movielover said:

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Deep analysis.

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I mean, your guys' analysis requires me to ignore what Putin has actually said on the matter (that Ukraine is part of Greater Russia) so I don't think I need to go much deeper in my rebuttal.

That said, I do not oppose peace talks. If we can get something let's get something. I'm just extremely skeptical that Putin will to agree to anything. He'll string Trump along, for sure, but agree to an actual peace? I'll believe it when I see it.

concordtom said:

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Apologies if this has already been posted but a top Ukrainian politician has been gunned down in broad daylight by a masked "delivery driver".

https://www.the-sun.com/news/15079922/ukrainian-politician-murdered-daylight/

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This was posted only three posts above yours.

But you realize the West is the entity w the shady track record of breaking peace deals, walking away from peace and arms deals, putting CIA secret bases near Russia, and arming Ukraine for this eventual confrontation.

Putin repeatedly asked for negotiations, and we ignored him. The Istanbul Peace Accord would have retained an intact independent Ukraine, with NATO sidelined. We nixed it. Russia's military has gotten much stronger, including the Mach 10, unblockable Oreshnik hypersonic missile which can reach all of Europe (aka escalatory dominance).

Now NATO, EU, and Ukraine are getting crushed, and you're crying crocodile tears that Putin is looking out for Russia's security and best interests.

movielover said:

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But you realize the West is the entity w the shady track record of breaking peace deals, walking away from peace and arms deals, putting CIA secret bases near Russia, and arming Ukraine for this eventual confrontation.

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Russia under Putin does all of that and more. I don't understand this phenomenon of people in the West wanting to only focus on our own sins and ignore everything coming from Putin. The propaganda is strong, I guess.

Examples?

"Not that you deserve it at all because the appropriate death for you would be while you are in the middle of posting your latest tragically unfunny meme…."

Wow. That is the angriest thing a BI poster has said to me since Bancroftbear93 got so butt hurt by me, you know, just like you, during the debates in the Ahmaud Arbery thread that he death threated me and got a lifetime ban (I never even flagged his post).

Your sum and substance is contained in two gifs (and I know you love my gifs):




*Try being less of a c@unt and maybe you can end the rinse and repeat cycle of starting a new handle and getting banned.
*I would have used the gif of the sobbing female Bernie supporter that you love so much, and it would have been more appropriate, but she must have a rich daddy that scrubbed it off the internet. I could only find her still photo:



….and last but not least, the one you appropriated from me:

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Former advisor to Zelensky, Arestovich: “All (Ukrainian) military personnel serving in ATO, without exception, are criminals”

-> Shelling Donetsk and Luhansk is done since 2014

PS: This clip is before the start of the war with Russia, pre 2022.

pic.twitter.com/YnIz4K8ApS

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) August 31, 2025

Every week Russia conquers more territory. The EU leaders seem insane. Is it kickbacks, threats from Nazi's, or are they that compromised?

🇩🇪🇷🇺🇺🇦 German chancellor wants to sacrifice all of Ukraine to save himself.

Merz is preparing for a long war, but how? He digs a trench and buys canned ravioli as supplies? pic.twitter.com/edby3ib67q

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) August 31, 2025

movielover said:

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Examples?

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Here, I'll get you started.

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/24/nx-s1-5332151/russias-history-of-broken-agreements-with-ukraine

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/

https://theconversation.com/russias-actions-in-post-soviet-wars-provide-clues-to-its-brutal-ukraine-invasion-177952

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_European_politics

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/20/nx-s1-5403625/russia-builds-up-military-presence-along-borders-with-nato-member-countries

movielover said:

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NBC: Rheinmetall chief says Europe must catch up with Russia's ammunition output as it opens mega plant

"CEO Armin Papperger on Wednesday told CNBC that Russia had the capacity to put out 4 to 5 million artillery ammunition rounds a year. Comparatively, he said Europe has a yearly output of around 2 million, more than half of which is produced by Rheinmetall....

"...Europe's "biggest need is artillery ammunition and missiles," Papperger said, stressing the new plant in Unterluess will focus on both items. The plant's output is expected to reach 350,000 artillery shells a year by 2027....

"...The NATO chief added that Russia and China were "producing weapons and heavy military equipment at an incredible rate" and with "little transparency." "

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/rheinmetall-chief-says-europe-must-catch-up-with-russian-ammo-output.html

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There are many in the U.S. government / military / State Dept who are demanding much greater levels of weapons production, and military expenditures in general. The generally-accepted "requirement" has been about 5% of GDP.

Unfortunately, the EU is on the verge of economic and political collapse. Spending 5% GDP on military will require the dismantling of Europe's world-best social safety nets. Current political leaders in Europe will not survive the next election.

Besides, Europe's voters know that Russia is NOT a military threat to Europe. All of the current threat amplification & fear-mongering about Russia is 100% generated within the U.S. Deep State & military-industrial-Congressional-media complex.

Simply put: IF Russia intended to do a military conquest of Europe, 1) they would've invested FAR more in their own military from 2014 until 2022; 2) they would NOT have invested $Billions to build the Nordstream Pipelines.

Once the Ukraine War is done, all the evidence shows that the citizens of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe just want to get back to "normalcy". Rebuild, end the economic sanctions, and move on.

Good points.

Europe's social programs are too rich, six weeks paid vacations for everyone, 35-hour work weeks in France, long termination notices for employees (a friend's bakery in Germany in 2000 had to pay a worker who stole from them $25,000 to separate from the family business).

New trade agreements with the USA, effectively ending the Marshall Plan, may also bite.

Europe has their own Swamp.

New York Post: Six candidates from Germany's rightwing AfD party die 13 days apart in lead up to local elections: reports

Statistically impossible. No Socialists die? Educated, non smoking professionals with full health care dropping like flies?

Russia is a military threat to eastern Europe, as the current Ukraine situation proves. Western Europe, probably not but there can still be big problems if Russia does start dominating the old Eastern Bloc again.

That said, I'm not too interested in hearing from the old "Putin won't invade Ukraine" crowd on this, of which cbbass1 was a leading member.

sycasey said:

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Russia is a military threat to eastern Europe, as the current Ukraine situation proves. Western Europe, probably not but there can still be big problems if Russia does start dominating the old Eastern Bloc again.

That said, I'm not too interested in hearing from the old "Putin won't invade Ukraine" crowd on this, of which cbbass1 was a leading member.

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I'm not too interested in hearing from the old "Russia is actually forced out of Ukraine" crowd in this thread either.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2090161

https://media.giphy.com/media/5tojx1LzP3mMA1J1CE/giphy.gif

ACC Bear said:

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sycasey said:

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Russia is a military threat to eastern Europe, as the current Ukraine situation proves. Western Europe, probably not but there can still be big problems if Russia does start dominating the old Eastern Bloc again.

That said, I'm not too interested in hearing from the old "Putin won't invade Ukraine" crowd on this, of which cbbass1 was a leading member.

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I'm not too interested in hearing from the old "Russia is actually forced out of Ukraine" crowd in this thread either.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2090161

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That post says that it might be "on the table," not that it's a prediction. This is pretty weak, dude.

It was never really "on the table", Ukraine/NATO were never going to defeat Russia on its borders.

There is no military solution for Ukraine.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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It was never really "on the table", Ukraine/NATO were never going to defeat Russia on its borders.

There is no military solution for Ukraine.

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At this point I agree, and if you go all the way back to how I first thought this war would turn out I said it would likely become a grinding quagmire, which it has.

That said, yes, at a certain point three years ago I entertained the idea that Russia might be beaten back, because they were prosecuting the war so poorly. I don't think I would have ever said it was the most likely result but I did think it was possible at one point. Not anymore. They got it together enough to at least hold some territory.

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Do you work for NATO or the Brits?

The Ukrainian military is completely wrecked, as is the country. Best estimates we have are 1.8 million KIA Ukrainians, 200K - 400K KIA Russians. Russia holds a chunk of eastern Ukraine and their geographic conquests are rapidly increasing.

NATO, EU, USA and worldwide western ammunition stockpiles dangerously low. It will take the West years to restock ammunition and missile stockpiles, and how much of our treasury will we send to rebuild Ukraine, Gaza, and Israel? All while Europe is on the edge of civil war.

Yes, grinding quagmire type wars can take quite a toll on manpower and resources on both sides of the war. That's why I thought it was completely foolish for Putin to invade. But the fact is that the battle lines have moved very little in the last year. That's why I call it a quagmire.

sycasey said:

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movielover said:

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Examples?

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Here, I'll get you started.

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/24/nx-s1-5332151/russias-history-of-broken-agreements-with-ukraine

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/

https://theconversation.com/russias-actions-in-post-soviet-wars-provide-clues-to-its-brutal-ukraine-invasion-177952

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_European_politics

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/20/nx-s1-5403625/russia-builds-up-military-presence-along-borders-with-nato-member-countries

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Perused the first link, NPR interview, and this was the content:

Quote:

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SUMMERS (NPR journo): And of course, we know that that agreement - the Budapest Memorandum - did not end up protecting Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea - part of Ukraine - which brings us to another Russia-Ukraine deal, the Minsk agreements. Tell us what those laid out.

PLOKHII (Harvard academic/NATO hack): The annexation of the Crimea really became an opening stage for the war between Russia and Ukraine because the next move that Russia did, they were trying also to annex the eastern part of Ukraine called Donbas. A few weeks after the fighting, the first Minsk agreements were reached, which was a - sort of the armistice at that time. And what happened was after Minsk 1, Russia decided that it was not really satisfied with the amount of territory that it had and the conditions that it imposed on Ukraine. So they resumed the military action in early 2015 and then led to Minsk 2, which was more in alliance with their original plans. So we have this story of armistice agreements that was signed and violated again and again by the Russian Federation. People are concerned that that will - can happen again.

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Russia did not invade Crimea, the Ukrainian army garrisons stationed in Crimea that were almost entirely made up of locals rebelled after the Maidan coup and the installation of a regime that was hostile to ethnic Russians, which make up the great majority of Crimeans. That's how Crimea flipped to Russia with hardly any bloodshed, an outcome that is overwhelmingly supported by the locals, according to the referendum and several independent western polls.

Note as well than since Crimea flipped back to Russia (it was ceded to the Soviet State of Ukraine by Khrushchev in the 50s), Kiev cut off Crimea's main freshwater source by dumping the water from the the Dniepr River canal directly into the Black Sea, out of pure spite for Crimeans. This spiteful move, driven by ethnic hatred from Kiev, devastated Crimea's agriculture and affected the tourist trade as well, two of the peninsula's main industries.

If that Harvard academic can't get that basic fact right, how good can his analyses be, and how impartial can he really be?

Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

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Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

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Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

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Your narrative is just Russian propaganda full stop, so I have nothing more to say about it.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

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Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

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Your narrative is just Russian propaganda full stop, so I have nothing more to say about it.

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But it's historically accurate. I met a Crimean gal after that went down and I was surprised that she was perfectly fine w joining Russia. BTW, she was gorgeous... and not loaded w thick makeup. A natural beauty.

movielover said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

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Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

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Your narrative is just Russian propaganda full stop, so I have nothing more to say about it.

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But it's historically accurate. I met a Crimean gal after that went down and I was surprised that she was perfectly fine w joining Russia. BTW, she was gorgeous... and not loaded w thick makeup. A natural beauty.

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The "Ukrainian army garrisons stationed in Crimea that were almost entirely made up of locals" Cal88 describes were Russian troops. Putin even admitted as much later.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War)

https://www.rferl.org/a/from-not-us-to-why-hide-it-how-russia-denied-its-crimea-invasion-then-admitted-it/29791806.html

sycasey said:

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movielover said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

---

Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

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Your narrative is just Russian propaganda full stop, so I have nothing more to say about it.

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But it's historically accurate. I met a Crimean gal after that went down and I was surprised that she was perfectly fine w joining Russia. BTW, she was gorgeous... and not loaded w thick makeup. A natural beauty.

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The "Ukrainian army garrisons stationed in Crimea that were almost entirely made up of locals" Cal88 describes were Russian troops. Putin even admitted as much later.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War)

https://www.rferl.org/a/from-not-us-to-why-hide-it-how-russia-denied-its-crimea-invasion-then-admitted-it/29791806.html

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Fun facts:

Radio Free Europe was founded by the CIA to push U.S. propaganda into Eastern Europe.
The U.S intelligence agencies are constantly editing Wikipedia.

Your sources suck as much as you do and that's a high bar of suckitude.

ACC Bear said:

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sycasey said:

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movielover said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

---

Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

---

Your narrative is just Russian propaganda full stop, so I have nothing more to say about it.

---

But it's historically accurate. I met a Crimean gal after that went down and I was surprised that she was perfectly fine w joining Russia. BTW, she was gorgeous... and not loaded w thick makeup. A natural beauty.

---

The "Ukrainian army garrisons stationed in Crimea that were almost entirely made up of locals" Cal88 describes were Russian troops. Putin even admitted as much later.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War)

https://www.rferl.org/a/from-not-us-to-why-hide-it-how-russia-denied-its-crimea-invasion-then-admitted-it/29791806.html

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Fun facts:

Radio Free Europe was founded by the CIA to push U.S. propaganda into Eastern Europe.
The U.S intelligence agencies are constantly editing Wikipedia.

Your sources suck as much as you do and that's a high bar of suckitude.

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This is the reply of someone who didn't read any of the evidence in that article, including links to the proof coming straight from the horse's mouth (Putin, the soldiers themselves) that there were Russian soldiers in Crimea. But sure, deflect with complaints about Radio Free Europe if you like.

movielover said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Russia did not invade Crimea

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Hahaha.

---

Maybe it's just me, but that doesn't sound like a very convincing argument.

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Your narrative is just Russian propaganda full stop, so I have nothing more to say about it.

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But it's historically accurate. I met a Crimean gal after that went down and I was surprised that she was perfectly fine w joining Russia. BTW, she was gorgeous... and not loaded w thick makeup. A natural beauty.

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I'm guessing that the gorgeous Crimean gal just told you what she thought you wanted to hear because, you know... heh heh. This probably happens all the time to you, supermodels and such, so I'm surprised you're not more attuned to it.

movielover said:

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Just two friendly souls chatting at a trade show.

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"Chatting at a trade show"? Is that what they call it nowadays? Heh heh...

You da man! Forming your world view, one "natural beauty" at a time!