/23


"The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft said in a "Time" magazine piece that Ukrainian forces are outmanned and outgunned and need a "Plan B," which would include scaling back to focus on defense.

"Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a former football coach, gave voice to the growing skepticism, comparing Ukraine to "a junior high team playing a college team" in an interview with Fox News this week, adding: "They can't win." "

"Despite the sobering assessments U.S. officials are making anonymously in the media, the Biden administration maintains that Ukraine will recapture Russian-occupied territory and ultimately triumph."

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4148128-alarm-grows-as-ukraines-counteroffensive-falters/
"...

Biden Vows To Sacrifice As Many Ukrainian Lives As It Takes To Defeat Russia https://t.co/6LFkxbrCnX pic.twitter.com/elaTj25TGP

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) August 9, 2023

movielover said:

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The Hill: Alarm grows as Ukraine's counteroffensive falters
BY BRAD DRESS 08/10/23


"The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft said in a "Time" magazine piece that Ukrainian forces are outmanned and outgunned and need a "Plan B," which would include scaling back to focus on defense.

"Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a former football coach, gave voice to the growing skepticism, comparing Ukraine to "a junior high team playing a college team" in an interview with Fox News this week, adding: "They can't win." "

"Despite the sobering assessments U.S. officials are making anonymously in the media, the Biden administration maintains that Ukraine will recapture Russian-occupied territory and ultimately triumph."

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4148128-alarm-grows-as-ukraines-counteroffensive-falters/
"...

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Perhaps this former football coach Senator is better at assessing a war than his lawyer colleagues, though his take of Jr high vs college is a bit extreme, it's more like a powerhouse P5 vs a mid-major.

Ukraine doesn't have a military solution, Russia is getting stronger, while Ukraine is getting depleted, both in personnel and equipment. The cracks are starting to show, with the northern front defense now struggling to hold Russian advances.

The Russians have been holding out their reserves as a deterrent to a Polish-led escalation, though they are starting to inject more resources into the northern front, taking advantage of the terrain (Ukrainian position hemmed down by the Oskil river, running the risk of being trapped). An objective for Russia here could be Kharkov, Ukraine's second largest city, which they could encircle this winter.

The Ukrainian morale is starting to fray, as the relentless almost Baghdad Bobish domestic propaganda is starting to meet the reality of the massive and still growing casualty toll.

The decision to stop this war is in DC, but with the nomination of Nuland as #2 in the State Dept, the warmonger faction could be even stronger now. The realist faction is led by Burns and Milley. Biden might want to cut his losses now instead of having to face more decisive Ukrainian military defeats during the elections cycle. Or, prodded by the neocons, he might double down and escalate with a "coalition of the willing", putting the world one big step closer to a warm war between the top two nuclear powers...

We all know that Russia has significantly underperformed since February 2022.

We also all know that they would/will eventually defeat Ukraine, barring... a) even far more massive infusions of military strength from NATO and/or... b) suddenly losing the will to continue

And yet some people persist in arguing either "a" or "b" above, like the other one wasn't also true.

Sad. The whole thing is sad. And for what? Eff Vladimir Putin. Eff Russia. And eff everybody in the US/NATO that might be egging them on, thinking this war might serve a larger geopolitical purpose. But if you want to know really sad, imagine if this war doesn't remain contained, or goes nuclear. Thanks for nothing, guys.

movielover said:

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What's the Nuland change?

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She has just been promoted to Deputy Secretary of State, the #2 position in that administration, replacing Wendy Sherman, who was a bit less of a neocon fanatic.

I don't agree that Russia has significantly underperformed. Their strategies appear different, cautious, and prioritizing lives over land.

Colonel McGregor has also repeatedly mentioned the calculation that if Russia moved too quickly, it might provoke a direct response from NATO and / or the US.

Poland and the UK may be the only entities itching to join the war. If Poland tries to enter independently from NATO, if that is even possible, Russia has 300k troops in reserve, 80,000 new volunteers, and Belarus.

What's NATO going to use, nukes? Meanwhile, the MIC is asking for $25 Billion more. Germany and France reeling internally?

Cal88 said:

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Big C said:

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We all know that Russia has significantly underperformed since February 2022.

We also all know that they would/will eventually defeat Ukraine, barring... a) even far more massive infusions of military strength from NATO and/or... b) suddenly losing the will to continue

And yet some people persist in arguing either "a" or "b" above, like the other one wasn't also true.

Sad. The whole thing is sad. And for what? Eff Vladimir Putin. Eff Russia. And eff everybody in the US/NATO that might be egging them on, thinking this war might serve a larger geopolitical purpose. But if you want to know really sad, imagine if this war doesn't remain contained, or goes nuclear. Thanks for nothing, guys.

---

Well said, good rant. We agree on the bottom line - the need for this war to be stopped, and the massive risks of escalation.

We disagree on two points:

1- I have argued, as did a number of keep geopolitical observers including the current head of the CIA William Burns, that the move to bring Ukraine into NATO, and weaponize it against Russia by fostering radical Ukrainian nationalism rooted in 1930s UPA/OUN ideology hostile to its large Russian minority was a recipe for civil war at home and a future military confrontation with Russia.

Quote:

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The present crisis has its roots in a long-brewing contest over Ukraine's geopolitical alignment. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine became independent but for decades joined neither with Russia nor with the West. The United States, for its part, expanded its NATO alliance but initially sidestepped Ukraine. It recognized that Russia, sharing deep ties and a 1,426-mile land border with Ukraine, might oppose such a move by force. "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)," William J. Burns, then U.S. ambassador to Russia and current CIA director, cabled from Moscow in 2008. "I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

---

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/23/ukraine-taiwan-red-lines/


2- the "operational" and military aspects, the Russians having military escalatory dominance and actually more skin in the game than NATO at large. That in fact was Obama's position as well, and the reason why he chose not to escalate after Russia annexed Crimea under his watch in 2014.

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We do disagree on two points, but not the ones you cite.

(I have spoken against the idea of Ukraine being n NATO -- or even talk of it -- since long before this thread. In fact, since the idea was first broached in the 1990s. Poland, yes. Further east, no. That was only going to create tensions. Also agree with Obama's point that Ukraine is within the sphere of Russia's vital interests, but not ours.)

The two points we disagree on:

1- I call out Putin (and any of those Russians in power, behind the scenes) for being the main cause of this war.

2- I seriously doubt that the situation within Russia is as rosy as you portray it.

Still, respect.

43,000 casualties for a few hundred yards is not a viable strategy, they need to stop this suicidal approach, pushed by NATO.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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43,000 casualties for a few hundred yards is not a viable strategy, they need to stop this suicidal approach, pushed by NATO.

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So you're claiming Ukraine has had 43,000 casualties in the last week?

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43,000 casualties since the start of the counteroffensive in early June.

Big C said:

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I seriously doubt that the situation within Russia is as rosy as you portray it.

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Understatement of the year. The Ruble has been a freefall this year and you have to squint really hard to ignore the impact of this war and sanctions on Russia's economy.

I would imagine the response would be that the fall of the ruble means nothing, except the shills were over the moon with joy at the ruble's performance last year claiming it the most stable and best-performing currency in the world as evidence that Russia's economy was strong. It's down 1/3 against the dollar since the end of last year and it is yet to be seen whether Russia's emergency measures today will stop the bleeding.

From Bloomberg:

Quote:

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Russia's central bank called an extraordinary meeting Tuesday after the ruble crashed through the level of 100 to the dollar for the first time since March of last year as Russia's war in Ukraine drags on and international sanctions hit trade.
...
The exchange rate has emerged as the barometer of health for an economy battered by shrinking export revenues and its isolation from international financial markets, bringing infighting between the government and central bank into the open.
...
Kremlin economic aide Maxim Oreshkin blamed the central bank for contributing to the depreciation, an unusual rebuke made public just moments before the Russian currency broke through 100 to the dollar. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly cited deterioration in trade as the main reason for the ruble's weakness.

---

There is a lot of movement across the fronts with each side seeing some measure of success. Will be quite interesting to see what's what when the dust settles. Russia has made some advances near Kupyansk and Ukraine has made progress in quite a few areas (Urozhaine, among others) but the impact is as yet too early to determine. Many say that Ukraine ultimately hopes to isolate Crimea from Russia so that they can take the fighting there to push out Russian forces.

Some (including ISW) say that Ukraine is forcing Russia to make a decision to redeploy its forces laterally so that Ukraine can exploit the decision (think run pass option in football).

As yet another reminder of Russian weakness, would they be sending dudes like this to be cannon fodder if they were doing as well as the shills pretend?

A bottle of cold water is all that this person now has. Do you know what is going to happen to them next? Nothing. They will be not worthy of exchange like thousands of POWs currently unwanted by Russia, so they'll stay at a camp wearing a robe for quite some time. They are…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 14, 2023

A lot of the disinformation is coming from what are essentially military keyboard jockeys cranking out fantasy work on Telegram, that then finds it way into whatever unreliable firehose the shills choose to drink from.

Russian military blogger Roman Saponkov, using an example of a small channel that boasted about Russian success in Urozhaine, explains how Russian informational campaigns try to shut down any author that attempts to tell the truth, and deliberately spread "positive news".… pic.twitter.com/98xcsk2PgW

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 14, 2023

No reasonable person could claim things are going to plan for Russia 530+ days into its 3 day war.

EDIT: Forgot to mention, thousands of Russians (almost entirely young adults, many wealthy) are trying to cross the southern border into the US every month, a huge increase from before the criminal invasion of Ukraine. Does anyone think this is good for Russia? Here's an article from February. Another from March. Another.

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many Americans want to move to Russia lol?

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 537 | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/14/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-537

Cal88 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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43,000 casualties for a few hundred yards is not a viable strategy, they need to stop this suicidal approach, pushed by NATO.

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So you're claiming Ukraine has had 43,000 casualties in the last week?

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43,000 casualties since the start of the counteroffensive in early June.

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Movielover was talking about Ukraine gaining a few hundred yards in a week, not the last 2.5 months. You're mixing apples and oranges.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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43,000 casualties for a few hundred yards is not a viable strategy, they need to stop this suicidal approach, pushed by NATO.

---

So you're claiming Ukraine has had 43,000 casualties in the last week?

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43,000 casualties since the start of the counteroffensive in early June.

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Movielover was talking about Ukraine gaining a few hundred yards in a week, not the last 2.5 months.You're mixing apples and oranges.

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They have gained ten miles, or 17,000 yards, in their entire counteroffensive. It is about 3 dead Ukrainians per yard.

Unit2Sucks said:

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Big C said:

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I seriously doubt that the situation within Russia is as rosy as you portray it.

---

Understatement of the year. The Ruble has been a freefall this year and you have to squint really hard to ignore the impact of this war and sanctions on Russia's economy.

I would imagine the response would be that the fall of the ruble means nothing, except the shills were over the moon with joy at the ruble's performance last year claiming it the most stable and best-performing currency in the world as evidence that Russia's economy was strong. It's down 1/3 against the dollar since the end of last year and it is yet to be seen whether Russia's emergency measures today will stop the bleeding.

From Bloomberg:

Quote:

---

Russia's central bank called an extraordinary meeting Tuesday after the ruble crashed through the level of 100 to the dollar for the first time since March of last year as Russia's war in Ukraine drags on and international sanctions hit trade.
...
The exchange rate has emerged as the barometer of health for an economy battered by shrinking export revenues and its isolation from international financial markets, bringing infighting between the government and central bank into the open.
...
Kremlin economic aide Maxim Oreshkin blamed the central bank for contributing to the depreciation, an unusual rebuke made public just moments before the Russian currency broke through 100 to the dollar. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly cited deterioration in trade as the main reason for the ruble's weakness.

---

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The main reason for the Ruble's decline vs the US$ is that the US$ is at a 20-yr high, due to higher US interest rates and global instability:

Quote:

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Near the tail end of an unstable year for the global economy, the U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high in value.

A number of factors, both domestic and international, have contributed to the strength of USD. Though economic conditions could shift in 2023, experts predict the dollar will hold a strong position.

---

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/us-dollar-forecast-2023/

The Ruble is in the same position as the Japanese Yen or the Chinese Yuan, these two currencies today being roughly the same value as the Ruble was pre-war:


The Russian monetary authorities have the power to boost the Ruble on the market, they won't because a lot of the exports are denominated in US dollar - even when China or India pay for Russian oil in Rubles, the value in Rubles is set by the equivalent in US$, so the lower the Ruble vs the US$, the more Rubles (or Yuan) Russia gets for its oil and gas. That's also why China doesn't bother boosting its Yuan. Same with Japan, which has used the weak Yen to right its trade situation:

Quote:

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Japan's balance of trade unexpectedly swung to its first surplus since July 2021, an outcome that should help ease pressure on the economy's recovery, though risks remain for the growth outlook. The trade surplus came to 43 billion yen ($308 million) in June, the finance ministry said Thursday.

---

Quote:

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Quote:

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There is a lot of movement across the fronts with each side seeing some measure of success. Will be quite interesting to see what's what when the dust settles. Russia has made some advances near Kupyansk and Ukraine has made progress in quite a few areas (Urozhaine, among others) but the impact is as yet too early to determine. Many say that Ukraine ultimately hopes to isolate Crimea from Russia so that they can take the fighting there to push out Russian forces.

Some (including ISW) say that Ukraine is forcing Russia to make a decision to redeploy its forces laterally so that Ukraine can exploit the decision (think run pass option in football).

As yet another reminder of Russian weakness, would they be sending dudes like this to be cannon fodder if they were doing as well as the shills pretend?

A bottle of cold water is all that this person now has. Do you know what is going to happen to them next? Nothing. They will be not worthy of exchange like thousands of POWs currently unwanted by Russia, so they'll stay at a camp wearing a robe for quite some time. They are…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 14, 2023

---

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One more time, same pattern in your tweets: take an anecdotal snippet and
(1) extrapolate that it's a generalized phenomenon,
(2) pretend that the situation is not much worse in Ukraine (projection).

Russia has far more Ukrainian POWs than the other way around, over 4,000. As well, the average age of Ukrainian soldiers is older, and they often are in worse shape, and of course many have been forcibly conscripted, gang-pressed off the streets.

And it is Ukraine that has been using its troops as cannon fodder, sending column after column onto mined fields with no air cover. Spin doctors like that Dmitri guy are well aware of this.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-12541713

"Ukraine war latest: Kyiv slams NATO official's 'absolutely unacceptable' suggestion of giving up land for membership

Ukraine could agree to give up some of its territory occupied by Russia to secure the peace it needs to join NATO, according to an alliance official - a suggestion Kyiv has branded "ridiculous"."


Yet more confirmation that NATO knows Ukraine can't win. Would be heart breaking for Ukraine to lose the territories that it already agreed to give self-determination to and suffer utter devastation while their NATO "friends" achieve their objectives of weakening Russia and moving the NATO line eastward. With friends like these who needs enemies.

Zippergate said:

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https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-12541713

"Ukraine war latest: Kyiv slams NATO official's 'absolutely unacceptable' suggestion of giving up land for membership

Ukraine could agree to give up some of its territory occupied by Russia to secure the peace it needs to join NATO, according to an alliance official - a suggestion Kyiv has branded "ridiculous"."


Yet more confirmation that NATO knows Ukraine can't win. Would be heart breaking for Ukraine to lose the territories that it already agreed to give self-determination to and suffer utter devastation while their NATO "friends" achieve their objectives of weakening Russia and moving the NATO line eastward. With friends like these who needs enemies.

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I thought Ukraine was an unwitting pawn to NATO's plan to go to war with Russia? Or do they have their own agency and goals?

sycasey said:

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Zippergate said:

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https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-12541713

"Ukraine war latest: Kyiv slams NATO official's 'absolutely unacceptable' suggestion of giving up land for membership

Ukraine could agree to give up some of its territory occupied by Russia to secure the peace it needs to join NATO, according to an alliance official - a suggestion Kyiv has branded "ridiculous"."


Yet more confirmation that NATO knows Ukraine can't win. Would be heart breaking for Ukraine to lose the territories that it already agreed to give self-determination to and suffer utter devastation while their NATO "friends" achieve their objectives of weakening Russia and moving the NATO line eastward. With friends like these who needs enemies.

---

I thought Ukraine was an unwitting pawn to NATO's plan to go to war with Russia? Or do they have their own agency and goals?

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When you're trying to control and aim a firehouse of falsehoods, sometimes you contradict your rationalizations.

Ukraine is run by a coalition of corrupt leaders like Zelensky and Reznikov, with radical Azov nationalist types as their muscle. Both of these factions are on board with fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian, to the detriment of their nation's well-being and that of its average citizen.

Don't forget American Big Ag and Blackrock want large chunks of that cheap, world-class soil.

To the proxy war apologists, I would love to hear what part of this summary of the Ukraine situation you think is false.

Ep. 16 RFK Jr. explains Ukraine, bio-labs, and who killed his uncle pic.twitter.com/RMr5VZVqSM

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) August 14, 2023

(Ukraine bit starts at 12:30)

I only listened to part of it so far, but this shows how corrupt the Democrats and UniParty are.

THEY WON'T GIVE RFK Jr. a SECRET SERVICE DETAIL!!!

First time in history that request has been turned down.

movielover said:

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I only listened to part of it so far, but this shows how corrupt the Democrats and UniParty are.

THEY WON'T GIVE RFK Jr. a SECRET SERVICE DETAIL!!!

First time in history that request has been turned down.

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Do they give any candidate that asks a Secret Service Detail? There were over 1200 registered Presidential candidates in 2020. That calls for a lot of agents.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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movielover said:

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I only listened to part of it so far, but this shows how corrupt the Democrats and UniParty are.

THEY WON'T GIVE RFK Jr. a SECRET SERVICE DETAIL!!!

First time in history that request has been turned down.

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Do they give any candidate that asks a Secret Service Detail? There were over 1200 registered Presidential candidates in 2020. That calls for a lot of agents.

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I believe major candidates and only within 120 days of the presidential election. A bit too soon for him to be requesting secret service detail.