The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Cal88
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:





Assistant secretary of state under George W. Bush, who conducted the previous fake U.S. regime change war.



Quote:

I can't help it if the neocons happen to be right about Russia in this case while you morons lap up everything Putin wants you to believe. Just how it goes sometimes.



At the point where you start to write sentences like "neocons happen to be right" is a good time to start questioning when your beliefs are wrong. At least for normal people who have values like opposing the war against Iraq.

Oh trust me, I do question it, just like I questioned Iraq back in the day. I just don't think they're wrong in this case. I can accept when people I don't like are right about a particular subject.

You seem to have problems doing this.


Do you accept that Mearsheimer was right 11 years ago.



He is right about some things, in a broad sense. Some of his criticism of American and/or Western policy towards Ukraine is fair.

But he also said that Putin "did not have any intention of invading Ukraine" about a week before they did so. See comments here starting at around 1:50:





You're discrediting your own thesis here, Mearsheimer nailed it!

He clearly stated at the 1:50 mark that Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine, but "he nevertheless understood that there might be circumstances under which that might be necessary where Russians would intervene if Ukraine attacked the Russian-supported forces in the Donbas, he would come to their assistance, and that would probably involve a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine".

Except that it wasn't just a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine. That was the fallback position. The original invasion was attempting to topple the government in Kiev. That failed, and was not a thing Mearsheimer thought Putin would do. He was wrong about that.


Tedious nitpicking, even by your own standards.

No, because it speaks to Putin's motivations. He doesn't just want some territory in the east. He wants all of Ukraine. Either for Russia to absorb it or (more likely) for it to be a compliant satellite a la Belarus. This is a regime change war. Unless you can understand that these are Putin's aims there will be no understanding the war.





Hey this guy is pretty sharp about this whole topic in general! And he was much more correct about what would happen than Mearsheimer was . . . before the war started, he said that Russia would invade and also that it wouldn't go well for them. How long are they into this "special military operation" again?


It is hard for Russia to simply hire Nazis for a regime change because the CIA already did that.

I don't believe this is true, but I've given up on trying to convince you people of that.


You're really showing your lack of knowledge, or perhaps more accurately, your reliance on incredibly biased sources, WRT this very basic item. OUN/UPA nazis have been propped up by NATO, metastasizing into the cult of Bandera today, all for the purpose of grooming Ukraine to undermine Russia.

Watching Furd-Lville and getting ready for the ND game tonight, but if you'd like I can produce the receipts to the paragraph above later on.
movielover
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In response to an allegation that Putin wanted all of Ukraine, Putin replied with a smirk that they already had more than enough land.

Russia gains valuable sections and 2-3 million people? (Estimates today tough, some fled, some fled to Russia, etc.)
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:





Assistant secretary of state under George W. Bush, who conducted the previous fake U.S. regime change war.



Quote:

I can't help it if the neocons happen to be right about Russia in this case while you morons lap up everything Putin wants you to believe. Just how it goes sometimes.



At the point where you start to write sentences like "neocons happen to be right" is a good time to start questioning when your beliefs are wrong. At least for normal people who have values like opposing the war against Iraq.

Oh trust me, I do question it, just like I questioned Iraq back in the day. I just don't think they're wrong in this case. I can accept when people I don't like are right about a particular subject.

You seem to have problems doing this.


Do you accept that Mearsheimer was right 11 years ago.



He is right about some things, in a broad sense. Some of his criticism of American and/or Western policy towards Ukraine is fair.

But he also said that Putin "did not have any intention of invading Ukraine" about a week before they did so. See comments here starting at around 1:50:





You're discrediting your own thesis here, Mearsheimer nailed it!

He clearly stated at the 1:50 mark that Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine, but "he nevertheless understood that there might be circumstances under which that might be necessary where Russians would intervene if Ukraine attacked the Russian-supported forces in the Donbas, he would come to their assistance, and that would probably involve a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine".

Except that it wasn't just a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine. That was the fallback position. The original invasion was attempting to topple the government in Kiev. That failed, and was not a thing Mearsheimer thought Putin would do. He was wrong about that.


Tedious nitpicking, even by your own standards.

No, because it speaks to Putin's motivations. He doesn't just want some territory in the east. He wants all of Ukraine. Either for Russia to absorb it or (more likely) for it to be a compliant satellite a la Belarus. This is a regime change war. Unless you can understand that these are Putin's aims there will be no understanding the war.





Hey this guy is pretty sharp about this whole topic in general! And he was much more correct about what would happen than Mearsheimer was . . . before the war started, he said that Russia would invade and also that it wouldn't go well for them. How long are they into this "special military operation" again?


It is hard for Russia to simply hire Nazis for a regime change because the CIA already did that.

I don't believe this is true, but I've given up on trying to convince you people of that.


I do believe this is true, and I haven't given up on trying to convince you of that.

Good luck!
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:





Assistant secretary of state under George W. Bush, who conducted the previous fake U.S. regime change war.



Quote:

I can't help it if the neocons happen to be right about Russia in this case while you morons lap up everything Putin wants you to believe. Just how it goes sometimes.



At the point where you start to write sentences like "neocons happen to be right" is a good time to start questioning when your beliefs are wrong. At least for normal people who have values like opposing the war against Iraq.

Oh trust me, I do question it, just like I questioned Iraq back in the day. I just don't think they're wrong in this case. I can accept when people I don't like are right about a particular subject.

You seem to have problems doing this.


Do you accept that Mearsheimer was right 11 years ago.



He is right about some things, in a broad sense. Some of his criticism of American and/or Western policy towards Ukraine is fair.

But he also said that Putin "did not have any intention of invading Ukraine" about a week before they did so. See comments here starting at around 1:50:





You're discrediting your own thesis here, Mearsheimer nailed it!

He clearly stated at the 1:50 mark that Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine, but "he nevertheless understood that there might be circumstances under which that might be necessary where Russians would intervene if Ukraine attacked the Russian-supported forces in the Donbas, he would come to their assistance, and that would probably involve a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine".

Except that it wasn't just a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine. That was the fallback position. The original invasion was attempting to topple the government in Kiev. That failed, and was not a thing Mearsheimer thought Putin would do. He was wrong about that.


Tedious nitpicking, even by your own standards.

No, because it speaks to Putin's motivations. He doesn't just want some territory in the east. He wants all of Ukraine. Either for Russia to absorb it or (more likely) for it to be a compliant satellite a la Belarus. This is a regime change war. Unless you can understand that these are Putin's aims there will be no understanding the war.





Hey this guy is pretty sharp about this whole topic in general! And he was much more correct about what would happen than Mearsheimer was . . . before the war started, he said that Russia would invade and also that it wouldn't go well for them. How long are they into this "special military operation" again?


It is hard for Russia to simply hire Nazis for a regime change because the CIA already did that.

I don't believe this is true, but I've given up on trying to convince you people of that.


You're really showing your lack of knowledge, or perhaps more accurately, your reliance on incredibly biased sources, WRT this very basic item. OUN/UPA nazis have been propped up by NATO, metastasizing into the cult of Bandera today, all for the purpose of grooming Ukraine to undermine Russia.

Watching Furd-Lville and getting ready for the ND game tonight, but if you'd like I can produce the receipts to the paragraph above later on.

You've shared all of this before.

I believe the CIA and/or the US government did things to try to influence the direction of Ukraine (Russia did the same), but the idea that they actively created the coup is . . . weakly proven at best.
movielover
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So Victoria Nuland was just washing dishes over there, dozens of bio weapons labs are nothing, as were 12 CIA bases on Russia's border?
sycasey
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movielover said:

So Victoria Nuland was just washing dishes over there, dozens of bio weapons labs are nothing, as were 12 CIA bases on Russia's border?

There weren't any bio-weapons labs, and the CIA intelligence operation on Russia's border started after Russia took Crimea and the Ukrainian government asked (begged, really) for our help. Thanks!
movielover
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Who knows in the propoganda wars.

Mother Jobes: "(He was referring to Senate testimony by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, who responded to a question from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) by saying that Ukraine does have "biological research facilities," which US officials are worried could fall into Russian hands.)"

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/ukraine-bioweapons-lab-conspiracy-putin-tucker-carlson-fox-news/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/ukraine-biolabs-fox-tucker-carlson-tulsi-gabbard-b2039117.html
sycasey
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movielover said:

Who knows in the propoganda wars.

Mother Jobes: "(He was referring to Senate testimony by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, who responded to a question from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) by saying that Ukraine does have "biological research facilities," which US officials are worried could fall into Russian hands.)"

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/ukraine-bioweapons-lab-conspiracy-putin-tucker-carlson-fox-news/

Research facilities are different from weapons facilities.
PAC-10-BEAR
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Cal88
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It will take several years for Venezuela to ramp up its oil production, by that time the Ukraine war will be over.

Also there are no guarantees that the country will be stable enough to secure its infrastructure.
MinotStateBeav
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Cal88 said:

It will take several years for Venezuela to ramp up its oil production, by that time the Ukraine war will be over.

Also there are no guarantees that the country will be stable enough to secure its infrastructure.

That really depends how much Russia leveraged itself to keep the war going.
movielover
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Isn't the real issue using Venezuela as a transshipment vehicle to sell Russian oil and evade sanctions?

Are the Socialists still substantial enough without Maduro to cause havoc? They've driven the country into the sewer and millions appear thrilled that Maduro is gone. (FWIW, Maduro lived inside the country's biggest military base.)

Bring in security, oil companies, and their economy could boom. Transship the heavy oil to the Gulf of America for refining?
Aunburdened
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sycasey
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Aunburdened said:



Haven't read the article, but I think I probably do not agree with this argument.
sycasey
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Aunburdened said:



I checked the article. I agree with part of it, that Trump's invasion of Venezuela is a clear violation of a rules-based international order and that furthering this kind of foreign policy basically endorses the kind of world that authoritarians like Putin would like to live in.

I don't necessarily agree that this particularly "emboldens" Putin, because . . . well, Putin already quite brazenly broke from the rules-based order when he invaded Ukraine, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to go further than a broken-down stalemate there. Emboldened to do what? The US easily taking out one of his allies means Russia looks weak. Maybe you could argue that this emboldens China to be more imperialist in their part of the world, but that ain't the headline here.
Aunburdened
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sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:



I checked the article. I agree with part of it, that Trump's invasion of Venezuela is a clear violation of a rules-based international order and that furthering this kind of foreign policy basically endorses the kind of world that authoritarians like Putin would like to live in.

I don't necessarily agree that this particularly "emboldens" Putin, because . . . well, Putin already quite brazenly broke from the rules-based order when he invaded Ukraine, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to go further than a broken-down stalemate there. Emboldened to do what? The US easily taking out one of his allies means Russia looks weak. Maybe you could argue that this emboldens China to be more imperialist in their part of the world, but that ain't the headline here.

The "rules based international order" is a joke. What rules were we following in either of the two Bush family Iraq wars? Or even the Afghanistan war? None of those countries attacked us. Powerful nations do what they want to do and quote bull**** like international law and the rules based order when another powerful nation does something they don't like. Meanwhile, we supply bombs to Israel to commit genocide. That's the real world, not the made-up world that politicians and journalists would have you believe exists.

This particular passage of the article is the hilarious part.

Quote:

If so, it will also allow Putin to take as much of Europe as he wants to bite off. Russia's hybrid warfare in Europe acts of both political and infrastructural sabotage, including suspected jamming of air-traffic-control frequencies at numerous European airports has escalated since Trump returned to office. The Trump administration's continued pressure on Ukraine has emboldened Putin. The invasion of Caracas, carried out in ways eerily similar to what Moscow had once planned for Kyiv, will embolden him further. A similar message has no doubt been received in Beijing: If Trump can take Venezuela and Putin can take Ukraine, surely President Xi Jinping of China can take Taiwan.

These ex-Soviet journalists need to get rid of their hard-ons for Putin and stop pushing this fantasy that Putin has the capability of sweeping across Europe.
MinotStateBeav
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Russia would lose against Italy, nevermind a Poland that's probably the strongest military in the EU right now. The fantasy that Russia (who's lost millions of young men and permanently injured countless others) is going to sweep across Europe is so laughable that people taking it seriously should have their sanity questioned.
Aunburdened
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sycasey
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Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:



I checked the article. I agree with part of it, that Trump's invasion of Venezuela is a clear violation of a rules-based international order and that furthering this kind of foreign policy basically endorses the kind of world that authoritarians like Putin would like to live in.

I don't necessarily agree that this particularly "emboldens" Putin, because . . . well, Putin already quite brazenly broke from the rules-based order when he invaded Ukraine, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to go further than a broken-down stalemate there. Emboldened to do what? The US easily taking out one of his allies means Russia looks weak. Maybe you could argue that this emboldens China to be more imperialist in their part of the world, but that ain't the headline here.

The "rules based international order" is a joke. What rules were we following in either of the two Bush family Iraq wars? Or even the Afghanistan war? None of those countries attacked us. Powerful nations do what they want to do and quote bull**** like international law and the rules based order when another powerful nation does something they don't like. Meanwhile, we supply bombs to Israel to commit genocide. That's the real world, not the made-up world that politicians and journalists would have you believe exists.

Oh, I agree that it had been broken before but it was bad those times and it's also bad now.
MinotStateBeav
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sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:



I checked the article. I agree with part of it, that Trump's invasion of Venezuela is a clear violation of a rules-based international order and that furthering this kind of foreign policy basically endorses the kind of world that authoritarians like Putin would like to live in.

I don't necessarily agree that this particularly "emboldens" Putin, because . . . well, Putin already quite brazenly broke from the rules-based order when he invaded Ukraine, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to go further than a broken-down stalemate there. Emboldened to do what? The US easily taking out one of his allies means Russia looks weak. Maybe you could argue that this emboldens China to be more imperialist in their part of the world, but that ain't the headline here.

The "rules based international order" is a joke. What rules were we following in either of the two Bush family Iraq wars? Or even the Afghanistan war? None of those countries attacked us. Powerful nations do what they want to do and quote bull**** like international law and the rules based order when another powerful nation does something they don't like. Meanwhile, we supply bombs to Israel to commit genocide. That's the real world, not the made-up world that politicians and journalists would have you believe exists.

Oh, I agree that it had been broken before but it was bad those times and it's also bad now.

Not for the american people, its good for us and the Venezuelans seem rather perked up too.
Cal88
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MinotStateBeav said:

Russia would lose against Italy, nevermind a Poland that's probably the strongest military in the EU right now. The fantasy that Russia (who's lost millions of young men and permanently injured countless others) is going to sweep across Europe is so laughable that people taking it seriously should have their sanity questioned.


Russia has had around 130k KIAs in its 4 year war, including around 30k-40k convicts, vs over 1.5 million KIAs for Ukraine.

Russia has the best land army in the world today, the best in the entire range of standoff weaponry, from small drones to hypersonic missiles, also the leader in anti aircraft systems. It would crush Poland or Italy in an all out war.
movielover
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Russia's now-experienced military is 1.5-million plus, while Italy is 200,000 inexperienced men, and 100,000 reservists. Likely lots of mamacitas. NATO still can't match Russia's manufacturing capabilities.

European countries neighboring Russia are looking to deploy land mines, counter to prior political positions
sycasey
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MinotStateBeav said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:

sycasey said:

Aunburdened said:



I checked the article. I agree with part of it, that Trump's invasion of Venezuela is a clear violation of a rules-based international order and that furthering this kind of foreign policy basically endorses the kind of world that authoritarians like Putin would like to live in.

I don't necessarily agree that this particularly "emboldens" Putin, because . . . well, Putin already quite brazenly broke from the rules-based order when he invaded Ukraine, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to go further than a broken-down stalemate there. Emboldened to do what? The US easily taking out one of his allies means Russia looks weak. Maybe you could argue that this emboldens China to be more imperialist in their part of the world, but that ain't the headline here.

The "rules based international order" is a joke. What rules were we following in either of the two Bush family Iraq wars? Or even the Afghanistan war? None of those countries attacked us. Powerful nations do what they want to do and quote bull**** like international law and the rules based order when another powerful nation does something they don't like. Meanwhile, we supply bombs to Israel to commit genocide. That's the real world, not the made-up world that politicians and journalists would have you believe exists.

Oh, I agree that it had been broken before but it was bad those times and it's also bad now.

Not for the american people, its good for us and the Venezuelans seem rather perked up too.

Thoughts on your comments here?

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/130345/1
sycasey
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BearlySane88
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So this guarantees no peace deal then
Cal88
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Pretty much, the Graham/Nuland plan is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. No Italian, French or German regular is going to die for Zelensky, this is just a scheme to give the Ukrainian the illusion that Europe has their back .

sycasey
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BearlySane88 said:

So this guarantees no peace deal then

Putin isn't signing any peace deal.
BearlySane88
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So exactly as Cal88 says above. It's an announcement for show and nothing more. Also pretty lame to offer to send troops after the war is over.
sycasey
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BearlySane88 said:

So exactly as Cal88 says above. It's an announcement for show and nothing more. Also pretty lame to offer to send troops after the war is over.

I don't understand. If Putin doesn't sign a peace deal then the war is not over.
BearlySane88
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" The UK, France and Ukraine have just signed a Declaration of Intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in event of a peace deal"

So they will only send troops once the war is over. If they wanted to help so badly, why not send troops while the fighting is still on going?
sycasey
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BearlySane88 said:

" The UK, France and Ukraine have just signed a Declaration of Intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in event of a peace deal"

So they will only send troops once the war is over. If they wanted to help so badly, why not send troops while the fighting is still on going?

Because Ukraine wants some kind of guarantee they won't be invaded again.
BearlySane88
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That's not my point. My point is, don't offer troops unless you're actually gonna help with the fighting. It's performative
Aunburdened
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sycasey said:



Funding for the peacekeeping force will be run concurrently with the fundraising for the San Francisco reparations fund.
movielover
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Lots of word salads; and lies by Macron.

United States supports but does not sign "Coalition of Willing" security guarantees. Time for the EU to put their big boy pants on.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

" The UK, France and Ukraine have just signed a Declaration of Intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in event of a peace deal"

So they will only send troops once the war is over. If they wanted to help so badly, why not send troops while the fighting is still on going?

Because Ukraine wants some kind of guarantee they won't be invaded again.


NATO being in Ukraine is one of the main reasons the war has been going on in the first place.

A treaty which that puts NATO troops in Ukraine "after the war ends" pretty much guarantees that the war does not end and Russia keeps driving towards Kiev and killing Ukrainian soldiers by the hundreds of thousands - and that is the point of such a political exercise by the EU.
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