The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

939,353 Views | 10272 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Cal88
sonofabear51
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Agreed.
Start Slowly and taper off
Big C
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Cal88 said:

10% For The Big Guy said:



2M views on a video published today, impressive.

Macgregor is a real American hero, he's a warrior who knows what he's talking about, and who hasn't sold out to the MIC gravy train.

@BigC, @bearister et al, this right here is your best source of expert and sane information about Ukraine in the English language. You need to watch this, at the very least the first 15min-25min - I'd be very interested in your feedback here.

Fair enough. I will check it out tomorrow, after I sober up and get a good night's sleep.
bearister
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Did my best to get through it but when the Col. got bogged down in details of how unprepared our troops are to fight a conventional war (undoubtedly true), I couldn't bear it anymore so I jumped around.

Some of my takeaways:

1. He says it is likely American troops will be put on the ground in that conflict. IMHO that would be a serious mistake and I see it as unlikely as well as a bad move.*

2. MacGregor said the Russians are holding back troops because they fear the Americans are sending troops. Is that Russian fear a bad thing? I say let the Russians keep holding back.

3. The Col. makes a point of putting Ukrainian casualties at 400k. The estimates are all over the place depending on the source.

What is his source?

Is it a source approved of by Russia?

Why didn't he mention the amount of Russian casualties and is that omission a "tell" of his bias?

Undoubtedly the aggregate casualties number is horrific and both sides are lying about their respective numbers and putting their spin on it.

4. He said that Ukrainian troops are starting to surrender and that they have known that from the very beginning of the war that the Russians will treat them "fairly and gently."

Is that true?

What is his source of information for that statement?

If it is true, it appears that the Russians have had a major change of approach to how they have waged war throughout history.

5. At one point in the interview he states, "As tRump said, "Stop the killing." I can only interpret that statement as a gratuitous endorsement of tRump. It also led me to assume that he will vote for tRump for president in 2024. I have a difficult time considering anyone a serious person that I would listen to and take advice from if they still support tRump (or ever did for that matter).

6. Early in the interview the Col. says he is very concerned "on humanitarian" grounds that the conflict end immediately. After having read about his background and views, I don't think that is one of his major concerns with regard to the urgency of ending the conflict.





* Why the US won't send troops to Ukraine - Vox

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/25/22949351/ukraine-russia-us-troops-no-fly-zone-nuclear-weapons
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Kamala Harris Cackling
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bearister said:

Did my best to get through it but when the Col. got bogged down in details of how unprepared our troops are to fight a conventional war (undoubtedly true), I couldn't bear it anymore so I jumped around.

Some of my takeaways:

1. He says it is likely American troops will be put on the ground in that conflict. IMHO that would be a serious mistake and I see it as unlikely as well as a bad move.*

2. MacGregor said the Russians are holding back troops because they fear the Americans are sending troops. Is that Russian fear a bad thing? I say let the Russians keep holding back.

3. The Col. makes a point of putting Ukrainian casualties at 400k. The estimates are all over the place depending on the source.

What is his source?

Is it a source approved of by Russia?

Why didn't he mention the amount of Russian casualties and is that omission a "tell" of his bias?

Undoubtedly the aggregate casualties number is horrific and both sides are lying about their respective numbers and putting their spin on it.

4. He said that Ukrainian troops are starting to surrender and that they have known that from the very beginning of the war that the Russians will treat them "fairly and gently."

Is that true?

What is his source of information for that statement?

If it is true, it appears that the Russians have had a major change of approach to how they have waged war throughout history.

5. At one point in the interview he states, "As tRump said, "Stop the killing." I can only interpret that statement as a gratuitous endorsement of tRump. It also led me to assume that he will vote for tRump for president in 2024. I have a difficult time considering anyone a serious person that I would listen to and take advice from if they still support tRump (or ever did for that matter).

6. Early in the interview the Col. says he is very concerned "on humanitarian" grounds that the conflict end immediately. After having read about his background and views, I don't think that is one of his major concerns with regard to the urgency of ending the conflict.





* Why the US won't send troops to Ukraine - Vox

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/25/22949351/ukraine-russia-us-troops-no-fly-zone-nuclear-weapons

https://media2.giphy.com/media/SYrRj1PjH1WPS/giphy.gif
movielover
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Later in the interview he put the Russian KIA at 50,000 and possibly 40-50,000 injured. Russia has fought a defensive war. Months ago before the latest counteroffensive, his sources put Ukrainian KIA at 350,000. He has friends in Poland, consults internationally, has provided guidance to Israel, and has sources in the Pentagon.
Unit2Sucks
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540+ days into Putin's 3-day war, things are continuing to go to plan.

Surovikin was sacked - probably relating to the Prigozhin mutiny that he is said to have been involved in on some level, but perhaps it's for underperformance. Putin goes through commanders faster than Trump went through cabinet members.

Meanwhile, Russia's continuing to conduct shadow mobilizations - like in this video showing them rounding up people in Moscow. It's noted that they focus on mobilizing non-white citizens because there is no one who matters to lobby for them. And it is looking more and more likely they will have another general mobilization next month. This is just what success looks like. No different from Russia having an infinite supply of arms and logistics and yet sending soldiers to the front lines without proper equipment or food and begging North Korea for obsolete munitions. Anyone who believes otherwise is a NATO propagandist.





Russia's milbloggers, who generally have a pretty rosy view of Russia's efforts, are more and more sounding the alarm about how the war is going for Russia.

Even if you pretend that Russia is marching toward "victory" in this war there is no debating that war is awful and right now Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world are all losing. Nothing good will come from this, except perhaps in any deterrent effect this may have in the future and some sort of sovereignty remaining for Ukraine. Everyone (except Putin and the people he defenestrates) will celebrate the end of fighting, but no one will look back upon the war fondly.


bearister
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Al Jazeera backs the 50k Russian dead but has a lower figure than that for Ukrainians. Col. MacGregor's neutrality and credibility is beyond reproach on this issue, is it not?
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bearister
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Similar to Vietnam in this way:

Russia fed arms and money to soldiers with psychotic fervor that were willing to fight a foreign invader until they prevailed. The Russians had a hand in the death and maiming of tens of thousands of American boys.

America is feeding arms and money to soldiers with psychotic fervor that are willing to fight a foreign invader until they prevail. America has a hand in the death and maiming of tens of thousands of Russian boys……and karma is a b@itch.

*With regard to MacGregor's statement that Russians are treating Ukrainian POWs "fairly and gently" :

Ukrainian and Russian POWs tortured and ill-treated: OHCHR | UN News


https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130657

*…and the Ukrainians treat Russian POWs brutally.

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Cal88
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bearister said:

Al Jazeera backs the 50k Russian dead but has a lower figure than that for Ukrainians. Col. MacGregor's neutrality and credibility is beyond reproach on this issue, is it not?

Macgregor has had long-running work relationships and friendships with NATO brass, brothers in arms from his Gulf campaigns who are still in the loop, that's where he gets his info.

One data point that sheds some light on the scale of Ukrainian losses is the figure of between 40k and 50k Ukrainian war amputees, here is one account from a pro-Ukrainian source:
Quote:

During the 17 months of the full-scale war, about 50,000 Ukrainians have lost their arms or legs, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing estimates by the world's largest prosthetic manufacturer, the German company Ottobock, and its medical partners.

The WSJ article states that the actual number of amputees may be higher, as prosthetics take time to be made, and some victims wait weeks or even months after being injured for amputation.

In addition, prosthetics can cost up to 50,000Euro, and the Ukrainian government pays up to 20,000Euro to each injured soldier. Civilians often cannot afford treatment and are forced to turn to charitable organizations.
https://gwaramedia.com/en/50-000-ukrainians-have-lost-arms-or-legs-due-to-war/

Parenthesis - I have a good friend who lost his leg as a result of being run over in a police car chase gone wrong about 10 years ago. He went to Europe and got one of these high-end prosthetic legs, his was $60k, from Austria and not Germany actually, said it was the best manufacturer on the market. One nice feature on that leg is that you could switch the knee and ankle flex pattern from walk mode to bike mode, they are very well suited for cycling. Bottom line, he needs to have a new leg done, but the wait times have increased tremendously due to the Ukrainian demand.

There is no way you can have 50k war amputees and less than 300k KIAs. As a comparison, France ended WW1 with 52,000 war amputees - and 1.4 million KIAs. Not saying that Ukraine has anywhere near 1,4M killed, but that figures in the 400,000 range seem fairly reasonable in relation to the huge number of amputees.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

540+ days into Putin's 3-day war, things are continuing to go to plan.

Surovikin was sacked - probably relating to the Prigozhin mutiny that he is said to have been involved in on some level, but perhaps it's for underperformance. Putin goes through commanders faster than Trump went through cabinet members.

Meanwhile, Russia's continuing to conduct shadow mobilizations - like in this video showing them rounding up people in Moscow. It's noted that they focus on mobilizing non-white citizens because there is no one who matters to lobby for them. And it is looking more and more likely they will have another general mobilization next month. This is just what success looks like. No different from Russia having an infinite supply of arms and logistics and yet sending soldiers to the front lines without proper equipment or food and begging North Korea for obsolete munitions. Anyone who believes otherwise is a NATO propagandist.

Russia's milbloggers, who generally have a pretty rosy view of Russia's efforts, are more and more sounding the alarm about how the war is going for Russia.

Even if you pretend that Russia is marching toward "victory" in this war there is no debating that war is awful and right now Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world are all losing. Nothing good will come from this, except perhaps in any deterrent effect this may have in the future and some sort of sovereignty remaining for Ukraine. Everyone (except Putin and the people he defenestrates) will celebrate the end of fighting, but no one will look back upon the war fondly.



Surovikin has been rumored to be pretty close to Prigozhin, so that story might not be so far-fetched. Nevertheless, Surovikin has performed pretty well, so I'd wait until the dust settles, and that rumor of his demotion is confirmed.

Quote:

540+ days into Putin's 3-day war, things are continuing to go to plan.

In case you haven't noticed yet, the plan for Russia has been to conduct and win a war of attrition on Ukraine, pressing its huge edge in military resources, ever since the knockout punch attempt in the early phase of the war failed as a result of direct NATO intervention to scuttle the Istanbul peace negotiations. Russia has been winning this war of attrition, clearly so since winter, if you care enough to look at this objectively.

Top US intel honcho William Burns was quoted in a recent article saying that he has been spending the first half hour of every workday on the phone scouring sources of ammo for Ukraine across the world, from places like Pakistan, Egypt, Morocco or Sudan.

The Russians don't have to beg the North Koreans for ammunition, they can get them anytime, in exchange for oil, fertilizer, wheat, iron ore or a dozen other resources and products they produce in droves. So far they haven't had to rely on them, but there is no doubt that N. Korea and China, who have the world's largest stockpiles of ammo, constitute a strategic reserve for Russia.

One of the main sources of TNT for the US and many NATO countries before the war was from Zarya, a Ukrainian producer based in the Luhansk district - which is now in Russia.
Zippergate
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Unit2Sucks said:

540+ days into Putin's 3-day war, things are continuing to go to plan.

Surovikin was sacked - probably relating to the Prigozhin mutiny that he is said to have been involved in on some level, but perhaps it's for underperformance. Putin goes through commanders faster than Trump went through cabinet members.

Meanwhile, Russia's continuing to conduct shadow mobilizations - like in this video showing them rounding up people in Moscow. It's noted that they focus on mobilizing non-white citizens because there is no one who matters to lobby for them. And it is looking more and more likely they will have another general mobilization next month. This is just what success looks like. No different from Russia having an infinite supply of arms and logistics and yet sending soldiers to the front lines without proper equipment or food and begging North Korea for obsolete munitions. Anyone who believes otherwise is a NATO propagandist.





Russia's milbloggers, who generally have a pretty rosy view of Russia's efforts, are more and more sounding the alarm about how the war is going for Russia.

Even if you pretend that Russia is marching toward "victory" in this war there is no debating that war is awful and right now Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world are all losing. Nothing good will come from this, except perhaps in any deterrent effect this may have in the future and some sort of sovereignty remaining for Ukraine. Everyone (except Putin and the people he defenestrates) will celebrate the end of fighting, but no one will look back upon the war fondly.



Putin's big mistake was underestimating NATO/neocon support for the war. Putin thought military realities (Ukraine cannot expel the Russians) and humanitarian concerns would draw all sides to the negotiating table. But as has been proven many times, these warmongers have no interest peace, only power. The only skin in the game they have is other people's money and other people's lives--in other words, none. So they will press the proxy war until there is a military resolution one way or another.
chazzed
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If accurate, this is an interesting development:
Cal88
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Wagner head Prigozhin reportedly killed in a plane crash.

BearHunter
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chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:
Did your favorite American propaganda sources confirm this?
sycasey
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chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:

bearister
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Cal88 said:

Wagner head Prigozhin reportedly killed in a plane crash.




Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin listed as passenger on plane which crashed with no survivors, Russian aviation authority says live


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/aug/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-drones-downed-moscow?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


…that story came from the Well That is a Big F@ucking Surprise Department

*I'm convinced more than ever after this that Putin is a good guy that is a victim of bad press. The reluctance of the Ukrainian people to have him as their Fearless Leader makes no sense to me.

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Eastern Oregon Bear
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BearHunter said:

chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:
Did your favorite American propaganda sources confirm this?
No, your pal Cal88 confirmed it.
BearHunter
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Cal88 is ChatGPT.
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:

chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:


This is totally normal for a successful democracy running a war campaign to plan. If you aren't using numerous extra-judicial killings to keep people in line, are you even trying? Just the hallmark of a healthy and functional democracy.



Ukraine took down an S-400 battery in Crimea today. More good news for Russia - since they have so much industrial capacity this will just allow them to replace that system with a bunch of new ones. They will be stronger than ever.



Here's a grenade from a cheap drone destroying a Russian ammo stockpile. Russia getting stronger by the minute!



You should be very skeptical of all the clowns who complain about the US prosecuting people under the rule of law like Texeira and Snowden while they support a Russian regime that feeds off of extra-judicial killings.

It also looks like the purge of Surovikin and liquidation of Prigozhin/Utkin and others is the result of an internal power struggle. In a dictatorship like Russia, it's far more important to curry favor with your dictator than to be good at your job.


oski003
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Unit2Sucks said:

sycasey said:

chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:


This is totally normal for a successful democracy running a war campaign to plan. If you aren't using numerous extra-judicial killings to keep people in line, are you even trying? Just the hallmark of a healthy and functional democracy.



Ukraine took down an S-400 battery in Crimea today. More good news for Russia - since they have so much industrial capacity this will just allow them to replace that system with a bunch of new ones. They will be stronger than ever.



Here's a grenade from a cheap drone destroying a Russian ammo stockpile. Russia getting stronger by the minute!



You should be very skeptical of all the clowns who complain about the US prosecuting people under the rule of law like Texeira and Snowden while they support a Russian regime that feeds off of extra-judicial killings.

It also looks like the purge of Surovikin and liquidation of Prigozhin/Utkin and others is the result of an internal power struggle. In a dictatorship like Russia, it's far more important to curry favor with your dictator than to be good at your job.





I am incredibly skeptical of a war hawk like yourself biased enough to label someone slicing through your pro-war propaganda as supporting the Russian regime. Did everyone protesting the Vietnam war support Ho Chi Minh and/or Communism?
tequila4kapp
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"Crashed"... like the plane just fell from the sky. Riiiiiiiiight.
chazzed
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BearHunter said:

chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:
Did your favorite American propaganda sources confirm this?
It seems like my "propaganda" source was right, eh, comrade?

If this forum is too reality-centric for you, there's the door. As difficult as it would be, we would find a way to trudge on without you.
oski003
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chazzed said:

BearHunter said:

chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:
Did your favorite American propaganda sources confirm this?
It seems like my "propaganda" source was right, eh, comrade?

If this forum is too reality-centric for you, there's the door. As difficult as it would be, we would find a way to trudge on without you.


Should we show everyone the door who questions anything and is kind of wrong? If so, we'd have to trudge on with a handful of posters.
BearHunter
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chazzed said:

BearHunter said:

chazzed said:

If accurate, this is an interesting development:
Did your favorite American propaganda sources confirm this?
It seems like my "propaganda" source was right, eh, comrade?

If this forum is too reality-centric for you, there's the door. As difficult as it would be, we would find a way to trudge on without you.

Comrade, I sold all my rubles to DiabloWags before he left Antioch and flew to Ukraine to help Zelensky.
movielover
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"When you strike at a king, you must kill him."

Ralph Waldo Emerson

P.S. If he's dead. A sharp guy, a less refined Oleg Deripaska.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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movielover said:

"When you strike at a king, you must kill him."

Ralph Waldo Emerson


That might be relevant if Trump was a king. So far, that's just his personal delusion.
Big C
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tequila4kapp said:

"Crashed"... like the plane just fell from the sky. Riiiiiiiiight.

Wow, he merited special treatment: Normally they just accidentally ingest some poison, or accidentally fall out a window.

My question would be, had Lloyd's of London written a life insurance policy on him (since the mini-rebellion) and if so, wow, how high were those premiums?
Big C
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Uh oh, maybe it's not like it seems. This from Dasha Litvinova, writing for the Associated Press:

" ... multiple individuals have changed their names to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels. Let's not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa."

(author is quoting Keir Giles, some Russian expert from some think-tank)


So it coulda been Prigozhin3 or Prigozhin14 or even another one on board that plane. Gotta love the intrigue from those Rooskies!
sycasey
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Big C said:


Uh oh, maybe it's not like it seems. This from Dasha Litvinova, writing for the Associated Press:

" ... multiple individuals have changed their names to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels. Let's not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa."

(author is quoting Keir Giles, some Russian expert from some think-tank)


So it coulda been Prigozhin3 or Prigozhin14 or even another one on board that plane. Gotta love the intrigue from those Rooskies!
He learned all his tricks from Yogi.
Unit2Sucks
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I wonder if Putin ever gets tired of all of the winning.



full text:
Quote:

hey ayden... looking for a russian "experts" take on this... 1. ukranian commandos are in crimea 2. long range rockets in crimea were hit 3. russia has lost 10 times more land than they took last year 4. russian units are refusing to move 5. vid of russians smoking dope and refusing to take orders shows up 6. wagner broken 7. ukraine troops still on the left bank 8. russian rail hacked 9. drones over moscow every day now 10. russian long range aircraft moved to eastern russia out of fear. 11. crimea bridge now restricted over damage and incoming rockets. 12. 3 more senior commanders in the russian army dead or under house arrest. 13. the LAST major mobile reserve in the south (7th airborne) has been moved to zap and now is taking heavy losses without stopping the ukr advance.... 14. reports say the 2nd and 47th divisions in the north attack (russian) are exhausted and can not push forward due to losses.. 15. russia used a lancent on a T90M... a russian T90M (friendly fire) 16. ukraine has breached the russian line at 3 places 17. wagner is on the move for revenge 19. a great Parady account has popped up on twitter 20. turkey has offically (as policy) stated that the pre 2014 ukraine borders are the legal borders. 21. putin was too scared to show up at BRICS 22. the number of F16s to ukraine is nearing 100. all this week, and we have 3 days to go. so is russia winning still? asking for a friend

Cal88
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No amount of firehose of wild exaggerations and PR stunts can hide this bottom line, that Ukraine has no military solution, and is being used as cannon fodder.

-350,000+ Killed in action
-At least as many wounded, including 50,000 amputees.

Enough already, get it stopped.
blungld
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Cal88 said:

No amount of firehose of wild exaggerations and PR stunts can hide this bottom line, that Ukraine has no military solution, and is being used as cannon fodder.

-350,000+ Killed in action
-At least as many wounded, including 50,000 amputees.

Enough already, get it stopped.
"Get it stopped" so Russia can get what they rightfully deserve without any more sacrifice for the land and resources they are stealing!
sycasey
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I dunno, seems like it would be pretty easy for Russia to stop the war.
oski003
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sycasey said:

I dunno, seems like it would be pretty easy for Russia to stop the war.


Ukraine can't stop the war because they feel Russia would push further, even while at peace? Russia won't accept a demarcation within their currently held territory?
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

I dunno, seems like it would be pretty easy for Russia to stop the war.


Ukraine can't stop the war because they feel Russia would push further, even while at peace? Russia won't accept a demarcation within their currently held territory?

Excuse me, which country invaded which?
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