All good and understand where you're coming from. Talking about history doesn't change anything. Talking about whose right or whose wrong has just winded us around and around the last few pages of this thread, with a lot of the guilt falling to me on that.
I am curious about everyone's opinion of how this unfolds and unwinds moving forward. Let's move from whose the most atrocious or whose to blame for what or why to how we think this plays out.
Here is my current take based on what's happened to date:
I think Israel is in an incredibly, incredibly bad strategic position. The last ~15-20 years of status quo were bad for all parties but preferential probably for all parties than they are right now. But I don't see an off-ramp back to the old status quo.
The last 15-20 years were undeniably worse for Gazans than they were for Palestinians in the West Bank, which were undeniably worse than they were for Israelis, which is why Gaza is forcing this issue - to them, the status quo was intolerable. We can debate whether that's their fault or Israel's, but it is what it is. But Israel is rapidly moving into a very terrible, very untenable position, in my opinion, and one that I am obviously not rooting for. As I stated in the past, I am for a two-state solution along 1967 borders with a complete end and abandonment of illegal Israeli settlements. A non-antagonistic Israel can and should exist at this point in the middle east, regardless of how it got there. That ship seems to have sailed for the time being.
Anyways, right now Israel is continuing their bombing and embargo, and threatening a ground war. They've not fared well in the most recent ground war confrontations in either Gaza or Lebanon, but before, they could always just do a big show of force, drop lots of bombs, roll in, fight, declare victory, and go back behind the walls and the Iron Dome - projecting force in Gaza, and projecting invincibility in Israel. Only now they really can't do that, I don't think their population or their leaders will allow that because the latest Hamas strike showed that Israel is actually much more vulnerable and not nearly as invincible as the public and the leaders of Israel thought.
Israel's existence for years has been predicated on significant military superiority of the native population, running the gamut from over-powering to at least strong deterrence. That's in tatters right now in the Israeli psyche and the Arab neighbors see it. Given the current climate, at this point, Netanyahu almost has to "destroy Hamas".
But if they invade Gaza on the ground, it will further diminish the perception of Israeli military superiority. Even if successful, the amount of losses they'd sustain in urban warfare with ruins and tunnels is horrifying. And it would expose them on the northern front. It's not getting much coverage or play, but Hezbollah is slowly bleeding the northern front of expensive interceptor missiles from the Iron Dome. If they don't invade Gaza, they will never destroy Hamas.
So I think the Israeli preferred Plan A is to starve out Hamas, continue to bomb Gaza indefinitely, not enter a ground war that Hamas is goading them into, and refuse all humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, which will result in the starvation of tens if not hundreds of thousands Palestinians in the absence of any intervention. However, just being practical, if Hamas is in networks of underground tunnels and has thousands of missiles they've hidden in 140 square miles of incredibly surveilled territory, wouldn't it be practical to assume they've also stored enough food to last them for a few months? Hamas will continue to have food and water, even if the rest of the Gaza population starves. ****ed up? Absolutely. Condemnable and despicable? Absolutely. A reality you or I can't do much about? Absolutely. But there's also a strong sentiment in the Israeli population that allowing aid into Gaza is an admission of defeat, and Israel absolutely cannot lose their public right now, who are understandably furious at the attacks and historic loss of life Israel experienced. If aid is allowed in, from the Israeli perspective, Hamas will NEVER starve, and it's an admission of defeat and returning to a status quo that is no longer tolerable amongst Israelis.
But there is broad international condemnation of the horrors occuring in Gaza. Even amongst the traditionally pro-Israeli American public, a record number of Democrats and Independents in this country not supporting continuing to send military arms to Israel, but supporting instead sending non-military aid to Israel and to Palestine. This is a first as far as I can tell.
So the US is trying desperately to get Egypt to open their borders and allow hundreds of thousands of Gazans into the Sinai peninsula so that Israel can then continue to starve out Hamas. Egypt doesn't want to play ball, both for self-preservation reasons, and for lack of trust reasons. Egypt doesn't want to inherit a tortured population, doesn't fully trust that Israel will ever let Gazans return, and doesn't want to risk Egypt becoming the next Gaza. Besides, not all Palestinians want to leave, as they are not convinced that they will ever be allowed to return. ****ed up by Egypt? Yes. Condemnable? Yes. Anything we can do about it? No.
So I think we are in for a slow, painful continuation of this siege on Gaza with untold thousands dying by bombing or starvation. I think we are in for increased Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. I think we are in for further civil liberty degradation in Israel. I think we are in for increased attacks in the region on US interests and on Israel. I think Hezbollah will slowly but surely wear down the northern front and tens of thousands of Israelis will abandon their settlements. Short of an incredible, incredible, INCREDIBLE amount of military aid to Israel in levels that we have yet to see, I think Israel is in a war of attrition that it might not be able to win without making major concessions to reduce antagonism with their regional neighbors and occupied Palestinian population.
I'm not sure that even if they wanted to, that the Muslim world at this point would accept normalized relations with Israel. If they did, it would have to come at the concessions of Israel's settler-colonial expansionism that has been their state model for the last 30+ years. If they did, it would result in tens if not hundreds of thousands leaving Israel and would surely result in more cycles of violence, putting Israeli lives at risk.
I pray that a two-state solution remains viable but I have never been more skeptical in my entire life.
Can anyone provide a rosier outlook? How do you all see this unfolding? I am hoping and praying that in three weeks this post is dunked on, ridiculed, and makes me look like a real dumbass as better events unfold than the ones that I worry may occur.
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