Cal88 said:

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With a bit of luck, and pressing the home field advantage, the USMNT can put together a run like S. Korea did when they hosted the WC. Maybe not all the way to the semis, but a couple of playoff rounds.

I think a reasonable objective might be the last 16, advance beyond the group stage and win one playoff game, anything beyond that would be fantastic. What are your expectations, Sluggo and other US soccer observers?

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I think round of 16 is expected. After that they will need some luck both with the opponent and the bounce of the ball. Heat could be an equalizer.

But it is not crazy that they do not make it out of the group. Their group has no complete duds.

They will present some offensive danger, but I am not sure about the defense. They are one central defender short. Coaching will have to fill this gap. They do have some depth in the midfield, so maybe their midfielders can help more defensively than is normal.

Donovan's 2002 team got lucky. They faced Mexico in the second round. And the top teams in the tournament were just coming off the European season and were dying in the heat, while the US players were mostly not playing in Europe. The current US team is like 5 goals better than that 2002 team.

I would also say Donovan was fantastically talented, but he only learned to beat players with his speeds and quickness. He never learned the technique to beat players with skill. And that is why he was only a good player at the world level, not a great one. Maybe he should have practiced more.

He is right player development needs to get better. But that is too big a topic for a work day.

Why are you responding to his comments by attacking him for 2 paragraphs?

dajo9 said:

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Why are you responding to his comments by attacking him for 2 paragraphs?

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Because I don't agree with what he is saying. He says he has the solutions when I think he does not understand the problem. Of course he played and I didn't (at his level) so who care what I say, right? There is a culture of the older US players looking down on the current players when the current players are better. It does annoy me.

sluggo said:

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dajo9 said:

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Why are you responding to his comments by attacking him for 2 paragraphs?

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Because I don't agree with what he is saying. He says he has the solutions when I think he does not understand the problem. Of course he played and I didn't (at his level) so who care what I say, right? There is a culture of the older US players looking down on the current players when the current players are better. It does annoy me.

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Then attack what he says not his playing career. He's the best U.S. player ever.

dajo9 said:

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sluggo said:

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dajo9 said:

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Why are you responding to his comments by attacking him for 2 paragraphs?

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Because I don't agree with what he is saying. He says he has the solutions when I think he does not understand the problem. Of course he played and I didn't (at his level) so who care what I say, right? There is a culture of the older US players looking down on the current players when the current players are better. It does annoy me.

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Then attack what he says not his playing career. He's the best U.S. player ever.

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He says that he never practiced more than twice a week before he was 15. I pointed out that he did not reach his potential, perhaps because he did not practice enough. He is not reading what I wrote so who cares?

He is not nearly as good a player as Weston McKennie. Donovan did nothing in Europe. He is top 5 in modern history, which is great, certainly more impressive than anything I will ever do in my life.

Cal88 said:

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With a bit of luck, and pressing the home field advantage, the USMNT can put together a run like S. Korea did when they hosted the WC. Maybe not all the way to the semis, but a couple of playoff rounds.

I think a reasonable objective might be the last 16, advance beyond the group stage and win one playoff game, anything beyond that would be fantastic. What are your expectations, Sluggo and other US soccer observers?

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If we do not make it past the group stage it is the biggest failure ever.
Recent non qualifying in 2018 might be worse.

If we slip and take second in group and then lose straight away… that's bad but I can see it happening. As I posted earlier in this thread, we'd get second in another group.

If we win group, we can still lose in the next round but seeing as how that would be vs a 3rd place qualifier. If we didn't win that, we suck.

I think we need to win two knockout round games to feel like we did anything that matters, and that would mean beating all the teams we "should" plus 1 victory vs a heavyweight where the big boys earn their stripes.

Anything less than "convincing victories in the first four games" OR "advancing to the 3rd knockout game" and I'm like Yawn.

Advancing to the second knockout game via pks and thereafter losing is not good enough for me.

I'm sick of the mediocrity.
I don't need greatness. But the excuses are tiring.

This group has disappointed me so they would need to do more than a strong side which simply had a stumble. They need do MORE than eek by, stumble.

There's your CT emotional yardstick.

Weston McKennie, Midfielder: 1 assist every 9.1 USMNT games

Landon Donovan, Forward: 1 assist every 2.7 USMNT games

For reference, Christian Pulisic, Forward: 1 assist every 4.4 USMNT games

My prediction is the team doesn't make it out of the group

dajo9 said:

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Weston McKennie, Midfielder: 1 assist every 9.1 USMNT games

Landon Donovan, Forward: 1 assist every 2.7 USMNT games

For reference, Christian Pulisic, Forward: 1 assist every 4.4 USMNT games

My prediction is the team doesn't make it out of the group

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Let's define terms. I think Donovan has an argument for being the best ever for his appearances for the US. I think Dempsey and Pulisic also have arguments.

McKennie plays #8 and Donovan #10 or winger or striker so the comparison is not simple. I do think Donovan is the best passer the US ever had. His assist totals back up that argument.

I think he was fantastically talented and might have been another Hazard or Modric if he was developed properly. Who knows. I acknowledge his greatness.

I think McKennie in his 2026 form is the best soccer player to play for the US. That best comes from performance in European club competition. I think Pulisic is second. Pulisic started (I think) in the Champions League semifinal and scored. He was an important part of the Chelsea team that won the Champions League.

As to what will happen, small sample size, anything is possible. You could be right. I think the US is ahead of Paraguay and Australia and about level with Turkiye. That is based on the eye test. I have seen friendlies between the US and all these teams but I did not watch qualifying.

This article ranks all 48 WC teams in terms of probability of winning. Interesting rankings:
32-Australia
27-Paraguay
22-USA
12-Turkiye
7-Argentina
6-Netherlands
5-Portugal
4-Brazil
3-England
2-Spain
1-France

I think Spain will win. Or maybe I just want Spain to win, I can't decide. Both they and France are incredibly talented. I think Brazil is overrated. After Vinicius Junior and Ederson I think their squad lacks talent. I think the others rankings are reasonable. What do others think?




https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48361967/2026-world-cup-squads-ranked-all-48-national-teams-win-tournament

In Chelsea's 202021 Champions League title run, Christian Pulisic came off the bench in the final, started the first leg of the semifinal, came off the bench in the second leg, and was on the bench in the Round of 16 first leg. Quarterfinal details require matchbymatch breakdown, so I'll give you the full, clean timeline below with citations.

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Christian Pulisic 202021 Champions League Knockout Stage Participation

Final (vs Manchester City May 29, 2021)

Status: Came off the bench

Multiple reports confirm he did not start and was frustrated about not being in the XI.


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Semifinals (vs Real Madrid)

1st Leg April 27, 2021 (Real Madrid 11 Chelsea)

Status: Started

He scored Chelsea's goal and played 66 minutes before being subbed off.


2nd Leg May 5, 2021 (Chelsea 20 Real Madrid)

Status: Came off the bench

Sporting News notes he was not in the starting lineup for the second leg and entered as a substitute, assisting the clinching goal.

I think I need to get a huge TV to watch all day for a month.
Rooting for England because their It's coming home is too embarrassing, pathetic, they need a new one.

Spain works for me but they've had enough success. My friend Guillermo in Madrid doesn't like that opinion.

sluggo said:

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Heat could be an equalizer.

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Or not.

Cooling Commercial break of 3 minutes both halves, all games regardless of temperature.

Also

They will allow five substitutions during regular time at the 2026 World Cup, with a possible sixth substitution in extra time, and an additional concussion substitute if needed.
This continues the rule set used in Qatar 2022 and is expected to remain in place for 2026.

Nothing here contradicts anything I said. Other than I forgot there were two semifinals.

concordtom said:

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sluggo said:

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Heat could be an equalizer.

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Or not.

Cooling Commercial break of 3 minutes both halves, all games regardless of temperature.

Also

They will allow five substitutions during regular time at the 2026 World Cup, with a possible sixth substitution in extra time, and an additional concussion substitute if needed.
This continues the rule set used in Qatar 2022 and is expected to remain in place for 2026.

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The substitution rule is not just a WC rule. All leagues that I know have adopted it. It came out of players not being in shape after covid disruptions. I still think heat adds randomness.

Heat will cause randomness?
Well then I'm going to predict that some field will be crappy and cause a complaint.

Most of the 16 host venues currently have artificial turf. 9 will apparently install temporary grass over the plastic surface.
This can lead to seems and ripples and odd bounces due to poor installation.

UNITED STATES

These NINE U.S. stadiums currently have artificial turf and therefore must install natural or hybrid grass on top of their turf base for the World Cup:

SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles) also turf, and undergoing hybridgrass installation testing.

Artificial turf (9):

These are the ones that must install temporary natural grass:

1. AT&T Stadium Dallas
2. MercedesBenz Stadium Atlanta
3. SoFi Stadium Los Angeles
4. NRG Stadium Houston
5. Hard Rock Stadium Miami
6. MetLife Stadium New York/New Jersey
7. Gillette Stadium Boston
8. Lumen Field Seattle
9. Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia


Natural grass already (2):
1. Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City
2. Levi's Stadium Santa Clara


CANADA

Both Canadian venues already use artificial turf, but FIFA requires natural grass for the World Cup.

BC Place (Vancouver)
Currently artificial turf.
Will install a full naturalgrass system for the World Cup.
This is not "grass on top of turf" the turf is removed, and a full naturalgrass pitch is installed. Yahoo Sports

BMO Field (Toronto)
Already natural grass (with some hybrid reinforcement).
Will expand seating but does not require a turftograss conversion.


MEXICO

All three Mexican venues already have natural grass:

Estadio Azteca (Mexico City)
Permanent naturalgrass surface.
Undergoing renovation, but stays natural grass.

Estadio BBVA (Monterrey)
Natural grass.

Estadio Akron (Guadalajara)
Natural grass.

Only about half of these venues will, on average, have very hot weather, and more towards the later stages in July than the early one in June. Even in Mexico only Monterrey is super hot, Guadalajara and Mexico City have milder weather due to high altitude.

It's all about advertising. Money.


Every match has:

2 hydrationbreak ad windows
104 matches
208 total ad windows worldwide

Each broadcaster in each country sells those windows independently.


Now sum the realistic regional totals:

Region Estimated Revenue
United States $416M - $832M
Europe $150M - $300M
Latin America $80M - $150M
Asia $50M - $120M
Middle East + Africa $20M - $40M


Global total: $716M - $1.44B

This is the realistic worldwide revenue created by the 208 hydrationbreak ad windows.

It is hard to be too upset about the hydration breaks. In the 90s US networks would take commercial breaks during the game! One of the reason I love soccer is not ad breaks except halftime. A few minutes here and there is acceptable.

Except….
Soccer used to be considered a game of endurance. One of the reasons for minimizing subs is that a portion of strategy is to outlast your opponent. Games get stretched and wide open at the end, and that's when exciting goals occur.

In such an environment where men can no longer run, 11 per side works because you get goals.

In an environment where 11 can last and run, the field is always crowded and therefore goals go down.

I've long complained that the game is flawed because of too few scoring chances, and therefore contests are decided by PKs, a header off a corner. That's not a great way to determine who wins.

I know that Sepp Blatter loves that because people gripe about it. But I think that's stupid.

They are changing the game:
Replay
Subs increased
Breaks

Not that I'm opposed to those, but if we are going to adjust the game I have suggestions, too.

Increase goal size.
Shrink the box.
Reduce # of players.
Decide ties via time of possession in the attacking half or third.

Some of those might highlight individual talent and you'd get more clear cut star players rather than just big defenders who head balls away.

I even imagined a scenario where not are goals are worth the same #of points.

But my ideas would never happen, so a waste of time. I'm merely pointing out that the changes they have here increase commercial time.

Why not have subs on the fly than create a formal rest minute? I want to see exhausted men and a stretched game.

Bunker ball sucks.