tequila4kapp said:

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Cal88 said:

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LunchTime said:

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Cal88 said:

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Hehe, from my perspective it's also a bonus as the Irish tend to be more independently-minded than their neighbors across the Irish Sea, it's just that his post that I used did not have much support:

This is the weapon most likely used by the Israli Air Force to massacre over 600 innocent civilians in a Gaza hospital.

It's an American MK-84. The one that hit the hospital was equipped with a JDAM kit, is highly accurate, and weighs about 950kg. pic.twitter.com/P8M2WqkuM0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) October 18, 2023

It would have needed more context, like that provided at the bottom here:

- This is what a standard Pаlestinian rоcket explоsion looks like. 10-20 kg of explоsive is what these small unguided rоckets can carry.

- Isrаel knows the lie won't stand up to scrutiny, but the goal is to muddy the waters until anger fades. pic.twitter.com/dNLKJmP60y

— 🌽 CORN POP 🌽 (@memoryiswisdom) October 19, 2023

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What is the context?

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The context is here, the Palestinians don't have the type of rocket that matches the forensic evidence. They have rudimentary rockets with small payloads, not themobaric JDAMs with proximity fuse, which explode before hitting the ground (maximzing concussive damage in the area) and thus don't leave a crater on the ground. A plain rocket, even one with a small payload like the Palestinians have, would have created a crater on its impact.

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More cars with concave roofs…from the music festival on 10/7 following Hamas attacks. Maybe the premise about that damage only coming from Israeli hyperbolic bombs is erroneous.
?ve=1&tl=1

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You have uncovered a key fact - clearly the Israelis bombed the music festival and Hamas was framed. More Jewish guile and deception.

Within minutes of the hospital explosion, Hamas told us that (i) the Israelis (ii) bombed the hospital "building" and (iii) that 500 people died. 3 factual components.

We know for a fact the building was not damaged and there is no evidence 500 people died. So we know there are two lies. Yet people still cling to (i) despite all the evidence to the contrary.

Somehow, without any real technology or in person inspection, Hamas was able to make this very objective assessment as to what happened.

Al Jazeera - no friend of Israel - has real time video of rockets being fired in the area and one rocket failing and exploding in the vicinity of the hospital, That was broadcast live - BY AL JAZEERA. That is in addition to all of the other video evidence of rockets being fired and one failing.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/18/gaza-rocket-hospital-blast-vpx.cnn

if Israel targeted the hospital, on what basis would they send a missile with a tiny payload (which is the Palestinian theory) that was just powerful enough to destroy a few cars? Are there any other example of Israel bombing that way and missing that badly (without a second attempt to finish the job)? If Israel wanted the hospital destroyed, it would not be there. It is just nonsense.

The Order of Saint George must be more terrorist propaganda, as it's reporting itself that 150-200 Christians are dead in an Israeli airstrike.

https://orderofsaintgeorge.org/confirmed-bombing-of-st-porphyrios/

"We have just received confirmation from multiple sources in Gaza that Saint Porphyrios Orthodox Church has been bombed today... We have no word on the condition of any other of the more than 500 people being housed at the church and monastery, including the person who has been our source for most of our information.

The bombs hit the two church halls where the refugees, including children and babies, were sleeping. Presently, survivors are searching the rubble for other casualties. Our source at the scene says that they estimate that 150-200 people are dead, and that number is expected to rise as more people are found in the wreckage."

"The Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem expresses its strongest condemnation of the Israeli airstrike that have struck its church compound in the city of Gaza. The Patriarchate emphasizes that targeting churches and their institutions, along with the shelters they provide to protect innocent citizens, especially children and women who have lost their homes due to Israeli airstrikes on residential areas over the past thirteen days, constitutes a war crime that cannot be ignored."

The only democracy in the Middle East!

"Israeli member of Knesset Ofer Cassif (@ofercass) has been banned by the Knesset Ethics Committee's from Knesset sessions and meetings for 45 days. The ban was decided after a series of critical interviews with foreign media in which MK Cassif accused the Israeli government of committing a massacre in Gaza.

Below is Cassif's official response:

The Ethics Committee's decision is another nail in the coffin of freedom of political expression in Israel.

In each of my interviews, I strongly and bluntly condemned of, and expressed my deep disgust at the criminal massacres by Hamas. My political statements against the occupation and war are not statements against the State of Israel, since peace and justice also serve it and its citizens.

All Israelis are severely harmed by the everlasting bloodshed and the narrowing of the democratic space. The Israeli government is indeed carrying out a massacre in Gaza and wished for war and violence to pursue its policy. My statements are legal and legitimate political ones.

My punishment is a form of political persecution. The "government of atrocities" is bringing a disaster upon both the people of Israel and the Palestinian people, and now also conducts a McCarthyism-style hunting campaign against critical voices within the Israeli society."

Even in these difficult days I will not be silent and will continue to fight for the principles for the realization of which I was elected - peace, equality, and justice for all."

BearGoggles said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Cal88 said:

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LunchTime said:

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Cal88 said:

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Hehe, from my perspective it's also a bonus as the Irish tend to be more independently-minded than their neighbors across the Irish Sea, it's just that his post that I used did not have much support:

This is the weapon most likely used by the Israli Air Force to massacre over 600 innocent civilians in a Gaza hospital.

It's an American MK-84. The one that hit the hospital was equipped with a JDAM kit, is highly accurate, and weighs about 950kg. pic.twitter.com/P8M2WqkuM0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) October 18, 2023

It would have needed more context, like that provided at the bottom here:

- This is what a standard Pаlestinian rоcket explоsion looks like. 10-20 kg of explоsive is what these small unguided rоckets can carry.

- Isrаel knows the lie won't stand up to scrutiny, but the goal is to muddy the waters until anger fades. pic.twitter.com/dNLKJmP60y

— 🌽 CORN POP 🌽 (@memoryiswisdom) October 19, 2023

---

What is the context?

---

The context is here, the Palestinians don't have the type of rocket that matches the forensic evidence. They have rudimentary rockets with small payloads, not themobaric JDAMs with proximity fuse, which explode before hitting the ground (maximzing concussive damage in the area) and thus don't leave a crater on the ground. A plain rocket, even one with a small payload like the Palestinians have, would have created a crater on its impact.

---

More cars with concave roofs…from the music festival on 10/7 following Hamas attacks. Maybe the premise about that damage only coming from Israeli hyperbolic bombs is erroneous.
?ve=1&tl=1

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You have uncovered a key fact - clearly the Israelis bombed the music festival and Hamas was framed. More Jewish guile and deception.

Within minutes of the hospital explosion, Hamas told us that (i) the Israelis (ii) bombed the hospital "building" and (iii) that 500 people died. 3 factual components.

We know for a fact the building was not damaged and there is no evidence 500 people died. So we know there are two lies. Yet people still cling to (i) despite all the evidence to the contrary.

Somehow, without any real technology or in person inspection, Hamas was able to make this very objective assessment as to what happened.

Al Jazeera - no friend of Israel - has real time video of rockets being fired in the area and one rocket failing and exploding in the vicinity of the hospital, That was broadcast live - BY AL JAZEERA. That is in addition to all of the other video evidence of rockets being fired and one failing.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/18/gaza-rocket-hospital-blast-vpx.cnn

if Israel targeted the hospital, on what basis would they send a missile with a tiny payload (which is the Palestinian theory) that was just powerful enough to destroy a few cars? Are there any other example of Israel bombing that way and missing that badly (without a second attempt to finish the job)? If Israel wanted the hospital destroyed, it would not be there. It is just nonsense.

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Unfortunately it's not the first time, or the last that Israel bombs Palestinian hospitals, churches, mosques or schools. You're going to have a hard time trying to deny or justify all these events using blurry videos and convoluted arguments...

1,600+ year old Orthodox Christian church sheltering around 500 men, women and children is hit tonight by 4 Israeli bombs, hundreds killed. I suppose you're going to say it's the Palestinians who did it, because if the Israelis had done it, they would have killed all 500 people??

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 ☦️ Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip destroyed a the Greek Orthodox Church of St Porphyrios today❗️

There is a growing concern that numerous Orthodox Christian worshippers and Palestinian civilians who sought refuge there might be trapped beneath wreckage.

This… https://t.co/7bQ0Srrozd pic.twitter.com/YOgcM5ccWU

— Zagonel (@Zagonel85) October 20, 2023

Quote:

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CONFIRMED: Bombing of St. Porphyrios Orthodox Christian Church in Gaza City:

"We have just received confirmation from multiple sources in Gaza that Saint Porphyrios Orthodox Church has been bombed today. Archbishop Alexios appears to have been located and is alive, but we don't know if he is injured. We have no word on the condition of any other of the more than 500 people being housed at the church and monastery, including the person who has been our source for most of our information.

The bombs hit the two church halls where the refugees, including children and babies, were sleeping. Presently, survivors are searching the rubble for other casualties. Our source at the scene says that they estimate that 150-200 people are dead, and that number is expected to rise as more people are found in the wreckage."

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Survivors of the Saint Porphyrios Orthodox Church bombing in Gaza describe how Israel gave no warning before the attack and that there are still people being retrieved from under the rubble . Where’s the outrage? https://t.co/brVzUnV4Vo pic.twitter.com/vXoQ7buxn9

— Hebh Jamal (@hebh_jamal) October 19, 2023

Notice that these hospital and church bombings have been carried out at night, for maximum terror effect on the population.

https://orderofsaintgeorge.org/we-are-suffering/

the associated press published and then removed this section from an article?? https://t.co/R9ShomeyZV pic.twitter.com/BYod4lo0pH

— Patrick (@dramaticirony) October 20, 2023

Which side of history do you want to be on? What lessons did you take from the Siege of Leningrad? Acceptable and viable military strategy or horrific war crime and genocide?

Edit: Adding a related article about 400+ staffers calling for a ceasefire. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/capitol-hill-staffers-call-for-cease-fire-in-gaza_n_653198b9e4b03b213b094fe8?3k7

KPG said:

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the associated press published and then removed this section from an article?? https://t.co/R9ShomeyZV pic.twitter.com/BYod4lo0pH

— Patrick (@dramaticirony) October 20, 2023

Which side of history do you want to be on? What lessons did you take from the Siege of Leningrad? Acceptable and viable military strategy or horrific war crime and genocide?

Edit: Adding a related article about 400+ staffers calling for a ceasefire. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/capitol-hill-staffers-call-for-cease-fire-in-gaza_n_653198b9e4b03b213b094fe8?3k7

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I would err on the side of not repeating Dresden, Hiroshima, or Nagasaki

First, the cars on the upper right of the picture have concave roofs. This raises questions about the validity of your Israeli hyperbolic bomb theory.

Second, the fact Israel has done things in the past does not prove anything about this event. It should go without saying that we could come up with a list of Hamas incidences to draw the opposite conclusion.

We should look at the known facts here and draw reasonable inferences. The most reasonable interpretation of the known evidence is that the hospital parking lot area was hit by a stray faulty Hamas/IJ rocket. This really isn't even close, as there is literally video of that event happening (unless we believe that the faulty stray rocket we see in the video landed elsewhere and at the exact moment that happens Israel's hyperbolic bomb with a low payload misses the hospital and hits the adjacent parking lot).

Are we supposed to find this shocking?

Of course it is not going to happen...for the exact reasons Israel and Palestinians keep fighting: they don't want to coexist, they want to possess the land to the exclusion of all others.

But sure, let's get our shorts all tied up in a wad over something from a think tank.

This is all about the hostages, right?

How is Netanyahu handling that on behalf of the hundreds of family members agonizing over their captured relatives? Well, he's not spoken to them, then lied to them and had a friendly operative claim to be a family member, whose wife was busy screaming at Israeli families holding vigils outside of the IDF headquarters calling for their loved ones to be returned. This was never about the hostages for the Israeli government, this government does not reflect the will of the people nor does it represent the interests of the people. This is an ultra far-right, extremist government.

"In his last statement to the nation on Saturday evening, Netanyahu claimed to have spoken to those "who lost their loved ones or whose fate is unknown", but no actual family member of a hostage was identified as having spoken to him.

On Sunday he finally met a group of representatives from the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, when suddenly a man who claimed to also be a relative of a hostage entered the meeting and started praising the prime minister and saying he trusted any decision he makes.

It has since emerged that the man is a far-right activist with ties to members of the Netanyahu family but no known ties to the hostages. The man's wife, meanwhile, had organized a counter-protest outside the Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv, opposite the families' vigil. Some of the protestors screamed abuse at the forum members."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-17/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-is-petrified-of-the-hostages-families-it-could-impact-his-judgment/0000018b-3e01-d5be-a7eb-befd1bc50000

Edit: Adding a related article for more context.

And how is this extremist government handling the hostage situation? They appointed disgraced Brigadier General Gal Hirsch previously had direct responsibility as the commander of the battalion where two soldiers were abducted and killed. And how is he doing?

"Gal Hirsch, in charge of the issue of the abductees and missing on behalf of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, yelled at European ambassadors during a briefing this week because their governments supported the Oslo process three decades ago.


Ambassadors who were present at the briefing told Haaretz that they felt great awkwardness due to Hirsch's behavior. One of them said that "Instead of asking us how we can help in releasing the captives, he came to reprimand us for an agreement signed when none of us were in office."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-20/ty-article/.premium/pms-appointee-on-hostages-yells-at-european-envoys-for-supporting-oslo-accords/0000018b-4c75-d5d2-afef-ccfdbcc80000?lts=1697828537951

No, it is NOT all about hostages. It is about being invaded and having civilians brutally raped, tortured and murdered. You know, national sovereignty type stuff.

My own opinion is that the hostages are as good as dead. Not nice, not popular. I know. But if Israel intends to go after Hamas the way they say ... well, there's no such thing as a clean war.

KPG said:

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Ok, so let me get this straight.

We can't learn lessons from the Nabka where 750,000 were violently removed form their land to never return.

And we can't infer that think tanks that speak to the do the same thing to Gaza as they've been doing for decades in the West Bank, Golan Heights, and elsewhere with 700,000 current illegal settlements which exist in 279 separate illegal settlements, according to UN data. https://www.un.org/unispal/document/human-rights-council-hears-that-700000-israeli-settlers-are-living-illegally-in-the-occupied-west-bank-meeting-summary-excerpts/

None of this is shocking, and acknowledging it is 'getting our shorts all tied up in a wad.

So if a think tank is just some stupid thing, can we listen to the words of the elected Israeli Ministers? Are their words meaningful in any way?

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen,
October 18th: "At the end of this war, not only will Hamas no longer be in Gaza, but the territory of Gaza will also decrease."

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/foreign-minister-at-wars-end-not-only-will-hamas-be-gone-but-gazas-territory-will-shrink/


Former Deputy Foreign Minister, Danny Ayalon, previous Israeli ambassador to the U.S.:

"This was, this is thought out. It's not something that we tell them, go to the beaches, go drown yourselves, God forbid, not at all. There is a huge expanse, almost endless space in the Sinai desert, just on the other side of Gaza.

The idea is - and this is not the first time it will be done - the idea is for them to leave over to the open areas where we and the international community will prepare the infrastructure, you know, tent cities, with food and water - you know, just like for the refugees of Syria that fled the butchering of Assad a few years ago to Turkey; Turkey received two million of them. This is the idea. Now, Egypt will have to play ball here, because once the population is out of sight, then we can go...

I'll tell you in a practical manner what we should do, and what we can do: create, like in the past, in history, a humanitarian corridor. There there is a humanitarian corridor - and we have been discussing this with the United States - then we can guarantee in this corridor that nobody will get hurt."

Moreover, the former deputy foreign minister said everything will be "restored" in Gaza, if there is an "immediate surrender, unconditional surrender of Hamas", which Lamont pointed out was a "textbook" definition of collective punishment.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/15/palestinians-in-gaza-can-go-to-tent-cities-former-israeli-minister

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant

October 9th, 2023: "We are fighting against human animals and we must act accordingly"

October 10th, 2023: "Gaza won't return to what it was before. We will eliminate everything. if it doesn't take one day, it will take a week. It will take weeks, or even months. We will reach all places. There is no way that our brothers, our children, our parents will be killed. and we won't react because we are a state. So we understand that Hamas wanted to change the situation. It will change back 180 degrees and they will regret this"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/defense-minister-announces-complete-siege-of-gaza-no-power-food-or-fuel/

October 19th: "We are in the first phase, in which a military campaign is taking place with [airstrikes] and later with a [ground] maneuver with the purpose of destroying operatives and damaging infrastructure in order to defeat and destroy Hamas," Gallant says.

He says the second phase will be continued fighting but at a lower intensity as troops work to "eliminate pockets of resistance."
"The third step will be the creation of a new security regime in the Gaza Strip, the removal of Israel's responsibility for day-to-day life in the Gaza Strip, and the creation of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel and the residents of the [area surrounding Gaza]," he says.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/gallant-says-after-hamas-vanquished-israel-will-seek-new-security-regime-in-gaza/


President Isaac Herzog:

"It is an entire nation out there that is responsible. It is not true this rhetoric about civilians not being aware, not involved. It is absolutely not true. They could have risen up [against Hamas]"

---

First of all, 750K Palestinians were not "violently" removed from their homes. Certainly some number were and that is terrible, but the cold hard truth is they picked a side during a war(s) and they lost. And more accurately, we know that upper and middle class Palestinians voluntarily left their homes during the civil war phase of the 1948 war. And others left voluntarily during the Arab invasion phase of the 1948 war at the direct urging of Arab leaders.

But note it isn't Gazans who are saying they don't want to leave. To the contrary, Gazans are trying to move south to find safety, per Israeli warnings. Presumably they have natural human instincts to preserve their lives and would prefer to enter Egypt vs. remaining in a war zone during the war, even if it does mean acting in a way that invokes the Nakba. (It is Egyptian and Jordanian governments, and Hamas that are preventing them from moving to safety. The former are trying to preserve the political issue of Right to Return. The latter wants their human shields.)

Bigger picture, there appears to be 3 immediate paths forward:
1. Israel stands down and doesn't attack. Yeah, right.
2. Israel invades a civilian filled Gaza. Hope not, the human impacts will be terrible.
3. Palestinians somehow are removed from Gaza for the duration of the war. Highly highly unlikely, but better than option 1 or 2 IMO.

Also, it isn't 1948, 1967 or even the 1980s anymore. There is simply no way the world community would stand for Palestinians to be denied return to Gaza. Zero chance.

KPG said:

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"They picked a side during wars and lost" is doing a hell of a lot of work in your reply.

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Our preceding exchange in this thread centered on your statement that 750K Palestinians were violently displaced. You used the term Nakba, which I have always understood to be time-stamped to the 1948 wars, if not inclusive of time since then. That is the context for my sentence which you quote. Regardless of the "why"... Palestinians rejected multiple 2 state options (did you miss that in your recitation?) and hitched their wagons to the Arab states for the 1948 war. They lost.

I am less familiar with the pre-1948 events you site but I would generally observe that once we go pre-State of Israel timeframes we get into the tricky territory of "How far back do we go?" and "Who was here first?"

I also concede that Colonialism is bad; there's a reason it doesn't really exist any longer.

All good and understand where you're coming from. Talking about history doesn't change anything. Talking about whose right or whose wrong has just winded us around and around the last few pages of this thread, with a lot of the guilt falling to me on that.

I am curious about everyone's opinion of how this unfolds and unwinds moving forward. Let's move from whose the most atrocious or whose to blame for what or why to how we think this plays out.

Here is my current take based on what's happened to date:

I think Israel is in an incredibly, incredibly bad strategic position. The last ~15-20 years of status quo were bad for all parties but preferential probably for all parties than they are right now. But I don't see an off-ramp back to the old status quo.

The last 15-20 years were undeniably worse for Gazans than they were for Palestinians in the West Bank, which were undeniably worse than they were for Israelis, which is why Gaza is forcing this issue - to them, the status quo was intolerable. We can debate whether that's their fault or Israel's, but it is what it is. But Israel is rapidly moving into a very terrible, very untenable position, in my opinion, and one that I am obviously not rooting for. As I stated in the past, I am for a two-state solution along 1967 borders with a complete end and abandonment of illegal Israeli settlements. A non-antagonistic Israel can and should exist at this point in the middle east, regardless of how it got there. That ship seems to have sailed for the time being.

Anyways, right now Israel is continuing their bombing and embargo, and threatening a ground war. They've not fared well in the most recent ground war confrontations in either Gaza or Lebanon, but before, they could always just do a big show of force, drop lots of bombs, roll in, fight, declare victory, and go back behind the walls and the Iron Dome - projecting force in Gaza, and projecting invincibility in Israel. Only now they really can't do that, I don't think their population or their leaders will allow that because the latest Hamas strike showed that Israel is actually much more vulnerable and not nearly as invincible as the public and the leaders of Israel thought.

Israel's existence for years has been predicated on significant military superiority of the native population, running the gamut from over-powering to at least strong deterrence. That's in tatters right now in the Israeli psyche and the Arab neighbors see it. Given the current climate, at this point, Netanyahu almost has to "destroy Hamas".

But if they invade Gaza on the ground, it will further diminish the perception of Israeli military superiority. Even if successful, the amount of losses they'd sustain in urban warfare with ruins and tunnels is horrifying. And it would expose them on the northern front. It's not getting much coverage or play, but Hezbollah is slowly bleeding the northern front of expensive interceptor missiles from the Iron Dome. If they don't invade Gaza, they will never destroy Hamas.

So I think the Israeli preferred Plan A is to starve out Hamas, continue to bomb Gaza indefinitely, not enter a ground war that Hamas is goading them into, and refuse all humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, which will result in the starvation of tens if not hundreds of thousands Palestinians in the absence of any intervention. However, just being practical, if Hamas is in networks of underground tunnels and has thousands of missiles they've hidden in 140 square miles of incredibly surveilled territory, wouldn't it be practical to assume they've also stored enough food to last them for a few months? Hamas will continue to have food and water, even if the rest of the Gaza population starves. ****ed up? Absolutely. Condemnable and despicable? Absolutely. A reality you or I can't do much about? Absolutely. But there's also a strong sentiment in the Israeli population that allowing aid into Gaza is an admission of defeat, and Israel absolutely cannot lose their public right now, who are understandably furious at the attacks and historic loss of life Israel experienced. If aid is allowed in, from the Israeli perspective, Hamas will NEVER starve, and it's an admission of defeat and returning to a status quo that is no longer tolerable amongst Israelis.

But there is broad international condemnation of the horrors occuring in Gaza. Even amongst the traditionally pro-Israeli American public, a record number of Democrats and Independents in this country not supporting continuing to send military arms to Israel, but supporting instead sending non-military aid to Israel and to Palestine. This is a first as far as I can tell.

So the US is trying desperately to get Egypt to open their borders and allow hundreds of thousands of Gazans into the Sinai peninsula so that Israel can then continue to starve out Hamas. Egypt doesn't want to play ball, both for self-preservation reasons, and for lack of trust reasons. Egypt doesn't want to inherit a tortured population, doesn't fully trust that Israel will ever let Gazans return, and doesn't want to risk Egypt becoming the next Gaza. Besides, not all Palestinians want to leave, as they are not convinced that they will ever be allowed to return. ****ed up by Egypt? Yes. Condemnable? Yes. Anything we can do about it? No.

So I think we are in for a slow, painful continuation of this siege on Gaza with untold thousands dying by bombing or starvation. I think we are in for increased Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. I think we are in for further civil liberty degradation in Israel. I think we are in for increased attacks in the region on US interests and on Israel. I think Hezbollah will slowly but surely wear down the northern front and tens of thousands of Israelis will abandon their settlements. Short of an incredible, incredible, INCREDIBLE amount of military aid to Israel in levels that we have yet to see, I think Israel is in a war of attrition that it might not be able to win without making major concessions to reduce antagonism with their regional neighbors and occupied Palestinian population.

I'm not sure that even if they wanted to, that the Muslim world at this point would accept normalized relations with Israel. If they did, it would have to come at the concessions of Israel's settler-colonial expansionism that has been their state model for the last 30+ years. If they did, it would result in tens if not hundreds of thousands leaving Israel and would surely result in more cycles of violence, putting Israeli lives at risk.

I pray that a two-state solution remains viable but I have never been more skeptical in my entire life.

Can anyone provide a rosier outlook? How do you all see this unfolding? I am hoping and praying that in three weeks this post is dunked on, ridiculed, and makes me look like a real dumbass as better events unfold than the ones that I worry may occur.

Iraq was the perfect counterweight to Iran….until we wrecked it.

Violence, intimidation, and more blatantly illegal land grabs continue in the West Bank. Even if you're the biggest fan of Israel, stuff like this is just absolutely shooting itself in the foot, you can't blame Hamas for this one. The only long-term shot Israel has at viability is normalized relations with neighbors. It simply can't keep operating in such a belligerent manner and have any leg to stand on for peaceful negotiations, and I truly don't think Israel can just be in a perpetual state of low-simmering conflicts that boil over into wars every few years for the next few hundreds of years. For Israel to exist in anything remotely resembling a lasting peace, it must stop these settlements, immediately.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/21/the-most-successful-land-grab-strategy-since-1967-as-settlers-push-bedouins-off-west-bank-territory?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

KPG said:

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Violence, intimidation, and more blatantly illegal land grabs continue in the West Bank. Even if you're the biggest fan of Israel, stuff like this is just absolutely shooting itself in the foot, you can't blame Hamas for this one. The only long-term shot Israel has at viability is normalized relations with neighbors. It simply can't keep operating in such a belligerent manner and have any leg to stand on for peaceful negotiations, and I truly don't think Israel can just be in a perpetual state of low-simmering conflicts that boil over into wars every few years for the next few hundreds of years. For Israel to exist in anything remotely resembling a lasting peace, it must stop these settlements, immediately.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/21/the-most-successful-land-grab-strategy-since-1967-as-settlers-push-bedouins-off-west-bank-territory?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

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Israeli Settlement policy is bad. If Israel stopped the settlements, withdrew all existing settlements (or abandoned them to Palestinian control), and agreed to 1967 borders, would Hamas accept that?

No - they would not. And that is the fallacy of your position and consistent blaming of "colonialist" Israel. It is Israel's existence in ANY form and the presence of Jews that Hamas and much of the overall Palestinian people finds objectionable.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/10/hamas-is-the-symptom-not-the-disease/

From the river to the sea is not a call for two states, or even one state living in peace. In every Arab state in the middle east, Jews have been the victim of "ethnic cleansing" - and Christians too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_the_Muslim_world#Table_of_Jewish_population_since_1948

And it bears mentioning, Israel did remove all settlements from Gaza (and before that Sinai). Your focus on settlements is largely a red herring. The problem isn't the settlements. The problem is that Hamas and many others won't accept the existence of Israel under any circumstances. Yet you think settlements are the problem.