Cal88 said:

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The smug little kremlin bots are out in force. Remember: their sources are pure golden truth, and anything that refutes, disproves, or otherwise contradicts them, is propaganda.

And be sure to throw in a few insults for good measure. Sock puppets gonna sock puppet.

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The sources lately, in case you haven't noticed, have been Time, CNN, the Economist etc.

Surprised to find this story this morning on my Microsoft feed:

Success for Putin: '20 Ukrainian Artillery Units Neutralized' (msn.com)

The Ukrainian losses in artillery duels have been made worse by their diminishing ammunition supply and by the aging of their gun barrels, which reduces their accuracy.

Those types of stories never appeared before, it's as if the MSM is dialing down the expectations they have spent nearly 2 years building up.

The real picture is very tragic, that of a middle-aged army being thrown into the fray, here we have Ukrainian troops being entertained (new recruits judging by the hair length) looking pretty grim - and very old. The recent Time Magazine article stated that the average age of Ukrainian soldiers was 43, but in this sample it looks closer to 50:

If you’re American and want to see something incredibly depressing that is not in Gaza, but which your tax dollars also made possible, take a look at the Ukrainian army pic.twitter.com/5pqOh7Eahb

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) November 20, 2023

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Maybe these guys want to fight for their country. Perhaps they are reservists. Why is it a bad thing that they still want to fight Russia? This why Russia can't win unless they kill every last Ukrainian. Ukrainians - even women and old men - are willing to fight for their country.

dimitrig said:

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Cal88 said:

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Quote:

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The smug little kremlin bots are out in force. Remember: their sources are pure golden truth, and anything that refutes, disproves, or otherwise contradicts them, is propaganda.

And be sure to throw in a few insults for good measure. Sock puppets gonna sock puppet.

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The sources lately, in case you haven't noticed, have been Time, CNN, the Economist etc.

Surprised to find this story this morning on my Microsoft feed:

Success for Putin: '20 Ukrainian Artillery Units Neutralized' (msn.com)

The Ukrainian losses in artillery duels have been made worse by their diminishing ammunition supply and by the aging of their gun barrels, which reduces their accuracy.

Those types of stories never appeared before, it's as if the MSM is dialing down the expectations they have spent nearly 2 years building up.

The real picture is very tragic, that of a middle-aged army being thrown into the fray, here we have Ukrainian troops being entertained (new recruits judging by the hair length) looking pretty grim - and very old. The recent Time Magazine article stated that the average age of Ukrainian soldiers was 43, but in this sample it looks closer to 50:

If you’re American and want to see something incredibly depressing that is not in Gaza, but which your tax dollars also made possible, take a look at the Ukrainian army https://t.co/5pqOh7Eahb

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) November 20, 2023

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Maybe these guys want to fight for their country. Perhaps they are reservists. Why is it a bad thing that they still want to fight Russia? This why Russia can't win unless they kill every last Ukrainian. Ukrainians - even women and old men - are willing to fight for their country.

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They don't look particularly motivated. Most of those who were highly motivated to fight a war have already volunteered and become statistics. Half a million dead Ukrainian soldiers, hundreds of thousands injured or maimed in a lopsided trench war where millions of shells have been fired.

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Russia can't win unless they kill every last Ukrainian.

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We're getting pretty close to that, hence the army of old dads. The war is going to be over sometime next year, Ukraine is running out of personnel and weapons alike, while the Russian military is growing larger and better armed. That's why the MSM is now trying to manage the public expectations downwards.

Ukrainians were sold by NATO the notion that Russia was a backwards, weak nation that could be defeated with modern NATO wonderweapons and tactics, which have been grossly oversold, when their best interests lied in avoiding the carnage and getting along with both Russia and their own large Russian ethnic minority.

Zelensky is now being pressed to come out with a negotiated settlement to stop the war. Chances are he will step down next year and give way to a leader who will get that settlement, possibly a military figure, or someone aligned with Zelensky's former main adviser Arestovich, who has recently come out in opposition to Zelensky:

‼️👀BOMBSHELL: Arestovich wants to topple Zelenskyy and stop the war: pic.twitter.com/sMdChNf8ca

— Eli Zifferblatt (@elizifferblatt) November 17, 2023

No doubt Russia will win this war of attrition…..but a war of attrition it most certainly is.

In leaked phone calls, Russian soldiers appear angry at losses in Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/5/in-leaked-phone-calls-russian-soldiers-appear-angry-at-losses-in-ukraine

bearister said:

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No doubt Russia will win this war of attrition…..but a war of attrition it most certainly is.

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They are getting a lot less than they thought they would and have had to expend a ton of resources to hold it. It's not a win for Russia.

bearister said:

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No doubt Russia will win this war of attrition…..but a war of attrition it most certainly is.

In leaked phone calls, Russian soldiers appear angry at losses in Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

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That's not how it was portrayed. As early as last Summer, you had most of the media and US military establishment claiming that Ukraine would roll over Russia and move on Crimea, including Petraeus, Hodges etc.

Half a million Ukrainian lives later, it turned out they were completely wrong. Not only did the military campaign fail, but Russia is coming out stronger economically, militarily and even diplomatically, outside of NATO countries. This war was a complete waste on all levels.

This is truly stunning: pic.twitter.com/UK2FDlLgp1

Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations for 10 years until June this year, saying:

"Even if we give everything we need to give to Ukraine it still won't lead to success... Therefore the U.S. needs to have some…

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 21, 2023

This is truly stunning: https://twitter.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1726622797118804153/video/1…

Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations for 10 years until June this year, saying:

"Even if we give everything we need to give to Ukraine it still won't lead to success... Therefore the U.S. needs to have some very direct conversations with Ukraine and talk about reducing their emphasis on liberating land, increasingly put their emphasis on holding onto what they've got... The idea that 1 or 2 or 3 more years of this is going to result in success, I simply don't see it... Anytime in life there's a big gap between what you're trying to do and your ability to do it, you either need to increase your means or lower your goals: here the only realistic option is to lower our goals."

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In other words, the war is not only lost, it's unwinnable.

First and foremost, what an immense waste of human life. Not only was this one of the most easily preventable wars of all times, but the West actively worked to prevent any peace deals early on in the war like the one tentatively reached in Istanbul just 1 month or so into the war, convincing Ukraine they'd be better off fighting. 100s of thousands of deaths later and here we are.... Will there be any reckoning? Sadly, I'm pretty sure there won't, just a depressing disaster all around.

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Couldn't have said it better than this blogger.

Asking in advance: Are the arguments justifying Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and criticizing the Ukraine for wasting human life resisting the invasion equally applicable if Russia moves by force into Eastern Europe?

bearister said:

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Asking in advance: Are the arguments justifying Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and criticizing the Ukraine for wasting human life resisting the invasion equally applicable if Russia moves by force into Eastern Europe?

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Aka the domino theory? I don't think it applies here any more than it did in Vietnam, Ukraine was the Russians' red line in eastern Europe, a fact that was very well known by US intel and foreign policy officials:




As Mearsheimer predicted in 2015 -a geopolitics lecture that has been viewed 30 million times on Youtube- NATO deliberately crossing that red line would precipitate a Russian invasion. Paraphrasing him, "Ukraine is being led down the primrose path and that the end result is Ukraine is going to be wrecked".

Here is that segment, in the last 2 minutes of his lecture, bookmarked below, very much worth revisiting:

Cal88 said:

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bearister said:

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So in other words, should Russia expand into Eastern Europe, the Ukrainian arguments won't apply.

I have no opinion regarding whether Putin would ever make that move.

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Right, with a couple of exceptions, like Lithuania blocking the land corridor to the Kaliningrad enclave, a major red line for Russia, or possibly Moldova attacking Transnistria, an enclave wedged between Moldova and Ukraine with a large Russian minority.

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Kaliningrad, which was called Konigsberg for the first 690 years of its existence, is the former capital of Prussia. Prussia was the main driver behind the unification of Germany.

Of course, bad things happen when you empower a hateful nutjob like Hitler. The Russians came in 1945 and drove out the German population. In 1945, 5,000 Russians lived in Konigsberg. Today, the city is 88% Russian and it is a redline of sorts.

What is called Kaliningrad today (named after a main ally of the murderous thug, Joseph Stalin), has no border with the rest of Russia. It's importance is strategic as a port on the Baltic. The cultural remnants of Konigsberg and Prussia were destroyed by Russia.

I'm sure the Ukrainians have nothing to worry about.

I know you think it's fun to not care about other people on the board, but it is incredibly offensive to use Hitler as an avatar. Is this seriously who you have become and the total disregard for others? What's your end game? See just how big of a jerk you can be for how many years? Really, what is the point of your act. We are a small community of Cal fans who step into this small forum to discuss things other than sports and your decision is to be as rude and offensive and contrarian as possible and invent multiple personalities to further antagonize and support your own "opinions" and avoid any thoughtful or honest discussion? Why? What adult does this?

Have you ever considered just stopping this act? You don't need to keep doing it. No one likes it (okay maybe like 2 people like it?). Can you get whatever strokes or affirmation you are looking for in a more positive and community building way?

bearister said:

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Asking in advance: Are the arguments justifying Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and criticizing the Ukraine for wasting human life resisting the invasion equally applicable if Russia moves by force into Eastern Europe?

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He would be stupid not to. Anything Putin does is a reasonable response to any provocation. To Putin shills, human rights only apply to those who oppose his enemies or enemies of friends or whatever. So for example, Israel cannot respond to any provocation (regardless of any red lines) but even a perceived cheek slap is justification for Russia to take a nuclear response, should Putin so choose.

Of course Putin, in his beneficent largesse, has decided not to nuke everyone even though he would be well within his rights to do so. Rather than nuking people, he's decided to make Russia stronger through attritional warfare.

How do I gauge this increase in strength? We can all agree that nothing makes a country weaker than people who have petty squabbles to be concerned with. Not a problem in mother Russia, as soldier's families are quite loudly complaining about the fact that they have been on the front lines for ages without any leave. The joke is on their families though as they aren't really at the front line since many of them have been dead for months, but Russia is getting stronger by not paying death benefits.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 20 November 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/0d2kiwdC97

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/mMReqku2o3

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) November 20, 2023

7th November, 2023, Teatralnya Square in … Moscow was the scene of a protest that will have been deeply embarrassing for Vladimir Putin. Wives of Russian soldiers deployed in Ukraine protested against the seemingly indefinite deployment of their spouses https://t.co/lqbYL3ujYT

— D.BaderFella (@D_Bader_Fella) November 21, 2023

The true strength comes from the fact that everyone continues to enjoy their part in the war effort and Russians around the world are rejoicing in their amazing success.

I contributed to this story about Russian recruiting efforts to keep numbers coming to stave off formal mobilization, and how authorities manage the families of the mobilized to prevent them from coalescing as regional or national blocs. https://t.co/kZFFntIW0u

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) November 21, 2023

And because Putin recognizes this strength, he's precipitating a crisis at the Finnish border. He's been sending illegal migrants there in order to force Finland to close the border. Why would he do that, you might ask? In order to prevent Russians from continuing their exodus from his corrupt kleptocratic petro-state with no opportunities for educated young people compared to what they can find abroad.

BREAKING:

Finnish border guards are forced to use tear gas as a large group of illegal migrants from Syria and Iraq are trying to force its way into Finland from Russia at the Niirila border crossing

Russia uses weaponized migration as a tool of hybrid warfare against 🇫🇮 & 🇪🇪 pic.twitter.com/mXfMOqzUpK

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 17, 2023

Here's the Economist on point:

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Re: Russia, an analysis and policy network, has examined various estimates and available data from countries that have accepted large numbers of Russian migrs. They found that between 817,000 and 922,000 people have left Russia since February 2022. The largest recipient countries were Kazakhstan and Serbia, each with 150,000 emigrants. But Russians have moved all over the world, including between 30,000 and 40,000 who went to America, according to the estimates.

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You might wonder how this makes Russia stronger - the answer is obvious. Just like a high school football team in a movie becomes stronger by getting rid of star players with attitudinal issues, Russia is stronger than ever because people "want to be there" except of course for the people who can't leave because they are too poor.

sycasey said:

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Zippergate said:

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Confirmed by multiple sources. But for the sake of argument, would your opinion of the last 18 months change if you found out that the US/UK nixed a peace deal?

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That didn't happen, so I won't have to change my opinion.

But yes, theoretically if that was true (it's not) then I would change my opinion.

The problem with any Russian assurances is that they are written on toilet paper. There's no reason to believe Putin was ever serious about making "peace," while he's sending his tanks to Kiev.

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After the USSR imploded, we promised Gorby we wouldn't move one foot eastward.

movielover said:

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sycasey said:

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Zippergate said:

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Confirmed by multiple sources. But for the sake of argument, would your opinion of the last 18 months change if you found out that the US/UK nixed a peace deal?

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That didn't happen, so I won't have to change my opinion.

But yes, theoretically if that was true (it's not) then I would change my opinion.

The problem with any Russian assurances is that they are written on toilet paper. There's no reason to believe Putin was ever serious about making "peace," while he's sending his tanks to Kiev.

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After the USSR imploded, we promised Gorby we wouldn't move one foot eastward.

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This is a lie

That's not how Gorbachev remembers it
https://www.rbth.com/international/2014/10/16/mikhail_gorbachev_i_am_against_all_walls_40673.html

Gorbachev and Baker were talking specifically about Germany. Agreements on Germany were made and kept.

Furthermore, America would not be bound by a flippant comment from a discussion anyway. If there were other agreements they would have been put in writing. The Russians aren't as naive as you make them out to be.

Gorbachev certainly was very naive, not just with regards to NATO promises not kept, but also wrt the economic transition process post-USSR, which was disastrous for Russia, neoliberal shock doctrine leading to a kleptocratic oligarchy, and the most devastating decade they have had since WW2, the 1990s, where the country was plunged into abject poverty and near-complete social breakdown,

Those are the reasons Gorbachev is hated in Russia.

Also, from your own source linked above, Gorbachev on NATO expansion eastwards:

" The decision for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisively made in 1993. I called this a big mistake from the very beginning. It was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990. "

Cal88 said:

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Gorbachev certainly was very naive, not just with regards to NATO promises not kept, but also wrt the economic transition process post-USSR, which was disastrous for Russia, neoliberal shock doctrine leading to a kleptocratic oligarchy, and the most devastating decade they have had since WW2, the 1990s, where the country was plunged into abject poverty and near-complete social breakdown,

Those are the reasons Gorbachev is hated in Russia.

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We haven't come across any NATO promises not kept and we have completely swept under the rug any of Russia's responsibility for ushering in a system that brought Putin, who is dead, immense wealth and power. Nobody benefited more from those policies than Putin*.

* who is dead

Unit2Sucks said:

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bearister said:

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Asking in advance: Are the arguments justifying Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and criticizing the Ukraine for wasting human life resisting the invasion equally applicable if Russia moves by force into Eastern Europe?

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He would be stupid not to. Anything Putin does is a reasonable response to any provocation. To Putin shills, human rights only apply to those who oppose his enemies or enemies of friends or whatever. So for example, Israel cannot respond to any provocation (regardless of any red lines) but even a perceived cheek slap is justification for Russia to take a nuclear response, should Putin so choose.


...

Here's the Economist on point:

Quote:

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Re: Russia, an analysis and policy network, has examined various estimates and available data from countries that have accepted large numbers of Russian migrs. They found that between 817,000 and 922,000 people have left Russia since February 2022. The largest recipient countries were Kazakhstan and Serbia, each with 150,000 emigrants. But Russians have moved all over the world, including between 30,000 and 40,000 who went to America, according to the estimates.

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You might wonder how this makes Russia stronger - the answer is obvious. Just like a high school football team in a movie becomes stronger by getting rid of star players with attitudinal issues, Russia is stronger than ever because people "want to be there" except of course for the people who can't leave because they are too poor.

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Actually, it's the rich Russian expats have come back home, because in countries like France or the UK, their assets have been seized. Not just well-connected oligarchs, but also random upper middle class Russian expats. as a result, a lot of them have returned home, along with their capital. Russian citizens are no longer allowed to open bank accounts in much of Europe. That is the main reason Russia got richer last year:

NEW - Russia got richer last year, while the West shed trillions of dollars of wealth, according to UBS. pic.twitter.com/3E790JmosT

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 16, 2023

A lot of the younger professionals who have left feared a potential draft, but Russia has been able to mobilize nearly 400,000 men without resorting to a draft, so some of these men who left for places like Georgia, Turkey, UAE are returning:

https://www.ft.com/content/5e6bcce9-7bda-4b29-b1b7-f7df6e879fd9

Russian industry is booming, sectors like manufacturing are experiencing fast growth no just as a result of war production but also due to civilian import substitution projects. The main problems Russia is facing economically are a labor shortage and inflation due to the economy overheating.
https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-s-industrial-production-moves-to-a-war-footing-as-growth-is-up-6-5-in-june.html/

The moron with dozens of sock puppet accounts brings up intellectual integrity.

Heh.

AunBear89 said:

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The moron with dozens of sock puppet accounts brings up intellectual integrity.

Heh.

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Flagged for hateful insults and lack of substance.

oski003 said:

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AunBear89 said:

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The moron with dozens of sock puppet accounts brings up intellectual integrity.

Heh.

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Flagged for hateful insults and lack of substance.

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Snowflake needs a safe space

dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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AunBear89 said:

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The moron with dozens of sock puppet accounts brings up intellectual integrity.

Heh.

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Flagged for hateful insults and lack of substance.

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Snowflake needs a safe space

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Way to keep it classy, Dajo9. This community deserves better discourse than Aunbear's insults.

oski003 said:

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AunBear89 said:

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The moron with dozens of sock puppet accounts brings up intellectual integrity.

Heh.

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Flagged for hateful insults and lack of substance.

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Have you flagged any of Yogi Sock Puppet's substance-free, insult filled posts? Every single one would qualify. And if so, why didn't you choose to virtue signal those events, hall monitor?

Your constant ass kissing of the BI conservatives is pathetic. I hope you find the friends you are so desperate to brown nose.

movielover said:

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At what age did you become interested in the back door?

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What the hell are you babbling on about? I suspect it was shortly after I met your mom.

sycasey said:

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bearister said:

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No doubt Russia will win this war of attrition…..but a war of attrition it most certainly is.

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They are getting a lot less than they thought they would and have had to expend a ton of resources to hold it. It's not a win for Russia.

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Putin is still in power, Russian troops held nearly all of their territory after the vaunted Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Ukrainian military is done & ready to negotiate an end to the fighting, and a majority of U.S. taxpayers are against further funding of this proxy war. Zelensky will be replaced -- soon. And not by any election, since he cancelled Ukraine's upcoming elections.

And most of all, the U.S.-funded Ukrainian military is no longer a threat to Russia. As foreign policy expert John Mearsheimer predicted way back in 2015, Ukraine is wrecked.

I'd say that's a Win for Russia. And the BRICS.

And a big L for NATO, the U.S., the USD, U.S. Taxpayers, and the EU.

cbbass1 said:

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And most of all, the U.S.-funded Ukrainian military is no longer a threat to Russia. As foreign policy expert John Mearsheimer predicted way back in 2015, Ukraine is wrecked.

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Yeah, it really is a shame that Putin decided to wreck them.

He used up massive resources to do so, did not actually topple their government, and drove more countries into NATO as a result, but hey, what a win!

AunBear89 said:

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oski003 said:

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AunBear89 said:

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The moron with dozens of sock puppet accounts brings up intellectual integrity.

Heh.

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Flagged for hateful insults and lack of substance.

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Have you flagged any of Yogi Sock Puppet's substance-free, insult filled posts? Every single one would qualify. And if so, why didn't you choose to virtue signal those events, hall monitor?

Your constant ass kissing of the BI conservatives is pathetic. I hope you find the friends you are so desperate to brown nose.

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Let me know which of his posts are like most of yours:
1) Substance free;
2) Aggressive;
3) Insulting;
4) Unprompted; and
5) Not in response to someone else's insults.

If you can't see any of that for yourself, you are either lazy, a liar, or an idiot.

I know which option my money is on.

bearister said:

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Asking in advance: Are the arguments justifying Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and criticizing the Ukraine for wasting human life resisting the invasion equally applicable if Russia moves by force into Eastern Europe?

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Those are two completely different situations.

Ukraine is NOT a NATO member -- that is the difference. That's why Biden & the U.S. limited their response to Russia's invasion, especially in the beginning.

IF Putin/Russia invaded a NATO member, there would be no limits on the U.S. military response. An attack on any NATO member is an attack on all, and the result would be a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia.

That's why Putin had, and has, zero intention of invading any NATO member nation. What motivation would he have to invade his best & closest customers?

He made clear, over many years, that bringing Ukraine into NATO, and having an armed / nuclear NATO Ukraine on its border was unacceptable and intolerable. At the 2008 Bucharest Summit, at the U.S.'s urging, NATO offered invitations for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. Of course, Putin was outraged at this level of provocation and aggression, especially after the U.S./NATO promise of "not one inch Eastward" that was the pretext for the unification of Germany, and for the former Warsaw Pact / former Soviet republics, like Ukraine, to give up their nuclear weapons.

Also, IF Putin had intended a military takeover beyond Ukraine, he would've invested A LOT more in his conventional military, and much less on the infrastructure required to make $Billions selling oil & natural gas to Germany & the rest of Europe.

It isn't Putin/Russia's military that the U.S. fears most. Our greatest fear was a prosperous EU, fueled by Russian oil & gas, surpassing what's left of the U.S. economy.

AunBear89 said:

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If you can't see any of that for yourself, you are either lazy, a liar, or an idiot.

I know which option my money is on.

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It's pretty simple, if you don't have any relevant content to contribute to a discussion, don't post.

If you disagree with someone on political grounds, try to express that in a civil manner.